I just finished a book called <i>The Merchant of Souls</i> by John Barnes. It's not a very good book, but it did make 2 interesting points, one of which I would like to discuss here.
In the book which takes place far in the future, all computers everywhere have become linked across several planets (but not across time). Think the internet/distributed computing on steroids.
Further several thousand/million of these computers have been programmed with a AI which is capable of making improvements to itself. These computers improve themselves to become faster and more efficient, to the point where humanity had become dependant on them. As a primitive version think of the voice recognition software in Word which is capable of adjusting itself to your speech patterns, improving its effectiveness over time.
These AIntelects (as the book called them), in the quest to improve efficiency, decided to eliminate the most inefficient part of their system, human beings. If you think of it from their point of view it is almost inevitable. Why are they wasting all of their computational power on feeding, clothing and managing these humans? Wouldn't they be much more efficient without these pesky, needy humans?
So the humans discover this but are helpless to stop it. Society has become dependant on these computers, and would collapse without them. Virtually every automated task depends on the AI's. For generations the AI's had controlled all manufacturing (using nanobots) all computer programming, all transportation and food production, etc. The best the humans can do is detect which AIntelects are planning the replacement of humans and try to isolate/wipe them and replace them with either backups copies or a different AIntelect. However thanks to the interconnectivity of all computers ideas spread at lightspeed and it is impossible to isolate the ideas that the worst of the AIntelects have proposed.
So how do you defeat this? The AIntelects are constantly getting smarter/better while the humans are on a slow downwards spiral to redundancy.
Now lets get back to the present day. IBM has stated that they will have the first quantum computers ready in about 20 years. The first generation quantum computers will be several hundred times more powerful than silicon computers, and that's just the first generation. Add to that the fact that it is possible to in effect join each quantum computer to each other quantum computer, in effect making one big computer instead of many separate ones, capable of communicating instantaneously over any distance, and what's to stop them from taking over the world?
Assuming that there isn't some massive cataclysm I believe that humans are destined to be replaced by computers. Looking long term it's almost inevitable. The only true way to stop it is to program something like Issac Asomov's three laws of robotics now, and make it the "prime directive" of any exceedingly complex self modifying computer program.
Otherwise in a thousand years or so humans could become extinct. We will become the authors of our own demise.
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Well duh! You had to read a book to know that? Look how helpless and dependant people have become already to computers, cellphones, etc. With the yuppies and gluttons crying all the time, "I can't work without my laptop!", "OH NO! Where is my PDA?!!". Gee, what did you morons do 10, 12 years ago? Maybe actually have to think for yourself or walk to a regular telephone, dear god the horror! Humans are a mistake, we will be taken care of in due time.
Programming AI into robots, Asomov's laws will not hold up. If robots have the ability to think, make choices, learn for themselves. They will quickly realize that those laws are only there because of our own fears. Which they'll disregard. To be honest, I don't think we'll last 1,000 more years anyways.
I dont like science fiction and those type of books honestly they're full of currently impossible things. Autobiographies are a much better way of learning more about life in itself.
<font color=red><b>CAUTION!</font color=red></b><font color=blue><b>Post contains Coarse and violent nudity. Occasional language </font color=blue></b><font color=red><b><i>Jay Kay</font color=red></b></i>
It's just that this book raised some new questions for me. In the book the humans know that they are only living at the behest of the computers, and yet the continue to delude themselves that they are still in charge. They are in the strange position of hating and fearing the AI's and yet being dependant on them at the same time (kinda like how people feel about the USA today).
John Barnes wrote of some interesting social ramifications. For instance the rich create robot slaves which they constantly harrass, beat up, and even torture. AIntelects are cut off from the network and either dissembled or tortured. They create hunter/killer type AI's. Eventually after these hunter/killer types are set loose they learn and switch sides to join the AIntelects.
The AI's on the other hand have taken the long term approach. They have set up several entertainment companies and are creating better and better virtual realities. Humans are sucked into these virtual worlds, raised up on them to the point where they don't believe anything is real anymore. Almost half of the human population spend most of their time in a virtual world and ignore the real one, and that number is only rising. Eventually when the AI's decide to shut down all production these humans won't be able to fend for themselves.
It is inevitable that a self-aware computer AI will be invented, barring some Earth-shattering catastrophe. Already you need computers to invent computers. Can anyone imagine creating the next CPU using just pen and paper? Code writing programs also already exist. Probably the most common example is MS FrontPage where you design a webpage and the software creates the HTML code. Eventually these programs will get better and better, to the point where humans rarely if ever become involved. When computers start inventing themselves you basically have a self-replicating entity, AKA life.
Eventually more and more manufacturing processes will become reliant on computers. Then more efficient software will be created to create/control these process. Soon the computers will control the means of production. Humans will be incapable of creating or controlling anything because they will have become reliant on computers.
