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Second Take: Gambling on Game Delays

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March 27, 2008 3:29:08 PM

Ben and Rob play bookie and set the odds of high-profile games making their release dates in 2008.

Watch Video: http://www.tomsgames.com/us/site/flash_videos/second_take_gambling_on_game_delays.html

Anybody want to make a wager (not a real wager of course)?

-Ben

More about : gambling game delays

March 27, 2008 7:02:50 PM

No mention of Gran Turismo 5....
March 28, 2008 2:56:01 AM

What about The next WoW expansion.
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March 28, 2008 12:07:45 PM

So what do we have? (it would've been helpful to have some subtitles to denote the odds stated... :p )

  • StarCraft 2 - 10:1
  • Resident Evil 5 - 70:1
  • Fallout 3 - 5:2
  • Spore - 3:2
  • Left For Dead - 9:2
  • The Force Unleashed - 7:1

    StarCraft 2? I'm not quite willing to make a bet on it either way. I suppose that at this point, chances are solid in favor of it. I can't say I have all that much experience with Blizzard's work, though what I do know suggests that they may very likely make a fall release date. I'd probably be in favor of it, though only with moderate confidence.

    Resident Evil 5... I think the case was laid out well enough for it. I wouldn't place a bet AGAINST it purely because odds would mean that my money would be better put to use on other bets. But I'll call that it won't make it. :p 

    I'd place a bet in favor of Fallout 3 coming out this year, knowing Bethesda pretty well. They're well known for witholding a lot of information, lest they have to retract it. (they've had to retract SOME things in the past, but they've been loathe to do so) If they were confident enough to lay out a release date like that, I think that chances are good that content-wise, the game's pretty close to finished. Some voice-acting, swapping out some place-holders with final art, etc... And of course, further optimization (though it looks like they might not need so much here this time around) but most importantly, bug-testing. The "silence" about it? Does anyone remember Oblivion's utter lack of a gameplay trailer publicly available for the longest time? They like to not give out information. So in short, I'd confidently put a strong bet on it.

    Then there's Spore. I'm actually NOT as confident in it as I am Fallout 3's release, but I'd still call at least ONE version ariving. I would not be surprised if we only do get one version this year, and have to wait for others.

    As for Left for Dead... To be honest, I've not been paying all that much attention to this, even though I've been mildly familiar with it. So in this case, I'll have to pass on making a call.

    Lastly comes The Force Unleashed. Major title, everyone's been waiting for it... And for quite a while. And the release date still seems to be sitting pretty close. So even if a delay's possible, it's doubtful, I think, that it'd push it into next year. So I'd place money on this one as well.
    April 3, 2008 4:52:28 PM

    Quote:
    Lastly comes The Force Unleashed. Major title, everyone's been waiting for it... And for quite a while. And the release date still seems to be sitting pretty close. So even if a delay's possible, it's doubtful, I think, that it'd push it into next year. So I'd place money on this one as well.


    It may be that my 7 to 1 odds may have been a bit long:

    From LucasArts website:
    SAN FRANCISCO, CA - April 3, 2008 -- LucasArts today announced that its highly anticipated videogame Star Wars®: The Force Unleashed™ will be released on September 16, 2008 in the United States, September 17 in Southeast Asia and Australia, and September 19 in Europe.

    So, Nottheking, I'm already down to you a few bucks. Not surprising to anyone who has seen me gamble.

    -Ben
    April 8, 2008 7:28:32 PM

    I still believe SC2 will be released this year, IF Wrath of the Lich King is pushed to 2009 (it is a possibiliy, as Blizz has said they would release something like Sunwell 2.4 if WotLK gets pushed), alot has been shown in playtests (I mean they're actually playing the game, seems like they're just balancing units out at this point). If it did come out, I would expect it no later than november.

    But that's if WotLK is delayed to Q1 2009, I don't think Blizzard wants those two out at the same time. Either way, I think we'll find out soon.. end of june is Blizzcon or w/e with WotLK playtest.
    !