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R600 Crucial to AMD's Continued Success

Last response: in Graphics & Displays
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January 5, 2007 3:22:44 AM

Hey guys. I wrote a little market analysis on AMD's future with the R600. I wrote it for shi*ts and giggles. Please don't flame... if you disagree simply state why and leave the insults for BaronMatrix to dish out.

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Now more than ever it seems AMD’s future is going to depend heavily on its newly acquired graphics division. In an age where a two year plan is one too many (just ask HP’s former CEO Carly Fiorina), investors are going to want to see a return, and soon. AMD’s financials are better than ever, but we’ve yet to see a full quarter’s results with Intel’s Core 2 Duo factored in. It’s almost a certainty that AMD will lose some market share in Q1 ’07 to Intel and now that AMD’s “K8L” and native Quad Core architecture is firmly delayed until late 2007, they’re going to have to depend on the R600 to keep investors happy. But it's highly unlikely that AMD will do any growing this year, even with a successful R600. Firstly, AMD borrowed heavily to purchase ATI and while profitable, it was no cash cow. Investors like to see organic growth, not growth through acquisitions. Secondly Intel owns the market share in graphics and is reportedly going to give it a second go in discrete graphics chips. And we've all seen what Intel can do with leadership under Otellini. Thirdly, nVidia has a steady secondary revenue stream with the PS3. AMD does have the X360, but despite strong sales this past holiday season, it isn’t going to outsell the PS2 and PS3 combined anytime soon. It's also no secret ATI practically gave the R500 away to get Microsoft's business. And to shake things up even further, Wii has been an enormous success. Finally nVidia has a very strong core logic platform and good corner on professional graphics with its Quadro line of GPU’s. Right now AMD isn’t doing particularly well in either of those markets despite its well reviewed core logic platform. The only place AMD can grow right now is graphics.

In short, AMD’s R600 is going to have to be one hell of a GPU to keep AMD looking good. Its success is going to make or break the newly formed graphics division. All things considered, nVidia’s 8800 series has been a huge success. And despite what some have said, people were willing to shell out $650 clams for a video card. Early this week several sites reported a delay in the R600 to March; more bad news. The greater the distance between generations the bigger the lead nVidia is going to get. And if anyone thinks nVidia’s sitting on its hands, you might want to reevaluate the world’s most successful graphics company. nVidia isn’t on top of discrete graphics because its a slouch. Don’t be surprised if nVidia releases a slew of mid-range DX10 cards when AMD launches the R600. Unfortunately for AMD, it’s lost out on a chance to charge a hefty premium for the R600. Had the R600 launched this month, they may have gotten away with $650. But with 8800 GTX cards now hovering around $550 and GTS’s going for a bargain $400, not many are going to pay for a $650 card that’ll deliver performance barely better. It’s also extremely unlikely AMD will be able to launch mid-range cards simultaneously, so they’ll miss out on that opportunity too.

But alas, there’s still hope for the little engine that could. AMD’s experience with GDDR4 memory puts it in a good position to push out future revisions of the R600 quicker. And another opportunity for AMD is its experience with 512bit memory interfaces, which to date nVidia’s done very little experimenting with. But nVidia could just as easily use those two technologies against AMD. Not to bash the former ATI, but nVidia has almost always been the pioneer in new graphics features and technology. To name a few, they were the first with on chip hardware T&L, pixel shading, SM 3.0, and DX10. ATI’s always been one step behind. But to be fair, ATI has always come back with a nasty punch whenever it releases a new generation. I'm sure the R600 won't be an exception, but it will have to pack the biggest punch yet. Finally, there’s always the benefit of owning your own fab. While no firm plans have been made for AMD to make its own graphics chips, it’s a foregone conclusion that it’ll eventually happen. Why does this matter? The cost of manufacturing GPU’s will reduce significantly once AMD tapes out ATI chips. Meanwhile nVidia has to continue paying TSMC to make its chips. And since there aren’t many small chip companies out there to buy that own modern fabs, it’ll likely stay that way for a long, long time.

