Very interesting question about Conroe's Release!?

[Trance183]

well probably not too interesting. but IF conroe is released the 27th and retail is available that day, then are we talking about waiting till 12am Midnight of the 26th to try and order one or will the rush not be so big. i'm getting one for my bro's birthday and i don't wanna be left out. what do u guys think?

P.S. You do remember the 14th when they released Conroe's Official Info and such at midnight. You think online and retail stores have them in stock and are just waiting to click the Upload button at 12am Midnight to start selling? Or am I being unrealistic?

 

[Ragnarok]

well probably not too interesting. but IF conroe is released the 27th and retail is available that day, then are we talking about waiting till 12am Midnight of the 26th to try and order one or will the rush not be so big. i'm getting one for my bro's birthday and i don't wanna be left out. what do u guys think?

P.S. You do remember the 14th when they released Conroe's Official Info and such at midnight. You think online and retail stores have them in stock and are just waiting to click the Upload button at 12am Midnight to start selling? Or am I being unrealistic?

If it's a gift for someone close to you then I'd wait up all night if I had too. I'm not getting a conroe, but I think if they do upload them at night, they will sell out of them within that same night.

 

[Vinny]

The email I got from TankGuys said that they were the only ones getting Core 2s from the first shipment (excluding the X6800, E6700, E6600) or something like that. So you might have to wait a bit.

 

[chewbenator]

I stay up till 3 anyway, so most likely I'll be refreshing newegg 23 hours from now.

I want one!

 

[mark8987]

I'm not getting a conroe, but I think if they do upload them at night, they will sell out of them within that same night.

It will be interesting to see how easy they are to get when they are released. Something people on these boards are perhaps not considering is just how unrepresentative the level of excitement here is relative to the average consumer. I have friends that are very tech-oriented, but when I have brought up the question of Conroe they have been like "haven't heard of it". It is really only people that read the hardware websites and forums that are familiar with Conroe at present, and this is a relatively small percentage of the consumer base. For instance, how many subscribers are there to this board? Hundreds? Even if everyone on this board bought a Conroe, this would only be a drop in the ocean relative to the amount of supply Intel has likely built up.

In fact, you might actually find that Conroes become HARDER to purchase over time, rather than easier - because at present it is only hard-core computer enthusiasts that know about it, but when Conroe is released Intel will likely start a big advertising campaign, but this will take a few weeks to filter through to Joe Public, at which time demand really will take off.

 

[chewbenator]

Using that logic you could also say that it isnt that big of a deal so why does Intel need to get them in stores at the same time. If not many people are going to buy them, why ship alot out?

 

[Ragnarok]

I'm not getting a conroe, but I think if they do upload them at night, they will sell out of them within that same night.

It will be interesting to see how easy they are to get when they are released. Something people on these boards are perhaps not considering is just how unrepresentative the level of excitement here is relative to the average consumer. I have friends that are very tech-oriented, but when I have brought up the question of Conroe they have been like "haven't heard of it". It is really only people that read the hardware websites and forums that are familiar with Conroe at present, and this is a relatively small percentage of the consumer base. For instance, how many subscribers are there to this board? Hundreds? Even if everyone on this board bought a Conroe, this would only be a drop in the ocean relative to the amount of supply Intel has likely built up.

In fact, you might actually find that Conroes become HARDER to purchase over time, rather than easier - because at present it is only hard-core computer enthusiasts that know about it, but when Conroe is released Intel will likely start a big advertising campaign, but this will take a few weeks to filter through to Joe Public, at which time demand really will take off.

The point you made about only enthusiasts knowing about conroe right now is a very good point, but look how many tech websites there are on the internet. And each one has people who visit the forums, or even just check the site for new tech news. As of right now I'd estimate that at least AT LEAST 1-5 million people world wide know of conroe in some way shape or form. And out of those 1-5 million I'll assume that 500,000-2.5 million are planning building a conroe system with in 3 months. That is alot of conroes for Intel to pump out considering they said conroes will only make up 25% of their processors by Q1 07' AND you must take into account that Dell, Hp, and companies like that had "first dibs" on the conroes. I suspect that conroes will be sold out the first day they appear online here in the U.S

Peace.

 

[chewbenator]

When will the new processors be available to the public?

