Future predictions in CPU wars. Only 2007 predictions

[Major_Spittle]

Here is mine:

AMD is first to market with a 1 die solution for Quad Core, but it is a paper launch.

Intel launches its 45nm 1 die quad core within weeks of AMD's launch and it out performs AMD's processors. Intel shortly after releases a 2 die 8 core processor to combat the 4X4 and then just before the end of 2007 annouces it will soon release an 8 core 1 die solution that puts AMD so far behind that Intel stock reaches $40+/share and AMD stock slumps to $13/share range.

In late 2007 Sandman posts "AMD is now slightly behind Intel, but there processors outperform Intels in all MS Word benchmarks so I will still stick with AMD." The post is secretly typed on an Intel Penncrest system running word. :lol:

The Moderators should sticky this Thread and lock it on NewYears so people can revisit peoples predictions throughout 2007 and can see who got what right.

 

[almerac]

Here is mine:

AMD is first to market with a 1 die solution for Quad Core, but it is a paper launch.

Intel launches its 45nm 1 die quad core within weeks of AMD's launch and it out performs AMD's processors. Intel shortly after releases a 2 die 8 core processor to combat the 4X4 and then just before the end of 2007 annouces it will soon release an 8 core 1 die solution that puts AMD so far behind that Intel stock reaches $40+/share and AMD stock slumps to $13/share range.

In late 2007 Sandman posts "AMD is now slightly behind Intel, but there processors outperform Intels in all MS Word benchmarks so I will still stick with AMD." The post is secretly typed on an Intel Penncrest system running word. :lol:

The Moderators should sticky this Thread and lock it on NewYears so people can revisit peoples predictions throughout 2007 and can see who got what right.

well its rather simple, AMD has been fucking up alot lately. i think at best AMD's quad core will match the core 2 quadro, and be able to beat it at power efficiency (a natural result of the 4 cores being fused on 1 die)

torrenza while novel in its socket implantation, it has been done before in various ways (DVD accelerators for video cards, sounds cards that take over the brunt of audio decoding and processing tasks from the CPU, even the GPU is like this in that its an accelerator for graphics.... you know they once called them that too) :lol: torrenza will mostly make it easy for workstations, and the average joe to use the cell processor.

AMD's Fusion will probably only lead to more power efficient laptops, and pave the way for more multi core dies with cores that are physically different.

AMD seems to be pushing for a less expensive upgrade route with DDR standards, one thing i agree with alot.

4x4 or quadFX is bust, it might (and i stress might) put it above intel when you can put 2 quad cores in it. but that will be something that few would indulge in.

what AMD should be doing, is redesigning their K8 core almost from the ground up, because short of making it scale higher in frequency (and all K8's basically hit the wall at 3.2ghz) it cannot compete with core 2 in any way but price performance ratio.

otherwise AMD is getting their ass handed to them by intel

intel if they are smart will press their advantage and make a native quad core as to not let AMD get the one up on them in any way. they will also have to match torrenza, simply because the cell is to good to just let AMD get all the money in it.

i think what will happen is AMD will return to what its good at (the enterprise sector), make a ton of money off of torrenza, and do a complete core redesign, and then let Intel really have it in a couple years, and then the consumer sector will reap the benefits of this (kinda like how intel spent all that time getting its butt kicked with netburst, then finally released something awesome). in the mean time, intel will make alot of money, like it always does, and AMD will be the underdog that peeps love to root for, whether or not it really is better then intel .

 

[CaptRobertApril]

December 2007.

After the fallout from the DOJ investigations and the precipitous drop in share price from the cancellation of the Dell supply contract, AMD was purchased at firesale price by Intel.

:twisted:

 

[almerac]

December 2007.

After the fallout from the DOJ investigations and the precipitous drop in share price from the cancellation of the Dell supply contract, AMD was purchased at firesale price by Intel.

