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AMD slides on sales warning

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July 7, 2006 11:58:29 AM

Not too surprising really. Given intel's extreme price cuts and typically slower 2nd quarter demand.

AMD revenue to fall 9% from Q1
July 7, 2006 12:13:51 PM

Yup, basically competition is so furious between AMD and Intel this year that prices have been lowered across the board! Bad for AMD, good for us!
July 7, 2006 12:32:36 PM

Probably gonna be bad for intel as well this quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if intel issues a similar warning in the coming days.

Lower prices coupled with softer demand is never ever good for revenues
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July 7, 2006 12:59:44 PM

The difference is that Intel is sitting on a nice pile of money.
July 7, 2006 1:02:11 PM

I was afraid this would happen. Both stocks have tumbled since the pricing announcement of Core 2 and the P4 drops. And with no Vista for back to school, sales may even be lighter as OEMs prepare the new HW.

At least AMD had the foresight to cut some corners on production costs. they are the smaller company.
July 7, 2006 1:05:34 PM

Yeah I would expect to see INTC dip a little more in the next few days then a bump back up when ever the desktop version of conroe hits. after that I expect INTC to hit the 24-25$ mark (I actualy have made a fair bit of money alread I got mine when it was a little over 16$ a share) expect AMD to drop down some more for a few months at least untill they get K8L out or at least some press releases :) 

Edit:o n a side note TXXN makes VOIP equipment and there stock slid to something like 16 cents a share yesterday (lost some money there as I got it at 20 cents.....) but anyway they seem ripe for a buy out. Please google buy them LOL hmmm maybe Google would be interested in doing some phone stuff over the net :p 
July 7, 2006 2:54:26 PM

Hmmm, so wait a couple months after the Conroe release, then buy some AMD stock, then let them release K8 and sell, sell, sell that stock? There could be some money to be made here.
July 7, 2006 3:10:11 PM

Kind of curious why they made this announcement just two weeks before their official quarterly announcements...and wondering if there is something else behind this. Could it be that they are trying to soften the blow of a possible negative announcement, like a negative profit or a loss of market share?

Also, I don't expect Intel to make any pre-announcements before it's 19th date...but it will be VERY interesting to see if their price-war gamble had an affect on either company.
July 7, 2006 3:15:01 PM

Just from what I've seen on the internet, it seems that a lot of people are holding off doing any sort of building because they're waiting for the new Conroe's to come out. I would expect a very large jump in Intel's stock sometime soon, if it hasn't already happened.
July 7, 2006 3:19:02 PM

Agreed. I'm also wondering if the sales(not delivery) of Woodcrest in the last week(or so) of Q2 had any substantial affect on their numbers. Overall, I think INTC is a good stock bet for at least 6-9 months.
July 7, 2006 3:45:03 PM

Yeah, I know basically nothing about stocks except how to spell it, but simple observations make it seem that way. I'd probably buy Intel stock now and let it grow, and wait for at least a month after the Conroe's come out to buy the AMD stock, and wait till it rises. It'll be interesting to see how companies that are affiliated with Intel and AMD are affected also (i.e. motherboard, cooling manufacturers)
July 7, 2006 3:54:19 PM

Quote:
Kind of curious why they made this announcement just two weeks before their official quarterly announcements...and wondering if there is something else behind this. Could it be that they are trying to soften the blow of a possible negative announcement, like a negative profit or a loss of market share?

Also, I don't expect Intel to make any pre-announcements before it's 19th date...but it will be VERY interesting to see if their price-war gamble had an affect on either company.



it is a good idea to give guidance ahead of time for future quarters. I don't think the warning is for the past quarter since every market analysis company has their share growing.

Intel AND AMD have already taken hits for this price war. I posted the 3 month for both companies. Amazingly AMD is still slightly higher than Intel.

INTC: $18.84
AMD: $23.29


Intel has more outstanding shares and a higher market cap though, but with the "wierdness" with 51XX and the "rumors" about Core 2, it could be as bad for Intel even with a superior arch.
July 7, 2006 3:57:55 PM

Which company has higher stock ratings, and higher returns on investments?
July 7, 2006 4:00:41 PM

Unless something drastic happens when Intel announces it's earnings later this month, I think it is the slightly better investment right now. The difference is that it has likely seen it's bottom and has already set the expectation of a bad Q2.

