Archived from groups: alt.games.everquest (More info?)
Is Everquest Dying?
This question seems to flood every EQ-based message forum since the
release of EQ2 and Worlds of Warcraft. Is our beloved Norrath crashing
to the ground? Are the city streets empty? Do lone adventurers stare
over the empty wastelands of a once rich and populated land? Today we
will discuss the future of Everquest and address the most difficult
question we have had to answer since EQ came into being.
Let me start with the answer. No, Everquest is not dying. But let us go
back a step further and define what dying and death are for a game such
as this. Here is Loral's Definition for the Death of Everquest:
If SOE no longer produces new expansions or new extensive content
patches, then Everquest is dying.
If SOE no longer continues to maintain the servers and we are no longer
able to go online, then EQ is officially dead.
Some might argue with these definitions. Death, being a very general
and melodramatic term when used for a description of a computer game,
means different things to us all. To some it is the destruction of a
guild. To others it is an inability to find a group. To others it is
the point when previously powerful guilds are no longer able to defeat
encounters they once were or no longer able to progress beyond current
encounters. Others use the number of people in the bazaar to determine
death or population.
But let us ignore these definitions for a moment and stick to the two I
mention above. As long as SOE continues to bring out new expansions,
our world will grow and continue to bring new challenges to our
doorsteps. We will walk with worn leather boots across lands we never
dreamed about. We will continue to grow in power, riches, and knowledge
of faraway places. More importantly, new expansions keep Everquest on
the shelves where new players find it and jump in.
With the release of each previous expansion, the numbers of active
players increase. After a few months these numbers dip back down again
until the next expansion release occurs and players come back again. As
long as new expansion releases continue, players will return and new
players will join. The quality of that expansion might determine how
long those players stay.
Will SOE continue to release new expansions? So far, yes. SOE already
began work on a new expansion. I estimate an announcement sometime in
mid-January or early February for a new expansion release sometime
between April and June. Only then will we know the nature and features
of this expansion but given what we've seen with Omens, I am quite
optimistic.
How long will SOE continue to release new expansions? SOE will continue
to release new expansions as long as it remains cost effective to do
so. While only the great gold-hoarding dragons at SOE could say for
sure what amount of subscriptions it takes to pay for new expansion
development, we can look at other MMOGs with fewer players to get a
rough estimate. Let us pick three other MMOGs with lower player
numbers. All statistics came from Bruce Sterling Woodcock who maintains
a set of subscription numbers based on company press releases and other
sources of data. Unfortunately his latest page is down, but the
Internet Archive had his statistics from one year ago which is enough
to work through my theory.
According to Bruce Woodcock (chuckle), Eve Online had 40,000
subscribers, Anarchy Online had about 40,000 subscribers, and
Shadowbane had about 50,000 subscribers. Now you may wonder why I
ignored bigger MMOGs like Ragnarok or Final Fantasy XI. I ignored them
because I specifically wanted MMOGs with lower subscription numbers.
The three games above had subscription numbers at roughly 10% of
Everquest's subscriptions. More importantly, all three of them
continued to release expansions.
Now I am jumping far out into the realm of speculation, but I speculate
that SOE could continue to fund new Everquest expansions with 10% of
the subscribers they had when Gates of Discord came out, roughly
430,000 active subscribers (source: GoD Press Release ).
So based on that obviously loose data, we can say that we know SOE is
going to release a new expansion and will probably continue to do so
for a long while. It will be a long time before EQ's population drops
to less than 40,000 active subscribers.
Now obviously the number of active players has gone down in the last
couple of months. This is due to a few different factors including the
holidays, a slew of new and excellent single-player games such as Halo
2, Half Life 2, Grand Theft Auto San Andraes, and nearly a dozen more
hot games, and yes, the release of Everquest 2 and Worlds of Warcraft.
The holidays are just about over. Those single-player games won't hold
people forever. While some may leave EQ for EQ2 and WoW, some will not.
