Here is mine:

AMD is first to market with a 1 die solution for Quad Core, but it is a paper launch.

Intel launches its 45nm 1 die quad core within weeks of AMD's launch and it out performs AMD's processors. Intel shortly after releases a 2 die 8 core processor to combat the 4X4 and then just before the end of 2007 annouces it will soon release an 8 core 1 die solution that puts AMD so far behind that Intel stock reaches $40+/share and AMD stock slumps to $13/share range.

In late 2007 Sandman posts "AMD is now slightly behind Intel, but there processors outperform Intels in all MS Word benchmarks so I will still stick with AMD." The post is secretly typed on an Intel Penncrest system running word.

The Moderators should sticky this Thread and lock it on NewYears so people can revisit peoples predictions throughout 2007 and can see who got what right.

well its rather simple, AMD has been fucking up alot lately. i think at best AMD's quad core will match the core 2 quadro, and be able to beat it at power efficiency (a natural result of the 4 cores being fused on 1 die)

torrenza while novel in its socket implantation, it has been done before in various ways (DVD accelerators for video cards, sounds cards that take over the brunt of audio decoding and processing tasks from the CPU, even the GPU is like this in that its an accelerator for graphics.... you know they once called them that too) torrenza will mostly make it easy for workstations, and the average joe to use the cell processor.

AMD's Fusion will probably only lead to more power efficient laptops, and pave the way for more multi core dies with cores that are physically different.

AMD seems to be pushing for a less expensive upgrade route with DDR standards, one thing i agree with alot.

4x4 or quadFX is bust, it might (and i stress might) put it above intel when you can put 2 quad cores in it. but that will be something that few would indulge in.

what AMD should be doing, is redesigning their K8 core almost from the ground up, because short of making it scale higher in frequency (and all K8's basically hit the wall at 3.2ghz) it cannot compete with core 2 in any way but price performance ratio.

otherwise AMD is getting their ass handed to them by intel

intel if they are smart will press their advantage and make a native quad core as to not let AMD get the one up on them in any way. they will also have to match torrenza, simply because the cell is to good to just let AMD get all the money in it.

i think what will happen is AMD will return to what its good at (the enterprise sector), make a ton of money off of torrenza, and do a complete core redesign, and then let Intel really have it in a couple years, and then the consumer sector will reap the benefits of this (kinda like how intel spent all that time getting its butt kicked with netburst, then finally released something awesome). in the mean time, intel will make alot of money, like it always does, and AMD will be the underdog that peeps love to root for, whether or not it really is better then intel .

December 2007.

After the fallout from the DOJ investigations and the precipitous drop in share price from the cancellation of the Dell supply contract, AMD was purchased at firesale price by Intel.

intel wouldn't dare do that, because the DOJ would be on their tales for anti trust violations in a heartbeat. losing the contract to dell wouldn't hurt AMD much at all, because most of their money comes from the enterprise sector, intel is the one that needs to be in the desktop market to survive, if all goes to hell then AMD will just go back to selling opterons and drop their whole desktop line. and we wont see them for a couple years.

I don't think you'll see a multisocket desktop or more than 4-cores from Intel until 2008-09. Intel plans on CSI (their version of HyperTransport) and an IMC in 2008. I think going more than 4 cores will finally start stressing the fsb.

In 2007, I think Intel will push up the clockspeeds (they have plenty of room to push), and release their new "value" chips such as the E4300.

Intel will also be pushing out new mobo's such as the Bearlake - and moving to DDR3 and PCIe 2.0.

AMD will release Barcelona and socket AM2+. Barcelona will be a server (and 4x4) chip - I don't know if they will be able to bring the technology fully to the desktop by the end of 2007. I think they will increase clockspeed for their desktop chips by a little once they're fully at 65nm, but I'm not sure how much play their current µarch is going to give them.

In 2007, I think the big news for developments will be with Nvidia and ATI. They have already announced megapower GPU updates, and hopefully after Vista is released with DX10, they will focus on optimizing their CPUs with better thermal/power levels.

Ok, I'll change my prediction.

December 2007.

After the fallout from the DOJ investigations and the precipitous drop in share price from the cancellation of the Dell supply contract, AMD was purchased at firesale price by Microsoft!

8)

Well, I wouldn't count on K8L not scaling. It might not be as much of a rework as Core is of the P3. But, once, a while ago, the P3 wouldn't scale, so then came the P4. So, K8L may, or may not scale, can't base the judgement on current scaling of K8. But, you guys just keep on trying to stir crap up, because anyone with common sense, knows that AMD is about to release a redisgn of K8, and is not going to just get bought out after years of barley hanging on.

wes

Why do we stir crap up? Well, mostly 'cuz it's fun! What's the point of coming onto a forum like this if you can't throw a Moulinex into the manure pile every once in a while?

