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We Could Run Out of Hard Drives Soon, Says Analyst

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November 10, 2011 12:06:10 AM

This would be the start of the death of the spinning HDD's when its price reach SSD-like.
November 10, 2011 12:13:05 AM

Hard drive prices here have gone from $90 for a 2TB drive to $160.
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November 10, 2011 12:16:10 AM

Sucks. Maybe the SSD market will accelerate even faster now like darth mentioned.
November 10, 2011 12:24:14 AM

Well that sucks. Maybe SSDs will drop in price? Nah, they won't. Only time will tell.
November 10, 2011 12:24:49 AM

I was pissed when the harddrive I bought for $80's dropped to $65... now I'm not so pissed.
November 10, 2011 12:25:49 AM

WD Cav Black drives went from 90 for a 1tb to 219! That's way more the a 100 percent!
November 10, 2011 12:30:42 AM

Guess who ain't buying a drive anytime soon, this guy!
November 10, 2011 12:33:50 AM

if there was a hdd maker not in tailand, they could have laughed all the way to the bank
November 10, 2011 12:52:01 AM

anyone else kind of hopeing for hdds to go way WAY up in price?

i mean i was thinking of getting 2 2tb drives, and having one back up the other, but if hdds go away completely... i may have to stock up on them and than ebay.
November 10, 2011 12:52:05 AM

are all hard drives 100% produced in thailand? or only parts of them? Are there any HDD's not made there that are unaffected?
November 10, 2011 12:52:51 AM

I'm planning on doing a build when Ivy Bridge comes out next year, but it looks like I'm going to end up using my 8 year old 2/3 TB drive a little longer.

This shortage will drive up demand across the board for disks, so SSDs shouldn't drop at all for a while, because they will start filling the void of cheap storage without low price per gigabyte hard disks. Nobody really wins because WD and friends would have made more money with 50% more drives sold at the old prices than they will at the inflated prices.
Anonymous
November 10, 2011 12:57:27 AM

This is going to be an interesting System Builder if hard drive prices remain around the same.
November 10, 2011 1:00:51 AM

so by mid 2012 the price will come down again? i was planning to build a htpc in early 2012, but i guess waiting a few month is acceptable for me...
November 10, 2011 1:07:40 AM

there is an 8yr old 2-3TB HDD?
November 10, 2011 1:18:10 AM

10 to 60% That must be in the USA. Here in Canada I'm looking at a WD Caviar Black 2TB that I bought a few months back for $129, now on for $299. That's over 130%. Most 500gb drives that were 49 bucks are now $99

November 10, 2011 1:20:14 AM

Correction, I just checked again and the 2TB Caviar Black is now $399. That's a 210% increase.
November 10, 2011 1:22:28 AM

Tomfreakthere is an 8yr old 2-3TB HDD?

I think he was saying 2/3 as in 750GB, would make a bit more sense imo.
November 10, 2011 1:22:57 AM

As long as they get their act together by the time Ivy Bridge comes out, I don't care too much. I'll need a drive for a new machine at that point though.
November 10, 2011 1:23:34 AM

gladiator_mohaaWD Cav Black drives went from 90 for a 1tb to 219! That's way more the a 100 percent!


I see drives every day on newegg that are 3 times as much as they were a month ago. That's not 60%, that is 300% increase in price.

In particular, I'm talking about drives that were low end anyway, 500GB or less. The larger drives (1.5TB and up) are the wisest investment right now, although I won't be buying any until this all works out.
A 3TB drive was $200, now it is $300. That's a 50% increase, in case anyone is wondering..
:|
November 10, 2011 1:26:42 AM

iam2thecroweare all hard drives 100% produced in thailand? or only parts of them? Are there any HDD's not made there that are unaffected?


Plenty of hard drives are not produced in Thailand, but they are still effected. The ones still produced are members of a smaller supply. The only way to stop a true shortage is to increase the price, therefore all the HDD are now more expensive.
November 10, 2011 1:31:20 AM

gulmatI think he was saying 2/3 as in 750GB, would make a bit more sense imo.