AMD finds itself in a different situation entirely. They are finally in a position of earning marketshare and increased sales and as a result, market analysts have an expectation for AMD that has already been missed for Q2. So I believe AMD's bottom has not been reached yet.

Just some speculation.
July 7, 2006 4:00:45 PM

Quote:
Which company has higher stock ratings, and higher returns on investments?



I haven't looked. But with ovens masquerading as server chips, I would say AMD has the higher ROI. I wasn't attacking Intel, just making an observation about the two stocks.
July 7, 2006 4:02:00 PM

Quote:
Which company has higher stock ratings, and higher returns on investments?



I haven't looked. But with ovens masquerading as server chips, I would say AMD has the higher ROI. I wasn't attacking Intel, just making an observation about the two stocks.
July 7, 2006 4:03:26 PM

I also foun dhis little tidbit on AMDZone

Quote:
SUNNYVALE, Calif. — July 6, 2006 — AMD (NYSE: AMD) today announced that sales for the second quarter ended July 2, 2006 are expected to be approximately $1.215 billion – a 52 percent increase compared to the second quarter of 2005[1] and a nine percent decline compared to the first quarter of 2006. The company’s prior guidance for the second quarter anticipated overall sales to be flat to slightly down seasonally from the first quarter of 2006.

Record AMD Opteron™ processor sales were driven by continued strong demand for single-, dual- and multi-socket configurations for servers and workstations. Sales of entry-level and mainstream mobile and desktop processors were down.

AMD will report its second quarter 2006 results after market close on Thursday, July 20, 2006.
July 7, 2006 4:05:48 PM

Why do you continually double/triple post... and at 2 minute intervals??? It seems to be a patter of late...
July 7, 2006 4:10:53 PM

Quote:
Kind of curious why they made this announcement just two weeks before their official quarterly announcements...and wondering if there is something else behind this. Could it be that they are trying to soften the blow of a possible negative announcement, like a negative profit or a loss of market share?

Also, I don't expect Intel to make any pre-announcements before it's 19th date...but it will be VERY interesting to see if their price-war gamble had an affect on either company.



it is a good idea to give guidance ahead of time for future quarters. I don't think the warning is for the past quarter since every market analysis company has their share growing.

Intel AND AMD have already taken hits for this price war. I posted the 3 month for both companies. Amazingly AMD is still slightly higher than Intel.

INTC: $18.84
AMD: $23.29


Intel has more outstanding shares and a higher market cap though, but with the "wierdness" with 51XX and the "rumors" about Core 2, it could be as bad for Intel even with a superior arch.

The announcement made yesterday wasn't a guidance for future quarters, but an early glimpse of Q2 numbers.

Here's what others are saying: "We believe that AMD's negative preannouncement marks only the beginning of the difficulties likely to face the company going forward" , "Banc of America analyst Sumit Dhanda lowered his price target to $20 from $34 and maintained a "neutral" rating on AMD stock, reflecting the company's worse-than-expected outlook. " http://www.forbes.com/2006/07/07/amd-intel-0707markets0...

$34 to $20...that is an enormous degrade.

So, it doesn't matter that they were 52% above Q2 of 2005, because they failed to meet expectations, and that is nearly all that is important to fickle investors. Take Intel for example. It has posted alomst a consistent increase in sales over the last few years, but it's stock is very low...again because of market expectations. This is what I meant when I said that AMD finds itself in a situation it hasn't been in before. The days of posting "good" numbers and seeing a bump in stock price are gone...it's all about expectations from here on.
July 7, 2006 4:41:24 PM

Quote:
Yeah I would expect to see INTC dip a little more in the next few days then a bump back up when ever the desktop version of conroe hits. after that I expect INTC to hit the 24-25$ mark (I actualy have made a fair bit of money alread I got mine when it was a little over 16$ a share) expect AMD to drop down some more for a few months at least untill they get K8L out or at least some press releases :) 

