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Is there a prophet in Tom’s house?

Last response: in Graphics & Displays
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October 5, 2006 5:09:58 AM

What is going to happen to video card prices by December or early 2007? Are current $100 video cards still going to be around $100 but $300 cards will drop to $200 and $200 cards will drop to $150? How will the DX10 cards play into this and when will they hit the market?

There is no way I am going to own a DX10 card for a while, if the cards are $500 or $600; I will be very content with a VERY nice DX9 card after the prices drop, if they drop.

I am going to be building my first PCI-e system sometime in the next few weeks, and I will need a new card. Perhaps I should try and find a $100 X800GTO or something now and see if I can't sell it in a few months for a worthwhile upgrade. I could go as high as $250 now, for something like a X1900XT, but that will hurt. Getting the same card in December for $180 or $200 seems like a better idea if things play out like that. Will they?

Of course, there is an open box X1800XT for $172 something now…

More about : prophet toms house

October 5, 2006 6:09:50 AM

Why not hold off building a new computer til then. Why pay $100 for a card now and the three mounth from now spend another $200 on a new card. $100 + $200 = $300. If you wait you can buy a mid range DX10 card for $300. It will beat any DX9 card out there now and cost the same.
October 5, 2006 6:59:00 AM

Quote:
What is going to happen to video card prices by December or early 2007? Are current $100 video cards still going to be around $100 but $300 cards will drop to $200 and $200 cards will drop to $150? How will the DX10 cards play into this and when will they hit the market?

There is no way I am going to own a DX10 card for a while, if the cards are $500 or $600; I will be very content with a VERY nice DX9 card after the prices drop, if they drop.

I am going to be building my first PCI-e system sometime in the next few weeks, and I will need a new card. Perhaps I should try and find a $100 X800GTO or something now and see if I can't sell it in a few months for a worthwhile upgrade. I could go as high as $250 now, for something like a X1900XT, but that will hurt. Getting the same card in December for $180 or $200 seems like a better idea if things play out like that. Will they?

Of course, there is an open box X1800XT for $172 something now…


So let me get this straight. You don't want to go DX10 for a while. I don't agree, but uderstand nonetheless. What I don't get is that you want to spend $100 now on a low end card and then around $200, hopefully a little less, later. That comes out to $300. Unless you know someone that will buy your cheap card at a price to make it worth while you will be losing out almost for sure.

Either wait till the first of the year when the dx10 cards are out or buy a high end card now. Either way saves money compared to buying now and upgrading later. I would wait and get a midrange dx10 card, you will be happier for it most surely.
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October 5, 2006 8:06:48 AM

I suspect that at least on the European market prices could drop most noticeably for sixth generation cards (X800XT, Geforce 6800 etc.) when DX10 cards are released. The prices of seventh generation cards won't probably drop much, maybe just 10-30€.
October 5, 2006 3:02:18 PM

My nephew wants/needs a computer now, and he has some money (left scholarship money for college) to buy up the core of my current ABIT/Barton/AGP system. That is why I am doing this now. I had planned to upgrade everything early next summer.

And part of my plan would be selling off a $100 card to a friend. I have one friend that is likely to buy a card at WalMart at XMas time; him giving me $100 for a X800GTO would be me doing him a big favor. Otherwise, ya, 100+200 still = 300.

Are the DX10 cards really going to be that good? Waiting and saving for a $300 version might be something if it truly wipes the floow with the current cards. But I do not want to end up with a DX10 version of a FX5200, if you get my meaning.
October 5, 2006 3:07:54 PM

Get the cheep GTO now, if you're worried... It's no slouch and will still provide alot of enjoyment.
October 5, 2006 3:31:23 PM

Agreed - a solid DX9 card will still perform well in Vista. I have a 7600GT and recently installed the Vista RC1 Beta. All works very nice - and the graphics performance (as rated in Vista) is enough to provide all the bling that vista's Areo GUI has to offer. The desktop graphics are stellar. And I am able to game quite well - as good or better than XP (though that is conjecture as I havn't benchmarked.)

Cheers.
October 5, 2006 4:12:52 PM

Speculation abounds... why can't anyone wait and just observe how things work. If economics was this easy, we'd all be econ majors...
October 5, 2006 4:39:14 PM

No prophet but this is my observation.

When new stuff is about to hit the streets, the manufacturers want to get rid of what's currently available. There will be the one time dip in prices, great mail-in-rebate's as is currently seen by MSI on zipzoomfly. After MIR, $330 bucks for an X1900XTX isn't too bad but is was $284 on Newegg last month after MIR. That would of put the X1900XTX in 2nd place using my quick analysis. Using $284, this would of given the X1900XTX a price/perf of 3.67. This would of placed it in 2nd place on this chart.

Then after a month or two, the new stuff comes out and they will be selling for about the current high prices based on performance.

