AMD's last stand......

Reports are out that AMD plans on cutting prices by up to 50%. This is bad news for a company that just recently couldn't keep up with demand and was selling their chips at a premium. Unfortunaly for AMD that all changed when the Core2 was announced. This new architecture along with a price war has Intel positioned to take back the market share loss as well as put AMD back in the red. Even worse for AMD is the fact that they are now in much greater debt than they have ever been. AMD's response is at least six months away and for the tech industry that is like a lifetime. I cannot see the future, but what I can see is that AMD will be in a world of hurt for the next 6-12 months.

If you are referring to the 65nm Athlons, they should be coming out between the end of the year and Q1 2007.

I think 45nm Conroes were expected to be released in 2007, but that has been pushed back to 2008 when Intel is to release a new dual core CPU. The new dual cores are called Wolfdale (Desktop) and Penryn (Laptop). These two cores represent's Intel's plan to introduce a new core every two years. Therefore, it seems that Intel is already has a counter to AMD's K8L CPU. However, complications can always crop up and push the date back into 2009.

The Athlon K8L is coming sometime between Q3 2007 and Q1 2008. That's a wide time frame, but I've read some conflicting news about the estimated release date. It should debut using the 65nm die process with 45nm versions to be release in 2008. However, that is assuming K8L will be released in 2007.

Your statement is making the assumption that Core2 and the new Intel line-up is going to explode on the scene and perform better than anything AMD currently has on the market. And it just might, it looks good on paper, performs well in staged bechmarks, but until Intel actually puts products on the shelves, it's all speculation. I think the tech world is in hurry-up-wait-and-see mode on this one.

Product pricing changes may seemingly reduce revenues but have almost of no impact on a company's profitibility. I think it's fair to say that both Intel and AMD have had a fair ROI for all there products to support the recent rounds of reductions and "price wars".

Don't buy into the hype...

What you should realize about AMD by now is that they are quite used to operating at a loss. They survived their 1.2 billion annual loss in 2002 after all.

No, AMD will be around forever despite their usually poor financial performance. If things get too bad for them, they can always count on IBM, the German taxpayers, and their extremely loyal army of fanboys to come to their rescue.

No company can operate at a loss year after year, and maintain support...

Yawn...

Well remember when NVidia bought out their FX5x00 line, and ATI decimted them with their 9x00 line? NVidia was in a world of hurt then, but they managed. AMD will be fine. The demand for AMD will still be there, but it'll be less.

Love those Intel fanboys! After three years of AMD on top, Intel still does not have a superior chip. Somehow they survived and AMD will too IF Conroe is all that (remains to be seen, chip won't be here for a another month). Why don't we review results rather than speculate on what "might happen". I would view the debt of those new AMD fabs as ominous sign that they are getting ready to strike rather than view it as a negative. Intel would have nothing to worry about if AMD had no plans to build fabs or update products. Just my 2 cents.

We will, but the writing is on the wall. I sat down with a Conroe engineering sample rig that was OC'ed on air a couple of weeks ago. It was a very fast machine - clearly faster than anything I've played with before. You can say all you want about not being production and all that, but the many reports are consistent - this looks to be an amazing product.

For sure. AMD won't have much of a chance of moving forward if they don't increase capacity, yield, efficiency, etc. But just because they are making the effort is no guarantee that they can pull it off and make the jump to the next level. I hope they do. Diversity is a wonderful thing.

Good god, that almost sounds like the Cockroach Corollary.

Take the long-term perspective, people! Everything dies - all that matters is what you do while you're alive.

Intel has some pretty big incentives to keep AMD in the game though, if AMD leaves the market, so does Intels comptetition, which would leave them with a monopoly, not just strong arming tactics. Which would lead to a break up and I don't think Intel would want that at all.
AMD has always been the underdog, and scraping by with significantly less sales, so they know how to play where they will be for the next while. But they have made great strides into the server market, and that will probably support them for quite some time.

What you should realize about AMD by now is that they are quite used to operating at a loss. They survived their 1.2 billion annual loss in 2002 after all.

No, AMD will be around forever despite their usually poor financial performance. If things get too bad for them, they can always count on IBM, the German taxpayers, and their extremely loyal army of fanboys to come to their rescue.

