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Jobless Rate Plummets

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Last response: in News & Leisure
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December 2, 2011 2:43:06 PM
December 2, 2011 3:05:41 PM

It's a numbers game dogman. They don't count the people who have quit looking for a job as jobless. The real jobless rate hasn't changed and it's around 16%.

http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6....

They also shrink the universe of available jobs in total which further artifically reduces the jobless rate.

This is not a just Democrat thing, they all play with the numbers like this.
December 5, 2011 12:36:17 PM

Another interesting aspect to the jobless numbers is the overall reduction of the workforce due to the aging of the Baby Boomers and the Boomers retiring or otherwise leaving the workforce.

It stands to reason that if the total number of person in the workforce is reduced, the overall number of person either looking for work or applying for unemployment benefits will also be reduced.

As Gamer said, it's just a big numbers game.

If the jobless rate had dropped to below 9% two years ago this would be a significant improvement and justification by Obama and the Democrats for the success of the stimulus packages. However, given this is two years too late, it is nothing more than Democrats and Obama Administration grasping at straws.

December 8, 2011 8:28:29 PM

The fact is, more people left the workforce than joined it. They eliminate the jobs that were left from the universe of total jobs thus getting an artificial positive.

Total numbers game. If you want to know the real unemployment rate look at the U6 rate, not the U3 rate that all media use and report to the public.

p.s. hooray!! i'm off probation! \o/
December 8, 2011 9:27:15 PM

From what?!??!
December 8, 2011 10:58:32 PM

dogman_1234 said:
From what?!??!



I was banned for 3 days; for speaking the truth of course!!
December 9, 2011 5:57:04 AM

By whom?

( If you say rey...)
December 9, 2011 6:04:59 AM

Of course they are going to report the U3 rate which shows the country in a better shape. That makes people optimistic and want to invest/buy stuff and shift the country to the road of recovery. I am not saying that media should not report the truth but if everyone in the country is gloomy for too long, they loose hope and society decay.
December 9, 2011 10:25:38 AM

Oldmangamer_73 said:
I was banned for 3 days; for speaking the truth of course!!


I hope your going to let this go and settle down.



December 9, 2011 11:51:48 AM

yeah sorry rey, it's the Scotch-Irish half of me; persistent, tenacious, and bullheaded. :) 
December 9, 2011 6:19:18 PM

A claimed 9.0% dropping to a claimed 8.6% is hardly a "plummet".
December 9, 2011 7:39:34 PM

Well, if the difference is statistically significant then there is some support for using the term "plummet". But we don't know whether it is significant or not.
December 10, 2011 1:31:21 PM

Pyree said:
Well, if the difference is statistically significant then there is some support for using the term "plummet". But we don't know whether it is significant or not.



Its not significant. Its fake. The U6 rate went up. The U3 went down 0.2% points because 350,000 jobs were removed from the total universe of jobs available. It is a lie.
December 10, 2011 1:37:55 PM

Yeah, got the U6 vs U3 bit.

I am just saying that sometimes in statistic, a small difference can still be detected as significant, not just some error (depends on how carefully you design your sampling scheme). In this case, the U3 before and now differs by 0.4%. That difference can be significant and not due to error and thus support a "plummet" in unemployment rate as described by the U3 definition.
December 10, 2011 3:41:47 PM

It is an error if it's a lie Pyree.
December 10, 2011 11:25:40 PM

An error is not a lie.

Error in statistic just gives you lack of support for your claim or the wrong information for your conclusion. A lie is what the politician do and it is a matter of choice. A statistician can have good statistic to support the claim, or have little evidence to support their claim. The politician can choose not to believe in the statistic and lie to the public or misinterpreted the statistic and makes the statistic with little evidence to support their claim.
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