Machines with the Core 2 Extreme will be available July 27, with the other Core 2 Duo processors available in early August. Core 2 Duo laptops (with Merom chips) will arrive in late August.

http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,71467-0.html?tw=wn_technology_3

Well, that doesn't sound very good does it

 

[Crashman]

Cute cat, I have one that looks almost identical, except for the toe thing.

 

[chewbenator]

I must admit, it's not my cat. I will be replacing it with a picture of my dog as soon as I can find a good picture of him.

 

[turpit]

I must admit, it's not my cat. I will be replacing it with a picture of my dog as soon as I can find a good picture of him.

Dude, wheres your disclaimer? The SCPA's gonna be all over you...
NO FINGER FLIPPING CATS WERE HARMED IN THE MAKING OF THIS AVATAR

 

[mark8987]

The point you made about only enthusiasts knowing about conroe right now is a very good point, but look how many tech websites there are on the internet. And each one has people who visit the forums, or even just check the site for new tech news. As of right now I'd estimate that at least AT LEAST 1-5 million people world wide know of conroe in some way shape or form. And out of those 1-5 million I'll assume that 500,000-2.5 million are planning building a conroe system with in 3 months. That is alot of conroes for Intel to pump out considering they said conroes will only make up 25% of their processors by Q1 07' AND you must take into account that Dell, Hp, and companies like that had "first dibs" on the conroes. I suspect that conroes will be sold out the first day they appear online here in the U.S

Peace.

As I originally said (at least I think I did), I'm not sure whether they will be sold out initially or not - and I think it is plausible that they will be. However, what I don't think you can conclude is that they definitely will be. You mention that there are a lot of tech websites. How many do you really think there are though? Further, many of these tech websites only get a relatively few visitors. Also, visitors to tech websites are not mutually exclusive, ie, many of the visitors to Tom's hardware also go to Anandtech, etc. I think your 1-5 million is likely to be a gross overestimation - let's be honest, you are just simply pulling this figure out of the air, although I wouldn't have any idea what the real figure would be. Another thing to consider is that even if there are 1-5 million worldwide as you claim, there is no doubt that Conroe won't be available worldwide initially. I come from Australia, and if I was living there, I know there would be practically no chance of getting Conroe in the near future. Since I am now in the US, I am much more confident - or at least I believe that some US residents will be able to get Conroe on the 27th. Even then, you say that 500,000-2.5 million are planning on building WITHIN 3 MONTHS. The question is how many of these are planning on ordering on the day it is released. These are the people you would be competing against for supply.

 

[Trance183]

mark i was wondering about that too. because it seems all my tech friends and my collegues do not even know what conroe is or Core 2 Duo, its gonna be interesting to find out tomorrow. 8)

 

[Trance183]

I just wanted to point out one thing. After reading MANY threads involving Conroe, this thread seems to be juggling really WORTHY OF READING point of views. everybody is making really good points. keep it going. Until the 27th if we can. haha.

 

[mark8987]

Using that logic you could also say that it isnt that big of a deal so why does Intel need to get them in stores at the same time. If not many people are going to buy them, why ship alot out?

Don't bring up logic if you don't know what it is. Put it this way. If there is going to be a shortage, then why is Intel holding off the release at all? Why didn't it just release them when the first processors came off the production line, accepting that shortages will exist for months, but at least getting the cash as fast as possible.

On the other hand, is it impossible for Intel to release Conroe and not have shortages? What if it stockpiled a year's supply of Conroe's. Would it then be able to release it without a shortage? What about 2 years? If it stockpiles enough, then it would certainly be able to release without shortages. The question is how much of a stockpile does it need. Perhaps the reason that Intel has stockpiled for 2 months (this is the figure I have heard in terms of when Intel started producing the production versions) is because this is how long they have determined they need to produce the processor before releasing in order to prevent a backlog - given that Intel does not want to see a backlog as they believe it harms their reputation to not be able to supply demand.

Putting it simply, why has Intel chosen to stockpile X amount of processors if it is still inevitable that there will be a shortage? An intelligent answer is that Intel is trying to avoid a shortage, and we won't know whether there will be a shortage or not until we see whether demand is less or greater than what Intel has predicted - and it is not possible to determine what that demand will be by logic alone as it involves many variables that are difficult if not impossible to quantify. This is what makes management consulting so difficult by the way. In some ventures, you can work out that an enterprise will be unsuccessful no matter how favourable the conditions. However, in other ventures, it depends on estimating variables that you have no hard evidence upon which to determine your estimates.