:twisted:

intel wouldn't dare do that, because the DOJ would be on their tales for anti trust violations in a heartbeat. losing the contract to dell wouldn't hurt AMD much at all, because most of their money comes from the enterprise sector, intel is the one that needs to be in the desktop market to survive, if all goes to hell then AMD will just go back to selling opterons and drop their whole desktop line. and we wont see them for a couple years.

 

[exit2dos]

I don't think you'll see a multisocket desktop or more than 4-cores from Intel until 2008-09. Intel plans on CSI (their version of HyperTransport) and an IMC in 2008. I think going more than 4 cores will finally start stressing the fsb.

In 2007, I think Intel will push up the clockspeeds (they have plenty of room to push), and release their new "value" chips such as the E4300.

Intel will also be pushing out new mobo's such as the Bearlake - and moving to DDR3 and PCIe 2.0.

AMD will release Barcelona and socket AM2+. Barcelona will be a server (and 4x4) chip - I don't know if they will be able to bring the technology fully to the desktop by the end of 2007. I think they will increase clockspeed for their desktop chips by a little once they're fully at 65nm, but I'm not sure how much play their current µarch is going to give them.

In 2007, I think the big news for developments will be with Nvidia and ATI. They have already announced megapower GPU updates, and hopefully after Vista is released with DX10, they will focus on optimizing their CPUs with better thermal/power levels.

 

[CaptRobertApril]

intel wouldn't dare do that, because the DOJ would be on their tales for anti trust violations in a heartbeat. losing the contract to dell wouldn't hurt AMD much at all, because most of their money comes from the enterprise sector, intel is the one that needs to be in the desktop market to survive, if all goes to hell then AMD will just go back to selling opterons and drop their whole desktop line. and we wont see them for a couple years.

Ok, I'll change my prediction.

December 2007.

After the fallout from the DOJ investigations and the precipitous drop in share price from the cancellation of the Dell supply contract, AMD was purchased at firesale price by Microsoft!

8)

 

[weskurtz81]

Well, I wouldn't count on K8L not scaling. It might not be as much of a rework as Core is of the P3. But, once, a while ago, the P3 wouldn't scale, so then came the P4. So, K8L may, or may not scale, can't base the judgement on current scaling of K8. But, you guys just keep on trying to stir crap up, because anyone with common sense, knows that AMD is about to release a redisgn of K8, and is not going to just get bought out after years of barley hanging on.

wes

 

[CaptRobertApril]

But, you guys just keep on trying to stir crap up, because anyone with common sense, knows that AMD is about to release a redisgn of K8, and is not going to just get bought out after years of barley hanging on.

Why do we stir crap up? Well, mostly 'cuz it's fun! What's the point of coming onto a forum like this if you can't throw a Moulinex into the manure pile every once in a while?

I think you have identified it. That is the problem right there. If AMD had been hanging onto CPU development and superb marketing instead of barley, they'd be in much better shape.

JUST KIDDIN' WES! DON'T RIP MY HEAD OFF!!! :lol:

 

[weskurtz81]

I could tell what you guys were doing. It was obvious, just don't want the idiots coming in here and ruining what could be some interesting predictions.
Not going to rip your head off, normally don't react to people like that in here.
I am just interested in some legit ideas, and legitamate rumors of what is to come. Thats all. Don't worry, I try not to be a fanatic, and normally try not to provoke them.

wes

Edit: we are the only two people posting, toms needs a chat room I guess.

 

[CaptRobertApril]

I could tell what you guys were doing. It was obvious, just don't want the idiots coming in here and ruining what could be some interesting predictions.
Not going to rip your head off, normally don't react to people like that in here.
I am just interested in some legit ideas, and legitamate rumors of what is to come. Thats all. Don't worry, I try not to be a fanatic, and normally try not to provoke them.

wes

Edit: we are the only two people posting, toms needs a chat room I guess.

I guess it's still pretty early in North America... they'll all rise and shine soon, I'm sure! As for you ripping my head off it was about your "barley" typo, I was just having a bit of fun at your expense.