Without a doubt the R600 will be the most important release for AMD since the Opteron. Hopefully, for the consumer’s sake, it’ll rock our world.
January 5, 2007 4:18:12 AM

overall I like your little blurr....

couple quick things though. 8800GTX while a great card, the says havent been astronomical by any means. and last, even if the R600 isnt the performance leader, I believer the Torenza platform is what could make/break AMD/TI. Having low power, cost efficient equipment still carries a large market, and AMD has found its place in the server and mobile area's with comfort.

still good stuff though jesse, keep it coming
January 5, 2007 5:57:08 AM

I'm considering the r600 despite a predicted high price just to support AMD (because I believe in competition and I would hate to see AMD/ATI die. :wink: ). Well of course its not all to support AMD/ATI I want a kick ass card too :twisted: . And the fact that I have never owned an ATI card intrigues me :)  .

BTW I read somewhere that pairing an 8800 with a 680i board would result in better performance. I believe this was the nVidia site though so I'm not trusting it so much yet.
Related resources
a b U Graphics card
January 5, 2007 9:36:37 AM

Quote:

But it's highly unlikely that AMD will do any growing this year, even with a successful R600. Firstly, AMD borrowed heavily to purchase ATI and while profitable, it was no cash cow.


No cash cow? Their margins were in the 50+% level, that's a cash cow, with 2+ billion in cash on hand at the time of the acquisition.

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Investors like to see organic growth, not growth through acquisitions.


Depends on the market, when you're in a medium growth or declining market growth through growth markets isn't a bad idea (as seen in the mobile acquisition in the phone market), unfortunately the graphics market had it's first quarter of contraction this past quarter.

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Thirdly, nVidia has a steady secondary revenue stream with both the PS2 and PS3.


Pfft, steady stream? Nah, the PS3 is a dud, and what money do they get for the PS2? Original Xbox maybe, but those sales are drying up, specifically because M$ wasn't happy with them.

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AMD does have the X360, but despite strong sales this past holiday season, it isn’t going to outsell the PS2 and PS3 combined anytime soon.


Check your figures, the X360 surpassed the PS2 in August, and has sold 5+ million units in the US sofar (2+ million from Nov to NewYear's), and 10+ worldwide according to NPD research. And the X360 outsold the combined sales of the Wii and PS3 during the holiday period worldwide. But remember that AMD/ATi also makes the Wii processor so AMD/ATi vs nV the sales are about 7 to 1, and total sales sofar from those new deals would be about 20+ to 1.

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And to shake things up even further, Wii has been an enormous success.


Less succesful than the X360 though despite being a new commodity, either way, more sales for AMD/ATi.

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Finally nVidia has a very strong core logic platform


And has just lost exclusivity of intel buddy-buddy with SIS now being given the nod from intel as well.

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good corner on professional graphics with its Quadro line of GPU’s.


Which is a costly portion of the business with very low margins and often a loss-leader.

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Right now AMD isn’t doing particularly well in either of those markets despite its well reviewed core logic platform. The only place AMD can grow right now is graphics.


Actually the AMD chipsets are fine, and better than most, the issue will be switching focus from intel to AMD, which doesn't happen quickly, but once it does, then end-to-end solutions will move the product regardless of others' performance since OEMs will look for bundles. This of course hurts nV who gets alot of current sales from AMD platforms.

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In short, AMD’s R600 is going to have to be one hell of a GPU to keep AMD looking good.


Well it will be required in order to make AMD look like they haven't got a dog on their hands, but the futureof AMD isn't so much wrapped up in the R600 as it's potential offspring. What will the profitable mid-range look like, what will it bring to the CPU+VPU core that AMD needs for it's future? Those are the important factors.

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Its success is going to make or break the newly formed graphics division.


It's not newly formed, it's newly acquired. It was formed long ago.

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All things considered, nVidia’s 8800 series has been a huge success.


Really? Sales were much lower than the GF7800 series, so how successful is it? And with the graphics pullback last quarter how succesful can anyone really consider themselves? The card is a great card, but I doubt it's anywhere near as profitable from nV as the GF7600 is or the X1900 seires is for ATi.

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And despite what some have said, people were willing to shell out $650 clams for a video card.


But not many of them (less than 4% of the market shelled out more than $250). And it's not the most profitable segment either. The big money maker and the big sales come in the $150-250 segment.

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The greater the distance between generations the bigger the lead nVidia is going to get. And if anyone thinks nVidia’s sitting on its hands, you might want to reevaluate the world’s most successful graphics company. nVidia isn’t on top of discrete graphics because its a slouch.


That statement is pretty much an ad for nV. Who said nV would sit on their hands? Also, isn't intel the most successful graphics company, and until AMD bought them weren't ATi outselling nV?

