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The war is over! And now for the consequences.

Forum Old Man/Woman's Club : Other - The war is over! And now for the consequences.

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Sure Tikrit and a few other places still need to be wiped up, but for the most part the war is over. Which brings up the big question, what next?

The US generals state that it'll take between 2 and 6 months to install a democratic government and send the troops home. I'm predicting 5 years.

Iraqui civilian sentiment is starting to grow against America, especially as the troops do nothing to stop the rampant looting.

The US can't allow a democratic government in Iraq, for fear of that democracy turning against the US. For that reason the occupation will continue, and a new dictator will be installed.

Prediction: Just like Afganistan the US will install some mad, power hungry dictator with pro-US tendancies. Either nothing changes for the average Iraqui or else things get worse. 10 or 15 years down the line the mad, power hungry dictator will turn on the US.

If you don't believe me then look at how Saddam got in power in the first place. The US is good at war but terrible at picking governments.

The more things change the more they stay the same.

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Knowan... you're my friend. This is almost exactly how I see it.

Democracy in Iraq? Apart from the USA and Brittain the world wonders how they ever going to do that.

And Middle-East experts predict that the Iraqi civilians will turn against the coalition forces in 2-4 weeks... no wonder if it is one big mess in your country as soon as it has been freed. They also predict civil wars... what a nice results of this war.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

They can't afford to withdraw in 2 months. They have to give it time for a leader to cement himself. This is especially difficult as there is no opposition/geurilla leader with a following that they can promote. The next leader will have to build his support from the ground up, and that takes time. Especialy in a country with a large military and oportunistic generals. It wouldn't be long before a coupe took place. The only thing that would stop a coupe would be continued US military presence.

Will Kurdistan be carved out of Norther Iraq? I really don't know. The US has screwed over the Kurds repeatedly before this, so they may do it again. On the other hand The US isn't particularly fond of Turkey right now, and may allow the creation of Kurdistan in retaliation for Turkey's refusal to allow US troops in.

While I'd personally be hapy to give the Kurds a homeland, it will destablize the region. Turkey will promptly send it's troops into south eastern Turkey to pacify their local Kurds. Some sort of an attrocity will occur. Freedom fighters will then go into Turkey from Kurdistan to protect it's people. Turkey will then send it's troops/missles into Kurdistan to "root out the terrorists", and you wind up with a great big mess. Also I have no idea how the new Iraq will react to this. It'll depend on the new leader I suppose.

I don't even know if US troops in Kurdistan will be able to stop this.

The US knows this, especially since they had US, British, Kurdish, and Turkish troops all together in Northern Iraq so recently.

Of course the US is ridiculously bad at selecting new governments. They are very, very good at invading countries, but very, very bad at giving them a stable government when the invasion is over. Look at Afghanistan, look at every post-Korean war where US troops were involved. Either things wound up worse or just the same.

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Knowan likes you. Knowan is your friend. Knowan thinks you're great.

Reply to knowan

The US is not going to select a government. The Iraqis will have to vote for one.

<font color=red>GOD</font color=red> <font color=blue>BLESS</font color=blue> <font color=red>AMERICA</font color=red>

Reply to dhlucke

Yeah right. And I have a bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in.

Sure that's the eventual plan, but what about the intrim government? How long with that intrim government rule? Who will select the members that the Iraquis can vote for? Will the US/Britan let the Ba'ath party run candidates? What if one of Saddam's sons gets himself elected?

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Knowan likes you. Knowan is your friend. Knowan thinks you're great.

Reply to knowan

Quote :

Democracy in Iraq? Apart from the USA and Brittain the world wonders how they ever going to do that.


Watch and learn, baby.

The only thing that could fock it all up is if we let the U.N. get involved in the nation-building aspect. Let them help out with reconstruction and humanitarian efforts, but let them keep their thumbs out of the plum pie.

The world is going to figure out that the U.S. can accomplish just about anything given time and a little commitment. The naysayers are just clots in the artery of progress. Some way, some how, the Middle East has GOT to get yanked into the 21st century. Let them hate us. They already hate us. What has diplomacy gotten us?

At least now they will fear us. Why do you think North Korea suddenly wants multi-lateral discussions? Why do you suppose Syria is sweating?

Because we said we were going to do something, and we did it. It's the total opposite of the way the U.N. does things.





<-----Insert witty sig line here.

Reply to Twitch

The bathe party is over and his sons will be killed or arrested.