I think you have identified it. That is the problem right there. If AMD had been hanging onto CPU development and superb marketing instead of barley, they'd be in much better shape.

JUST KIDDIN' WES! DON'T RIP MY HEAD OFF!!!

I could tell what you guys were doing. It was obvious, just don't want the idiots coming in here and ruining what could be some interesting predictions.
Not going to rip your head off, normally don't react to people like that in here.
I am just interested in some legit ideas, and legitamate rumors of what is to come. Thats all. Don't worry, I try not to be a fanatic, and normally try not to provoke them.

wes

Edit: we are the only two people posting, toms needs a chat room I guess.

I guess it's still pretty early in North America... they'll all rise and shine soon, I'm sure! As for you ripping my head off it was about your "barley" typo, I was just having a bit of fun at your expense.

In all honesty, I see Dec. '07 not being that different from Dec. '06. I can see the middle part of the market being migrated to dual cores to an even greater degree but I would be highly surprised if there is any platform that can significantly exceed QX6700 performance. That may likely come in '08. Just my 2 cents!

personally I don't do the I see in my crystal ball thing so being the patient dude that I am, I'll wait and see.

Hell, I'd be damn happy just to be sure that I would be alive in Dec. 07!

Haha,

Didn't even catch my typo, good one though.

As far as QX6700, if K8L can compete with Core 2, then AMD quad will compete with the Intel Quads. At least it seems logical that they would. But who knows, K8L might experience major issues, and it might not perform like we hope.

wes

I'm with you in that I would be interested in some informed speculations as well as some intelligent discussion about processor developments in 2007. But unfortunately, given the bias that permeates these forums, with the OP's message being a perfect example, I do not have any expectations of anything productive coming out of this thread.

+1 post for me

Yeah, wes, the typo was a good one!

K8L seems to be held as the Holy Grail by "some" and I'm really wondering whether the whole thing is just gonna be lunchbag letdown when it finally arrives. I remember being really excited about Windsor 5000+ and by the time it finally shipped it was as thrilling as a peanut butter sandwich. Then everything got shifted onto 4x4. "Wait until you see this..." and it was somewhat of a damp squib. QuadFX is a disappointment pretty well across the board. A multifarous kludge of brobdinagian complexity designed for a severely circumscribed market.

Chunky, I may not be able to provide intelligent discussion but who else do you know that can put multifarous, brobdinagian, and circumscribed into the same sentence?

AMD will be down to 5% again. Unless Intels HQ explodes, theres no hope for AMD cause it looks like Intel has taken the story very seriously this time.

I understand what you are saying, but, I really wasn't to excited by 4x4, and didn't really expect the performance difference to be any better than X2 to Core 2 Duo. I mean, you are putting two X2's against 2 Core 2's. How would it be better all of the sudden? I don't know, maybe I missed something.

Anyway, just from looking at the arch. changes, the common theme seems to be that K8L should either match, or beat core 2. That is, if all is at it seems, and if nothing get's botched.

wes

My prediction, based on a bit of truth, a bit of history, and a shiat-ton of speculation is that AMD will start focusing more and more on the enterprise/server market and maybe low-end consumer. Their fusion might dominate mobile technologies for a while, but Intel will most likely strike back.

Either way, AMD has the upper-hand in servers right now, so if they keep up the work there, then that will last them a long time. Their consumer market will start to see serious problems becase of the C2D, but if they downplay their consumer market in general, or focus on the low-end where performance doesn't matter as much as cost, they might squeak by. Mobile wise, Turion still can't compare to Intel's Mobile assets, although merging with ATI will help them a lot in this category. Fusion might turn the tables around depending on when it comes out and how well it does, but that remains to be seen.

Yeah, it's kinda like when everybody and his brother were writing off Apple as a lunatic fringe computer company and then Jobs came back and kicked some serious bollocks. Intel has taken it on the chin for a very long time in the enthusiast market, but if we back off and get some perspective, C2D/C2Q is some incredibly impressive technology that makes its impact where it counts: In sheer performance. And I repeat, I've been an AMD guy for many years and over a dozen systems! But there is nothing coming out of AMD, even the paper 65nm, that is going to knock Intel off the throne right now anyway.

K8L matching C2D is going to be IMHO a day late and a dollar short. It will be just as hohum if they come in at 5% or 10% over in the price/performance. Let's face it. C2D trounces AMD topend right now. AMD needs a dealt royal flush to kick Intel's a$$ and I just don't see any on the horizon. I may be wrong and in a way I hope I am so that all the years I spent loyal to AMD would be worth something in the future.

Again IMHO, Quad FX is only going to be considered king of the heap once I can plug in 2 x quadcore FXs in the slots. Now we're cooking with gas. But if you try to put C2Q up against Quad FX dualcore in the vast majority of "enthusiast" utilizations, it's like propping up Joan Rivers in a bikini against Pam Anderson. Which one you gonna go for?