As RichPLS stated, no company can operate at a loss... and, that's not even a matter of getting used to.
Plus, I don't think IBM, US gov., the AMD fan-base or their investors will be able/willing to support a moribund company; what would the point be in supporting a chip manufacturer which no-longer can produce high-standard, competitive chips?! moreover, I don't believe this to be the case, either.
AMD will be facing a hard time, as many have already referred & as conjunctural circumstances forecasted.
It's my conviction that, given the actual circumstances, AMD should opt for a somewhat different approach to computing, through the use of off-chip/off-die co-processors. As a mere conjectural exercise, I don't think AMD will have a new microarchitecture soon enough to compete with Intel, in parallel; K8L could hardly be called a new uArch (as far as available data goes) and Intel's putting forward a two-by-two year uArch revision; Fab conversion to upgraded 65nm/300mm process manufacturing is too late, too expensive (AMD has made massive investments, recently); yields are at a premium & inventory build-up is always an issue; and ROI will scale up more slowly than expected. Not a nice picture, at all. But, these are the conundrums a [comparatively] small company has to go through, once in a while.
That's why I find the co-processor approach interesting: Despite the implementation difficulties (socket; PCB; logic; manufacturers/suppliers/price; etc), it would surely make up for the lack of a new uArch, in the near-term (~2 years), that is, the time Intel claims to have a new one out.
Even after AMD Analyst Day Platform Announcements, I really haven't got a consistent argument to go along with the most optimistic yet unbiased analyst, on what concerns AMD's near to mid-term expectations...


Cheers!

Ok, Im sure the smart people knew I didnt mean their entire revenue. But it was nice of you to point it out.
Point is AMD will be around for a long long time. They have suffered much worse circumstances than losing the crown. Years ago they never even had a hope of gaining the crown and still grew.
We all want competition and no one wants AMD to go away. If they did you would be paying a ransom for Intel Cpu's.

I concur

You need to read more about how this business works. Intel will NEVER get the marketshare back because


1: People are happy with AMD
2:AMD has the advantage in the high end server space
3: Intel still has tons of Netbust to compete with Core 2
4: Dell has already ordered their chips, the machines are being assembled right now
5: AMD has operated in debt BEFORE getting Dell selling their most expensive chips.
6: MS, Blizzard, Google, etc use almost exclusively AMD servers
7. HP has overtaken IBM and Dell in server sales BECAUSE of Opteron
8. AMD is suposedly sold out of 8xx chips until 2008


I' say dont worry, there will be a duopoly in x64 (x86 is dead).

:? Hmm...You start out by saying that I should read more about how the semiconductor industry works and how Intel will NEVER get the market share back. Fair enough....I probably should do some more reading on this subject, but maybe you should take your own advise and do some reading yourself. I find the your first example on why Intel will not get the market share back ignorant. Happiness....hmmm that must be the new design being built into the K8L that will keep AMD customers happy. Your second exampe is just as silly since high end servers sales account for a very small percentage of server sales. The majority of servers sold today are still 1-2p, so Intel will be more than competitive with AMD on the server side with the woodcrest. Your third example doesn't make sense since Intel has dropped the prices on Pentiums so much that they are actually now positioned in the celeron space, so NO the netburts will not hurt Conroe sales, but they will hurt the sempron budget computers being sold at best buy and circuit city. The fourth example.... :? :? :? :? . Your fifth example is correct that they have operated in debt before. Actually that is the only way they ever operate, but now things are different. They are in greater debt then they have ever been and their investors are wanting to see results....hence the premium price on their stock. Your last examples are just as bad. MS, google etc... almost exclusively use opterons huh...OK I'll take your word for it. NOT!!! HP has ovetaken IBM and Dell in server sales huh....total server sales or were they just +4p server sales which account for a small percentage of the total server sales??? AMD is already sold out of the 8XX until 2008. OK

You need to read more about how this business works. Intel will NEVER get the marketshare back because


1: People are happy with AMD
2:AMD has the advantage in the high end server space
3: Intel still has tons of Netbust to compete with Core 2
4: Dell has already ordered their chips, the machines are being assembled right now
5: AMD has operated in debt BEFORE getting Dell selling their most expensive chips.
6: MS, Blizzard, Google, etc use almost exclusively AMD servers
7. HP has overtaken IBM and Dell in server sales BECAUSE of Opteron
8. AMD is suposedly sold out of 8xx chips until 2008


I' say dont worry, there will be a duopoly in x64 (x86 is dead).