Edit:o n a side note TXXN makes VOIP equipment and there stock slid to something like 16 cents a share yesterday (lost some money there as I got it at 20 cents.....) but anyway they seem ripe for a buy out. Please google buy them LOL hmmm maybe Google would be interested in doing some phone stuff over the net :p 


Do you lie to make yourself feel better?! :lol:  When I read you bought it for a little over $16 I said lucky bastard, I bought some when it was $17.9
I was reading another thread on Woodcrest and I see you said $17.12 .


http://forumz.tomshardware.com/hardware/Xeon-Woodcrest-...
July 7, 2006 4:50:28 PM

lol...I bought some when it was in the $5+ range...but sold it at $17+. Although I made good money, you can imagine how hard I was kicking myself when it hit $40+.
July 7, 2006 5:08:31 PM

Quote:
lol...I bought some when it was in the $5+ range...but sold it at $17+. Although I made good money, you can imagine how hard I was kicking myself when it hit $40+.


At one point it was up to about 80$ but thats been a while :) 

Quote:
Yeah I would expect to see INTC dip a little more in the next few days then a bump back up when ever the desktop version of conroe hits. after that I expect INTC to hit the 24-25$ mark (I actualy have made a fair bit of money alread I got mine when it was a little over 16$ a share) expect AMD to drop down some more for a few months at least untill they get K8L out or at least some press releases :) 

Edit:o n a side note TXXN makes VOIP equipment and there stock slid to something like 16 cents a share yesterday (lost some money there as I got it at 20 cents.....) but anyway they seem ripe for a buy out. Please google buy them LOL hmmm maybe Google would be interested in doing some phone stuff over the net :p 


Do you lie to make yourself feel better?! :lol:  When I read you bought it for a little over $16 I said lucky bastard, I bought some when it was $17.9
I was reading another thread on Woodcrest and I see you said $17.12 .


http://forumz.tomshardware.com/hardware/Xeon-Woodcrest-...

Actualy I bought Intel at 3 different prices the last purchase I made was at about 18.60$ but hey when you buy and sell often its easy to make a mistake :)  (gotta keep that 30 trades a month going to get the discount lol) sounds like some one had AMD stock hehehehe

Edit: TXXN is down to .12 talk about a beating lol I only bought 1,000 shares so its like buying a lotto ticket you might win you might lose :) 
July 7, 2006 5:18:44 PM

Quote:
But with ovens masquerading as server chips, I would say AMD has the higher ROI. I wasn't attacking Intel, just making an observation about the two stocks.
What's ovens masquerading as server chips have to do with the stocks? You were sneakily jabbing Intel, and hoping you wouldn't get called on it. Nice try! :roll:
July 7, 2006 5:26:14 PM

lol...good catch! Someone's gotta keep him honest.
July 7, 2006 5:33:23 PM

Quote:
lol...I bought some when it was in the $5+ range...but sold it at $17+. Although I made good money, you can imagine how hard I was kicking myself when it hit $40+.


At one point it was up to about 80$ but thats been a while :) 

Quote:
Yeah I would expect to see INTC dip a little more in the next few days then a bump back up when ever the desktop version of conroe hits. after that I expect INTC to hit the 24-25$ mark (I actualy have made a fair bit of money alread I got mine when it was a little over 16$ a share) expect AMD to drop down some more for a few months at least untill they get K8L out or at least some press releases :) 

Edit:o n a side note TXXN makes VOIP equipment and there stock slid to something like 16 cents a share yesterday (lost some money there as I got it at 20 cents.....) but anyway they seem ripe for a buy out. Please google buy them LOL hmmm maybe Google would be interested in doing some phone stuff over the net :p 


Do you lie to make yourself feel better?! :lol:  When I read you bought it for a little over $16 I said lucky bastard, I bought some when it was $17.9
I was reading another thread on Woodcrest and I see you said $17.12 .


http://forumz.tomshardware.com/hardware/Xeon-Woodcrest-...