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Unfortunately for AMD, it’s lost out on a chance to charge a hefty premium for the R600.


Until you know what it is and how it compares to the competition how can you even make that claim? Once again too much cheerleading not enough objectivity.

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It’s also extremely unlikely AMD will be able to launch mid-range cards simultaneously, so they’ll miss out on that opportunity too.


Why is that extremely unlikely? They launched the X1800XL and X1300 at the same time, and the X1800XT and X1600Pro within a month of each other shippinh shortly afterwards, so it's not extremely unlikely especially if the production issues affect the R600 and not it's offspring. nV had a staggered launch last time and this time. I suspect that AMD/ATi will launch the whole lineup at the same time, but if anything they may do a staggered delivery like they did last time.

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AMD’s experience with GDDR4 memory puts it in a good position to push out future revisions of the R600 quicker. And another opportunity for AMD is its experience with 512bit memory interfaces, which to date nVidia’s done very little experimenting with.


And what production experience does ATi have with 512bit memory interface? Other that the ringbus which isn't even true 512bit so much as a segmented 256+256 composition. Only 3Dlabs had a shipping 512bit product and even that was different.

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But nVidia could just as easily use those two technologies against AMD.


How, by promoting slower is better, like the low-k is dangerous strategy?

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To name a few, they were the first with on chip hardware T&L, pixel shading, SM 3.0, and DX10. ATI’s always been one step behind.


Seriously that's pretty Fanboi-like talk there. The nV was a generation behind with the FX series, and ATi made the first single chip accelerator, first to output to TV, first with PS1.4/DX8.1, first with PS2.0/DX9, first with DDR2, first GDDR4, first with 110nm, first with low-K, first to 90nm, first to 80nm.... both companies have storied pasts, and both have led and followed.

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The cost of manufacturing GPU’s will reduce significantly once AMD tapes out ATI chips. Meanwhile nVidia has to continue paying TSMC to make its chips. And since there aren’t many small chip companies out there to buy that own modern fabs, it’ll likely stay that way for a long, long time.


Actually until AMD has enough capacity TSMC and UMC will conitnue to make the ATI parts, the one area that they may exploit is using AMD's R&D resources to reduce development costs which is the most expensive part of the process. I doubt they'll move anything to AMD fabs for a while (likely the 45nm IBM/AMD process will be the first to go AMD instead of TSMC/UMC).

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Without a doubt the R600 will be the most important release for AMD since the Opteron.


Maybe, but it's the offshoot/spin-off products/benifits that matter far more than the marquee/vanity/niche product the R600 is itself. Single produts likely more important to AMD's future would be their mobile refresh in the spring/summer, and their move to CPU+VPU system on a chip for their products for the low end PC, home entertainment, micro-servers, mobile, and industrial solutions.

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Hopefully, for the consumer’s sake, it’ll rock our world.


I agree with that. Main thing is to have people pushing the market forward, but the thing you totally ignore is the fact that the most important things to nV and AMD's future is their success in the low-mid range market with the new potential entrants (intel, VIA/S3, SIS) to this profitable segment where they make the money to pay for these marquee e-penis products.

The true future of both companies rests in their ability to survive that compeittion, especially from intel, and nV likely has the most to lose.

Some things to consider.
a b U Graphics card
January 5, 2007 11:27:48 AM

With all due respect I find your reasoning/statements false or short sided.The main reasons behind it for one can be found by the grape apes counters.What Ive found on thg is alot of leaning one way or the other for whomever a person prefers for their hardware.But the worse Ive read is the doom and gloom of this. When I read a story rant or opinion regaurding AMD,its usually ludicrous sounding like omgitsthelatestgreatestcomehitherallyouWONTbelievewhateventuallywillhappen crap,OR the short sided but well meaning worry(for competitions sake)or triumphant fanboyism of doom and gloom.Everyone here has to understand that joe blow out there DOESNT know what we know, BUT joe blow has the dough to make the difference.He's the one thatll buy the hype,WHOEVER is feeding it to him/her.When making statements as broad as THEYRE GOIN DOWN YA'LL just keep joe blow in mind.Like was said earlier,its NOT the gtx that sells,nor the xtx.Its the midrange that sells with joeblows money,I could go on but my point is made.I understand what youre saying and in a 'smarter world' youd be right, but really,do you think joe blow knows anything like we do?
January 5, 2007 1:58:51 PM

