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HDD Prices Not Expected to Decline Until 2014

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June 7, 2012 11:43:17 PM

That's BullShit. Sounds like collusion and sounds pretty illegal.
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June 7, 2012 11:53:47 PM

HDD? What is a HDD? I only know SSD.
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June 7, 2012 11:57:28 PM

VetteDudeThat's BullShit. Sounds like collusion and sounds pretty illegal.


I agree but who is going to whack them ?!?

Certainly not the US and probably not the EU either, we have a defacto duopoly now, what can be done other then boycotting and essentially you not being able to purchase any more storage for quite awhile.
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June 7, 2012 11:57:34 PM

They are decreasing in price, just a few months ago (4 ish) a spinpoint F3 was selling for 140 bucks 109 (and on newegg there is a 30 dollars off promo code)
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June 7, 2012 11:58:14 PM

damn you brain! "they are now selling for 109" is how it should have read.
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June 8, 2012 12:02:32 AM

This is bullpoop!
Hard drives prices have been declining for a while now....
Granted, they are not where they should have been (without all this nonsense)
2TB drives used to be at $79 before this fiasco, now they can be found for $99-$109
so still "not quite there yet" but no way that this article can be taken seriously.

Still waiting for the 5TB drives for $120 or so... now THIS I might have to wait till 2014-2015
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June 8, 2012 12:06:12 AM

The 2TB WD Caviar Black I've had my eye on for a few months now dropped in price by $30 on Amazon in the past week (and there's a $30 promo on NewEgg, not coincidentally I assume).

But I highly doubt the prices will drop by that much even by Christmas. Ah, remember when we could get 2TB HDDs for 89.99 during Christmas? And 89.99-109.99 the rest of the year? The good old days...
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June 8, 2012 12:07:51 AM

Collective price gouging. I should invest in those HDD companies because higher profit margins should boost profits, which typically give investors and stock market analysts a high.
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June 8, 2012 12:09:11 AM

hah!! with the SSD threat looming in the horizon... they dare pull some bullshit trick like this one??

@VetteDude I bet it is a collusion, they must've seen some good profits from squeezing every dollar out of those HDDs... sigh... price fixing, anyone?
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June 8, 2012 12:12:03 AM

I still fondly remember that time when I bought a 2TB caviar green for $70...
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June 8, 2012 12:13:43 AM

#$!* Should have bought twenty 2TB WD Caviar Blacks at $90 when i first read news of HDD shortages in Thailand.
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June 8, 2012 12:31:03 AM

Oh well. As long as SSD prices go down I could care less.
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June 8, 2012 12:38:59 AM

Considering that the World economy is in technically a 'Depression' they can dream on or swim in their HDDs. Over the past few months the Spinpoint F3 has dropped from a peak of $165 down to $80 from it's $65 low or pre-flood pricing.

The reports that I brought to TH attention stated early 2013 for Supply and Demand to level-out.

Last Global PC Sales showed negative year-over-year growth.

Further, as SSD approach parity of HDD costs the HDD's are going the way of the Dodo Bird.
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June 8, 2012 12:39:37 AM

First and foremost I'll be doing my part by not purchasing any more HDD capacity until prices drop to pre-flood levels and come with the old 5 year warranties. Secondly, if that really does take till 2014 I may start implementing alternate storage methods, Blue ray for long term storage is now looking pretty good. Thirdly, SSD's are getting cheaper by the quarter and the HDD's might lose a lot of their competitive advantage. Fourth, any idiot betting on the future of their business expanding with windows 8 to sell a lot of volume ought to be demoted.
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June 8, 2012 12:50:40 AM

I also am refusing to purchase HDD's until the costs return to where they should be. I have been encouraging customers to buy SSD instead. As spasmolytic has pointed out blu ray is a good alternative and one I have made full use of.
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June 8, 2012 1:17:37 AM

I bought a 2TB HDD and I now have a 120GB SSD, so I'm not going to have to upgrade for at least 3 years... 1.62TB free / 77.6GB free.