When the 8800GTX and 8800GT models come out, I am assuming that these will be the 2 fastest single-card solution cards out on the market. Based on this, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 8800GTX selling for around $599-$649 and the 8800GT selling for around $449-$499 which is what I've read in another thread. Hmm, the 7950GX2 was initially listed at $599-$649 here. And if I'm not mistaken, the 7900GTX was priced at around $499. One can learn quite a lot from history.

My opinion is to wait for ATI to come out with R600 so it will put some competition on the G80. With no DX10 from ATI, Nvidia will be able to name their price. But since you said your nephew needs a computer now, I would get the eVGA 7600GT for $119 then when DX10 cards come along sell this card to recoupe some cost. Otherwise, if you plan on using this new card for awhile, get the X1900XT 256MB or 7900GTO.

I remember PC133 memory taking a nose dive just before DDR hit the streets. Ahhh, the good ol' days.
October 9, 2006 3:42:43 PM

OK, I ordered everything I need for a new build over the weekend except a PCIe video card. I am still bvery torn between getting an X1900XT and a X850XT, or rather a high quality card vs. a ~$100 card.

The only game I am looking forward to at the moment is NWN2, and I suspect a $100 to $125 card will play that game very well.

Having something like an X1900XT in my system now sounds like a lot of fun, but...

Is it possible that cards like the X1900XT will drop $100 in price over the next 9 months, if I hold out until June 2007?

If NWN2 pushed cards hard, I would get the better card for sure.
October 9, 2006 4:45:18 PM

This is my suggestion. Wait until the DX10 cards come out from Nvidia. There might be a momentary drop in prices in the X1900XT or similiar.

That's when I would scoup up a video card.

If prices don't come down, then I would get a 7600GT as you can get it for around $120.

Then wait a month or two after the R600 comes out. The prices will stabilize as the people who have to have it now will pay the premium for the card. And then sell the 7600GT to recoup some of your cost.
October 9, 2006 8:09:18 PM

Getting the x850 now would be the best bet if you are going to buy now. My x800pro plays everything I throw at it for now until dx10 comes out, so the 850xt will be plenty for now. What I don't understand is why you don't want to get a dx10 card when they come out? They will be available in all price ranges and performance ranges, plus you get dx10! In a few months after dx10 cards are released get a decent dx10 card and sell the x850.

If you can wait, wait.

If you are dead set on not getting a dx10 card, which I still don't understand really, go ahead and get the x1900 now. I don't think the high end cards now will drop too greatly in price because of dx10 so spend as much as you are willing on a good x1900 model. even the 1950 if you can.
October 9, 2006 8:32:36 PM

Quote:
My nephew wants/needs a computer now, and he has some money (left scholarship money for college) to buy up the core of my current ABIT/Barton/AGP system. That is why I am doing this now. I had planned to upgrade everything early next summer.


If your nephew is buying one of your Barton systems, how about you just hold onto the other until DX10/quad-core comes out. BTW, not all DX10 cards will be obscenely expensive; there should be some decent mid-range cards, as well.
October 9, 2006 8:57:00 PM

Well, I do need a card at the moment, for I have no PCIe old card to fall back on. 7600GT, huh. You like this card better than the X850XT?

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.asp?Item=N82E1681...

I guess I have turned into an ATI fanboy; the last good Nvidia vard I have owned was a Ti4200.

If all things are equal, I would like to go ATI, especially because I have my eye on that X1900XT in the future, unless I go DX10, but adding Vista and a giant PSU to a costly DX10 video card might be a bit too much, even in June 2007.

But a clear Nvidia performer will get my attention; I like ATI, but I am not an idiot.
October 9, 2006 9:22:14 PM

Unless you can afford a 7950 card from nvidia the two companies are pretty even in all other areas right now. Once you get into the 1900 series I think ATI has the upper hand since you can have all the goodies turned on at the same time. Check out this thread http://forumz.tomshardware.com/hardware/Short-List-Gami...
October 9, 2006 9:23:32 PM

Ya, but I really want two gaming systems up. I have friends over and LAN parties. I like having my second computer able to play games.

The idea is tempting, though. I spent last weekend tearing apart one of my systems and rebuilding my second to make it as good as I can.

But I could get my new system up and running using an old PCI card and not upgrade to a new PCIe card until NWN2 is released... but who wants to wait... I am going to want to see what my 4200+ X2 CPU can do!
October 9, 2006 9:48:55 PM

I guess I've been stuck on Shader Model 3.0 and can't get it out of my head. 8O

As far as speed is concerned, the X850XT is better than the 7600GT and definitely worth the money.