:? Hmm...You start out by saying that I should read more about how the semiconductor industry works and how Intel will NEVER get the market share back. Fair enough....I probably should do some more reading on this subject, but maybe you should take your own advise and do some reading yourself. I find the your first example on why Intel will not get the market share back ignorant. Happiness....hmmm that must be the new design being built into the K8L that will keep AMD customers happy. Your second exampe is just as silly since high end servers sales account for a very small percentage of server sales. The majority of servers sold today are still 1-2p, so Intel will be more than competitive with AMD on the server side with the woodcrest. Your third example doesn't make sense since Intel has dropped the prices on Pentiums so much that they are actually now positioned in the celeron space, so NO the netburts will not hurt Conroe sales, but they will hurt the sempron budget computers being sold at best buy and circuit city. The fourth example.... :? :? :? :? . Your fifth example is correct that they have operated in debt before. Actually that is the only way they ever operate, but now things are different. They are in greater debt then they have ever been and their investors are wanting to see results....hence the premium price on their stock. Your last examples are just as bad. MS, google etc... almost exclusively use opterons huh...OK I'll take your word for it. NOT!!! HP has ovetaken IBM and Dell in server sales huh....total server sales or were they just +4p server sales which account for a small percentage of the total server sales??? AMD is already sold out of the 8XX until 2008. OK




You astill dont' get it. 1 means why change when it means dealign with a new type of system. AMD and Intel BIOS' are totally different.

2 means that if a company wll buy your server they wil buy your desktop.


3 means that if they do sell NetBUST, they can't sell that person a Core 2 if they sell a person a Core 2 the person can't buy NetBUST. Unless we're talking about those rich guys who buy two at a time for the same price but ONE IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER.....NOT.


Basically again you don't know enoguh to argue with me. I would say Google(check it ), MS(check it ), Blizzard(check it) will buy 10s of 1000s more Opterons.


DID YOU KNOW THAT MS IS CHANGING ALL SERVER PRODUCTS OVER TO AMDs X64? if no, again, you can't make an informed decision.

People for the most part do not just uprade a cpu, they generally uprade to a new computer so what the hell does a BIOS have to do with that. Again....the K8 still does not have the HAPPINESS extenision built into it yet. Second you don't understand that the Pentium chips are being priced at where the centrino are currently....SOOOO the pentium will be sold in the low-end system....like the ones you find at the retail shops that currently have the centrino chips and sell for about $299 Now as far as the big companies go, they generally change out servers on a quarterly basis so just because they bought opteron this quarter does not mean that they will buy opterons the next. Again there are different kinds of servers and high end servers +4p are the only area where Amd remains ahead of the competition...for the time being.

You need to read more about how this business works. Intel will NEVER get the marketshare back because


1: People are happy with AMD
2:AMD has the advantage in the high end server space
3: Intel still has tons of Netbust to compete with Core 2
4: Dell has already ordered their chips, the machines are being assembled right now
5: AMD has operated in debt BEFORE getting Dell selling their most expensive chips.
6: MS, Blizzard, Google, etc use almost exclusively AMD servers
7. HP has overtaken IBM and Dell in server sales BECAUSE of Opteron
8. AMD is suposedly sold out of 8xx chips until 2008


I' say dont worry, there will be a duopoly in x64 (x86 is dead).

:? Hmm...You start out by saying that I should read more about how the semiconductor industry works and how Intel will NEVER get the market share back. Fair enough....I probably should do some more reading on this subject, but maybe you should take your own advise and do some reading yourself. I find the your first example on why Intel will not get the market share back ignorant. Happiness....hmmm that must be the new design being built into the K8L that will keep AMD customers happy. Your second exampe is just as silly since high end servers sales account for a very small percentage of server sales. The majority of servers sold today are still 1-2p, so Intel will be more than competitive with AMD on the server side with the woodcrest. Your third example doesn't make sense since Intel has dropped the prices on Pentiums so much that they are actually now positioned in the celeron space, so NO the netburts will not hurt Conroe sales, but they will hurt the sempron budget computers being sold at best buy and circuit city. The fourth example.... :? :? :? :? . Your fifth example is correct that they have operated in debt before. Actually that is the only way they ever operate, but now things are different. They are in greater debt then they have ever been and their investors are wanting to see results....hence the premium price on their stock. Your last examples are just as bad. MS, google etc... almost exclusively use opterons huh...OK I'll take your word for it. NOT!!! HP has ovetaken IBM and Dell in server sales huh....total server sales or were they just +4p server sales which account for a small percentage of the total server sales??? AMD is already sold out of the 8XX until 2008. OK




You astill dont' get it. 1 means why change when it means dealign with a new type of system. AMD and Intel BIOS' are totally different.

2 means that if a company wll buy your server they wil buy your desktop.


3 means that if they do sell NetBUST, they can't sell that person a Core 2 if they sell a person a Core 2 the person can't buy NetBUST. Unless we're talking about those rich guys who buy two at a time for the same price but ONE IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER.....NOT.


Basically again you don't know enoguh to argue with me. I would say Google(check it ), MS(check it ), Blizzard(check it) will buy 10s of 1000s more Opterons.