In all honesty, I see Dec. '07 not being that different from Dec. '06. I can see the middle part of the market being migrated to dual cores to an even greater degree but I would be highly surprised if there is any platform that can significantly exceed QX6700 performance. That may likely come in '08. Just my 2 cents!

 

[Dade_0182]

personally I don't do the I see in my crystal ball thing so being the patient dude that I am, I'll wait and see.

 

[CaptRobertApril]

personally I don't do the I see in my crystal ball thing so being the patient dude that I am, I'll wait and see.

Hell, I'd be damn happy just to be sure that I would be alive in Dec. 07! :lol:

 

[weskurtz81]

Haha,

Didn't even catch my typo, good one though.

As far as QX6700, if K8L can compete with Core 2, then AMD quad will compete with the Intel Quads. At least it seems logical that they would. But who knows, K8L might experience major issues, and it might not perform like we hope.

wes

 

[chunkymonster]

I could tell what you guys were doing. It was obvious, just don't want the idiots coming in here and ruining what could be some interesting predictions...I am just interested in some legit ideas, and legitamate rumors of what is to come. Thats all.

I'm with you in that I would be interested in some informed speculations as well as some intelligent discussion about processor developments in 2007. But unfortunately, given the bias that permeates these forums, with the OP's message being a perfect example, I do not have any expectations of anything productive coming out of this thread.

+1 post for me

 

[CaptRobertApril]

Yeah, wes, the typo was a good one! :lol:

K8L seems to be held as the Holy Grail by "some" and I'm really wondering whether the whole thing is just gonna be lunchbag letdown when it finally arrives. I remember being really excited about Windsor 5000+ and by the time it finally shipped it was as thrilling as a peanut butter sandwich. Then everything got shifted onto 4x4. "Wait until you see this..." and it was somewhat of a damp squib. QuadFX is a disappointment pretty well across the board. A multifarous kludge of brobdinagian complexity designed for a severely circumscribed market.

Chunky, I may not be able to provide intelligent discussion but who else do you know that can put multifarous, brobdinagian, and circumscribed into the same sentence? :twisted:

 

[Ycon]

AMD will be down to 5% again. Unless Intels HQ explodes, theres no hope for AMD cause it looks like Intel has taken the story very seriously this time.

 

[weskurtz81]

I understand what you are saying, but, I really wasn't to excited by 4x4, and didn't really expect the performance difference to be any better than X2 to Core 2 Duo. I mean, you are putting two X2's against 2 Core 2's. How would it be better all of the sudden? I don't know, maybe I missed something.

Anyway, just from looking at the arch. changes, the common theme seems to be that K8L should either match, or beat core 2. That is, if all is at it seems, and if nothing get's botched.

wes

 

[Doughbuy]

My prediction, based on a bit of truth, a bit of history, and a shiat-ton of speculation is that AMD will start focusing more and more on the enterprise/server market and maybe low-end consumer. Their fusion might dominate mobile technologies for a while, but Intel will most likely strike back.

Either way, AMD has the upper-hand in servers right now, so if they keep up the work there, then that will last them a long time. Their consumer market will start to see serious problems becase of the C2D, but if they downplay their consumer market in general, or focus on the low-end where performance doesn't matter as much as cost, they might squeak by. Mobile wise, Turion still can't compare to Intel's Mobile assets, although merging with ATI will help them a lot in this category. Fusion might turn the tables around depending on when it comes out and how well it does, but that remains to be seen.

 

[CaptRobertApril]

AMD will be down to 5% again. Unless Intels HQ explodes, theres no hope for AMD cause it looks like Intel has taken the story very seriously this time.

Yeah, it's kinda like when everybody and his brother were writing off Apple as a lunatic fringe computer company and then Jobs came back and kicked some serious bollocks. Intel has taken it on the chin for a very long time in the enthusiast market, but if we back off and get some perspective, C2D/C2Q is some incredibly impressive technology that makes its impact where it counts: In sheer performance. And I repeat, I've been an AMD guy for many years and over a dozen systems! But there is nothing coming out of AMD, even the paper 65nm, that is going to knock Intel off the throne right now anyway.

