AMD's last stand......

[qurious69ss]

Reports are out that AMD plans on cutting prices by up to 50%. This is bad news for a company that just recently couldn't keep up with demand and was selling their chips at a premium. Unfortunaly for AMD that all changed when the Core2 was announced. This new architecture along with a price war has Intel positioned to take back the market share loss as well as put AMD back in the red. Even worse for AMD is the fact that they are now in much greater debt than they have ever been. AMD's response is at least six months away and for the tech industry that is like a lifetime. I cannot see the future, but what I can see is that AMD will be in a world of hurt for the next 6-12 months.

 

[K8MAN]

They've already got order's for 100's of thousands of QC chips as soon as they hit which will fetch quite a nice premium. I think it's Cray who wants to build the world's fastest machine with QC 2.6ghz chips. Dont worry bout them. They also got the momentum that even superman couldnt stop right now until Core 2 actually becomes available.

 

[jaguarskx]

If you are referring to the 65nm Athlons, they should be coming out between the end of the year and Q1 2007.

I think 45nm Conroes were expected to be released in 2007, but that has been pushed back to 2008 when Intel is to release a new dual core CPU. The new dual cores are called Wolfdale (Desktop) and Penryn (Laptop). These two cores represent's Intel's plan to introduce a new core every two years. Therefore, it seems that Intel is already has a counter to AMD's K8L CPU. However, complications can always crop up and push the date back into 2009.

The Athlon K8L is coming sometime between Q3 2007 and Q1 2008. That's a wide time frame, but I've read some conflicting news about the estimated release date. It should debut using the 65nm die process with 45nm versions to be release in 2008. However, that is assuming K8L will be released in 2007.

 

[gudodayn]

Reports are out that AMD plans on cutting prices by up to 50%. This is bad news for a company that just recently couldn't keep up with demand and was selling their chips at a premium. Unfortunaly for AMD that all changed when the Core2 was announced. This new architecture along with a price war has Intel positioned to take back the market share loss as well as put AMD back in the red. Even worse for AMD is the fact that they are now in much greater debt than they have ever been. AMD's response is at least six months away and for the tech industry that is like a lifetime. I cannot see the future, but what I can see is that AMD will be in a world of hurt for the next 6-12 months.

With all the CPU price / performance war aside, are you not contradicting yourself??

"I cannot see the future.........." but almost every statement is about the future and have yet to happen!!!!!

AMD is going to have price cuts, Intel is going have price cuts but what is the actual price when it hits the shelves??
No one knows until they (CPUs) actual hit the shelves!!!!

 

[chunkymonster]

Reports are out that AMD plans on cutting prices by up to 50%. This is bad news for a company that just recently couldn't keep up with demand and was selling their chips at a premium. Unfortunaly for AMD that all changed when the Core2 was announced. This new architecture along with a price war has Intel positioned to take back the market share loss as well as put AMD back in the red. Even worse for AMD is the fact that they are now in much greater debt than they have ever been. AMD's response is at least six months away and for the tech industry that is like a lifetime. I cannot see the future, but what I can see is that AMD will be in a world of hurt for the next 6-12 months.

Your statement is making the assumption that Core2 and the new Intel line-up is going to explode on the scene and perform better than anything AMD currently has on the market. And it just might, it looks good on paper, performs well in staged bechmarks, but until Intel actually puts products on the shelves, it's all speculation. I think the tech world is in hurry-up-wait-and-see mode on this one.

Product pricing changes may seemingly reduce revenues but have almost of no impact on a company's profitibility. I think it's fair to say that both Intel and AMD have had a fair ROI for all there products to support the recent rounds of reductions and "price wars".

Don't buy into the hype...

 

[MasterLee]

Another DOOMSAYER, you guys are funny, NOT !!!!!!

 

[gr8mikey]

Reports are out that AMD plans on cutting prices by up to 50%. This is bad news for a company that just recently couldn't keep up with demand and was selling their chips at a premium. Unfortunaly for AMD that all changed when the Core2 was announced. This new architecture along with a price war has Intel positioned to take back the market share loss as well as put AMD back in the red. Even worse for AMD is the fact that they are now in much greater debt than they have ever been. AMD's response is at least six months away and for the tech industry that is like a lifetime. I cannot see the future, but what I can see is that AMD will be in a world of hurt for the next 6-12 months.

What you should realize about AMD by now is that they are quite used to operating at a loss. They survived their 1.2 billion annual loss in 2002 after all.

No, AMD will be around forever despite their usually poor financial performance. If things get too bad for them, they can always count on IBM, the German taxpayers, and their extremely loyal army of fanboys to come to their rescue.

 

[weskurtz81]

What is this.... bash AMD day? You guys might not remember.... but they have been releasing competitive products for a while now. I am just glad to have a company producing PC cpu's other than Intel. Just like Microsoft.... they are so inovative..... sure..... with some competition things on the OS side would be much better. I am glad AMD has been able to keep the doors open, even if that means that they have to operate at a loss for a couple of years.... that is better than them leaving the market. Can we be realistic for once when it comes to this topic?

 

[RichPLS]

No company can operate at a loss year after year, and maintain support...

