G
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Archived from groups: comp.sys.ibm.pc.hardware.chips,comp.sys.intel (More info?)
Hey,
Anybody sobered up yet from the over-the-weekend I-told-you-so parties
yet? ;-).
Before you decide to load up any more than you already have on AMD and
to short any more than you already have on Intel, consider this:
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2004/05/10/rtr1366203.html
<quote>
Intel brings in a better profit margin with Centrino, a bundle of three
chips, than it does on other mobile chips.
"Centrino commands a brand premium," said JMP Securities analyst Krishna
Shankar.
<snip>
With Centrino, Intel is trying to convince home laptop users that
portability is as essential as raw computing speed.
</quote>
So, here you are, you've got four lines: a "high-end" server line, a
real-world server line, a desktop line, and a portable line. Unlike
what some people think, your only goal in life is to make money, not to
dominate the world.
Your high end server line has had problems from every direction
practically from the beginning, and it becomes more clear all the time
that, if you ever do get there, the margins you expected probably won't
be. Your real-world server line and your desktop line are both under
price and performance pressure, probably both in niches with
monotonically-decaying margins. What do you do?
You convince the world that what they really need is what makes you the
most money, that's what you do. There are other reasons for Intel to
make some of the moves they've made, but they all just conveniently
point toward Intel selling more of what it makes the most money on.
It's probably not too late to get out of those positions you just took.
Most of the rest of the world still has a hangover. ;-).
RM
Hey,
Anybody sobered up yet from the over-the-weekend I-told-you-so parties
yet? ;-).
Before you decide to load up any more than you already have on AMD and
to short any more than you already have on Intel, consider this:
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2004/05/10/rtr1366203.html
<quote>
Intel brings in a better profit margin with Centrino, a bundle of three
chips, than it does on other mobile chips.
"Centrino commands a brand premium," said JMP Securities analyst Krishna
Shankar.
<snip>
With Centrino, Intel is trying to convince home laptop users that
portability is as essential as raw computing speed.
</quote>
So, here you are, you've got four lines: a "high-end" server line, a
real-world server line, a desktop line, and a portable line. Unlike
what some people think, your only goal in life is to make money, not to
dominate the world.
Your high end server line has had problems from every direction
practically from the beginning, and it becomes more clear all the time
that, if you ever do get there, the margins you expected probably won't
be. Your real-world server line and your desktop line are both under
price and performance pressure, probably both in niches with
monotonically-decaying margins. What do you do?
You convince the world that what they really need is what makes you the
most money, that's what you do. There are other reasons for Intel to
make some of the moves they've made, but they all just conveniently
point toward Intel selling more of what it makes the most money on.
It's probably not too late to get out of those positions you just took.
Most of the rest of the world still has a hangover. ;-).
RM