Is it time to load up on intel stock?

I know this isn't a cpu discussion, but it relates closely the launch of the new architecture from intel.

Do you think its a good time to start buying intel stock now that it is at a 2 year low?
Or is it going to go lower despite the launch until intel makes up for lost profits in Q1 2007?

Is conroe really enough to make these guys on wallstreet go crazy?

intel ticker:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/q [...] tchart.asp


Positive outlook from Otellini:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/St [...] word=intel

I actually had that EXACT same thought last night.

I have read lots of forum postings that show the preliminary reports on the new intel architecture... and it seems like the news is not BS.

So considering that it is at a 2 year low --> it will be easy to make money off of intel by buying now. It only has room to go up.

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The only threat to it going up would be an amd press release... but I do not expect anything from amd in the next 6 months. They have not spoken AT ALL about any new releases***. So I can only assume that they do not have any new releases that are available.

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***When Intel was releasing their new architecture they started speaking about it VERY early. Like at least 6 months ago.

I would assume that AMD would do the same thing if they had something big coming out. They have not though. So based on this premise --> I assume AMD does not have anything in the near future.

Yep, I'm thinking of picking up quite a bit just to see where it goes from here

Definatly, it is Intel has had a history of being a stable business with few/or no layoffs. Their business practice is good, especially considering they were making money even while losing market share and aggressively cutting their prices. Being on Tomshardware you know that Core 2 Duo is going to be a smash hit. The flurry on the forums will be the flurry in the stock market a couple of months to a year later. If I could give a likelyhood of profit grade, then I would give it a 95/100. The only way I would see the stock doing poorly is if we had a major stock market drop across the board like after 9/11.


*disclaimer, I am not a financial analyst or CSF.

I would say if you buy stocks, buy Intel in the near future and hold them for about 2 years then sell.

That should be good...unles AMD doesnt match Intel, then keep Intel for 3 years.

I wouldn't buy Intel stock now; much like Microsoft, Intel is well established and has very little growing it can do, even with an extremely successful core architecture.

I think the key here is laptop/desktop/server growth- not technology. If the market as a whole isn't growing, then intel is going to sell a significant amount of new processors solely based on Conroe. Remember that enthusiast sales don't even make up 1% of all processor sales!

That said, I don't know the market growth predictions. But, if it's predicted to grow any, I'd definitely buy intel stock now. Otherwise, I wouldn't bother.

Really??? Please elaborate.

Really??? Please elaborate.

Actually I tought that Dell's and AMD's stock went up when Dell anounced that it was going to carry AMD.

You do realize you can't just buy 2 or 3 shares?

Dell and AMD's stocks both went up, he may have meant Intel's stock took a hit from this.

It's a publically traded company you can buy any ammount of shares within reason of fiscal backing.

I'm expecting intel to bottom out within the next month or so at about 14.

keep this in mind, my economy teacher told me, if you ever hear stock advice from the shoeshine boy (insert job here) then GET OUT GET OUT FAST. 12 years ive known him not wrong once.

You still don't get it. Do you?

What you pay to buy AMD stocks DOES NOT go to AMD to help them support their factory in Dresden (unless they make a public offering). You buy from oher shareholders, not from AMD.

In one of your early posts, you talked about AMD's lower YTD profits dissapointing investors by lowering their ROI where you were under the illusion of investors queing up in front of AMD's door to ask for their share of profit from past years.

I don't understand why all techies love to talk about finance. Most of them are really lousy at it. If I were you, I would go back to my transistors and current leakage. You seem to be doing alright in that domain. Please leave Finance to Finance people.

...and an Income Statement

Yes, they have no idea YET how efficient conroe is and they're not expecting anything big from intel.
Let's face it, most analysts aren't hardware enthusiasts and don't really pay attention to pre-release benchmarks.
The implications of such a performance increase is that since it allowed AMD to take share back from intel, it will do the same for vice versa.

Don't be so hard on yourself, i think your advice is very well thought out.
No one know for sure how the stock market will behave all we can do is make a best guess.

I think my estimate of 14 is a little hopefull, support seems to be holding at 17.5-18. (52 week low) :?

You're right, it is a gamble.
They're expecting that AMD will be able to compete with intel by upgrading to the 65 nm process. What they haven't taken into account is that factory won't be producing 65nm chips till 2007, meanwhile intel already has 65 nm production mastered and will debut a new platform that won't have a problem competing with amd's old 90nm technology.

