Intel's vs. AMD vs. the Stock Market

[Major_Spittle]

OK, there is a lot of info. out about AMD and Intels roadmap now. AMD looked great as a growth company before C2D got released and still looked good as a growth company afterwards.

Now, AMD has released nothing to be optimistic about in their 4X4 or their behind schedule 65nm parts. It appears that their 65nm Quad is having issues in production and from the Hands off demo it appears that might just hit the market with the same fan fare as wet turd hitting a hot grill at the company picnic.

Then there is Intel. Out performing expectations at every turn the last year. Road map is advancing quickly and being pulled in constantly. Products and production methods becoming more advanced every release. Very stable processors that are clearly under clocked and have a lot of head room, yet may never have that potential realized because Intel will be on to the next process before AMD catches up enough to need to fully push their processors.

OK, I realize that AMD is 1/5th the company Intel is, therefore it is easier for them to grow. It is much easier to gain 20% more market share if you only have 20% vs. gaining 20% when you have 80% of the market.

BUT at what point do you say, "Shit AMD is over invested in Capital it may not need because it could actually loose market share!!!".
AND at what point do you say, "Shit Intel is really undervalued and is set to get back the market share it lost and then some!!!".

It really seems like an odd time right now. Intel is leaning out and over performing, yet stock is down 20% from 2.5 years ago. AMD on the other hand is becoming bloated and under performing, sure its stock is down recently, but it is still holding a realitively high value compared to 2.5 years ago when it had a much greater potential and outlook with very little overhead.

Is the CPU market in a big decline and I missed it, because I see huge untapped markets in India and China. Not to mention the computer market is becoming more of consumable with each passing technology. Hell, I don't keep a system more than 1.5 years.

And yes I realise the chip market is flooded NOW, but shouldn't people be looking out at least to the Next 8 months performance potetential when buying stock now?

Flame on.

 

[HotFoot]

I think investors are just uneasy about the price war that's going on. The profit margin for chips has been under assault, so even though AMD is having record sales, they aren't having record profits. What do shareholders really care about after all?

Then again, the price war is probably going to be over eventually. If I were investing and choosing between the two, I would try to pick the company that is both the most undervalued right now and has the best long-term outlook for growth potential and innovation. It's a tough choice, but I think now it is still time to buy Intel. I'd wait to buy AMD until part way into the new year, as their stock value is probably going to continue to whittle away until they have a processor for which they can justify actually charging a profit-margin laced price.

As for the market size, I can only imagine this growing and growing. When I was in high school, there was a single 486 computer to serve the whole family. Now me and the girlfriend have two computers on the go each. I'm not keeping the computers for any less time as you say you are doing, but I'm having more computers. I just find new uses for old boxes, like a handy media server. Oh yeah, and as you say, the emerging markets in Asia... well, that's huge no matter what business you're in.

 

[The_Abyss]

Both of these companies do far more than just make CPUs, and this is a CPU forum. Go figure.

 

[HotFoot]

... and Boeing does a lot more than just make airplanes, but when airlines aren't buying, they still have massive layoffs.

I think finances still fit in the CPU forum. The stock performance of Intel and AMD has a lot to do with where the CEO's will steer their companies research funding in the future, which comes back to us in terms of products a couple of years down the road.

 

[Major_Spittle]

I definately see what your saying about the current price war. I think I have a picture of what the market is going to be next year and I'm a lot more confident in my outlook than most investors.

I said back in September to my wife that I plan on holding the stock until it hits at least $27. At that time I told her that I would expect it to be at that level in the April - June time frame. While stock has gone up since then it seems to have stalled amid what I would consider a great outlook for Intel in Q1 and Q2 of 2007.

I guess like a lot of stocks now days there will be a huge buying rush that will only last 2-3 and it will come when a couple big investment companies start buying and people take notice.

With Intels current leadership in technology, production capabilities, Vista/DX10 release, P4 inventory dwindling, Intel cost cutting becoming realized (their sell off of bad acquisitions and layoffs) and AMDs only hope at taking back market share being released in late Q2, I can only imagine the Q1 and Q2 results being stellar. I think Vista will drive more sales that people think. I have ran Vista and love it. When other people start seeing Vista I think they will want it at and be willing to spend their money for it. This should create a decent upgrade cycle.

 

[qcmadness]

I definately see what your saying about the current price war. I think I have a picture of what the market is going to be next year and I'm a lot more confident in my outlook than most investors.

I said back in September to my wife that I plan on holding the stock until it hits at least $27. At that time I told her that I would expect it to be at that level in the April - June time frame. While stock has gone up since then it seems to have stalled amid what I would consider a great outlook for Intel in Q1 and Q2 of 2007.

I guess like a lot of stocks now days there will be a huge buying rush that will only last 2-3 and it will come when a couple big investment companies start buying and people take notice.

With Intels current leadership in technology, production capabilities, Vista/DX10 release, P4 inventory dwindling, Intel cost cutting becoming realized (their sell off of bad acquisitions and layoffs) and AMDs only hope at taking back market share being released in late Q2, I can only imagine the Q1 and Q2 results being stellar. I think Vista will drive more sales that people think. I have ran Vista and love it. When other people start seeing Vista I think they will want it at and be willing to spend their money for it. This should create a decent upgrade cycle.

The outlook is still unknown.
Business is not technology. Good products at right time at right price is the most important. Intel P-D shipments are far more than A64x2 because Intel priced them right.