For careful home user of XP -- how much riskier after Microsoft drops support for XP?

Upgrader3

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Jun 29, 2012
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For a reasonably consicientious, & careful home user [someone who maintains their system, puts up the firewall, uses a couple of different anti-malware programs properly & regularly, avoids sites their browser warns them about, etc] of Microsoft Windows XP / SP3. . .

. . . approximately how much riskier will it be for he/she to continue using Windows XP after Microsoft stops supporting Windows XP?

Has anyone come across any attempts to make statistical / quantitative estimates of approximately "how much riskier" it will be for such a home user who continues to run Windows XP after Microsoft stops supporting it [compared to running, say, Windows 7 or 8 which will continue to be supported]?
 
It comes down to security risks that are found and exploited by hackers. The longer you run, the riskier it will become as the hackers "spread the word" about these vulnerabilities. Even the government gets hacked with their protection, so anything connected to the internet has risks - but an unsupported OS opens you up to more.
 
The problem is XP is around 40% of the market. Combined with no security patches, it's a ripe target.
Additionally many of the viruses a person gets are from driveby's that a browser will not catch. I'm extremely computer savvy, and I still sometimes pick up some of these. Not much to be done about it. It will be for a long time, as too many people have this "I don't want to upgrade" attitude, whether for cost or just being cheap.

Running XP in basically every way after support is a losing proposition. If your computer can run it, at least upgrade to W7.