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying. All my opinion was trying to convey is that AMD is up against some stiff competition despite owning a graphics company. A lot of people are saying AMD/ATI is a stronger company, but that's yet to be realized. Like I said early on, a two year plan is one year too many for investors. Will AMD survive the next year? Absolutely! What I'm saying is that people better be prepared for some bad financial news from AMD this year. The won't go in the red of course, but 2007 won't be any 2006 for AMD.
January 5, 2007 1:58:51 PM

I thought it was a very nicely written article that raised some interesting points, and held my attention right to the end! Ta very much, roll a couple more out when you feel like it!
January 5, 2007 2:09:23 PM

I don't have a ton of time right now. I promise I'll write more later, but I want to discuss one thing.

Quote:
No cash cow? Their margins were in the 50+% level, that's a cash cow, with 2+ billion in cash on hand at the time of the acquisition.


I suggest you take a look at ATI's 2Q 2006 report.
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/10/10542...

ATI's gross margin in 2Q was 28%. Good, but no 50+%. Net income (the number everyone cares about) was only 5% or $34,000,000. As for having $2 billion in cash on hand... not sure where you're seeing that. ATI has close to $2 billion in total assets, but only $210,000,000 in cash.
January 5, 2007 2:48:39 PM

IIRC, nVidia has been the first to release new-gen architecture over the last few generations of videocards, and as the story always goes, there are few games that need anywhere near the horsepower offered by the new beasts. If you play games at normal res. like 1280x1024, name me five games that won't run smoothly with high graphics settings on anything but the 8800. ATi will release the R600 when they can; they know how long these things take, and if there's a delay, they deal with it. It's happened before.

Not accounting for the potential of the midrange offspring of the new technology (from either vendor), I did catch wind of the benchmarks via INQ, and the R600 blew away nVidia in every test game, and had an edge in 3DMark. And, we have yet to see the real DX10 performance of the new cards, which is quite relevant; conveniently, enthusiasts will have R600 available to them around the same time that Vista is becoming available. I respect the effort that you put into the analysis, but a lot of it seems to be usual doom and gloom that accompanies a delayed launch. Like Grape said, you need more objectivity to legitimate your predictions.
January 5, 2007 3:14:11 PM

Regarding the Wii: It has a IBM processor not an AMD/ATI processor but the graphic is made by ATI though the core clock was around 240 mhz

Regarding the PS3: PS3 isn't a dud if it sells out. The "process" of creating them was a disaster but the overall sales (100%) is pretty good.


Anyway AMD did finish 7th last year in semiconductor revenues (though that is gross and not net) while Intel finished 1st.

AMD Revenues news
a b U Graphics card
January 5, 2007 3:58:59 PM

Quote:
I don't have a ton of time right now. I promise I'll write more later, but I want to discuss one thing.

No cash cow? Their margins were in the 50+% level, that's a cash cow, with 2+ billion in cash on hand at the time of the acquisition.


I suggest you take a look at ATI's 2Q 2006 report.
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/10/10542...

ATI's gross margin in 2Q was 28%. Good, but no 50+%. Net income (the number everyone cares about) was only 5% or $34,000,000. As for having $2 billion in cash on hand... not sure where you're seeing that. ATI has close to $2 billion in total assets, but only $210,000,000 in cash.

By the way that you worded your statement I though you were talking about AMD, since you were talking about AMD borrowing...

"But it's highly unlikely that AMD will do any growing this year, even with a successful R600. Firstly, AMD borrowed heavily to purchase ATI and while profitable, it was no cash cow."

So it's not really clear whether you talk about AMD or ATi being the Cash copw, but actually both had a ton of Cash on hand, in fact both were talked about as having so much cash as to be looking for purchases so both are cash cows technically. And a 28% versus nV's mid 30s (don't have time to check at work but the numbers from mid-year) isn't bad, and that ATi was profitable for all 3 quarters leading up to the acquisition means that it's a revenue generator not a money loser unlike when phone companies bought cell phone companies at the turn of the millenium, so it would still be a cash cow, only it'd be a calf not a huge Holstein.

To be more accurate the margins went up from 28 to 30.1% for Q3 (which accounts for the period prior to the merger, ending May, remember their Qs are 1 ahead of calendar) and the projection for Q4 was still increasing margins;

http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/10/10542...