Actualy I bought Intel at 3 different prices the last purchase I made was at about 18.60$ but hey when you buy and sell often its easy to make a mistake :)  (gotta keep that 30 trades a month going to get the discount lol) sounds like some one had AMD stock hehehehe

Edit: TXXN is down to .12 talk about a beating lol I only bought 1,000 shares so its like buying a lotto ticket you might win you might lose :) 
I sold my AMD back in May with the Dell buzz, and bought Intel shares some days ago, I can't be happier . You do 30 trades in a month?! Don't taxes choke you? :D  Make that money made! (fed gov singing)
July 7, 2006 5:35:10 PM

Quote:
Why do you continually double/triple post... and at 2 minute intervals??? It seems to be a patter of late...



Perhaps you should revisit the posts of MpJesse where he EXPLAINS that lag causes that to happen. For a person who has been here awhile you should know that. Being behind a sucky proxy doesn't help any.
July 7, 2006 5:40:39 PM

Quote:
Kind of curious why they made this announcement just two weeks before their official quarterly announcements...and wondering if there is something else behind this. Could it be that they are trying to soften the blow of a possible negative announcement, like a negative profit or a loss of market share?

Also, I don't expect Intel to make any pre-announcements before it's 19th date...but it will be VERY interesting to see if their price-war gamble had an affect on either company.



it is a good idea to give guidance ahead of time for future quarters. I don't think the warning is for the past quarter since every market analysis company has their share growing.

Intel AND AMD have already taken hits for this price war. I posted the 3 month for both companies. Amazingly AMD is still slightly higher than Intel.

INTC: $18.84
AMD: $23.29


Intel has more outstanding shares and a higher market cap though, but with the "wierdness" with 51XX and the "rumors" about Core 2, it could be as bad for Intel even with a superior arch.

The announcement made yesterday wasn't a guidance for future quarters, but an early glimpse of Q2 numbers.

Here's what others are saying: "We believe that AMD's negative preannouncement marks only the beginning of the difficulties likely to face the company going forward" , "Banc of America analyst Sumit Dhanda lowered his price target to $20 from $34 and maintained a "neutral" rating on AMD stock, reflecting the company's worse-than-expected outlook. " http://www.forbes.com/2006/07/07/amd-intel-0707markets0...

$34 to $20...that is an enormous degrade.

So, it doesn't matter that they were 52% above Q2 of 2005, because they failed to meet expectations, and that is nearly all that is important to fickle investors. Take Intel for example. It has posted alomst a consistent increase in sales over the last few years, but it's stock is very low...again because of market expectations. This is what I meant when I said that AMD finds itself in a situation it hasn't been in before. The days of posting "good" numbers and seeing a bump in stock price are gone...it's all about expectations from here on.


The point is that BOTH stocks have taken a hit because Intel can barely give away NetBust so they have to slash prices.

It is already known that they (Intel) lost a lot of money in Q2 and will probably lose as much in Q3. though that maybe as much MS' fault for Vista being delayed again.

I guess if they announce the Dell desktop deal that supposedly already happened around that time it will be a nice boost. they hit $42 on the news of the server deal.
July 7, 2006 5:56:29 PM

listen to Baron, he is financial analyst. :roll:
July 7, 2006 6:01:09 PM

Quote:
The point is that BOTH stocks have taken a hit because Intel can barely give away NetBust so they have to slash prices.


The point is that you made an in incorrect statement that you have yet to corrrect. Be a man and own up to it.

Quote:

It is already known that they (Intel) lost a lot of money in Q2 and will probably lose as much in Q3. though that maybe as much MS' fault for Vista being delayed again.


And now you are making predictions regarding Q3, which I believe nearly everyone here would disagree with.