<font color=red>GOD</font color=red> <font color=blue>BLESS</font color=blue> <font color=red>AMERICA</font color=red>

Reply to dhlucke

Unless they escape into syria

<b>True Class: Just roll her over and do her doggy style. And put a laptop on her back and tell us what its like live on irc.</b>
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Reply to lhgpoobaa

Sure. But they won't be running for office.

<font color=red>GOD</font color=red> <font color=blue>BLESS</font color=blue> <font color=red>AMERICA</font color=red>

Reply to dhlucke

Heh, I don't think the election of one of Saddam's sons or brothers to office is something we have to worry about any more.

War Eagle

Reply to Auburn9698

True... but they can still be trouble...
Access to lots of hidden funds and contacts to stir up dissent and cauze mayhem from exile.


<b>True Class: Just roll her over and do her doggy style. And put a laptop on her back and tell us what its like live on irc.</b>
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Reply to lhgpoobaa

Actually here's a question. Lets say that Urday or one of Saddam's soms/brothers is captured. Not killed mind you but captured. Then what? What do they do with him?

What crime do you charge him with? What court do you try him in?

UN war crimes tribunal? What are the war crimes? Do you really think that the UN will find him guilty of anything?

Try him in the US or Britan? What law has he broken?

Just jail him indefinatly? Would the US do that? Would Britan?

The only real option is to hand him over to the Iraquis and let them deal with him. How would the intrim government or an elected Iraqui government deal with him?

No, you can't afford to take him alive. Especially when the worst that can be said of him is that he's Saddam's son or brother and a Bathe party member.

I mean think about it for a minute. Would you arrest the brother/son/wife of Charles Manson simply because they are the brother/son/wife of a mass murderer? Would that hold up in court?

So if Saddam's son or brother is captured eventually he will have to be let go. Once he's let go then in a democratic society he has the right to vote and to run for office.

Of course in all likelyhood if he is captured he'll be held for questioning for awhile and then released into Iraqui custody, where he'll be tried on some trumped up charges and executed. But if he's not executed then there's a chance that he could become the next elected leader of the Iraqui people. Not a good chance mind you, but a chance none the less.

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Knowan likes you. Knowan is your friend. Knowan thinks you're great.

Reply to knowan

Hang on, there's no way you can use the Charles Manson analogy becuase it has no bearing on this situation. Charles Manson's brother or son, (if he has any, I don't know) probably wouldn't want anything to do with him, and would probably be a normal person working a regular job. There is no link to this topic at all.

Now onto Saddam's son's. Most were part of his cabinet and ran apsects of the military. So if the people who were murdered and tortured by soldiers of his regiment and their relatives found, then instantly they would face charges of crimes against humanity. His son's are equally as guilty as him. I can't beleive that you are trying to portray them as innocents to some degree.

<font color=blue>"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass. And I'm all out of bubblegum" - Roddy Piper</font color=blue>

Reply to RobD

An "unfortunate accident" would suffice.

War Eagle

Reply to Auburn9698

Quote :

No, you can't afford to take him alive. Especially when the worst that can be said of him is that he's Saddam's son or brother and a Bathe party member.



Quite the opposite...Putting Saddam or his sons on trial for the world to see would be very theraputic for the Iraqi nation they terrorized. As far as charging them with crimes, I'm sure they could get enough witnesses and victims of the regimes brutality to come up with an indictment. As for running for office and winning? That's hard to do when your rotting in an Iraqi jail. Remember what Isreal started to doing after they became a nation? Suddenly Nazi exiles around the world were turning up dead. I believe that the Iraqi people would have a similar compunction to mete out their own brand of justice...and more power to them. I think that most liberal people evalutate the Iraqi people in the same way they see the rest of the world...they sell them short. They are not helpless imbeciles. Given the opportunity, they will work things out. We've now provided that opportunity. Their nation won't be perfect, but whose is? They are fairly secular for an Arab nation, they have the second largest oil reserves in the world, they have a literacy rate of >80%, and they have the US/UK as an ally. Those are good things to build on if you ask me.


Any man can withstand adversity...The true test of character is to give a man power <i>Abraham Lincoln</i>

Reply to Grub

Quote :

No, you can't afford to take him alive. Especially when the worst that can be said of him is that he's Saddam's son or brother and a Bathe party member.



It's been said that his sons are worse than him. He'd be charged with murder, rape, torture, etc etc...