DID YOU KNOW THAT MS IS CHANGING ALL SERVER PRODUCTS OVER TO AMDs X64? if no, again, you can't make an informed decision.

I believe he got owned.

You need to read more about how this business works. Intel will NEVER get the marketshare back because


1: People are happy with AMD
2:AMD has the advantage in the high end server space
3: Intel still has tons of Netbust to compete with Core 2
4: Dell has already ordered their chips, the machines are being assembled right now
5: AMD has operated in debt BEFORE getting Dell selling their most expensive chips.
6: MS, Blizzard, Google, etc use almost exclusively AMD servers
7. HP has overtaken IBM and Dell in server sales BECAUSE of Opteron
8. AMD is suposedly sold out of 8xx chips until 2008


I' say dont worry, there will be a duopoly in x64 (x86 is dead).

:? Hmm...You start out by saying that I should read more about how the semiconductor industry works and how Intel will NEVER get the market share back. Fair enough....I probably should do some more reading on this subject, but maybe you should take your own advise and do some reading yourself. I find the your first example on why Intel will not get the market share back ignorant. Happiness....hmmm that must be the new design being built into the K8L that will keep AMD customers happy. Your second exampe is just as silly since high end servers sales account for a very small percentage of server sales. The majority of servers sold today are still 1-2p, so Intel will be more than competitive with AMD on the server side with the woodcrest. Your third example doesn't make sense since Intel has dropped the prices on Pentiums so much that they are actually now positioned in the celeron space, so NO the netburts will not hurt Conroe sales, but they will hurt the sempron budget computers being sold at best buy and circuit city. The fourth example.... :? :? :? :? . Your fifth example is correct that they have operated in debt before. Actually that is the only way they ever operate, but now things are different. They are in greater debt then they have ever been and their investors are wanting to see results....hence the premium price on their stock. Your last examples are just as bad. MS, google etc... almost exclusively use opterons huh...OK I'll take your word for it. NOT!!! HP has ovetaken IBM and Dell in server sales huh....total server sales or were they just +4p server sales which account for a small percentage of the total server sales??? AMD is already sold out of the 8XX until 2008. OK




You astill dont' get it. 1 means why change when it means dealign with a new type of system. AMD and Intel BIOS' are totally different.

2 means that if a company wll buy your server they wil buy your desktop.


3 means that if they do sell NetBUST, they can't sell that person a Core 2 if they sell a person a Core 2 the person can't buy NetBUST. Unless we're talking about those rich guys who buy two at a time for the same price but ONE IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER.....NOT.


Basically again you don't know enoguh to argue with me. I would say Google(check it ), MS(check it ), Blizzard(check it) will buy 10s of 1000s more Opterons.


DID YOU KNOW THAT MS IS CHANGING ALL SERVER PRODUCTS OVER TO AMDs X64? if no, again, you can't make an informed decision.

I believe he got owned.

Now I'm sure your conclusion does not have anything to do with your love for AMD.

Yeah, sure. 8)
DO your research and get your facts straight. Opteron ISalso ahead of the competition in the 2p segment. DOn't forget thay also run cooler.

I did my research and the woodcrest beat the opteron in the 2p segment.

1) Where in the world can I buy a woody chip?? 8)

2) Woody's competitor won't be s940, it will have to face Socket F which I doubt woody will surpass it.

1) End of June. I would go with the $800 ones. How many servers are you planning on buying for your farm? Go to intel.com for further info.

2) Well at least you have a doubt.....so that means your not 100% sure right?

I don't know if I'm up for another LAST stand.

Actually, businesses can't really be generalized in that aspect because they all have different needs. Maybe company A's servers are the productivity constraint. They will upgrade every 2-3 years. However, company B simply uses their servers for a digital filecabinet. A 4-way opty system will last them until 2065.

If HP can sum up the situation, give them only what they need at a good price, and give good support over the products lifecycle. Then ya, company A is gonna buy HP for life.

On the flip side. If I as an IT manager(no way in hell I'd take that thankless job) can't get ahold of anyone that natively speaks english @ 3am when my servers are all dead. Then, dude, I'm getting a Dell.

You need to read more about how this business works. Intel will NEVER get the marketshare back because


1: People are happy with AMD
2:AMD has the advantage in the high end server space
3: Intel still has tons of Netbust to compete with Core 2
4: Dell has already ordered their chips, the machines are being assembled right now
5: AMD has operated in debt BEFORE getting Dell selling their most expensive chips.
6: MS, Blizzard, Google, etc use almost exclusively AMD servers
7. HP has overtaken IBM and Dell in server sales BECAUSE of Opteron
8. AMD is suposedly sold out of 8xx chips until 2008


I' say dont worry, there will be a duopoly in x64 (x86 is dead).