Yep :D 
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June 8, 2012 1:26:08 AM

"HDDs are currently selling for an average of $65"

What size? Different capacity hard drives sell for different amounts, so what does this mean?
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June 8, 2012 1:36:23 AM

Good thing SSD prices are falling fast.
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June 8, 2012 1:41:58 AM

While there is logic to a part of their argument, I don't buy that it should take that long. Just looking at the numbers you can understand that a couple months of decreased output when you're talking about meeting a quarterly demand that reaches between 145 and 160 million units. Don't recall precisely, but if those plants were already working at full capacity when they went down, and no new plants have been built in the nine or so months since, it isn't unreasonable that they would have a little trouble catching up with demand again.

That being said, prices are already coming down and should continue to do so until they do reach their former pre-flood price level. The only impediment will be demand. As long as demand remains high they won't have any incentive to drop prices any faster. They'll keep putting a new floor in to make more money, milking the continued hesitance of average consumers to jump in with SSDs.

Finally, I would note that this is an IHS report. They're analysts and researchers, which means they're making a best educated guess. They could very well change their mind tomorrow if someone showed them something different. No need to worry too much.
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Anonymous
June 8, 2012 1:55:49 AM

They aren't holding the consumer market for ransom. They are milking the IT world where MANY HDDs
needs to be replaced more frequently.
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June 8, 2012 2:20:53 AM

Those of you saying that this isn't accurate due to having observed specific drives coming down in cost are misunderstanding the information given in the article. The *average* price of hard drives is still relatively high compared to the pre-flood situation. Technology improvements has meant that the average hard drive has also increased since the pre-flood times which means that each $ buys more storage on average.

I.e. say in 2011 there were 3 hard drives available - 1TB, 1.5TB and 2TB and each were priced $50, $75 and $115. Assuming all three models were bought in equal numbers, the average hard drive size would be 1.5TB and the average hard drive price would be $80. Say in 2012 there have been technological improvements so that the 3 hard drives available now are 1TB, 2TB and 3TB and they're sold at $45, $85 and $110. The average hard drive size would now be 2TB but the average hard drive price would still be $80.
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June 8, 2012 2:49:02 AM

There is no shortage my supplier can sell me as many drives as i need sounds like the hard drive companies are trying to do what oil companies did and drive up prices because people will pay it.
I stopped carrying a large supply due to the fact that prices are being fixed by the companies selling them both seagate and wdc are working together to keep prices up.
Also i have noticed a lack of quality on new drives they are using cheaper parts i have been sending back quite a few more drives than before they seem to die before 1 year is up.
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June 8, 2012 3:15:15 AM

What shortage? How are the floods from last year still impacting things to this day? Something stinks. I'm going to agree with the accusations of collusion. SSD prices are falling nicely though. I sprung for 2 SATA 3 SSDs and put them in RAID0 several months ago for my Sandy Bridge E build. No problems. Plenty of space for games and files. Not enough space for movies, but an older external HDD from before the floods does just fine for that.
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June 8, 2012 3:27:44 AM

It was incredibly stupid and short sighted to let the top 2 HDD manufacturers gobble up the 3rd and 4th. The only worse idea would be to let AT&T buy t-mobile, and VZW buy Sprint. Who voted to allow the mergers? That group needs to be brought before the public and given a collective kick in the nuts.

Oh wait, no... This is "free market capitalism" right?. Where the people in charge are free to abuse the market to take as much of your capital as possible. Crony 'conservatives' and naive 'libertarians' are real the problem.

Obama 2012. :) 
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June 8, 2012 4:10:01 AM

jlopezst20hah!! with the SSD threat looming in the horizon... they dare pull some bullshit trick like this one?? @VetteDude I bet it is a collusion, they must've seen some good profits from squeezing every dollar out of those HDDs... sigh... price fixing, anyone?