<font color=red>GOD</font color=red> <font color=blue>BLESS</font color=blue> <font color=red>AMERICA</font color=red>

Reply to dhlucke

If even 10% of what I've read about those guys is true, they're pretty sick mofos.

War Eagle

Reply to Auburn9698

True, especially Urday, who is likely quite insane.

What I'm trying to get at is IF there are truely free elections and IF there is no US/British interferance and IF its the remnents of the Bathe party that gets elected (which is a possibility if the elections are truely free)and IF Saddam's sons are captured alive and turned over to the Iraquis/UN for prosecution and IF they are then turned loose with nothing but a slap on the wrist THEN MAYBE there is a CHANCE that they could wind up getting elected. Stranger things have happened.

Like I said, you can't really afford to take them alive. And if you do manage to take them alive you sure as hell aren't going to turn them over to the Iraquis/UN.

Anyway, there's precious little chance of that happening now. The colition forces have just released their plans for the interim government <A HREF="http://www.hispeed.rogers.com/news/iraq_war/story.jsp?cid=7041504AU" target="_new">http://www.hispeed.rogers.com/news/iraq_war/story.jsp?cid=7041504AU</A>

here's a few quotes:

"Will we get a complete government in place in that time [3 to 6 months]? I doubt it," Cross said. "One has to go through the process of building from the bottom up, allowing the leadership to establish itself, and then the election process to go through and so forth. That full electoral process may well take longer."

and:

"the Americans have outlined what Garner's administration would look like: Each ministry would be headed by an American, either military or civilian. Each minister would have two American deputies and eight American advisers, plus four Iraqi advisers from inside the country and four Iraqi exiles."

So as I said at the begining of this thread, there is precious little chance of free elections anytime in the near furture. The Interim government will last for a few years and the first election will be controlled.

And that is as it should be. If I was in charge of it I wouldn't do it any other way, except possibly giving the British a bit more control as well (that way you can possibly shift some of the blame/resentment off onto the British). You can't just take out the local power structure and not control what takes its place, otherwise there's too great a chance that you'll be going back in there again in a few years. You have to control who is given power and when, get the poipulation used to these new rulers, have them forget their old loyalities. Otherwise you get anarchy.

And if there truely are free elections who are you going to vote for, the guy who's always been in power and who's name you know or the Iraqui exile who ran away when things got tough? Better the devil you know that that one you don't.

It's just common sense. Like I said if I was in charge then I would do the exact same thing.

Further predictions: The Kurds won't get their oilfields. You'll just annoy too many people if you start giving the Kurds power now. They might just as well face facts that just like in Desert Storm they will be used and then cast aside. That's one thing I might like to see change if I was in charge, but it looks like people are just too worried about how the Turks will react, and too worried about trying to control 2 different governments with oil reserves instead of just one.

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Knowan likes you. Knowan is your friend. Knowan thinks you're great.

Reply to knowan

I will watch and probably learn nothing... just like from Afghanistan.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

I'm hoping they did learn something from Afghanistan but only time will tell. You must admit though that the cards are stacked against the Americans ever getting a long term US-friendly government in Iraq. Really their only chance for stability, or at least the kind of stability they want, is long-term occupation. Of course long-term occupation is expensive, and I'm not just talking about money. Actually I'm talking about money least of all.

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Knowan likes you. Knowan is your friend. Knowan thinks you're great.

Reply to knowan

Quote :

I will watch and probably learn nothing... just like from Afghanistan.


There is ALWAYS something to be learned from every experience. If you do not learn something from an experience, it is because you CHOOSE not to learn from the experience.

If you ask the U.S. Government or the Afghanistan Government was was learned from Afghanistan, I am sure that they can give you a nice long list of lessons learned.

<font color=blue> Computer fans are really cooling fans for the user. When they run, the user is cool, but whenever they break, the user starts sweating!! </font color=blue>

Reply to Groveling_Wyrm

Okay I should've say: and I will learn how to do it wrongly.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

Why is it wrong? So everything the US did is wrong?

<font color=blue>"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass. And I'm all out of bubblegum" - Roddy Piper</font color=blue>

Reply to RobD

Forget it. It's a waste of your time. It's easy to point out mistakes, but it's not easy to fix them. I mean have you actually heard him give any constructive ideas? No you haven't. Why? Cause he gets off on making people mad. He's the king of the world in his own little mind, and no matter what anyone else does it's wrong. It's wrong period. We should all overthrow our government and then live like the dutch. That would solve all of the world problems. Because the dutch are the smartest muddafuckers in the world. Hell they don't even have to read things to know them, they just know them. No matter what personal or learned experience you have it doesn't compare to dutch news sources. The dutch are the sh|t. They're just waiting for the right moment to take over the world.

