Bush Giving Democrats Momentum

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Support of Bush reaches a new low and support for the Democrats is 6% higher
than for the republicans which is a 4% increase. If this trend continues the
repubs won't be able to steal another election.

Bush Approval at 44%
Lowest measurement of his presidency

by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup Poll finds a decline in George W. Bush's job
approval rating. After standing at 49% approval in the prior two CNN/USA
Today/Gallup polls conducted this month, now just 44% of Americans say they
approve of Bush, a new low mark for the president. The poll also shows a
drop in Bush's favorable rating to 48%, which is the first time it has
dropped below 50% since Gallup began tracking this opinion in 1999. Four in
10 Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the country,
which is essentially unchanged from early July. The poll shows continued
positive momentum for the Democratic Party in terms of national party
identification and ratings of the two major political parties, both of which
were evident before the drop in Bush approval occurred.

The July 25-28 Gallup Poll finds 44% of Americans approving and 51%
disapproving of the job Bush is doing as president. Bush's prior low
approval rating was 45%, which occurred once in March and once again in June
of this year.



Bush had been at 49% approval in the first two July polls, which represented
an improvement over where he stood in late June. To a large degree, then,
the decline observed in the new poll could simply represent a fading of a
short-term boost to Bush's public standing. His higher July numbers may have
been a product of the increased focus on terrorism following the London
terror attack on July 7 and an attempted attack on July 21, as well as the
attack in Egypt on July 23. Both July polls were conducted in the immediate
aftermath of those attacks (July 7-10 and July 22-24). Also, Bush's
selection of John Roberts as Supreme Court nominee on July 19 has been well
received by the public, but any boost in support from that would likely be
short-lived.

A closer look at the data reveals that Bush's recent approval ratings were
higher because of independents' more positive evaluations, which have now
returned to their late June levels. Republicans' and Democrats' evaluations
of Bush have been more stable in recent weeks.



The more negative evaluation of Bush is not confined to his approval rating.
Just 48% of Americans now say they have a favorable opinion of him, while
50% have an unfavorable view. Bush's previous low favorable rating was 51%,
measured twice last October (Bush also had a 51% favorable rating in a
September 2000 poll of registered voters).



Bush's prior favorable rating -- from April -- was 54%. At that time, he had
a 48% job approval rating.

Even while Bush's ratings are falling, other core Gallup ratings show more
stability.

For example, 40% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in
the country, and 58% are dissatisfied. In early July, 42% were satisfied and
57% dissatisfied.
Ratings of the national economy also show little change. In early July, 36%
said economic conditions were excellent or good and 18% said poor.
Thirty-five percent said the economy was getting better and 54% said worse.
Now, 32% rate the economy as excellent or good (23% as poor) and 35% say it
is getting better and 53% say getting worse.
While the Iraq war could be responsible the general descent into the
mid-to-high 40% approval range for Bush over the last two years, there has
been little change in the public's views on Iraq in recent polls to suggest
it is behind Bush's current rating. The July 22-24 poll showed fewer
Americans (46%) calling the war in Iraq "a mistake" than did so in June
(53%).
Democrats Faring Better

Recent Gallup Polls have shown growing positive momentum for the Democratic
Party, even while Bush's ratings were somewhat higher. For example, the July
22-24 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found 52% of Americans rating the Democratic
Party favorably, while just 46% give a favorable rating to the Republican
Party. When the question was last asked in April, each party was rated
favorably by 50% of Americans.

Additionally, Gallup has observed a consistent edge for the Democrats in
terms of national party identification in its recent polls. In the current
poll, 33% say they are Democrats, 28% Republicans, and 37% independents.
This is the fourth consecutive poll in which Democrats have outnumbered
Republicans in Gallup Polls.

Party Identification, Recent Gallup Polls


% Democrat
% Republican
% Independent


July 25-28
33
28
37

July 22-24
36
32
31

July 7-10
35
30
33

June 29-30
38
29
31


For comparison's sake, the party identification averages were evenly
divided in Gallup Polls conducted in the first half of 2005 (34% Republican
and 33% Democratic) and in all of 2004 (34% Republican and 34% Democratic).

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected
national sample of 1,010 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted July 25-28,
2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that
the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3
percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias
into the findings of public opinion polls.