I understand what you are saying, but, I really wasn't to excited by 4x4, and didn't really expect the performance difference to be any better than X2 to Core 2 Duo. I mean, you are putting two X2's against 2 Core 2's. How would it be better all of the sudden? I don't know, maybe I missed something.

Anyway, just from looking at the arch. changes, the common theme seems to be that K8L should either match, or beat core 2. That is, if all is at it seems, and if nothing get's botched.

wes

K8L matching C2D is going to be IMHO a day late and a dollar short. It will be just as hohum if they come in at 5% or 10% over in the price/performance. Let's face it. C2D trounces AMD topend right now. AMD needs a dealt royal flush to kick Intel's a$$ and I just don't see any on the horizon. I may be wrong and in a way I hope I am so that all the years I spent loyal to AMD would be worth something in the future.

Again IMHO, Quad FX is only going to be considered king of the heap once I can plug in 2 x quadcore FXs in the slots. Now we're cooking with gas. But if you try to put C2Q up against Quad FX dualcore in the vast majority of "enthusiast" utilizations, it's like propping up Joan Rivers in a bikini against Pam Anderson. Which one you gonna go for?

 

[Gneisenau]

...

Chunky, I may not be able to provide intelligent discussion but who else do you know that can put multifarous, brobdinagian, and circumscribed into the same sentence? :twisted:

He has a good point, I would have never thought of doing that...

 

[CaptRobertApril]

...

Chunky, I may not be able to provide intelligent discussion but who else do you know that can put multifarous, brobdinagian, and circumscribed into the same sentence? :twisted:

He has a good point, I would have never thought of doing that...

:trophy: :lol:

 

[MU_Engineer]

Here is mine:

1. AMD 65nm chips become widespread just after New Year's. They overclock decently so that the low-end Athlon 64 X2s become roughly as popular as the Core 2 Duo E6300 as it can OC to rival the E6300's OCing performance but is less expensive.

2. AMD also releases 65nm Opterons. These will have a 65W TDP for the normal units (up to 3.0 GHz,) a 35-45W TDP for the HE units, and there will be a 3.2 GHz SE unit with about an 80W TDP. AMD will sell quite a few of these as they will run cooler than a Woodcrest/Tulsa platform and not take hot, expensive, slow FB-DIMMs.

3. RAM prices creep slowly back down to roughly $85-90/GB for midrange RAM by the middle of the year. Not quite down to the early 2006 levels of $70-75/GB, but more reasonable than $110-120+/GB.

4. NVIDIA will finally release their 650i chipset and sells a bundle of them. Intel is forced to release a new performance chipset to replace 975X. It will support a 1333 MHz FSB.

5. Intel hurries up the switch of the socket 771 Xeons from FB-DIMMs to buffered DDR3 to battle the Opteron DP and MPs.

6. Intel boosts the Core 2 Duo Extreme's clock speed to 3.2 GHz (X6900) and relabels the X6800 as the E6800. Drops prices slightly on the Core 2 Duo line.

7. Intel also releases the Core 2 Quadro Q6600/1066 FSB and downlabels the QX6700 as the Q6700, drops the price a little. They replace the QX6700 with the QX6800, a 3.00 GHz on a 1333 FSB and it runs on the new Intel 1333 FSB chipset. The chip performs well but has a 160W TDP and runs very hot.

8. AMD releases 65nm QuadFX chips, the FX-80 (2.8 GHz) FX-82 (3.0 GHz) and FX-84 (3.2 GHz.) These run a lot cooler than the FX-70s and with Vista supporting NUMA, the 3.2 GHz FX-84s slightly beat the QX6800 overall and consume only a little more power than the QX6800 unit. The QuadFX also runs on an AMD/ATi chipset now.