Also, you mention that income was 'only' 5%, yet that's after all other expenses including options, that's still pretty good for a company, and better than most fortune 500.

As for ATi's CASH position you can read yourself, it's 644 million in Q2 and in 518mil in Q3 (remember short term investments while not 'cash' are considered cash equivalents since they are short term equity, not tied-up assets), so really it still qualifies as a Cash cow, but I still don't see the evidence to back up your assumption that it's a dog. And whether or not it meets some universal standard of cash cow, I don't see how that even relates to your statement about growth, borrowing to increase capacity or to add profitable segments means positive growth, so your statement and your supporting comment are completely unrelated. The reason AMD might not grow so much is because they may have reduced demand for their products in light of competition or production problems, but it has little to do with their borrowing money if it's manageable debt. Having cash on hand and having no debt usually means you are not leveraging your assets to their full potential, and that's pretty much what AMD was doing before, now we'll just have to see if the previous unmet demand now results in a balance between supply and demand rather than shortages and undercapacity concerns. They may still grow, but potentially the need for that growth may be lessened compared to a year ago, however Dell and HP's bysprobably will keep them selling all he chips they can make for some time, and maybe if they do finally reach some overcapacity then they can consider shifting their production of VPUs to own fabs.

In anycase; I think your focus on 1 product, which represents the tiniest portion of the market, as being the lynch pin of AMD's success is rather myopic, and I know alot of people including staunch nV supporters who'd say that they expect AMD to in fact abandon the high end VPU market (even abandoning the R700), so saying that the R600 is so important to AMD's success will need a little more substance than what you've written sofar. If anything I agree more with the nVidiots despite themselves, because what they don't realize is that the true winners will get the mid range, low end and IGP market, like intel exploits now, and the marquee products lihe the G90/R700 might truely be exposed for what they really are which is simply expensive R&D and marketing, something that likely neither ATi/AMD nor nV will be able to afford at the same levels as previously displayed if the competition takes away all their profitable segments on which that house of cards is built.

IMO, the success of the R600/G80 is more important to the future of high end graphics, than the health of either ATi/AMD or nV. The R700 and G90 might be the last of the hyper refresh high end cards, heck the G80 and R600 may already be the last of the 18month cycles. You might see new lines in 18mth cycles, but likely not with the same large performance boosts, simply feature additions.

Perhaps you should think about that, because truely that affects us all more than if AMD, or any company for that matter, has a few quarters of negative results.
a b U Graphics card
January 5, 2007 4:49:05 PM

Quote:
Regarding the Wii: It has a IBM processor not an AMD/ATI processor but the graphic is made by ATI though the core clock was around 240 mhz


Well I was talking about the Hollywood VPU not the CPU. As the discussion is ATi/AMD v nV, then it would focus on the VPU not the CPU/core.

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Regarding the PS3: PS3 isn't a dud if it sells out.


Sure it is if the development cost is high, sales are below projections used to price the unit, and especially a money losing unit dependant on media sales to finance it, but that's a Sony perspective, this was more about the contributions to nV. So. considering that nV makes money of the number of sales of the unit, selling out isn't as important as the number of units sold. Selling out 10 units doesn't represent alot of money, selling out 2 million units is significant contibution to the financial success of a company.

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The "process" of creating them was a disaster but the overall sales (100%) is pretty good.


Well the question will be what happens after initial pre-orders and fans are satisfied. The Gamecube came out like gang busters and clobbered the Xbox selling like 4:1, but by this time last year the Xbox worldwide had outsold the Gamecube by about 20%.

However the situation of he PS3 versus X360 is like the PS2 versus Xbox, it's unlikely Sony will ever catch the X30 at this point, and even the Wii will likely never catch them, but IMO if anyone could it's the Wii.

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Anyway AMD did finish 7th last year in semiconductor revenues (though that is gross and not net) while Intel finished 1st.


But it's still significant from a size and economies of scale perspective. AMD grew their overall by 90%, and their share increased greatly too, whiel Intel contracted their revenue but pretty much maintained their share (likely meaning lower prices for same share).
But really that's like a mouse gaining weight to become a gerbil, but an elephant losing like 10 pounds, the numbers by themselves seem big, the the relative impact in miniscule.