 

[chewbenator]

Heheh, if they do I'll just have to take it down.

I've experienced the same Conroe ignorance with all my friends. Alas, they will probably still buy Dells, but that is why im going into Comp Sci and they are going into business, medical, and education. For them, if it runs, they game. The one friend I have that was hardware legible till he finally bought his system hasn't heard of it either. I'll just have to invite them over for a lan and destroy them in Quake .

Economics hurts my brain. 8O

Again, I WANT ONE!

 

[Trance183]

great point mark. Now imagine if Intel released a Conroe Commercial World Wide like their cheesy Pentium commercials with the Blue Guys. Then we would all be doomed. Speaking of which why don't they announce this new CPU so that they can Blow Away competition. anyway, like i said. Only TIME will tell.

 

[Trance183]

haha indeed. Poor guys are gonna get smooshed. and with these new chips, buying a Dell will no longer be a serious crime. not that i have anything against Dell, being that I own 2 of them right now.

 

[chewbenator]

Dell is holding back XPS 700 orders for a month to put Core 2 Duo chips in them, so with alienware in the background Dell makes some good PCs. Makes consumers mad that a machine they ordered a month ago still isn't in their hands. The issue is price though, with the build I'm going with $1300, it would be at least $2000 at dell/alienware. So it weighs in on upgrades, get a 2k dell every 3 years, or get a custom build/upgrade for 1.3k every 2 years, at the end of six years they've gone through 2 machines while I go through 3 for the same amount of cash. Nothing against dell, me and my family have gone through 3.

BTW, my personal opinion here. IF newegg can get them in on thursday I doubt they will have em up at midnight, took till almost mid-day for them to update the AMD price-cuts. Refreshed newegg, they took a instant 5 dollar rebate on the Gigabyte DS3 down, and they had a bold red "Compatable with Core 2 Duo" or similar on one of the Asus boards, sad observations of someone obsessed.

Some more info to bring onto the table here. On the 14th they said they had been manufacturing chips for a month, that gives them approx. a month and a half to build up stock. They also said they had 200-300million worth of chips in warehouses already. So lets use some simple math, 250mil worth of chips in a month, another half month and they should have 125mil more. Take the average price of a conroe, I'm gonna say 450 so 375mil/$450 = 833,333 chips? I know, I know, terrible ways for it to get skewed, but thats all I have to work with here.

 

[Trance183]

not to worry. lol. i sometimes surf newegg just to drool over new hardware or read reviews or sometimes just checking if any of my Fantasy Components have dropped in price. haha but anyway nice estimate of stock count. Going with what you said I say a lil more than 1 million chips. Being that the average chips sold will probably be the 6300, 6400, and 6600. So that makes an average price of about $240. but yeah i'm just guessing on my own lines.

 

[aoxue]

We are gonna get those conroes here in europe only at the end of August, or even worse I guess. Check the link below and look at the expected stock date!

The date you can actually buy your conroe on Komplett site

 

[Kornelius]

I work in the retail world. And we deal with "street dated" materials all the time, for example, new movies, music, and books usually come with a street date, most of the time they are released on a Tuesday, however we get them on the Friday before and they sit locked up in the backroom till its the correct date. Even with the Xbox 360 launch the UPS man was knocking at the delivery door at midnight, granted we only got 20 of those at the time.

I don't know if Intel works like the video card makers of the past and make "paper lauches", but I would guess that your larger Etailers probably already have some and are just waiting till its time comes.

Just my thought.

 

[kiwik]

NCIX said they are taking preorders sometimes today, and will start shipping on August 8th.

 

[Artmic]

NCIX said they are taking preorders sometimes today, and will start shipping on August 8th.

who told you that? The Tech support or sales support guy? or is it posted on their site? as of right now 8:40 am, they took all their Core 2 SKU's off their site lol Try finding one on their site,

 

[Scooby2]

Email recieved this morning from my supplier (Scan) :

Regarding your current outstanding order for the Intel E6600 Core2Duo 2.40GHz, we have just received an updated lead time from our suppliers of the 4th August.