- May 26, 2012
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Sorry this is long - I started watching some Direct X 12 youtube videos last night and now know just enough to scare the crap out of myself, but can't see how any of those fears could actually happen...you would essentially have to reset the PC and console markets or else Direct X 12 is just a good marketing ploy.
I know there are still a ton of unknowns, but it sounds like there is some early data coming in on the impact of Direct X 12. I've seen everything from huge improvements, not much of an improvement, to Intel still doing better, but AMD's huge core count CPUs are nearly caught up.
I saw a youtube video (techtested) as well as a recent PCWorld article that did some testing on where you start seeing diminishing returns simply on core/thread counts. The youtube video suggests 8 cores/8threads while the PCWorld article says the magic number is 6 cores. I guess the only CPU that can truly max out core/thread counts is an i7-5000 series so maybe there's a difference with that slightly older architecture vs. Skylake? I doubt it.
Now here's where I'm confused and maybe people more up on the rumor-mill can help out. I hear Zen is supposed to offer a huge number of cores/threads and be roughly Haswell-like in performance (so ~10% worse that Skylake). My understanding is Caby Lake is supposed to just be a slight improvement speed/efficiency-wise over Skylake - I haven't heard a thing about core/thread counts dramatically changing. In a world dominated by store bought computers, it seems unlikely Intel-based machines are suddenly going to start shipping exclusively with i7s. Just as unlikely is the idea Intel will some how start selling ultra cheap Celerons with even 4 cores/8 threads. Even in the world of gaming, where Steam is dominated by small indie developers still producing tons of single and dual thread games capable of running on 3-4 year old budget store bought builds and current-gen consoles that are highly unlikely to be turned last-gen in two or three years when a bigger pie of PC ports are running Direct X 12, how will any of this work?
I know there is a large portion of this community that are obsessed with cutting edge, have huge budgets for their PCs, OC and max/min everything. I also know that there are others (like myself) that just love technology, have much less time to tinker, and have children that chew up most of their disposable income. I'm hoping someone from the first group can explain to someone from the second group how exactly this will impact the roughly 92% (Steam's numbers) that are running with 4 physical cores or less. I realize these are two really early reports while I've seen other reputable people stating that the gains aren't nearly as impressive versus Direct X 11. Obviously no one knows what to believe and there is no such thing is being truly future proof. Without stating i5 or bust because potentially even an i5 could be a bust in two years, how do people see the future moving?
Personally, I imagine AMD doesn't care at all because they have such a small market share compared to Intel. I would think AMDs new minimum core/thread count will look something like the lowest of the low end are quadcores with some amount of hyperthreading. Do people really think Intel would essentially destroy the ability to clear inventory by releasing quad core/no HT Celerons/Pentiums, quadcore with HT i3s, etc? If not, does that mean Direct X 12 is mostly hype and not a lot of substance? I don't see how the market leader continually producing the same tiers of cores/threads means grandmas are going to be seeing quadcore i5 equivalent Pentiums in their $300 laptops or that a gamer dropping $200 on a new CPU will be landing even the equivalent of the extreme i7s with 8 cores/8 threads while the i7s go I guess 16 cores or something?!?! I heard AMD are trying to get a 32 threaded CPU so maybe all of this isn't crazy? But then when most AAA titles are simply console ports, wouldn't that mean Sony and Microsoft would be forced to launch their next gen consoles ASAP?
I know there are still a ton of unknowns, but it sounds like there is some early data coming in on the impact of Direct X 12. I've seen everything from huge improvements, not much of an improvement, to Intel still doing better, but AMD's huge core count CPUs are nearly caught up.
I saw a youtube video (techtested) as well as a recent PCWorld article that did some testing on where you start seeing diminishing returns simply on core/thread counts. The youtube video suggests 8 cores/8threads while the PCWorld article says the magic number is 6 cores. I guess the only CPU that can truly max out core/thread counts is an i7-5000 series so maybe there's a difference with that slightly older architecture vs. Skylake? I doubt it.
Now here's where I'm confused and maybe people more up on the rumor-mill can help out. I hear Zen is supposed to offer a huge number of cores/threads and be roughly Haswell-like in performance (so ~10% worse that Skylake). My understanding is Caby Lake is supposed to just be a slight improvement speed/efficiency-wise over Skylake - I haven't heard a thing about core/thread counts dramatically changing. In a world dominated by store bought computers, it seems unlikely Intel-based machines are suddenly going to start shipping exclusively with i7s. Just as unlikely is the idea Intel will some how start selling ultra cheap Celerons with even 4 cores/8 threads. Even in the world of gaming, where Steam is dominated by small indie developers still producing tons of single and dual thread games capable of running on 3-4 year old budget store bought builds and current-gen consoles that are highly unlikely to be turned last-gen in two or three years when a bigger pie of PC ports are running Direct X 12, how will any of this work?
I know there is a large portion of this community that are obsessed with cutting edge, have huge budgets for their PCs, OC and max/min everything. I also know that there are others (like myself) that just love technology, have much less time to tinker, and have children that chew up most of their disposable income. I'm hoping someone from the first group can explain to someone from the second group how exactly this will impact the roughly 92% (Steam's numbers) that are running with 4 physical cores or less. I realize these are two really early reports while I've seen other reputable people stating that the gains aren't nearly as impressive versus Direct X 11. Obviously no one knows what to believe and there is no such thing is being truly future proof. Without stating i5 or bust because potentially even an i5 could be a bust in two years, how do people see the future moving?
Personally, I imagine AMD doesn't care at all because they have such a small market share compared to Intel. I would think AMDs new minimum core/thread count will look something like the lowest of the low end are quadcores with some amount of hyperthreading. Do people really think Intel would essentially destroy the ability to clear inventory by releasing quad core/no HT Celerons/Pentiums, quadcore with HT i3s, etc? If not, does that mean Direct X 12 is mostly hype and not a lot of substance? I don't see how the market leader continually producing the same tiers of cores/threads means grandmas are going to be seeing quadcore i5 equivalent Pentiums in their $300 laptops or that a gamer dropping $200 on a new CPU will be landing even the equivalent of the extreme i7s with 8 cores/8 threads while the i7s go I guess 16 cores or something?!?! I heard AMD are trying to get a 32 threaded CPU so maybe all of this isn't crazy? But then when most AAA titles are simply console ports, wouldn't that mean Sony and Microsoft would be forced to launch their next gen consoles ASAP?
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