 

[weskurtz81]

I am not saying for year after year..... I am pretty sure that AMD has done it for 2 years in a row. I would be willing to bet that the US Gov. gives AMD subsidies if needed.

 

[clue69less]

I cannot see the future, but what I can see is that AMD will be in a world of hurt for the next 6-12 months.

Yawn...

 

[jaguarskx]

I am not saying for year after year..... I am pretty sure that AMD has done it for 2 years in a row. I would be willing to bet that the US Gov. gives AMD subsidies if needed.

Highly unlikely, AMD is merely a business if it somehow fails then the US government will not step in to save the day. Look at Enron, did the US government step in to save that poorly runned business from crashing? No.

If AMD were a bank, then the US gov't would step in because it would need to protect the saving deposits of millions of US citizens. No only that, but many people can possibly lose their homes and businesses because should a bank fail, then they will not have a secured mortgage or line of finance. No mortgage, then bye bye homes and businesses. Potentially putting millions of people on the street.

If AMD should fail as a business, people will loose thier jobs of course, but not enough for the gov't to intervene.

 

[Grinch123456]

Well remember when NVidia bought out their FX5x00 line, and ATI decimted them with their 9x00 line? NVidia was in a world of hurt then, but they managed. AMD will be fine. The demand for AMD will still be there, but it'll be less.

 

[Worf101]

I am not saying for year after year..... I am pretty sure that AMD has done it for 2 years in a row. I would be willing to bet that the US Gov. gives AMD subsidies if needed.

Highly unlikely, AMD is merely a business if it somehow fails then the US government will not step in to save the day. Look at Enron, did the US government step in to save that poorly runned business from crashing? No.

If AMD were a bank, then the US gov't would step in because it would need to protect the saving deposits of millions of US citizens. No only that, but many people can possibly lose their homes and businesses because should a bank fail, then they will not have a secured mortgage or line of finance. No mortgage, then bye bye homes and businesses. Potentially putting millions of people on the street.

If AMD should fail as a business, people will loose thier jobs of course, but not enough for the gov't to intervene.
Man go read a book will you???!!! Do a google on Chrysler or American Motors and see how many time Washington bailed those two out. Wall Street Bails out Donald Loudmouth Trump every other week when he screws the pooch. If you've enough jobs on the line Govts will NOT let you fail.

Da Worfster

 

[HA_ZEE]

Love those Intel fanboys! After three years of AMD on top, Intel still does not have a superior chip. Somehow they survived and AMD will too IF Conroe is all that (remains to be seen, chip won't be here for a another month). Why don't we review results rather than speculate on what "might happen". I would view the debt of those new AMD fabs as ominous sign that they are getting ready to strike rather than view it as a negative. Intel would have nothing to worry about if AMD had no plans to build fabs or update products. Just my 2 cents.

 

[MrsD]

Love those Intel fanboys! After three years of AMD on top, Intel still does not have a superior chip. Somehow they survived and AMD will too IF Conroe is all that (remains to be seen, chip won't be here for a another month). Why don't we review results rather than speculate on what "might happen". I would view the debt of those new AMD fabs as ominous sign that they are getting ready to strike rather than view it as a negative. Intel would have nothing to worry about if AMD had no plans to build fabs or update products. Just my 2 cents.

Exactly, Intel is talking about layoffs with a 40% revenue loss in the last quarter alone, then they make a desperate move to cut prices 60% so they can unload all their overstocked netburst crapola and people are talking about AMD being in a load of hurt. Too funny. :lol:

 

[clue69less]

Love those Intel fanboys! After three years of AMD on top, Intel still does not have a superior chip. Somehow they survived and AMD will too IF Conroe is all that (remains to be seen, chip won't be here for a another month). Why don't we review results rather than speculate on what "might happen".

We will, but the writing is on the wall. I sat down with a Conroe engineering sample rig that was OC'ed on air a couple of weeks ago. It was a very fast machine - clearly faster than anything I've played with before. You can say all you want about not being production and all that, but the many reports are consistent - this looks to be an amazing product.

I would view the debt of those new AMD fabs as ominous sign that they are getting ready to strike rather than view it as a negative. Intel would have nothing to worry about if AMD had no plans to build fabs or update products. Just my 2 cents.

For sure. AMD won't have much of a chance of moving forward if they don't increase capacity, yield, efficiency, etc. But just because they are making the effort is no guarantee that they can pull it off and make the jump to the next level. I hope they do. Diversity is a wonderful thing.

 

[Ycon]

Thanks, Mikes.

AMD wont die... never.

 

[clue69less]

AMD wont die... never.

Good god, that almost sounds like the Cockroach Corollary.

Take the long-term perspective, people! Everything dies - all that matters is what you do while you're alive.

 

[jaguarskx]

Man go read a book will you???!!! Do a google on Chrysler or American Motors and see how many time Washington bailed those two out. Wall Street Bails out Donald Loudmouth Trump every other week when he screws the pooch. If you've enough jobs on the line Govts will NOT let you fail.

Da Worfster

AMD does not employ as many people as the automoblie industry. Also the automobile industry wields vastly superior goverment lobbying capabilities than AMD.

