The GDDR3 vs DDR3 difference, won't affect performance very much at all.
I'd got the X1950 personally, as ATI added a threaded dispatch shader which all the X1800 models lack. The 'summary' specs might not look at good on paper, but if you look at the full techdoc/whitepaper specs the X1950 stands out much more.
Of course, comparing them in Doom 3, Quake 4, Prey, Half-Life 2, etc would prob be the best idea.
http://www.tomshardware.com/graphics/index.html
http://www23.tomshardware.com/graphics.html
Today the X1800 might be 5% faster in a few tests, in most the X1950 will be 10% faster. However in the long run - the next 4 years - the X1950 will be performing +80% faster than the X1800 under heavy loads.
http://www23.tomshardware.com/graphics.html?modelx=33&model1=552&model2=607&chart=230
The above link is a good indicator of 'future software' trends, and shows the X1950 with a +80% advantage in more shader heavy apps.
Note: To run Obvlivion you'll likely want FSAA off on either card, which puts the X1950 in front. With FSAA enabled in Oblivion being the only test the X1800 will win on, just both will give unacceptable FSAA performance in that game anyway....
If money is a problem look at:
http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.asp?Item=N82E16814102061
Sapphire varient of the same card, same X1950 Pro GPU, but costs much less.
You also need to remember that textures compress at 8:1 or so, using DXTC and S3TC, so having 512 MB video memory isn't all that important.
Sure it helps, but by the time you really need it you'll want to run med/med-high texture quality on this card anyway just to keep performance up - this will use less video memory down the track, and maybe run FSAA 2x/4x in some titles - bear in mind this is 18+ months from now I'm talking about.
The
Sapphire Radeon X1950 Pro with 256 MB costs 2/3rd as much as the Connect 3D Radeon X1800 XT with 512 MB.