<A HREF="http://forums.btvillarin.com/index.php?act=ST&f=41&t=324&s=58e94ba84a16bedfebbf0f416d5bac48" target="_new">I reckon all women should learn how to do an engine re-build so they can get the right to vote.</A>

Reply to Yahiko81

Dude, I know you're right. I keep saying I won't reply, and like you say, he makes me mad and I go at it again thinking that my reasoned and rational argument will prevail, but no. Fu c k it.

<font color=blue>"I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass. And I'm all out of bubblegum" - Roddy Piper</font color=blue>

Reply to RobD

Do you mind if I quote any of that for my sig?

<font color=red>GOD</font color=red> <font color=blue>BLESS</font color=blue> <font color=red>AMERICA</font color=red>

Reply to dhlucke

LOL!

Any man can withstand adversity...The true test of character is to give a man power <i>Abraham Lincoln</i>

Reply to Grub

Why learn that which you have a firm grasp of already?



I see a return to the "What suggestions do you (Svol or any anti-war type) have for the situation?"

None as usual. Leave to kill each other. No big deal every other day, except when it's at the hand of a coalition member. Doing nothing is great until it's your turn, and if everyone lives by your rules, no-one will help.






Luck!




<b><font color=blue>~ <A HREF="http://forums.btvillarin.com/index.php?act=ST&f=41&t=324&s=58e94ba84a16bedfebbf0f416d5bac48" target="_new">System Specs</A> ~<font color=blue></b> :wink:

Reply to camieabz

Go for it. I don't mind.

<A HREF="http://forums.btvillarin.com/index.php?act=ST&f=41&t=324&s=58e94ba84a16bedfebbf0f416d5bac48" target="_new">I reckon all women should learn how to do an engine re-build so they can get the right to vote.</A>

Reply to Yahiko81

Well I won't call the form of control Afghanistan now has a democratic succes. And if Iraq turns into a civil war I wont see that as a good result either.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

What a rant.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

Give it time, svol. We're talking about a county that is still largely in the stone age. People living in caves and mud huts. It's nuts to expect changes to happen as fast in places like Afghanistan as they do in others.

War Eagle<P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1><EM>Edited by Auburn9698 on 04/17/03 10:37 AM.</EM></FONT></P>

Reply to Auburn9698

Why thank you.

<A HREF="http://forums.btvillarin.com/index.php?act=ST&f=41&t=324&s=58e94ba84a16bedfebbf0f416d5bac48" target="_new">I reckon all women should learn how to do an engine re-build so they can get the right to vote.</A>

Reply to Yahiko81

Svol, you've managed to anger the greater portion of the regulars here at THG. You see a pattern forming? Do you think that MAYBE, just MAYBE, you could be the one who has the wrong ideas?

<font color=blue> Computer fans are really cooling fans for the user. When they run, the user is cool, but whenever they break, the user starts sweating!! </font color=blue>

Reply to Groveling_Wyrm

LOL... maybe the rural areas... the cities (where the majority lives) are pretty advanced for that part of the world.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

Greater portion? The only one that seems to be really angered is DHLucke... Yahiko81 is probably joking. And I can get along perfectly with the others outside this thread.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

I tried telling him the same thing weeks ago. But he dosen't listen . It is useless with him.

I aint signing nothing!!!

Reply to Rick_Criswell

"...for that part of the world"

EXACTLY

Thanks for the help in proving my point, svol. You must not be that bad a guy, after all.
War Eagle<P ID="edit"><FONT SIZE=-1><EM>Edited by Auburn9698 on 04/18/03 09:06 PM.</EM></FONT></P>

Reply to Auburn9698

You would never make it on survivor or any of the reality shows. They'd vote you off in a heartbeat.

<font color=red>GOD</font color=red> <font color=blue>BLESS</font color=blue> <font color=red>AMERICA</font color=red>

Reply to dhlucke

Exactly what I want... I hate reality shows.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol

LOL that is true they aren't very advanced. But compared to Africa (where alrge parts really live in the stone age) they're pretty advanced. And compared to Europe, Asia and America they're just a couple of decades behind.

My dual-PSU PC is so powerfull that the neighbourhood dims when I turn it on :eek:

Reply to svol
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