:? Hmm...You start out by saying that I should read more about how the semiconductor industry works and how Intel will NEVER get the market share back. Fair enough....I probably should do some more reading on this subject, but maybe you should take your own advise and do some reading yourself. I find the your first example on why Intel will not get the market share back ignorant. Happiness....hmmm that must be the new design being built into the K8L that will keep AMD customers happy. Your second exampe is just as silly since high end servers sales account for a very small percentage of server sales. The majority of servers sold today are still 1-2p, so Intel will be more than competitive with AMD on the server side with the woodcrest. Your third example doesn't make sense since Intel has dropped the prices on Pentiums so much that they are actually now positioned in the celeron space, so NO the netburts will not hurt Conroe sales, but they will hurt the sempron budget computers being sold at best buy and circuit city. The fourth example.... :? :? :? :? . Your fifth example is correct that they have operated in debt before. Actually that is the only way they ever operate, but now things are different. They are in greater debt then they have ever been and their investors are wanting to see results....hence the premium price on their stock. Your last examples are just as bad. MS, google etc... almost exclusively use opterons huh...OK I'll take your word for it. NOT!!! HP has ovetaken IBM and Dell in server sales huh....total server sales or were they just +4p server sales which account for a small percentage of the total server sales??? AMD is already sold out of the 8XX until 2008. OK




You astill dont' get it. 1 means why change when it means dealign with a new type of system. AMD and Intel BIOS' are totally different.

2 means that if a company wll buy your server they wil buy your desktop.


3 means that if they do sell NetBUST, they can't sell that person a Core 2 if they sell a person a Core 2 the person can't buy NetBUST. Unless we're talking about those rich guys who buy two at a time for the same price but ONE IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE OTHER.....NOT.


Basically again you don't know enoguh to argue with me. I would say Google(check it ), MS(check it ), Blizzard(check it) will buy 10s of 1000s more Opterons.


DID YOU KNOW THAT MS IS CHANGING ALL SERVER PRODUCTS OVER TO AMDs X64? if no, again, you can't make an informed decision.

People for the most part do not just uprade a cpu, they generally uprade to a new computer so what the hell does a BIOS have to do with that. Again....the K8 still does not have the HAPPINESS extenision built into it yet. Second you don't understand that the Pentium chips are being priced at where the centrino are currently....SOOOO the pentium will be sold in the low-end system....like the ones you find at the retail shops that currently have the centrino chips and sell for about $299 Now as far as the big companies go, they generally change out servers on a quarterly basis so just because they bought opteron this quarter does not mean that they will buy opterons the next. Again there are different kinds of servers and high end servers +4p are the only area where Amd remains ahead of the competition...for the time being.


if you are used to AMds BIOS you hav to relearn for Intel. Why do you think so many companies wonswitch to AMD? Because they have training with Intel specific issues and woudl need a new support team for the AMD boxes.

isn't it better to be te best at the highest level of NEED? AMD can make 10x what an E6300 is worth selling 8xx chips. So if there 10x more E6300 sold they make the same amount and still have the 2xx and FX at excellent prices.


Give it up Dufus. Go play butt boy with Otellini. AMD is just a company. Ionly have allegiances to the HW. I'm using a P4 right now at work and IT SUCKS. i really hope Core 2 is not just a clean machine wonder that chokes once you load up a GB of programs.

AMD does not employ as many people as the automoblie industry. Also the automobile industry wields vastly superior goverment lobbying capabilities than AMD.

Not really familiar with the real estate market, so can you provide at least one documented example of when the US gov't stepped in to lend Donald Trump money to prop up his real estate empire? He has filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, twice, but that's not considered government funding. Wall Street may have bailed out Donald Trump, but Wall Street is not the US government. Get your facts straight.

As I stated before, it is highly unlikely the US gov't will step in to save AMD if it should fail. Again, I point to the collapse of Enron as an example.

Worf101 you idiot I am waiting for a response from you. Don't you ever revisit a thread? Or do you just blab your mouth off then leave?

I don't love AMD. I like their processors because they were always fast enough and cheap enough. I think they should have tried their hand at being the more expensive for another month or so, but then the price cuts aren't supposed to ake effect until Core 2.

So in other words, everyone is going to put off their AMD cpu purchase until July 24 now.

isent this price slashing good for us tough? i mean we can have the premium chips and stuff now and not have to shell out 500+ dollars for a singlee processor. i dont care if either company gos out of business it wouldnt be my problem not trying to start a flame war or ne thing but thats my opionion and no im not rooting for either company to come out on top but thats just my 2 cents