Not really familiar with the real estate market, so can you provide at least one documented example of when the US gov't stepped in to lend Donald Trump money to prop up his real estate empire? He has filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy, twice, but that's not considered government funding. Wall Street may have bailed out Donald Trump, but Wall Street is not the US government. Get your facts straight.

As I stated before, it is highly unlikely the US gov't will step in to save AMD if it should fail. Again, I point to the collapse of Enron as an example.

 

[theboomboomcars]

Intel has some pretty big incentives to keep AMD in the game though, if AMD leaves the market, so does Intels comptetition, which would leave them with a monopoly, not just strong arming tactics. Which would lead to a break up and I don't think Intel would want that at all.
AMD has always been the underdog, and scraping by with significantly less sales, so they know how to play where they will be for the next while. But they have made great strides into the server market, and that will probably support them for quite some time.

 

[jaguarskx]

Intel has some pretty big incentives to keep AMD in the game though, if AMD leaves the market, so does Intels comptetition, which would leave them with a monopoly, not just strong arming tactics. Which would lead to a break up and I don't think Intel would want that at all.
AMD has always been the underdog, and scraping by with significantly less sales, so they know how to play where they will be for the next while. But they have made great strides into the server market, and that will probably support them for quite some time.

It's in everyone's best interest that AMD should remain in business, after all competition brings innovation. Where would PCs be if it had not been for the likes of AMD, Cyrix and Nexgen?

Of course with the CPU price war, both AMD and Intel will be bleeding red ink for the next year or so.

 

[joset]

Reports are out that AMD plans on cutting prices by up to 50%. This is bad news for a company that just recently couldn't keep up with demand and was selling their chips at a premium. Unfortunaly for AMD that all changed when the Core2 was announced. This new architecture along with a price war has Intel positioned to take back the market share loss as well as put AMD back in the red. Even worse for AMD is the fact that they are now in much greater debt than they have ever been. AMD's response is at least six months away and for the tech industry that is like a lifetime. I cannot see the future, but what I can see is that AMD will be in a world of hurt for the next 6-12 months.

What you should realize about AMD by now is that they are quite used to operating at a loss. They survived their 1.2 billion annual loss in 2002 after all.

No, AMD will be around forever despite their usually poor financial performance. If things get too bad for them, they can always count on IBM, the German taxpayers, and their extremely loyal army of fanboys to come to their rescue.

As RichPLS stated, no company can operate at a loss... and, that's not even a matter of getting used to.
Plus, I don't think IBM, US gov., the AMD fan-base or their investors will be able/willing to support a moribund company; what would the point be in supporting a chip manufacturer which no-longer can produce high-standard, competitive chips?! moreover, I don't believe this to be the case, either.
AMD will be facing a hard time, as many have already referred & as conjunctural circumstances forecasted.
It's my conviction that, given the actual circumstances, AMD should opt for a somewhat different approach to computing, through the use of off-chip/off-die co-processors. As a mere conjectural exercise, I don't think AMD will have a new microarchitecture soon enough to compete with Intel, in parallel; K8L could hardly be called a new uArch (as far as available data goes) and Intel's putting forward a two-by-two year uArch revision; Fab conversion to upgraded 65nm/300mm process manufacturing is too late, too expensive (AMD has made massive investments, recently); yields are at a premium & inventory build-up is always an issue; and ROI will scale up more slowly than expected. Not a nice picture, at all. But, these are the conundrums a [comparatively] small company has to go through, once in a while.
That's why I find the co-processor approach interesting: Despite the implementation difficulties (socket; PCB; logic; manufacturers/suppliers/price; etc), it would surely make up for the lack of a new uArch, in the near-term (~2 years), that is, the time Intel claims to have a new one out.
Even after AMD Analyst Day Platform Announcements, I really haven't got a consistent argument to go along with the most optimistic yet unbiased analyst, on what concerns AMD's near to mid-term expectations...


Cheers!

 

[gr8mikey]

Exactly, Intel is talking about layoffs with a 40% revenue loss in the last quarter alone, then they make a desperate move to cut prices 60% so they can unload all their overstocked netburst crapola and people are talking about AMD being in a load of hurt. Too funny. :lol:

If intels revenue was down 40% last quarter at the expense of AMD then why wasn't AMD's quaterly revenue around $5 billion? Simple intels total revenue was only down about 5.2% for the first quarter from the same quarter of 2005. Even if you compare Q1 '06 to Q4 '05 it is still only a difference of 12.6% revenue wise. Profit on the other hand was down in around the 40% range. Profit and total revenue are nowhere near the same thing.

Point being if you are going to keep bringing this up use the proper word profit not revenue. That way you will look much less ignorant to those of us in the know.

 

[MrsD]

Ok, Im sure the smart people knew I didnt mean their entire revenue. But it was nice of you to point it out. :roll:
Point is AMD will be around for a long long time. They have suffered much worse circumstances than losing the crown. Years ago they never even had a hope of gaining the crown and still grew.
We all want competition and no one wants AMD to go away. If they did you would be paying a ransom for Intel Cpu's.