Quote:
I guess if they announce the Dell desktop deal that supposedly already happened around that time it will be a nice boost. they hit $42 on the news of the server deal.,


I believe they hit $42 well before the the Dell server deal...sure, they got a $3-$4 bump from the news, but they've been on a decline for the last couple of months. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong with my timeline here.
July 7, 2006 6:04:25 PM

You're right, I forgot. It's been at least 12 hours since he's reminded us of that, so it's easy to see how I could have forgetten...my bad.

btw...my sig is my BM shrine, just so I don't forget his credentials.
July 7, 2006 6:05:54 PM

I am and was not attacking with that inquiry... just because I frequent here a lot, does not mean I catch every post, nor even comprehend all that catches my interest... :( 
So, care to elaborate for the mis-informed? :wink:
July 7, 2006 7:11:45 PM

Quote:

It is already known that they (Intel) lost a lot of money in Q2 and will probably lose as much in Q3.


It is known? Really? Do you have an in with accountants at Intel or another access to insider information? I'm just asking how this would be information already known because the Q2 financial report isn't out yet for Intel. Even the consensus at First Call is expecting Intel to come in near $0.14 per share for Q2'06. Last time I checked, earning $0.14 per share is not a loss. Even going back as far as 2001 right after the severe down turn in technology, Intel did not lose money on a quarterly or yearly basis since then.
July 7, 2006 7:25:32 PM

Hey Baron, could you help me with some chart analysis? Looking at the 1 year chart for AMD can you give us an idea of where the near term bottom will likely be? It has been steadily trading downward for the last several weeks and has yet to put in a bottom. Where do you think this bottom will be? Intel has already put in a bottom and has appeared to reverse its downtrend.

What would your reasonable estimation of the bottom be for AMD? Or does your investment firm only deal in fundamental analysis and not technicals?

AMD 1 year chart


EDIT: lol @ bixplus for that sig. funny stuff man
July 7, 2006 7:45:49 PM

You might want to re-think that Gary!

Given the capital expenditure that AMD has for their new Fab and the upgrade of the Fab38 and others it will be a while before AMD sees substantial profit.

It seems a very good gamble on the future. I think you will see AMD tumble for some time only to recover when everything is fully operational and all the write-downs/depreciations are taken.
July 7, 2006 8:02:24 PM

Quote:
listen to Baron, he is financial analyst. :roll:



I guess we'll see. I can express my opinion without feeling that I have to be right.


To dixplus

I said "I think it's not for Q2." I said that because Opteron sales have set rcords this year and every source i found shows AMD gaining share. they are now at ~21.4% up from ~17% last year.
July 7, 2006 8:05:19 PM

Quote:
To dixplus
Ewww..Them's fightin' words. Hehehe.....funny though. :) 
July 7, 2006 8:07:20 PM

Quote:

I sold my AMD back in May with the Dell buzz, and bought Intel shares some days ago, I can't be happier . You do 30 trades in a month?! Don't taxes choke you? :D  Make that money made! (fed gov singing)


Baahh who pays Taxes ??? just kidding nah I make sure to make enough money for me and Uncle Sam :(  ahhh well I only cleared like 5K over my initial investments last month, I try to let H&R Block do all the paper for me.... Is that a bad thing ? ahhh who knows :)  lol I would buy some more AMD stock here in about 2 months just guessing it could be 4 weeks or it could be six months but you can bet you will get a deal on it. I still think Intel is a buy all the way up to 22$ a share after that my crystal ball gets too fuzzy.

Edit: Anyone do the tax every three months thing or does everyone just do it at the end of the year all in one big sum ? (im lazy so it seems easyer to me to do it at one time...)
July 7, 2006 8:12:58 PM

Quote:
Hey Baron, could you help me with some chart analysis? Looking at the 1 year chart for AMD can you give us an idea of where the near term bottom will likely be? It has been steadily trading downward for the last several weeks and has yet to put in a bottom. Where do you think this bottom will be? Intel has already put in a bottom and has appeared to reverse its downtrend.

What would your reasonable estimation of the bottom be for AMD? Or does your investment firm only deal in fundamental analysis and not technicals?

AMD 1 year chart


EDIT: lol @ bixplus for that sig. funny stuff man



I would say they won't go below $20. Sun is releasing new servers as are Dell, HP, SuperMicro and if they do turn on MultiThreading, that will cause a nice sales spike. Also Dell is SUPPOSED to launch AMD desktops, which will also give investors more confidence and may raise BearStearns rating of them.

