How future resistant are dual-core CPUs with regard to mainstream desktop applications? [I3-6100 vs I5-6500]

PinkBlack

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TL/DR : Will current dual-core CPUs (say, the i3-6100) be able to run mainstream desktop applications (not games) for another 10 years? When will the programmers who design this kind of applications (browsers, etc.) really start to make use of more than two physical cores?

My story and more specific questions:

I'm currently building a new computer, which will replace the Athlon 64 with 2 GB of RAM which I built in early 2005. I don't play any games beyond chess, and the heaviest task my computer ever sees is running a virtual machine to use some Windows Xp-only applications (I use Linux). The main reason why I'm building a new box now is because there is a new piece of highly specialized software that I need which will only run on Windows 7 and up, and I can't run that in a virtual machine on my current PC (at least not with an acceptable responsiveness). Since this software was written for the special purpose of analysing a +10 GB database of medieval Arabic texts, no alternative for it exists. It moreover runs smoothly only when it has access to 5 GBs of RAM, which probably has something to do with the fact that it was not written by a professional programmer (?).

I want my new build to be good for another 10 years or longer, assuming the heaviest task it will be used for is running Windows 10 based data analysis software through a virtual machine. I like to imagine that the utter disappearance of non-3D versions of mainstream websites will be what will force me to move to a new platform in the unforeseeable future, but since I'm not exactly an expert in the futurist department, I would like to ask your opinions on this. I already made up my mind on buying a Z170 chip-set (MSI Z170A PC MATE), 16 GBs of DDR4 RAM (2400MHZ/CL14), and a Samsung SSD 850 EVO 250GB. Although I'd prefer not to have to upgrade anything before the whole thing becomes obsolete, I chose this configuration because upgrades (NVMe SSD, up to 64GB DDR4 RAM with higher clock-speeds and lower latencies) at least remain possible.

The only performance related part I find hard to decide on is the CPU. Surely today's desktop applications rely mostly on single-thread performance and do not need more than two physical cores, so I naturally gravitate towards the I3-6100. The question that is important to me, however, is if this will also hold true for the next 10 years? I find quite a lot of discussion of I3s vs I5s or the (relative) importance of multiple cores on the web, but they are all limited to questions of gaming performance, in the next 4-5 years. Of course it is exceedingly hard to try to see further than that into the future, but some people might at least have an idea of how the programming of desktop applications will evolve, and more specifically if and when desktop software designers (browsers, word processing, etc.) will be starting to program in a way that capitalizes on the availability of four physical cores?

I already overspent a little on the RAM and Z170 chip-set, but given the fact that I want to run (relatively light) data analysis software in a virtualised Windows 10 environment, the 16 GBs and having the option of higher clock-speed DDR4 in the future (the H170 is limited to 2144MHZ) seemed to make this necessary. The question remains now if I should also overspend on the CPU and get a I5-6500 instead of the I3-6100? Their single-thread performance appears to be exactly the same, although it remains unclear if the benchmarks [urlExt=http://www.cpu-monkey.com/en/compare_cpu-intel_core_i5_6500-524-vs-intel_core_i3_6100-556]cpu monkey[/urlExt] cites are making use of the I5's Turbo-boost option or not. In multi-core benchmarks however the I3-6100 is only at 70-80% of the I5-6500. What I need to know, then, is how important multi-core performance will be in the next 10 years?

This is my particular situation, but I think all those who are planning to do a long-term build might benefit from your informed opinions on this question.
 
TL/DR. It isn't really material. Computers aren't made to last that long and the inevitable advances in "stuff" means that they become obsolete in about 4 years or so.

You're putting money into components that won't really benefit, while at the same time trying to be future-proof. It doesn't matter what programmers will do, since it's unlikely that they will be able to make most mundane things run in parallel. What is more likely is that versions of the middleware or OS will figure out that tasks can be run in parallel - as they do now.

I think the PC-MATE motherboard is cheap crap. I think your RAM is overly fast and you won't notice it.

You can, IMHO, safely go with the i3-6100. For your uses it won't matter and it will be oodles faster than your current rig anyway. It won't be fast for people running high-end rigs, but that's not you, right?
 

PinkBlack

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Thank you for your informative answer.

I know that my perspective is a little bit different from most users, which is also why I didn't find any answers on my question in the hundreds of articles available on the web. When people talk about future proof, they are talking about high end games, and they are talking about 4-5 years max. I realize that it might sound a bit silly to ask how long a low to mid end system will last, but I for one am very glad that I could use my last computer for 10 years, thus reducing e-waste. I will by the way also put a Lubuntu on my old computer and give it away to someone who only needs a browser and an e-mail client, and who will be able to use it for yet another few years.