2/3TB = 666GB >.>

I'm also glad I decided to get the newegg combo when I bought my dvd burner it had the option to get a 500GB HDD for $35 so figured why not...better investment than wall street at this point!
November 10, 2011 1:32:17 AM

Welcome to Globalization!
November 10, 2011 1:43:12 AM

Went to newegg today to see how much 3TB cost at this moment. A Seagate 3TB SATA 6GB/s 7200rpm cost a staggering $430 and don't forget that $8 bucks shipping charge.
LOL it's even more expensive than a GTX 570 or HD6970!
November 10, 2011 1:43:59 AM

WD used to have their HDD made in Malaysia, Some of my old WD says Made in Malaysia. (sorry for DP).
November 10, 2011 1:45:28 AM

ben850Sucks. Maybe the SSD market will accelerate even faster now like darth mentioned.


why would you figure that? you think Thailand doesn't have there hand in making SSD hard drives too? SSD will probably be in the same boat with price increases. get ready to pay over 100 bucks for a 30GB SSD drive that anyone will no doubt fill in half a day


November 10, 2011 1:51:18 AM

Somebody asked if all hard drives are made in Thailand. The answer is no. Seagate hard drives are mostly made in China. Was there a flood there, too? I did not see their prices staying the same. Pretty sure they are not paying their working any more money to make hard drives.....
November 10, 2011 2:10:15 AM

Quote:
why would you figure that? you think Thailand doesn't have there hand in making SSD hard drives too? SSD will probably be in the same boat with price increases. get ready to pay over 100 bucks for a 30GB SSD drive that anyone will no doubt fill in half a day

Well seeing as SSD prices have remained the same during the time HDDs doubled in price i think its safe to say the floods haven't affected SSD prices.

gbwatson96Somebody asked if all hard drives are made in Thailand. The answer is no. Seagate hard drives are mostly made in China. Was there a flood there, too? I did not see their prices staying the same. Pretty sure they are not paying their working any more money to make hard drives.....

seagate gets components from Thailand tho which is why their prices have gone up as well. Edit: and apparently they also build some in Thailand as well.

from an article on the floods :
Quote:
...Toshiba and Western Digital have announced so far the temporary shut down of their factories in the country, while Seagate Technology said the supply of components to its factories in Thailand was disrupted...
November 10, 2011 2:28:41 AM

Not a good time to build your own computer
November 10, 2011 2:32:49 AM

I actually did not know about this, but I did notice the huge price hikes. This can only be good for the SSD market, maybe it will drive their prices down faster than it would otherwise. I would expect to pay significantly less money next year for larger sizes, for more people will be looking to upgrade the following year.

Anonymous
November 10, 2011 2:40:10 AM

In the economic sense, SSDs are a substitute for hard drives. Classic micro economics says that it's only a matter of time until SSD prices go up, or slow their natural price falling as a result of the hard drive shortage.

The most interesting question is, how elastic is demand for hard drives? That will determine how crazy prices get.

November 10, 2011 2:40:46 AM

We're all overlooking the fact, that keeping in view the flooding in Thailand the stockists and retailers have increased the prices of the HDDs. The company doesn't ship one single drive to each of us. It's actually the retail network that's going to be making all the money. The moment this new spread, nearly all online stores either immediately increased their prices or listed HDDs as out of stock till they could reach a decision on what should be the new price.
Sadly, WD & Seagate would have changed their prices to retailers only after the last shipment of drives before the floods hit Thailand.
Drives produced from that day onwards or shipped from then on are the ones that actually or ethically needed to be higher priced.
November 10, 2011 2:55:53 AM

The samsung f3 spinpoint 1tb I put in my brothers computer for 60$ is now 160$... the ssd market could really get a leg up if they get on the ball with reducing the production cost and prices :) 
November 10, 2011 2:56:08 AM

i don't buy this news, just because one country got flood they want to tell me, that we're going to run out HDD ? Is thailand the only country producing hard drive ? :| I think this is just an excuse to drive price over the roof.
November 10, 2011 2:57:49 AM

alyoshkaWe're all overlooking the fact, that keeping in view the flooding in Thailand the stockists and retailers have increased the prices of the HDDs. The company doesn't ship one single drive to each of us. It's actually the retail network that's going to be making all the money. The moment this new spread, nearly all online stores either immediately increased their prices or listed HDDs as out of stock till they could reach a decision on what should be the new price.Sadly, WD & Seagate would have changed their prices to retailers only after the last shipment of drives before the floods hit Thailand.Drives produced from that day onwards or shipped from then on are the ones that actually or ethically needed to be higher priced.