Intel hit bottom because of their net sales (units) and market cap. AMD is a differnet story because of their size and Intel's sometimes ruthless dealings.

I'd say Q3 is lookign good for AMD because by then we'llstart to see the effect of eliminating so many chips. Taking out the 1MB desktops will save 40-50% of the die. They will get at least 3 512s for the space of 2 and maybe more depending on the ratio of 512/1024 yields.



Intel will still sell 79% of the CPUs but at 60% of the price they were getting. Even if Wall Street is gentle, the bank account will still be smaller.
July 7, 2006 8:16:45 PM

Quote:
You might want to re-think that Gary!

Given the capital expenditure that AMD has for their new Fab and the upgrade of the Fab38 and others it will be a while before AMD sees substantial profit.

It seems a very good gamble on the future. I think you will see AMD tumble for some time only to recover when everything is fully operational and all the write-downs/depreciations are taken.


Your'e ahead of things that Fab is not slated to START construction until 2007-2009. New York is giving them $1B in incentives and grants. That means they won't have to dip into their own pockets until late 2008. The latest news says they have $2.63B in cash.

They can easily leverage against these "promissories."
July 7, 2006 8:24:57 PM

This is what Ed Stroligo had to say about this whole story:

Quote:
AMD issued a sort-of-profit-warning yesterday, saying that sales were down 9% from the previous quarter.

That's a little more than one might seasonally expect, but given the single-core price cuts late in the quarter, that's OK. Intel's numbers are likely to be worse when they come out.

For AMD, the bad brown stuff is likely to hit the fan next quarter . . . unless . . . .

If Dell is going to start selling AMD systems across the board, what AMD will certainly lose in price per unit, they might be able to pick up in volume.



http://www.overclockers.com/tips00990/

8)
July 7, 2006 8:28:55 PM

Quote:
This is what Ed Stroligo had to say about this whole story:

AMD issued a sort-of-profit-warning yesterday, saying that sales were down 9% from the previous quarter.

That's a little more than one might seasonally expect, but given the single-core price cuts late in the quarter, that's OK. Intel's numbers are likely to be worse when they come out.

For AMD, the bad brown stuff is likely to hit the fan next quarter . . . unless . . . .

If Dell is going to start selling AMD systems across the board, what AMD will certainly lose in price per unit, they might be able to pick up in volume.



http://www.overclockers.com/tips00990/

8)You hate Ed Stroligo...WTF. He's okay when he writes something you like? Everytime i link to one of his articles, you pout and whine about him...which is it? You believe him, or not? :roll:
July 7, 2006 8:30:41 PM

Quote:
Hey Baron, could you help me with some chart analysis? Looking at the 1 year chart for AMD can you give us an idea of where the near term bottom will likely be? It has been steadily trading downward for the last several weeks and has yet to put in a bottom. Where do you think this bottom will be? Intel has already put in a bottom and has appeared to reverse its downtrend.

What would your reasonable estimation of the bottom be for AMD? Or does your investment firm only deal in fundamental analysis and not technicals?

AMD 1 year chart



EDIT: lol @ bixplus for that sig. funny stuff man



I would say they won't go below $20. Sun is releasing new servers as are Dell, HP, SuperMicro and if they do turn on MultiThreading, that will cause a nice sales spike. Also Dell is SUPPOSED to launch AMD desktops, which will also give investors more confidence and may raise BearStearns rating of them.

Intel hit bottom because of their net sales (units) and market cap. AMD is a differnet story because of their size and Intel's sometimes ruthless dealings.

I'd say Q3 is lookign good for AMD because by then we'llstart to see the effect of eliminating so many chips. Taking out the 1MB desktops will save 40-50% of the die. They will get at least 3 512s for the space of 2 and maybe more depending on the ratio of 512/1024 yields.



Intel will still sell 79% of the CPUs but at 60% of the price they were getting. Even if Wall Street is gentle, the bank account will still be smaller.

This is like a chocolate covered raisin giving financial advices. May I ask where you get this "20" number?
Quote:
Intel hit bottom because of their net sales (units) and market cap.