My economics have said the same as well, and ordinarilly I would agree with you; however, the greatest living investor, Warren Buffet, lives by the mantra know your business. Most analysts, while not stupid men, do not know the hardware industry like we do. I doubt that financial analysts have seen the tgdaily, anandtech, extremtech, etc articles and forums. Investing is part an estimate of the business, and a guess of those who invest in the business. Right now everyone, analysts, are forcasting doom and gloom for Intel. However, we all have a good feeling about Intel's new product line and we think it will sell very well. Therefore taking this information that we know, and this is more reliable than speculation, we can make an educated guess on the position of Intel. And right now it to me it looks like they are undervalued. If a business is undervalued, then buy it.

Just keep in mind that the majority of people on these forums (probably something like 95%) are vastly ignorant of trading on the stock market. So I think he is justified in warning anybody who is reading this.

You have to admit that it would really suck if someone(the majority of people on these forums) with no knowledge about stock trading just read this one article and blew a ton of money based on only this thread! 8O 8O

I have a feeling that Intel stock will go at least 10-15 percent lower before it rebounds, i think investors and people that owned the stock are really disapointed with Intel.

If i had the money i'd purchase at least $100K worth of Intel Stock if it dipped 5 more percent, no questions asked. (it will go up eventualy, unless Intel flops again with the Conroe processors like it did with P4)

My prediction(I pulled this out of my ass) is that Intel will really rebound in 2011, yup, my crystal ball is working just fine. lol

Ya, if you bought Intel exacly a year ago, it would be worth about 60% of what you paid for it. Don't be a twit.

If you buy any stock based on what you read here, please let me give you my address, that way you can just send me your money. Since you will be just throwing it away anyway.

Intel and AMD are both volatile right now. Intel might be a better bet for buying right now, but be prepared for all Intel's price cuts to lower the value of the stock even more, before it goes up. Maybe a buy at $14 would be fairly safe.

You need to wait for AMD to settle out, after being overinflated from the Dell deal. But it could be in the buy category soon.

Right now AMD has one advantage that Intel does not have . That is the extreme top end of the market. The market Cray is going after is exploding both here and in the EU. The new DARPA orders and the new supercomputing orders in Europe are all AMD. The new GAO regulations of computer purchases favor AMD because for the first time energy use is part of the RFP. CPU vs CPU they are pretty much even. BUT the new guidelines include the energy requirement on the motherboard and memory. Intel's norhtbridge requires 30 watts AMD none. If both use DDR2 that is a push , if you include FB-DIMM then Intel is way over AMD's DDR2. When your average sales price on a tray is $2.2 million that will cover a multitude of sins. The energy requirement is going to help HP vs Dell in the server/desktop area because Dell in the past has had about 80% of the government contract business. The new GAO guidelines flow through to the states and local governments through revenue sharing regulations. Dell whose corporate and government business is 88% of their total is now at a disadvantage in the US market when competing with HP. AMD has a 15% tax advantage in Europe due to the tax abatement with the German and Saxony governments that it can pass through to HP on sales in Europe. There will be pain for both AMD and Intel. AMD is going to enjoy a cash flow advantage because they are depreciating Fab 36 and the upgrade to Fab 38. Finacial analysts look at cash flow as well as profits. Todays depreciation expense is tomorrrows profits.

Right now Intel reminds me of two corporations in the past. GM and IBM. Both got into trouble because of management screwups on product . GM got Roger Smith(of Roger and Me fame) and IBM got Lou Gerstner. GM was at $86 with $24billion in cash and now it is $24. Cash is less than $3billion. IBM had fallen to $48 and now it is $79 with a couple of splits in between($320 adjusted). Intel's market price is not going to recover until someone takes over who commands Wall Streets respect. Does any one here really think that Otinelli has the skills of Lou Gerstner? Product isn't Intel's problem, management is. DEC if you remember them is a classic example of a company with great products and lousy management.

For those with nerve, hold on and wait. Intel is a definite buy, but "scared" investors fearing a price war will push down stock of both Intel and AMD a bit more. For those following Intel moves, we know that they are back on track. When Core Duo posts high sales from Conroe, Memron, Woodcrest, etc. wall streeters i.e... bandwagonners will jump on and it will be too late to catch the ride up on the stock price.

Please do...I think i can smell your feet

Sry couldnt resist.