There's one thing that SSDs can't compete against HDDs with, very low price per gigabyte of storage. And let's not forget about the average consumer not knowing the difference between an SSD or HDD or only cares about the price per gigabyte.
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June 8, 2012 4:50:42 AM

good, no new HDD until 2014 then, Seagate,WD if u want my money drop it down to pre-flood price or NO DEAL.
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June 8, 2012 5:19:21 AM

jaquithConsidering that the World economy is in technically a 'Depression' they can dream on or swim in their HDDs. Over the past few months the Spinpoint F3 has dropped from a peak of $165 down to $80 from it's $65 low or pre-flood pricing. The reports that I brought to TH attention stated early 2013 for Supply and Demand to level-out. Last Global PC Sales showed negative year-over-year growth. Further, as SSD approach parity of HDD costs the HDD's are going the way of the Dodo Bird.


hdds still have storage space over ssds, and will for a long time, even if we hit the 6nm range on ssd tech (may be impossible) a hdd will STILL store more for less money,

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June 8, 2012 5:48:07 AM

While I do believe there is some kind of price fixing going on, I have to take this report with a grain of salt too. Prices are dropping, although not as fast was I would like. IHS is just interpreting the data they have and crunching the numbers to look into their crystal ball and attempt to forecast what might happen in the future. They are after all analysts and researchers, that's what they do. They try to forecast the future by what has happened in past quarters. I have been watching SSD prices steadily dropping but until the price per GB comes down they are still out of reach for the average consumer, who might not even know what a SSD is, or how it can improve their performance.

Off topic:
dark_knight33 before you start throwing those labels around you might actually want to look up the terms. I am a Conservative Libertarian, I suggest you read the first paragraph here: . I enjoy talking to others who have different view points other than my own, but only if they can do so in an intelligent, and civil way, and also have an open mind.
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June 8, 2012 5:55:47 AM

Please, delete some porn and you'll have a few new empty HDDs.
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June 8, 2012 6:53:27 AM

It reminds me somewhat of the 15-20% raising of the price of Brent crude at the onset of the Libyan civil war... and the very apparent lack of a price decrease following the end of it. I know that's not the only factor, but still, it's very excessive.

Those "SSDs have no future" doomsayers should be a little quieter for now.
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June 8, 2012 9:57:16 AM

I bought a couple of SSDs for my system. HDD manufactures can kiss my ass.
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June 8, 2012 10:43:58 AM

price fixing perhaps? i got my 2TB last year for $75, now i see the same capacity and model of HDD on stores with a price ranging from $100 - $110.. see how greedy this manufacturers.
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June 8, 2012 1:53:11 PM

jaquithConsidering that the World economy is in technically a 'Depression' they can dream on or swim in their HDDs...

This point cannot be emphasized enough, but the real double whammy is that, goaded on by banksters and other game-players, the parasites are trying to "fix" this by printing money, which does nothing but devalue existing currency. This will maintain a very high upward pressure on prices; in a year or two I suspect people will long for today's prices, of just about anything. I am so glad I bought all the drive space I'm likely to need for years just before the floods.
Another thing, I am fed up with the steady decrease in quality of the products we buy. It seems that rather than build solid reputations for excellent, durable products, companies just want to keep people spending, and spending, and spending. If you find something that lasts, it is absolutely worth the extra money it may cost now; e.g. I'm sure my $190 Asus will outlast a dozen (or more) $60 Biostars.


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June 8, 2012 2:43:25 PM


Banks are functionally insolvent from leveraging single dollars 40-50 times (with their fancy financial weapons of mass destruction). Central banks have no other choice but to prop them up by expanding the money supply -- if the banks fail we are living in the dark ages, again.

HDD manufacturers are morally insolvent. The consolidation of the industry has eliminated any healthy competition.

Notice the 'return to normal' in the channel "...but price decline will only follow with a substantial delay." Right.

The "...two top suppliers held 85 percent of HDD market share in the first quarter 2012. This was up from 62 percent in the third quarter of 2011, before the mergers."

That's up 37% in 2 quarters -- most likely to continue expansion.






