Will DirectX 11 have a good enough adoption rate?

[sgtmattbaker]

DirectX 10 didn't have a great adoption rate. I think there are only 10-15 games that use it and most of those games use it as a way just to add technical enhancements, the majority of the game wasn't comprised of DirectX 10 libraries, etc.

Do you think Windows 7, in addition to Vista, will have a big enough market share for the PC to start seeing some really advanced DirectX 11 games? The current market share, according to this link: http://www.lockergnome.com/blade/2009/09/04/windows-xp-still-holds-71-market-share/ XP market share has dropped from 77% to 71.5%, with half of the decrease being taken up by Vista, and the other half being taken up by mostly Mac OS X. Windows 7 has laredy reached 1.5% market share.

The games running the latest version of DirectX 9 are looking amazing, I am interested to see what "they" will do with DirectX 11 in the next few years. With all the talk of 3d HDTVs and monitors (some are being made so they are 3d without glasses), motion sensing cameras (Project Natal and Sony EyeToy) and other things I will be very interested in what games will be able to do in the next few years. As much as I would like to see OpenGL become the standard for games and other graphics applications I should be realistic and say that I don't think that is going to happen very soon. As much as I also wish Mac OS X, Linux, BSD, etc. would gain more market share (people going from XP to one of those) it would be nice to see Vista and/or Windows 7 have enough of a market share in comparison to XP for game developers to really start coming out with titles that aren't mainly DirectX 9. I built a gaming computer for "the DirectX 10 era" of volumetric clouds, etc. and I was sorely disappointed. Sure, there are advanced DX9 titles coming out but DX10 had a lot of potential that wasn't realized. Maybe the bits of it that are in DX 11 will be put to some good use in the next 2-3 years. If not, I don't think I can justify the cost of a motherboard, GPU, CPU, RAM and possibly hard drive and monitor upgrade.

For a cool demonstration of 3d tech check out Johnny Lee's wiimote project and the latest Sony Eyetoy demonstration. By the way, I wonder if DirectX 11 will actually make DirectX 9 games run faster?

 

[amdfangirl]

Well, Vista was generally hated by the population.

Vista = Dx10

No Vista uptake, no Dx10.

Windows 7 is polarly different. Most XP users are upgrading to Windows 7. Windows 7 is generally liked by users and the press. Direct X 11 adds a few performance enhancements and stuff.

 

[amdfangirl]

Direct X is a programming API. It's like C or C++, Direct X 11 will not run your games faster, your GPU will.

 

[gamerk316]

I take offense at the "Most XP users are switching to 7", which frankly, I haven't seen yet.

As long as XP has an adoption rate of 20%, DX9 will forever be the standard. Frankly, as DX10+ requires an entirely seperate coding path, its no shock that XPDX9 is killing DX10.

Also BTW, the ironic thing is that DX10 adoption is going relativly fast as far as DX standards go. Remember how long it took DX9 to catch on?

 

[amdfangirl]

Well, I'm saying quite a number of people I know are upgrading with the advent of Windows 7. They've skipped Vista. Either way then, Dx10 adoption will go up dramatically. Dx9 will be left in the dust.

 

[gamerk316]

^^ But again, even if XP share drops to 20%, devs need to ask if putting in DX10+ will increase sales to the point of making up for the 20% of the market they are ignoring? And for PC games, that answer is no.

The best thing is, I have a gut feeling Doom4, an OpenGL game, will be the best looking game of 2010.

 

[amdfangirl]

I'm vouching for Open GL too! It's easier to port to mac or linux.

Plus Open GL isn't limited by OS