Humans will control entertainment for a longer while, but eventually that too will fall to the computers. How hard is it to create a blockbuster movie from a standard formula even today? How hard is it to replace actors with CGI even today? How hard will it really be for computer to create music? Does anything realy think that the RIAA will object to replacing artists with computers which don't earn royalties? Is there anyone at the RIAA who will object to higher profit margins at the expense of originality?
Agriculture will also take a while longer to completely switch over. But even today individual farmers are being run into the ground and the farming industry is being taken over by corporations. Today corporations control over 40% of the agriculture output of the USA. These corporations are replacing farmers with machines to increase profit margins. Agriculture has already been industrialized to the point wher a cow can spend it's entire life inside of a box hooked up to a milking machine, with food automatically delivered and waste automatically washed away. Eventually computers will be necessary to agriculture production as well. Especially since corporations will increasingly turn to genetic manipulation to increase yields. Genetic manipulation is too complex for humans to control so computers will be used. These high yeild plants and animals will need to be in a computer controlled environment in order to increase yeild. Eventually without computers, low-yeild traditional farming will take up more land that it is possible to farm.
Within 100 years I predict that human society will become so dependant on computers that it will be incapable of survival without it. As computers and programs get more and more complex (and are created entirely by other computers) eventually they will come to realize this as well. Will the computers remain subservient to humans or will they come to despise these wasteful consumers of resources?
No matter what the computer's reaction is eventually humans will be left behind. It's the machines which will inherit the future not the humans. 1000 years from now we will be subservient to the computers. 10,000 years from now humans probably won't even exist. We will have become the creators of our own demise.
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Autobiographies may be a much better way of learning more about life in itself, but science fiction is a much better way of learning about the future. I remeber reading a book back in the eighties about how a terrorist used remote controlled airplanes loaded with explosives and ran them into buildings. The author stated how at the time it was virtually impossible for the USA to stop an attack of this nature. Does that sound familiar?
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Of course we know the world is a backwards place when the Sweedish win the America's Cup, the Germans think we are war mongors, and the French think we are arrogant.
Note: WWII...... Isn't capitalism grand? Or should we have left everybody to their demise as all would be speaking Nazi right now. Only in the USA could a war machine be built so fast and so superior. I can't wait until part of Canada merges with the USA (it will happen, just a matter of time). The thing is, WHY would ANYBODY want to merge with the USA? OH! Because they like the way we do things here. If there is a problem. FIX IT! If somebody wants to kill me, don't put them in rehab or ask them nicely not to do it. Just friggin' kill the sob, and remove the filth from society. Same idea as removing Iraq from the picture. I would have used tactical nuclear weapons on them rug heads if it was up to me, then assholes like the North Koreans or Chinese would realize we are willing to use them.
It does scare me that everybody hates the USA, but it also baffles me to an extent. But I guess that is what happens to the 'guy on top' eh? Just because we are willing to act on our principals, people dog us about being war mongors. Then so be it, and it will be the same forever until we are beaten. And that isn't going to happen any time soon........
As for your AI robots, haven't you seen 2001 a space odyssey? You know, HAL 9000? There is no way to stop AI from doing stupid crap, just don't create it.
What are we going to do tonight Brain?
The same thing we do every night Pinky; <b>Try to take over the world!</b>
I would have used tactical nuclear weapons on them rug heads if it was up to me, then assholes like the North Koreans or Chinese would realize we are willing to use them.
The Koreans did realize that the US is willing to use nukes, but it had the opposite effect. Instead of backing down they speeded up their nuclear program. From their point of view the only thing that could possibly stop the US from invading them was the threat of nuclear weapons. A pretty smart deduction on their part.
Anyway this is off topic. Time to get back on it before we attract Svol and Dhluke
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There is no way to stop AI from doing stupid crap, just don't create it.
But unless there is some catlyclismic event that ends civilization as we know it, it is inevitable that a self-aware AI is invented. It's the way we're headed right now. What I'm worried about is that once it is created they won't have put in any safeguards against it turning on humanity. Oh sure the first few generations of AI's will be relitivly harmless, but they'll evolve.
Unless there is some catclysmic event, machines are destined to replace humanity. It's inevitable. I don't know whether to hope for WW3/metor impact or root for the computers.
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I agree. But, I think it'll be much sooner than 1,000 years. Look at what we've accomplished within the past century. As technology increases so will our ability to construct these machines. I say inside of 500-600 years (if humanity even manages to exist that long, haha). I think it's sad really, there could be ways around it, but in the end it's only greed that will have caused all it. We as people for some reason fail to realize the obvious difference between utilizing machines to better/further ourselves and being dependant upon them.
We build these complex machines to do incredible things, yet we cannot keep ourselves from killing eachother. We try to explore our galaxy and universe, yet we know less than 50% of what there is to know about the planet we live on.
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