:lol: 
July 7, 2006 8:32:44 PM

Quote:
This is what Ed Stroligo had to say about this whole story:

AMD issued a sort-of-profit-warning yesterday, saying that sales were down 9% from the previous quarter.

That's a little more than one might seasonally expect, but given the single-core price cuts late in the quarter, that's OK. Intel's numbers are likely to be worse when they come out.

For AMD, the bad brown stuff is likely to hit the fan next quarter . . . unless . . . .

If Dell is going to start selling AMD systems across the board, what AMD will certainly lose in price per unit, they might be able to pick up in volume.



http://www.overclockers.com/tips00990/

8)You hate Ed Stroligo...WTF. He's okay when he writes something you like? Everytime i link to one of his articles, you pout and whine about him...which is it? You believe him, or not? :roll:

That's why I've quoted him becasue it's really weird (coming from him) to say such things in benefit of AMD even being a well-known intel whore.
July 7, 2006 8:37:41 PM

Quote:

It is already known that they (Intel) lost a lot of money in Q2 and will probably lose as much in Q3.


It is known? Really? Do you have an in with accountants at Intel or another access to insider information? I'm just asking how this would be information already known because the Q2 financial report isn't out yet for Intel. Even the consensus at First Call is expecting Intel to come in near $0.14 per share for Q2'06. Last time I checked, earning $0.14 per share is not a loss. Even going back as far as 2001 right after the severe down turn in technology, Intel did not lose money on a quarterly or yearly basis since then.


So if someone owes you $400 and you account for that but they only end up paying you $200 you didn't lose money? Intel dropped prices by 60%, how can they not suffer a loss in revenues?

The 3 month for Intel shows the stock down since the price drop. They just started to gain back what they lost.
July 7, 2006 8:44:03 PM

Quote:
Hey Baron, could you help me with some chart analysis? Looking at the 1 year chart for AMD can you give us an idea of where the near term bottom will likely be? It has been steadily trading downward for the last several weeks and has yet to put in a bottom. Where do you think this bottom will be? Intel has already put in a bottom and has appeared to reverse its downtrend.

What would your reasonable estimation of the bottom be for AMD? Or does your investment firm only deal in fundamental analysis and not technicals?

AMD 1 year chart



EDIT: lol @ bixplus for that sig. funny stuff man



I would say they won't go below $20. Sun is releasing new servers as are Dell, HP, SuperMicro and if they do turn on MultiThreading, that will cause a nice sales spike. Also Dell is SUPPOSED to launch AMD desktops, which will also give investors more confidence and may raise BearStearns rating of them.

Intel hit bottom because of their net sales (units) and market cap. AMD is a differnet story because of their size and Intel's sometimes ruthless dealings.

I'd say Q3 is lookign good for AMD because by then we'llstart to see the effect of eliminating so many chips. Taking out the 1MB desktops will save 40-50% of the die. They will get at least 3 512s for the space of 2 and maybe more depending on the ratio of 512/1024 yields.



Intel will still sell 79% of the CPUs but at 60% of the price they were getting. Even if Wall Street is gentle, the bank account will still be smaller.

This is like a chocolate covered raisin giving financial advices. May I ask where you get this "20" number?
Quote:
Intel hit bottom because of their net sales (units) and market cap.

:lol: 


<Edited> The number comes from the fact that AMD is at $23.29 as of this morning. Dell is said to be announcing a desktop deal soon. Sun is releasing new servers.

HP is embracing Turion X2 and AMD business desktops. Their business should pick up A LOT after back to school. Intel's should also but it will be harder because of product differentiation.

"Hit bottom" means the lowest their stock will likely go.
July 7, 2006 9:04:42 PM

Quote:
<Edited> The number comes from the fact that AMD is at $23.29 as of this morning. Dell is said to be announcing a desktop deal soon. Sun is releasing new servers.

HP is embracing Turion X2 and AMD business desktops. Their business should pick up A LOT after back to school. Intel's should also but it will be harder because of product differentiation.