PS, also if you were to combine Qimonda and Infineon back to their situation last year, they'd have finished above AMD in 5th and pushed AMD down to 8th overall.
January 5, 2007 5:16:44 PM

Uhh, the PS2 does not have nVidia graphics, it has a special chip co-designed by Toshiba and Sony.
The Xbox 1 did have nVidia (like the PS3), but it's discontinued.
Instead, Xbox360, Wii and GameCube have Ati graphics.
January 5, 2007 8:27:14 PM

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Growth:

Depends on the market, when you're in a medium growth or declining market growth through growth markets isn't a bad idea (as seen in the mobile acquisition in the phone market), unfortunately the graphics market had it's first quarter of contraction this past quarter.


Didn't say it was a bad idea, but going forward investors are certainly going to want to see ogranic growth out of AMD/ATI.

Quote:
PS2 & 3:
Pfft, steady stream? Nah, the PS3 is a dud, and what money do they get for the PS2? Original Xbox maybe, but those sales are drying up, specifically because M$ wasn't happy with them.


EDIT: Sorry... got PS2 confused w/ xbox.

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nvidia core logic:
And has just lost exclusivity of intel buddy-buddy with SIS now being given the nod from intel as well.


I doubt that'll seriously affect market share. But who knows...

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on Quadro:
Which is a costly portion of the business with very low margins and often a loss-leader.


Have you seen the cost of a Quadro lately? How is charging $2500 for what is essentially a 7900GTX low margin? Quadro's are nothing but rebranded GeForces with (sometimes) more memory and different drivers. Please show me an article or story that states nVidia's professional segment is a loss leader with low margins.

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Poor ATI chipset sales:
Actually the AMD chipsets are fine, and better than most, the issue will be switching focus from intel to AMD, which doesn't happen quickly, but once it does, then end-to-end solutions will move the product regardless of others' performance since OEMs will look for bundles. This of course hurts nV who gets alot of current sales from AMD platforms.


I said the chipsets are well reviewed. I make no claim that ATI chipsets are poor performers. What I'm saying is ATI chipset sales and market share are nowhere near nVidia levels. But neither are nVidia's compared to Intel so... I guess it's not a totally fair statement.

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Well it will be required in order to make AMD look like they haven't got a dog on their hands, but the futureof AMD isn't so much wrapped up in the R600 as it's potential offspring. What will the profitable mid-range look like, what will it bring to the CPU+VPU core that AMD needs for it's future? Those are the important factors.


Agreed

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It's not newly formed, it's newly acquired. It was formed long ago.


Wrong word used. Meant newly acquired.

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8800 GTX/GTS sales:
Really? Sales were much lower than the GF7800 series, so how successful is it? And with the graphics pullback last quarter how succesful can anyone really consider themselves? The card is a great card, but I doubt it's anywhere near as profitable from nV as the GF7600 is or the X1900 seires is for ATi.


I said all things considered. Those things being:
1. No DX10 title
2. No vista
3. High price tag

Shipments are lower than what nVidia expected, but not by a landslide. And that $650 price tag will probably balance out the lost revenue compared w/ 7800 or 7900 sales. Either way it's largely speculation since we haven't seen a financial result w/ the 8800 GTX factored in. (Results should be out in Feb)

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$650 8800 GTX price tag:
But not many of them (less than 4% of the market shelled out more than $250). And it's not the most profitable segment either. The big money maker and the big sales come in the $150-250 segment.


Agreed.

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nVidia being most successful:
That statement is pretty much an ad for nV. Who said nV would sit on their hands? Also, isn't intel the most successful graphics company, and until AMD bought them weren't ATi outselling nV?


Intel is the most successful in terms of market share. But if you think their integrated GPU's makes them successful... well... there's no hope for you. ATI has outsold nVidia in terms of revenue once or twice, but make no mistake nVidia is king of the hill in terms of revenue and GP. ATi has also only beat nVidia in market share a couple times, but those were quarterly results.

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AMD losing out to high price tags:
Until you know what it is and how it compares to the competition how can you even make that claim? Once again too much cheerleading not enough objectivity.


It's an opinion. I just don't think AMD is going to be able to get away with a $650 price tag like nVidia did. I'm not saying they won't, i'm just say i think they won't.