9. Intel ships some Xeon Clovertown 5300 series CPUs but most people go with the Woodcrests or Opterons because FSB choking is limiting scaling on some server-type apps. Intel responds by releasing the DDR3 Xeon chipset with dual 1600 MHz busses and the monolithic-die Xeon 5400s with 8MB L2 + 8MB L3 in one fell swoop. This improves performance significantly and Intel sells quite a few.

10. AMD releases the K8L arch. The first chips released are the Barcelona and Shanghai Opterons. These have HT 3.0 and support registered DDR2-1066 or DDR3-1333. They outperform the Xeon 5400s by a significant margin. The Agena desktop chips come next and outperform the Kentsfields by 10-20% clock for clock in most cases and run much cooler.

11. Intel starts to make 45nm quad-core chips on 1600 MHz FSBs. There is a new desktop chipset that has a 1600 MHz FSB to support them as well as DDR3-1333. These chips are released at up to 3.6 GHz on the desktop and use their clock speed advantage over the ~3.0 GHz top Agena to perform roughly similar on non-memory-hogging applications. They lose to the Agena on memory-bound applications. The 45nm Intel server chips run cooler than the 65nm QCs but still suffer from FSB choking at higher speeds and heavier workloads.

12. Intel states plans to abandon the FSB and introduce a chip with an IMC and in the case of the Xeons, they adopt CSI but it suspiciously looks a lot more like HT 3.0 than the original CSI. They make plans for the new chips but they won't ship until midway through 2008.

 

[qcmadness]

AMD will be down to 5% again. Unless Intels HQ explodes, theres no hope for AMD cause it looks like Intel has taken the story very seriously this time.

There is little chance for AMD to get 5% market share only unless it executed really badly.

 

[rjbgames]

My prediction...

Well, look at the last 20 years of development...

For 2007 I see more of same. There will be successes and failures from both camps. Research will march on, lessons will be learned and, ultimately, we the computer tinkerers will benefit in a big way.

Ya gotta love progress even when there are potholes in the road! 8)

 

[qcmadness]

Here is mine:

2. AMD also releases 65nm Opterons. These will have a 65W TDP for the normal units (up to 3.0 GHz,) a 35-45W TDP for the HE units, and there will be a 3.2 GHz SE unit with about an 80W TDP. AMD will sell quite a few of these as they will run cooler than a Woodcrest/Tulsa platform and not take hot, expensive, slow FB-DIMMs.

6. Intel boosts the Core 2 Duo Extreme's clock speed to 3.2 GHz (X6900) and relabels the X6800 as the E6800. Drops prices slightly on the Core 2 Duo line.

8. AMD releases 65nm QuadFX chips, the FX-80 (2.8 GHz) FX-82 (3.0 GHz) and FX-84 (3.2 GHz.) These run a lot cooler than the FX-70s and with Vista supporting NUMA, the 3.2 GHz FX-84s slightly beat the QX6800 overall and consume only a little more power than the QX6800 unit. The QuadFX also runs on an AMD/ATi chipset now.

9. Intel ships some Xeon Clovertown 5300 series CPUs but most people go with the Woodcrests or Opterons because FSB choking is limiting scaling on some server-type apps. Intel responds by releasing the DDR3 Xeon chipset with dual 1600 MHz busses and the monolithic-die Xeon 5400s with 8MB L2 + 8MB L3 in one fell swoop. This improves performance significantly and Intel sells quite a few.

10. AMD releases the K8L arch. The first chips released are the Barcelona and Shanghai Opterons. These have HT 3.0 and support registered DDR2-1066 or DDR3-1333. They outperform the Xeon 5400s by a significant margin. The Agena desktop chips come next and outperform the Kentsfields by 10-20% clock for clock in most cases and run much cooler.

2. Opteron lines are the last to be converted to 65nm

6. E6800 may be cancelled, according to the author of HKEPC

8. Since A64 FX 4x4 are renamed Opterons, 65nm versions will be announced late in 2007.

9. It seems that the FSB is not the limiting factor for Core Architecture NOW.

10. Agree with you