Some will try out those new games for a while but return back to the
game they already enjoy. This will be especially true when a new
expansion comes out. Nothing brings people back like a box of new
content and features to dig into.
Server consolidation is another major topic of discussion. As the
player subscription numbers do go down, SOE may eventually consider
consolidating servers. Such a move is very severe and may end up
driving even more players out of the game. We all grow very attached to
our own world and the people within it. Most of us don't want to
suddenly get packed into a new world with a new name and a bunch of
strangers we didn't know. I would expect, when the time comes to
consolidate servers, that SOE will do a lot of them all at once. Like
ripping off a bandage, SOE will want to make the pain as quick as
possible and never do it again if they don't have to.
I wouldn't expect any such decisions on server consolidation to happen
until after the next expansion. SOE will want to see how many players
come back to EQ once the new expansion is released. If they don't see a
big jump and the numbers of active and online players remains low, then
they may decide its time to consider server consolidation.
Before considering anything as drastic as server consolidation, SOE
will want to find ways to help people find groups and help lower-number
raids find fun and meaningful content.
Change frightens us. The release of Everquest 2 brought many of
questions to every Everquest community to which I belong. Would EQ2
kill Everquest? Would Worlds of Warcraft kill both? Would our groups of
friends break off and never speak again? These are all scary questions.
No one wants to lose their friends. The answers to these questions are
much fuzzier than any single statement can articulate. Some will leave,
some will stay, some will come back, some new people will join.
Is Everquest dying? No, it's not. SOE stated their continued support
for this game many times. Our look at other MMOGs, their subscription
numbers, and the continued release of expansions shows us that even
with much lower subscription numbers, Everquest will remain alive and
healthy. No one can say for certain what will happen. SOE has very
smart people spending a lot of time analyzing these trends and even
they cannot predict what will happen in the long run. We can be
confident, however, that the world of Norrath will remain strong for a
long while.
Loral Ciriclight
loral@loralciriclight.com
31 December 2004
Is Everquest Dying?
This question seems to flood every EQ-based message forum since the
release of EQ2 and Worlds of Warcraft. Is our beloved Norrath crashing
to the ground? Are the city streets empty? Do lone adventurers stare
over the empty wastelands of a once rich and populated land? Today we
will discuss the future of Everquest and address the most difficult
question we have had to answer since EQ came into being.
Let me start with the answer. No, Everquest is not dying. But let us go
back a step further and define what dying and death are for a game such
as this. Here is Loral's Definition for the Death of Everquest:
If SOE no longer produces new expansions or new extensive content
patches, then Everquest is dying.
If SOE no longer continues to maintain the servers and we are no longer
able to go online, then EQ is officially dead.
Some might argue with these definitions. Death, being a very general
and melodramatic term when used for a description of a computer game,
means different things to us all. To some it is the destruction of a
guild. To others it is an inability to find a group. To others it is
the point when previously powerful guilds are no longer able to defeat
encounters they once were or no longer able to progress beyond current
encounters. Others use the number of people in the bazaar to determine
death or population.
But let us ignore these definitions for a moment and stick to the two I
mention above. As long as SOE continues to bring out new expansions,
our world will grow and continue to bring new challenges to our
doorsteps. We will walk with worn leather boots across lands we never
dreamed about. We will continue to grow in power, riches, and knowledge
of faraway places. More importantly, new expansions keep Everquest on
the shelves where new players find it and jump in.
With the release of each previous expansion, the numbers of active
players increase. After a few months these numbers dip back down again
until the next expansion release occurs and players come back again. As
long as new expansion releases continue, players will return and new
players will join. The quality of that expansion might determine how
long those players stay.
Will SOE continue to release new expansions? So far, yes. SOE already
began work on a new expansion. I estimate an announcement sometime in
mid-January or early February for a new expansion release sometime
between April and June. Only then will we know the nature and features
of this expansion but given what we've seen with Omens, I am quite
optimistic.