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June 8, 2012 2:45:16 PM

This reads more like an advertisement than news.
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June 8, 2012 2:56:03 PM

"a new market environment is favoring higher prices"
Attention all IT and system builders. Lets collectively try to limit our hard drive purchases to push prices lower.
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June 8, 2012 2:58:02 PM

Odd as the 500GB sold for $100 just 2 months ago is now going for around $64.99. This sounds more like an attempt to get people to buy now before the priced go into free fall. Low consumer sales due mostly to SSD's is making an impact. By 2014 the 480GB SSD's will sale near $100 so if it lasts that long HD makers are doomed. Maybe this is old news or using outdated information but no matter as it seems very wrong.

Seagate 750GB with promo code for 79.99. I am not allowed to post promo codes but it only takes sign up for their news letter.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E168...

1TB for $89.99 with the promo code right on the page. Prices have come down a good deal so this makes no sense.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E168...

WD 500GB for $64.99 with promo code.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E168...

2TB external Samsung for $89.99 with promo on page.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E168...

2TB Hitachi but rally a western digital drive for $109.99 with promo code.
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E168...
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June 8, 2012 3:05:30 PM

zingam_duoPlease, delete some porn and you'll have a few new empty HDDs.

HDDs are there to store things, saying to delete things so you could store more just makes no sense. If I could just delete stuff then there is no need for the large HDD in the first place :p 
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June 8, 2012 3:38:19 PM

mmmm....where does this come from - I too purchased an external 2TB a few days ago and the price drop from a couple months ago was noticeable...they better not get any scum bag ideas...
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June 8, 2012 3:40:33 PM

You guys who think SSDs are going to replace HDDs are dreaming. SSDs are great for boot drives and for putting your most used data on (another cache layer) but as far as storing all your stuff on, get real. SSD prices are still around $1 per GB. To replace that 3 TB HDD with a 3 TB SSD would cost...$3000 instead of $150 (assuming you could even buy one that big).

SSD has a long, long way to go before it is a viable threat to REPLACE HDD instead of just supplementing one.
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June 8, 2012 4:01:06 PM

That's just sickening. First they say 2013, now 2014? Really HDD makers?
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June 8, 2012 4:24:43 PM

How is this article not true? What are you guys talking about... Top of the line (size-wise) 2TB disk went for less than 80euros a year ago in my country. What is the price for top of the line disk today (which is now 3TB)? 160+ euros? more? Still twice as high.

edit: typos
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Anonymous
June 8, 2012 8:18:10 PM

People comparing HDD and SSD capacities need to remember most SSD's use the 2.5" form factor while 3.5" is much more common for HDDs. 2.5" HDD's have lower capacities and are more expensive per GB than 3.5" HDDs.
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June 8, 2012 9:14:18 PM

Listen, the price inflation is just bs. External hard drives are cheaper than the internal ones. How does that make sense?

Just compare the Seagate Barracuda ST3000DM001 3TB 7200 RPM with it's external version. I bought the external one, poped open the case and threw it away, it's an ST3000DM001 inside. Saved myself 40$. Compare the MSRP. It's higher on the internal than the external. Several models, several companies.

Why doesn't any lawyer get on this? It's obvious that with the extra case, plus work to assemble it... it can't be cheaper. But it is. By a big difference (20-25%).

These companies will all be dead in a couple of years anyway.
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June 8, 2012 10:16:13 PM

Quote:
" IHS said. Windows 8 is generally expected to create demand for PCs and keep pricing of HDDs high.


I don't think so, Windows 8 will be a flop.
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June 9, 2012 1:27:06 AM

SuperVeloceHow is this article not true? What are you guys talking about... Top of the line (size-wise) 2TB disk went for less than 80euros a year ago in my country. What is the price for top of the line disk today (which is now 3TB)? 160+ euros? more? Still twice as high.edit: typos

This is a bit different issue. The 2TB was the highest capacity for a while as the 3TB is a new high end capacity. For an apples to apples compare you would have to get pricing on the 2TB when it first came out.

About 2 months ago any HD 500GB's or more was over $100 here and now we see prices going down. The lowest I can remember the WD 500GB was $49 so its not there yet but is near half way between its highest price a few months ago.
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June 9, 2013 3:38:54 PM

this will just encourage everyone to buy ssd's as their prices have been falling
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