Until DX10 comes out, the X850XT is the card to get for low-end cards, if you don't care about SM3.
October 9, 2006 10:00:24 PM

I have read through the buyers guide a few times a day for the last few weeks, but I still have to pull the trigger on a card. And not all questions can be answered by checking out the guide, but thanks. I have used that guide for a few years now. I guess I must sound like I have not read that, guide, but I have. I better stop sounding defensive. :) 


What will I miss in NWN2 if I do not have SM3?
October 10, 2006 1:00:33 AM

Been checking out some benchmark numbers here...

http://www.digit-life.com/articles2/digest3d/index.html

and the 7600GT and X850XT seem neck in neck in Doom3 and FarCry.

But NWN2 does have SM3! I am torn up again.... I should say #$## it, drink some beer, then order a X1900XT 256 MB!
October 10, 2006 1:12:13 AM

http://neverwinternights2.filefront.com/news/Neverwinte...;27630

Neverwinter Nights 2: The New Graphical Engine and You
Better Known As: Can I Run It?


So what can we expect from Neverwinter Nights 2 that we didn't find in Neverwinter Nights 1? A lot. Given the immense technological leaps and bounds of the last few years you can expect an experience unlike anything you experienced in Neverwinter Nights 1, including a much more dynamic environment that includes customizable terrain (no more layer-cake cliffs), trees that sway in response to the environment (rather than canned animations), and simply better-looking terrain. Considering the toll this game will take on your graphics card, one could only hope the terrain would look stunning, and indeed it shall.

What was that I was saying about graphics cards? I'm sure you want to know that magic question: can I play it or do I need to run to BestBuy? Okay, so maybe BestBuy isn't your computer hardware store of choice, but you get the idea. Dedicated gamers who keep up with all the new releases should be fine. Those who like to stick to their old-school games may be looking at a necessary upgrade. Neverwinter Nights 2 isn't for the light at heart, and your old Radeon 9200 (sorry, friend, I loved you while you lasted!) will need to go. Any card that can not provide Shader Model 2.0 software just isn't going to work for you. Looks like the RPG fans who are already running The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion should be just fine! Those of us that can't are in trouble.

The rest of you out there who are shouting "max eye candy" will need cards with at least Shader Model 3.0. The more ram your card holds the better, but 128mb is the absolute minimum. But anyway let's get to the nitty gritty: the supported and unsupported lists.

UNsupported cards: If you have one of these cards it's time to hit the store.

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Radeon 7000 & Radeon VE
GeForce 4 MX 4000
GeForce 256
GeForce 2 MX
Radeon 7200 & ATi Radeon
GeForce 2 GTS
GeForce 2 Pro
GeForce 2 Ti
GeForce 2 Ultra
GeForce 4 MX 420
Radeon 7500
GeForce 4 MX 440
Radeon 9100 IGP (integrated graphics)
Volari V3
Radeon 9250
GeForce 3
Radeon 9000
Radeon 9200
Matrox Parahelia 128
GeForce 3 Ti 200
Radeon 8500 & Radeon 9000pro
Radeon 9100
Radeon 9100pro
GeForce 3 Ti 500
GeForce 4 Ti
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Supported nVidia Cards:

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GeForce FX 5600
GeForce FX 5600 Ultra
GeForce FX 5600SE
GeForce FX 5600XT
GeForce FX 5700
GeForce FX 5700VE
GeForce FX 5700 Ultra
GeForce FX 5700LE
GeForce FX 5800
GeForce FX 5800 Ultra
GeForce FX 5900
GeForce FX 5900 Ultra
GeForce FX 5900XT
GeForce FX 5900ZT
GeForce FX 5950 Ultra
GeForce PCX 5300
GeForce PCX 5750
GeForce PCX 5900
GeForce PCX 6200
GeForce 6600 GT
GeForce 6600 LE
GeForce 6600
GeForce 6800
GeForce 6800 GT
GeForce 6800 LE
GeForce 6800 Ultra
GeForce 7300LE
GeForce 7800 GTX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Supported ATI cards:

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Radeon X1900
Radeon X1800
Radeon X1600
Radeon X1300
Radeon X850
Radeon X800
Radeon X700
Radeon X600
Radeon X550
Radeon X300
Radeon 9800
Radeon 9550
Radeon 9500
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Ideal cards for maximum eye candy:

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Radeon X1300 HM
Radeon X1300
Radeon X1300 Pro
Radeon X1600 Pro
Radeon X1600 XT
Radeon X1800 XL
Radeon X1800 XT
Radeon X1900 XT
Radeon X1900 XTX
GeForce 6200
GeForce 6200 TurboCache
GeForce 6600
GeForce 6600 LE
GeForce 6600 GT
GeForce 6800 LE
GeForce 6800
GeForce 6800 GS
GeForce 6800 GT
GeForce 6800 Ultra
GeForce 6800 Ultra Extreme
GeForce 7300 GS
GeForce 7800 GT
GeForce 7800 GTX
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Supported nVidia Laptop Chipsets:

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GeForce Go 7800 GTX
GeForce Go 7800
GeForce Go 6800 Ultra
GeForce Go 6800
GeForce Go 7600(b)
GeForce Go 6600
GeForce FX Go 5700
GeForce Go 7400
GeForce Go 7300
GeForce Go 6400
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Supported ATI Laptop Chipsets:

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PCI Express Graphics Processors
Mobility™ Radeon® X1800 Series
Mobility™ Radeon® X1600
Mobility™ Radeon® X1400
Mobility™ Radeon® X1300
Mobility™ Radeon® X800
Mobility™ Radeon® X700
Mobility™ Radeon® X600
Mobility™ Radeon® X300

AGP Graphics Processors
Mobility™ Radeon® 9800
Mobility™ Radeon® 9700
Mobility™ Radeon® 9600
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Keep in mind that nothing is final until the game release, but this should help you prepare for what's sure to be the release of one heck of a role-playing game! Remember: October 31, 2006. Wait patiently.
October 10, 2006 1:53:23 AM

Go for it man. $239.99 for the X1900XT 256MB here.

No peer pressure or anything. 8)

I've been waiting for NWN2 and waiting and waiting.

I found a bug in the original NWN that at level 32 or 33 if you fight the nymphs or dwarfs in the snow globe that you get original experience points. I went from level 32 to 40 in a couple of hours.

Thank God that the 6600GT will be supported. I guess I'm glad I filled out the survey.
October 10, 2006 2:00:00 AM

I am surprised cards as low as the X1300 and 6200 series are on the "maximum eye candy" list. Seems to me that screenshots of the game look very good, will be interested to see benches when the game is released. Something makes me think that it will be "maximum eye candy" on those cards, but at 480 x 640 resolution :p 
October 10, 2006 2:29:37 AM

The card at ChiefValue has been in and out of my shoppping cart at home last night and even at work today. :) 

But I just did things in the wrong order. I need to go drink some beer now and hope NWN2 does come out at on October 31!
October 10, 2006 3:22:56 AM

You need a card now, buy the 7600GT. It's nearly as fast, and has more features than the X800/850XT.
October 10, 2006 4:31:43 AM

I just ordered a X1900XT 256MB card for $245.99 including shipping. I think I can live with it, and it does feel good to be done with my purchase. But then I come back facing new advice and pleasure being taken at my already depreciating video card.

If such a perchase was truly unwise, it is easy at this point to cancel my order. And it is somewhat of a stretch on a teacher's budget (with a family) with an increasing credit card debt, but not too much. Before too long, I want a NICE video card.

I know there are no prophets here, and I have followed the market somewhat. But I also know that there are people here WAY out of my league, and my friends think I am a genius and have a close eye on things. I know better; you guys are awesome! But this whole DX10 thing on the horizon seems different than the DX8 and DX9 changes, and I question whether the market will truly follow a similar path this time.

Perhaps I have asked for my hand to be held a little bit more on this upgrade, but I wanted to find a balance between logic and emotion, between making a wise choice and getting a nice video card.

If true wisdom is to cancel my order and purchase a 7600GT, then I would love feedback.

If an X1900XT is still one hell of a card for $249.99, and I am getting a lot of bang for my money, then I might keep it. So far, the most I have ever spent on a video card was $225 for my BBA 9800 Pro a few years back.

I do need a new card for my system, and I do not want to have to wait until NWN2 is actually released to buy one. And sellling off my card in a few months seems like a hastle, but it might be doable. I have a friend that is going to attempt to play NWN2 one day, and his computer is just going to freak out--he has some shared system memory PCIe card that came with a Dell or HP or some name brand computer.

So I guess now I am seeking assurance about my purchase or advice to cancel my order and stick it out with a 7600GT and wait for a while longer before I spend any real money.

But I am not a poster that is just playing around with ideas on a new card; I am ready to order and, in fact, I already have.

I do love you guys here, but you do know how to be blunt at times. :)  And I guess I just opened myself up to more frankness.
October 10, 2006 4:48:50 AM

You won't regret getting that X1900XT 256MB. Give DX10 at least six months after R600 comes out to mature. Maybe even a year from now would be better.

By then, you'll be sick of beating NWN2 a hundred thousand times and will be ready to get a DX10 card. ;-) Plus, it'll be close to the holiday season and Nvidia and ATI will be giving away DX10 cards. Well, almost. 8)
October 10, 2006 10:56:21 AM

Uh, NWN 2? Expect generally slightly worse looking graphics than in Oblivion but with the same 15-25 FPS in some areas on an X1900 card with maximum graphics and especially with all shadows turned on at resolutions 1280x1024 or higher. It's a good idea to wait till November and read other people's comments on how it performs on their systems.
!