I disagree because we're talking about computer hardware. Reality is looking like companies like Dell, HP, ect, will only be able to ship computers with SSD's if they run out of HDD's. Now, the reason economics changes in this situation, is because in the computer world every single year hard drives get bigger. So in Q4 of 2012 you're going to have a need for larger SSD's, driving down the price of the existing smaller sized ones. Also, customers experiencing the SSD for the first time due to not having an option to get a HDD, will more than likely no want to go back to a HDD, further increasing SSD demand. More demand = predictable in this cause, which = a better infrastructure for making them, more competition, and therefor lower prices than the previous year, even for larger sizes.
November 10, 2011 3:18:44 AM

Western Digital = Thailand
Hitachi = Thailand, China, Singapore
Seagate = Thailand, China, Possibly still some Singapore production, too.
Toshiba = Thailand, Philippines, China
Samsung = Korea (3.5"), China (All 2.5", Some 3.5")

No more hard drives? Who is this guy? Look... So far the only company I've heard about having issues due to flooding is Western D. Are they the only company that built their production fab on a flood plain? How do we know other manufactures in the area didn't build substantially higher than Sea Level? It's just a equally a possibility that we're being lied to. Wouldn't be the first time this has happened in the tech industry. I remember a RAM production facility that caught fire around the late nineties and all the sudden a stick of 128MB PC133 went from $60 to $170 in a week. Then later it was found out that the particular facility produced modules with tech dating ten plus years back and had no impact on the industry. RAM manufactures just banded together to keep prices up. Then in 2007/2008 they were recently caught doing it again... no tragedy this time.

Now I'm not saying this is 100% Bullsht. I've seen the pictures. But a lot of manufactures started out in other countries before setting up shop in Thailand and still have full production going on in Singapore, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, China, so for some Guy to say we might run out is just talking out his arse.

Apparently Seagate is in the news considered to be 'among the lucky' so not all manufacturing in Thailand was smacked, more a problem moving materials and supply. So the PC manufacturers will get their drives. Just won't be Western Digital.
November 10, 2011 3:33:02 AM

In Canada, we are asked to pay $240 for 2TB Caviar Green. I should've snapped a few more up before they shot up...
November 10, 2011 3:50:48 AM

ZannyI'm planning on doing a build when Ivy Bridge comes out next year, but it looks like I'm going to end up using my 8 year old 2/3 TB drive a little longer.


Lawl. The largest HDD was 500 GB back in 2005. Considering that was only 6 years ago, I'm going to say either you made a mistake or you are so full of it people can smell you a world away. 2 TB drives didn't even come out until 2009, released by Western Digital.
November 10, 2011 4:15:51 AM

NOW is the time then SSD have to step up!
November 10, 2011 4:26:44 AM

When WD said they didn't have a shortage, they didn't see thailand coming.
November 10, 2011 5:20:44 AM

I won't be needing a hard drive anytime soon, anyway...as long as prices are OK by summer 2012.
November 10, 2011 5:22:44 AM

"10 to 60 percent"?
Definitely way more.
A hard drive that was once $55 is now $150.
That's approximately a 172.73% increase!
I chose a bad time to start building my first PC... D=
November 10, 2011 6:19:07 AM

The first article I read about this said that most companies had about 40% of their components sources from Thailand, but WD had about 60%. So they may be assembled in China, or Malaysia, but the supply chain is all over Asia.
November 10, 2011 8:59:51 AM

Guys.... download less pron and there will not have supply issue with HDD anymore.....
November 10, 2011 9:07:47 AM

People! SSD prices have dropped by almost $10 from last week on newegg. Hell, even intel drives are almost the same price as the others...

And i think your retailers are scamming you. Prices have risen in India too, but a 1TB Caviar Black is for about $140 here now, compared to about $85 (by current exchange rates, $95 by pre-august ones) a few months ago.

ZingamEverybody who does not believe the Maya that the world is ending 2012. This is just the beginning. When the prices of HDD are increased by 1000% and nobody is able to get a new HDD when they need it. Its all over for the nerd generation. RIP!

Hey Dr.Doom, ever wondered what SSDs are for?
November 10, 2011 9:25:29 AM

damn I should have buy a HDD month ago
November 10, 2011 9:30:52 AM

if malaysia got flooded would that spell doom for AMD?
November 10, 2011 9:31:53 AM

...just looking at the title, not having read the article, I see an excuse to raise prices. :heink: 
November 10, 2011 9:38:20 AM

beaynCorrection, I just checked again and the 2TB Caviar Black is now $399. That's a 210% increase.

Get it on goharddrive as a whitelabel drive for just a bit over $100 :) 
November 10, 2011 9:40:06 AM

Oh wait, nevermind they've adjusted their prices up
!