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No midrage cards at time of R600 launch:
Why is that extremely unlikely? They launched the X1800XL and X1300 at the same time, and the X1800XT and X1600Pro within a month of each other shippinh shortly afterwards, so it's not extremely unlikely especially if the production issues affect the R600 and not it's offspring. nV had a staggered launch last time and this time. I suspect that AMD/ATi will launch the whole lineup at the same time, but if anything they may do a staggered delivery like they did last time.


Yes, that's true. However, the reason I don't think ATI will be able to launch mid-range are the delays. They can't start making cards until the core is finally taped out, which it isn't. 1 month probably isn't enough time for TSMC, IBM, or whoever ATI is using right now to ramp up an entire line of new cards in volume. But again, I could be wrong. But even if they do manage to launch high end and mid-range simultaneously, there will be supply problems.

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And what production experience does ATi have with 512bit memory interface? Other that the ringbus which isn't even true 512bit so much as a segmented 256+256 composition. Only 3Dlabs had a shipping 512bit product and even that was different.


Was thinking of ringbus, which yeah, isn't true 512bit. My bad.

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Seriously that's pretty Fanboi-like talk there. The nV was a generation behind with the FX series, and ATi made the first single chip accelerator, first to output to TV, first with PS1.4/DX8.1, first with PS2.0/DX9, first with DDR2, first GDDR4, first with 110nm, first with low-K, first to 90nm, first to 80nm.... both companies have storied pasts, and both have led and followed.


OK... PS 1.4, 2.0, and GDDR2/4 are all minor advances compared to what nVidia has done. nVidia practically invented pixel shading. Not to mention they were the first ever with any type of DDR. GDDR4 is important, I agree, but nVidia has shown GDDR3 still has some legs. The only thing I will agree on is DX9... that was a big advancement and ATI deserves props on that one.

Quote:
AMD using its fabs for ATI chips:
I doubt they'll move anything to AMD fabs for a while (likely the 45nm IBM/AMD process will be the first to go AMD instead of TSMC/UMC).
[/b]

I said that!

Quote:
Maybe, but it's the offshoot/spin-off products/benifits that matter far more than the marquee/vanity/niche product the R600 is itself. Single produts likely more important to AMD's future would be their mobile refresh in the spring/summer, and their move to CPU+VPU system on a chip for their products for the low end PC, home entertainment, micro-servers, mobile, and industrial solutions.


No argument there. Torrenza is going to be huge. It just proably isn't going to happen this year.

Quote:
I agree with that. Main thing is to have people pushing the market forward, but the thing you totally ignore is the fact that the most important things to nV and AMD's future is their success in the low-mid range market with the new potential entrants (intel, VIA/S3, SIS) to this profitable segment where they make the money to pay for these marquee e-penis products.


I acknowledged Intel's possibly re-entry to graphics... in the first paragraph. But let's get real, anything SiS or VIA puts out is going to be trash. They've fallen so far behind the only thing they can keep up on is low-end crap. Intel is the real threat, to both AMD and nVidia.


Thanks for the input. Again, this is more of an op-ed piece and isn't meant to convey fact. It's just what I think of the future.
January 5, 2007 8:33:29 PM

yeah my bad. i'm getting all cornfused w/ xbox and PS2. xbox has nvidia, not PS2.
a b U Graphics card
January 5, 2007 9:40:58 PM

Quote:

Didn't say it was a bad idea, but going forward investors are certainly going to want to see ogranic growth out of AMD/ATI.


Definitely, the point was the growth of the chipset market, and the ability to create the system on a chip, both of which should offer 'synergies' and allow fo organic growth, but you won't see the benifits from that for some time, it's impossible to see it immediately, you would only see that kinda of benifit if AMD had bout UPS or and energy company meaning instant savings. These growth opportunities are not going to be seen until 2008 IMO.

Quote:
PS2 still has the majority market share.


Easily, however the CURRENT sales are still in Xbox360's favour, the ARS article talks of average out sales, and they mention the 1 million sales for the holidays, yet the X360 sold 2+ million (the Wii 1.6+) for that same period, so still the X360>Wii>PS2>PS3 for CURRENT sales, overall sales yeah of course the PS2 has like close to 50million units out there, but on current sales the tipping point was in the summer, May was the first blip, but the trend has been that way since August.

Quote:
Though, that'll likely change in Q4 '06. Regardless, it still sells.


I don't disagree with that point, heck it sells better than the PS3, however the PS2 involves NO revenue stream for nV other than software licensing for it's co-platform OGLSL dev kits that are geared primarily for PS3 but have PS2 support.