Then again it might not be all that silly to research what mid end configuration will last the longest: my old PC had an Athlon 64, which was the first affordable 64bit CPU that was targeted at the consumer market. While this did not translate into any performance gain for the longest time, it did make it possible for me the last few years to use a modern 64bit OS. Did I not, from the perspective of wanting to use a computer for the longest period possible and thus reducing e-waste, do a good job researching back then?

The discussions that were raging back then about the relative importance of a 64bit CPU are somewhat similar to those that are going on now about multiple cores. Of course, those people who said 64bit would only start to translate into performance gains when the first AMD64s would already be obsolete were right, at least from their perspective. From my perspective however they were not: it did enable me to extend the total lifespan of my CPU with 5 years and more! But the question of 64bit computing was, even by hindsight, relatively transparent compared to the question of multiple cores: nobody doubted at the time that at least after 4 years or so 64bit would be standard. I'm not quite getting equally clear signals now about multiple cores. That's, of course, why I'm now turning to the experts for a clear view.

If I understand you well, you are saying that individual applications will never depend on multiple core support, but that there is a chance that in say 4-5 years OS's themselves might be demanding more than two physical cores because of an increased need to run applications in parallel?

Could you please tell me why you think the PC Mate motherboard is cheap crap? I'm especially interested in this because I do not know too much of motherboards brands, or how to tell if they are making durable products. My last one (10 years ago) was an ASUS Deluxe which I read good things about at the time (and which still lives, too), but I must confess I might not have read up enough on the new one I'm about to order.

As for the RAM, understand that I only got DDR4 because I still want to be able to upgrade in 4-5 years time if necessary, and I'm assuming it will be easier to find DDR4 RAM than DDR3 RAM by that time. The RAM I chose (Corsair Vengeance LPX) was simply the cheapest 16 GB DDR4 set my local hardware store offers, at 120€/129.5$ (I know that there are better prices, but I prefer my local shop over web-shops). Anyways, do you not think that I might start to notice the speed of my RAM in 4-5 years when even mundane software becomes more demanding? Or am I completely wrong about this one?

I do not know to what degree planned obsolescence has entered today's computer industry, but I do know that a lot of pentium III machines are only now being replaced, and most of them still live. Those CPUs were surely designed to last that long, but of course things might be different today. Any information on that would be most welcome. If it's not in the hardware however, obsolescence is a matter of mentality and perspective: I have great sympathy for computer enthusiast who are continually following up on the newest tech, but my personal perspective is different, and I'm hoping this difference in perspective will not stop you guys and girls from sharing information.
 


From: http://www.anandtech.com/show/9485/intel-skylake-z170-motherboards-asrock-asus-gigabyte-msi-ecs-evga-supermicro/8

MSI’s PC Mate line is a little bit of an oddball here, not being given the Gaming name. That is because it sits more in that internet café style of system or bulk office ATX design. This means separate PS/2 connectors on the rear panel, the three most common VGA outputs, a single M.2 x4 slot, two USB 3.1-A ports on the rear (the ones on the right), a basic audio codec (looks like ALC892) and a Realtek network controller. The PC Mate motherboard, despite being in the Z170 level of motherboards, is more designed to make a non-overclocking CPU happy with a set of basic functionality to satisfy users who don’t actually own the PC they are working on.

I probably should not have (metaphorically) opened my mouth to comment on your post.

It's much easier to recycle a computer responsibly than be concerned with the small amount of e-waste you may create. Over time computers become more energy-efficient as well. Modern Intel processors probably sip energy compared to your old AMD machine (I recall balking at buying a 1GHz Athlon with RAMBUS memory and instead settling for the 850MHz model with much more affordable memory around 1999-2000. That was, incidentally, my last AMD processor. Since then they AMD has been a long litany of disappointments.

Let me see how much energy I can muster to address your wide-ranging foray into a rationale for building long-lasting computers. In my Dad's study there's a 20Mhz 286Sx IBM PS/1. It still works on the occasion we power it on and its' 80Megabyte RLL hard drive still spins up and happily loads Windows 3.1 (I think). You can play any of the games, it has a version of Quicken and so forth. But is it useful? probably not. Does it have inherent value? Probably not.

When you bought your 64-bit processor, what software did it run? What software was specifically written for it? In what ways did it outperform a contemporary 32-bit machine? When did you install the first 64-bit OS on it and what OS was that? How much memory did it support? What size hard drive did it support?

Computers and processor do not evolve in isolation. RAM, hard drives, graphics cards and the ecosystem evolves in lcok-step. And it evolves a LOT faster than another ecosystem. Modern processor will have instruction sets to facilitate modern applications (imaging, sound and encryption) that is lacking on older processors. Who knows what instruction sets will be needed in 10 years' time?

Multiple cores, per se, is not the issue here. If it was possible to build an extremely fast single-core processor, that would do the job just as well - but there are many physical limitations we run up against - heat, the size of electrons and the speed of light just being a few - that makes it harder and harder to build faster single-core processors. That's why speeds today still hover around the 3.x GHz We just try and hard-wire more complex instructions so each instruction can handle a more complex task. THen, if you look at all the activity "under the hood" that a modern PC has to do, it can easily split a bits of work off to alternate processors. One can handle networking, one can handle web pages, one can play music, and so forth....