How long will SOE continue to release new expansions? SOE will continue
to release new expansions as long as it remains cost effective to do
so. While only the great gold-hoarding dragons at SOE could say for
sure what amount of subscriptions it takes to pay for new expansion
development, we can look at other MMOGs with fewer players to get a
rough estimate. Let us pick three other MMOGs with lower player
numbers. All statistics came from Bruce Sterling Woodcock who maintains
a set of subscription numbers based on company press releases and other
sources of data. Unfortunately his latest page is down, but the
Internet Archive had his statistics from one year ago which is enough
to work through my theory.
According to Bruce Woodcock (chuckle), Eve Online had 40,000
subscribers, Anarchy Online had about 40,000 subscribers, and
Shadowbane had about 50,000 subscribers. Now you may wonder why I
ignored bigger MMOGs like Ragnarok or Final Fantasy XI. I ignored them
because I specifically wanted MMOGs with lower subscription numbers.
The three games above had subscription numbers at roughly 10% of
Everquest's subscriptions. More importantly, all three of them
continued to release expansions.
Now I am jumping far out into the realm of speculation, but I speculate
that SOE could continue to fund new Everquest expansions with 10% of
the subscribers they had when Gates of Discord came out, roughly
430,000 active subscribers (source: GoD Press Release ).
So based on that obviously loose data, we can say that we know SOE is
going to release a new expansion and will probably continue to do so
for a long while. It will be a long time before EQ's population drops
to less than 40,000 active subscribers.
Now obviously the number of active players has gone down in the last
couple of months. This is due to a few different factors including the
holidays, a slew of new and excellent single-player games such as Halo
2, Half Life 2, Grand Theft Auto San Andraes, and nearly a dozen more
hot games, and yes, the release of Everquest 2 and Worlds of Warcraft.
The holidays are just about over. Those single-player games won't hold
people forever. While some may leave EQ for EQ2 and WoW, some will not.
Some will try out those new games for a while but return back to the
game they already enjoy. This will be especially true when a new
expansion comes out. Nothing brings people back like a box of new
content and features to dig into.
Server consolidation is another major topic of discussion. As the
player subscription numbers do go down, SOE may eventually consider
consolidating servers. Such a move is very severe and may end up
driving even more players out of the game. We all grow very attached to
our own world and the people within it. Most of us don't want to
suddenly get packed into a new world with a new name and a bunch of
strangers we didn't know. I would expect, when the time comes to
consolidate servers, that SOE will do a lot of them all at once. Like
ripping off a bandage, SOE will want to make the pain as quick as
possible and never do it again if they don't have to.
I wouldn't expect any such decisions on server consolidation to happen
until after the next expansion. SOE will want to see how many players
come back to EQ once the new expansion is released. If they don't see a
big jump and the numbers of active and online players remains low, then
they may decide its time to consider server consolidation.
Before considering anything as drastic as server consolidation, SOE
will want to find ways to help people find groups and help lower-number
raids find fun and meaningful content.
Change frightens us. The release of Everquest 2 brought many of
questions to every Everquest community to which I belong. Would EQ2
kill Everquest? Would Worlds of Warcraft kill both? Would our groups of
friends break off and never speak again? These are all scary questions.
No one wants to lose their friends. The answers to these questions are
much fuzzier than any single statement can articulate. Some will leave,
some will stay, some will come back, some new people will join.
Is Everquest dying? No, it's not. SOE stated their continued support
for this game many times. Our look at other MMOGs, their subscription
numbers, and the continued release of expansions shows us that even
with much lower subscription numbers, Everquest will remain alive and
healthy. No one can say for certain what will happen. SOE has very
smart people spending a lot of time analyzing these trends and even
they cannot predict what will happen in the long run. We can be
confident, however, that the world of Norrath will remain strong for a
long while.
Loral Ciriclight
loral@loralciriclight.com
31 December 2004
), Tide is an exception;
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