Probability of Key Drops Over Time

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo (More info?)

Someone mentioned to me that the odds of a KEY drop was 1/34.

I am assuming that MF and Numbner of players plays a role in this

If this were true then assuming at players 1 with 0% MF
(caveat: provided I copied the numbers correctly from my spreadsheet)

After 10 runs you would have a 25.2% chance to get one key.
After 10 runs you would have a 1/4% chance to get three keys.

After 20 runs you would have a 45% chance to get one key.
After 20 runs you would have a 2% chance to get three keys.

After 30 runs you would have a 59% chance to get one key.
After 30 runs you would have a 6% chance to get three keys.

If this were true then assuming at players 8 with 0% MF

After 10 runs you would have a 93% chance to get one key.
After 10 runs you would have a 43% chance to get three keys.

After 20 runs you would have a 99.5% chance to get one key.
After 20 runs you would have a 88.2% chance to get three keys.

After 30 runs you would have a 99.9% chance to get one key.
After 30 runs you would have a 98.3% chance to get three keys.

You want to get 9 keys and open 3 all three portals

At Players 1 with 0% MF

After 170 runs you would have a 6.5% chance to get 9 keys.

At players 8 with 0% MF

After 40 runs you would have a 62% chance to get 9 keys.

If somebody explains how the MF works for this particular drop I can
post calculations for that.

If keys are dropping like hotcakes and you have some MF then it is
likely that it helps. This means that players 8 and good MF could get
the keys very quick.

If keys are dropping like babies out of a man's body and you have zero
MF and/or are soloing then get some MF and other party members or don't
waste you time soloing for the keys with no MF.

Orion Ryder

 

[Guest]

Archived from groups: alt.games.diablo (More info?)

I would have guessed that MF doesn't effect the key drop in the same
way it doesn't effect rune drops. But I suppose it might. My sorc has
around 200mf in normal battle gear I think, and in around 2 - 3 player
games she was getting a key every 3 or 4 runs, where each run hit all
three key keepers.

Roughly, I found 7 keys in 4 hours. She was running fairly fast
though. Even finding Nilly wasn't too hard as often the stairs were in
the same place on both levels. In fact, almost half the time I'd say
the stairs were towards the bottom left of the monitor from the
entrance. But yeah, maybe 25 runs all up in that 4 hours. Might have
gone a bit faster but there was talking to Short and admitidly getting
killed at Nilly slowed things down. Then there was the time taken
getting the two body parts. But yeah.

On the amazon basin I think it was, it was suggested that having more
players in the game would increase the chance of a key dropping. MF
could be the real question.

--
Ashen