When it comes to taking the same taks and splitting it among different processors, we run into the old "Mythical Man-month" issue. You need co-ordination and co-operation and that takes time. SO it is (for instance) easy to split matrix calculations or rendering between processors, it's not so easy to compile a program on multiple cores.

Your configuration as you proposed it is unfocused. It has an motherboard chipset that has functionality for overclocking - but you don't need that with a locked processor.

Measuring the 3-4% speed improvement of faster RAM is about the only observable improvement you're likely to get from having fast RAM - the notable exception if you run an integraed GPU and that uses RAM - in that case fast RAM has a definite benefit, but then you have to allocate some RAM to the GPU, and then you probably need a bit more.

Here's an article that may resonate with you:

https://news.vice.com/article/windows-31-is-still-alive-and-it-just-killed-a-french-airport?utm_source=vicenewstwitter
 

PinkBlack

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I seriously don't see why you should be so condescending in answering me, but thank you to do so anyway.

It seems there are not too many reviews of the MSI motherboard out there yet, and I also found the one you referred to now when I went googling after your previous post. Much like your posts, the review is written in a condescending way (internet café, bulk office, basic functionality) without any serious evaluation of its features or the way they might be used. Sure it has some legacy features some people might look down on, but it would be much more informative, either from the reviewer or from you, to tell me what important features it doesn't have, or what real (that is, truly affecting performance or durability) shortcomings or drawbacks it might have.

It's interesting you should cite the still working 286 running Windows 3.1. It supports all the games I ever play (Chess, Solitaire, and Prince of Persia), and it also supports word processing, which happens to be what I use computers for the most. There are in fact some professional writers still using those machines, and why not if they're not interested in internet surfing or playing music/watching movies on their computers? They could even do their own professional typesetting using Latex if they wanted. Why not keep on using a machine that costed +2000$ in its time if it does everything one needs? The article you cite about a failing 286 in an airport is by the way highly unfair, because obviously security applications that thousands of people depend on every day are very different from individual consumers' needs. I do hope that they replace those machines as fast as possible, but I also hope they don't throw the keyboards these machines were using in the garbage can, because they surely still are in working order, and they fit nicely in a legacy mobo like ... the PC-MATE.

As for my own old rig, I have run 64bit OSs on it from the moment I got it: 64bit versions of Linux were already available at the time. Admittedly I might better have not done so because 64bit compatibility was a pain in the behind until 2010 at least, but from that time on it was actually better from a compatibility viewpoint to have a 64bit processor. The performance gain has always been small, but it sure is a good thing that the next user of my machine will be able to run a 64 OS for another few years without issue. There were by the way other good reasons to get the Athlon 64 instead of a Pentium 4 at the time: they were the first consumer grade CPUs to have an on-die memory controller that supported dual channel memory, radically reducing latency and boosting DDR1 up to 800Mhz. Moreover, their new Cool'n'Quiet technology ensured that they were much more energy efficient than their Pentium 4 counterparts. The ASUS A8V Deluxe motherboard I used supported up to 4GBs of RAM and had four SATA ports supporting RAID 0,1, 0+1 and JBOD. I had two 200GB hard drives in them and an older 80GB drive. It still had a floppy interface, but also four USB 2.0 ports. Yes, that's more than 10 years ago, but it served me well and it will serve a user with more mainstream needs and a smaller budget (a refugee) for yet another few years. I know that's not you, but that's no reason to scoff at it.

As for the rig I'm building, I will be using Intel's integrated graphics so I guess that's at least one way faster RAM might serve me well. The price difference between the H170 and the Z170 was only 20€ anyways, so I figured that 20€ should be a good deal to get the 2400 Mhz I pay for (it is the cheapest 16GB set in my store) and to leave the option open to get 64GBs of 3600Mhz RAM if that's what needed at a certain point in the future. Of course I might be wrong here, but for the 20€s I won't at least be horribly wrong. I did by the way at least need a H170 chipset because I will need the extra PCIe lanes when affordable NVMe technology comes along. There are other reasons beyond overclocking to get a decent chipset, and upgradability is one of them.

As for the CPU, I settled on the I3-6100 because I figured (not learned, since it doesn't seem to interest people) that neither the I3 nor the I5 can do more than four threads at a time, and the 20-30% performance gain in running all four threads does not seem to justify the premium price. I guess what will really make a difference is an OS that insists on running 5 or more threads, but that even the I5 won't do and I guess that when that time comes along I can either switch to a legacy Linux distro (Xubuntu has been really nice to me the last few years) or get a second hand I7.

Thank you for putting up with me, and if you answer, please do try to be nice.