Well there are a few things to look at. To me One Managed Copy is the reason I think HD DVD should win(that and cost). To not allow OMC on Blu-ray is retarded.
Cost is just silly, I don't understand why manufacturers would agree to upgrade their facilities to Blu-Ray with its costs compared to HD DVD....but they are. I don't really consider capacity to be an issue as both have shown a minimum of 100MB to be easily attainable(Blu-Ray shows a 200GB, but I think 100MB is enough - for now and for quite some time)
Anyhow, personally I'm gunning for HD DVD, but it could go either way.