"Hit bottom" means the lowest their stock will likely go.


Baron "hit bottom” in your phrase refers to the past and cannot be "the lowest their stock will likely go". It is not an estimate and it is an actual number. I knew what you meant but your reasoning is wrong and shows you are not into this. For instance how do you know about Intel sales and how it influenced the stock market which is yet to be announced? That’s some information people would pay millions for it.

Quote:
ntel dropped prices by 60%, how can they not suffer a loss in revenues?


by selling in quantity. You assume the revenue and sale prices equal out which is wrong. these are basics.

,,
July 7, 2006 9:13:30 PM

Quote:
<Edited> The number comes from the fact that AMD is at $23.29 as of this morning. Dell is said to be announcing a desktop deal soon. Sun is releasing new servers.

HP is embracing Turion X2 and AMD business desktops. Their business should pick up A LOT after back to school. Intel's should also but it will be harder because of product differentiation.

"Hit bottom" means the lowest their stock will likely go.


Baron "hit bottom” in your phrase refers to the past and cannot be "the lowest their stock will likely go". It is not an estimate and it is an actual number. I knew what you meant but your reasoning is wrong and shows you are not into this. For instance how do you know about Intel sales and how it influenced the stock market which is yet to be announced? That’s some information people would pay millions for it.

Quote:
ntel dropped prices by 60%, how can they not suffer a loss in revenues?


by selling in quantity. You assume the revenue and sale prices equal out which is wrong. these are basics.

,,BM and Martha Stewart are in cahoots with the insider trading thing. :wink:
July 7, 2006 9:21:09 PM

Quote:
<Edited> The number comes from the fact that AMD is at $23.29 as of this morning. Dell is said to be announcing a desktop deal soon. Sun is releasing new servers.

HP is embracing Turion X2 and AMD business desktops. Their business should pick up A LOT after back to school. Intel's should also but it will be harder because of product differentiation.

"Hit bottom" means the lowest their stock will likely go.


Baron "hit bottom” in your phrase refers to the past and cannot be "the lowest their stock will likely go". It is not an estimate and it is an actual number. I knew what you meant but your reasoning is wrong and shows you are not into this. For instance how do you know about Intel sales and how it influenced the stock market which is yet to be announced? That’s some information people would pay millions for it.

Quote:
ntel dropped prices by 60%, how can they not suffer a loss in revenues?


by selling in quantity. You assume the revenue and sale prices equal out which is wrong. these are basics.

,,


So you WOULD be happy had I said WOULD GO? usual Intel spin. if Intel sells 3M CPUs at ASP of $100 or sells 3M CPUs at ASP of $80 they WILL LOSE MONEY.

When selling in large quantities YOU GET LESS MONEY for the CPUs. THAT'S BASIC.
July 7, 2006 9:22:24 PM

Quote:
<Edited> The number comes from the fact that AMD is at $23.29 as of this morning. Dell is said to be announcing a desktop deal soon. Sun is releasing new servers.

HP is embracing Turion X2 and AMD business desktops. Their business should pick up A LOT after back to school. Intel's should also but it will be harder because of product differentiation.

"Hit bottom" means the lowest their stock will likely go.


Baron "hit bottom” in your phrase refers to the past and cannot be "the lowest their stock will likely go". It is not an estimate and it is an actual number. I knew what you meant but your reasoning is wrong and shows you are not into this. For instance how do you know about Intel sales and how it influenced the stock market which is yet to be announced? That’s some information people would pay millions for it.

Quote:
ntel dropped prices by 60%, how can they not suffer a loss in revenues?


by selling in quantity. You assume the revenue and sale prices equal out which is wrong. these are basics.

,,BM and Martha Stewart are in cahoots with the insider trading thing. :wink:


Obviously there aren't alot of math majors here.
July 7, 2006 9:38:44 PM

Edit sorry wrong topic.

(Now to what i was going to say)

I wonder why do people care so much about a company's finances even though they have no stake in it. Is it just out of pure idiocy worrying about if some rich guy in california is gonna have a million less or more by the end of the year in bonuses.
!