Quote:
And PS3 may not win the next war, but it's still going to make a ton of money for nVidia. As for Wii, I forgot it uses ATI... so my bad on that one.


I don't disagree about the PS3, but I think you need to swap your PS2 figures for your original Xbox figures, which are now pretty much off the market. PS2 still sells, but I haven't seen a plain Xbox since the fall and those were being almost given away.

Quote:
I doubt that'll seriously affect market share. But who knows...


I don't think it will be a huge impact the way ATi's withdrawl from the intel market was, but it does show that intel is not going to play favourites and nV is at the whym of the others as to whether it gets licenses to sell or not.

Quote:
Have you seen the cost of a Quadro lately? How is charging $2500 for what is essentially a 7900GTX low margin? Quadro's are nothing but rebranded GeForces with (sometimes) more memory and different drivers. Please show me an article or story that states nVidia's professional segment is a loss leader with low margins.


I couldn't find you a new one without some seirous searching, but ased on the past it's pretty straight forward, the Quadros require two expensive aspects for their sale, Custom drivers and ceritified parts. The driver portion alone is about a $50million a year cost if it's anything like the ATi costs. The most recent mention of this is in this THG article, but the $ figure is not used, the figure I got last time was $80mil for ATi's German FireGL team which was being axed at the time and moved to N.Am. However from everything I've read both the Quadro and FireGL lines are barely breaking even if not money losing, 3Dlabs mentioned this upon exiting the market.

Quote:
I said the chipsets are well reviewed. I make no claim that ATI chipsets are poor performers. What I'm saying is ATI chipset sales and market share are nowhere near nVidia levels. But neither are nVidia's compared to Intel so... I guess it's not a totally fair statement.


Well what I'm saying is it's a moot point because nV's future chipset sales IMO are on far more shakey ground than ATi/AMD's as for being a core component on which to rely on revenue for. nV is doing well now, but had the ATi solutions been the intel darling at C2D launch, how much do you think that would've affected things, IMO, greatly, however still for the time being nV would lead because ATi's AMD presence is still limited to primarily mobile platforms. I have a feeling that if ATi/AMD truely makes inroads to even half the level that intel does for intel, then they will greatly impact nV's chipset market more than vice versa. I think it's inevitable too, since why would AMD leave that money on the table for others to take?

Quote:
I said all things considered. Those things being:
1. No DX10 title
2. No vista
3. High price tag


Ok, considering the barriers to the launch of this product it's doing well, but by the same token, the GF7800 was equally featured to the GF6800 and yet did very well based on it's performance jump. Arguablly the performance jump from the GF7900s to the GF800GTX is as large if not larger for the big panels, so while the features aren't fully exploited I guess calling them barriers is a little strong.

Quote:
Shipments are lower than what nVidia expected, but not by a landslide. And that $650 price tag will probably balance out the lost revenue compared w/ 7800 or 7900 sales. Either way it's largely speculation since we haven't seen a financial result w/ the 8800 GTX factored in. (Results should be out in Feb)


Yeah and I suspect we'll never truely know, nV and ATi like to hide the specifics in the revenues of the other cards, what we'll likely see is the volumes compared to the others.

Quote:
Intel is the most successful in terms of market share. But if you think their integrated GPU's makes them successful... well... there's no hope for you.


No but we're talking about economics here, and really, like I told you, I'm pessimistic about the future of this industry because of the fact that economis is going to play a bigger role in the future and it's going to be less about ePeni$es and who's Mascot is sexier, with the new entrants I feel that it's going to kill progress for the intel model, and that's because companies like AMD will be focusing on being as profitable as possible, seeing the high end market as unnecessary. Heck intel's been leading with crap, like we both know, so why be #1 in a money losing role, when you can kick A$$ with mediocre performance, but more features for the mid-range ding-dong who still buy GF4MXs (which I saw at a NewYear's BF2 LAN part last week and the guy didn't know why he couldn't play, he was lent a PCI FX5200) and X300s.

Quote:
ATI has outsold nVidia in terms of revenue once or twice, but make no mistake nVidia is king of the hill in terms of revenue and GP. ATi has also only beat nVidia in market share a couple times, but those were quarterly results.


Actually you need to look at overall revenue from graphics operations and you'll see ATi lead nV, it's nV's chipset sales that tipped the balance sheet of late, this past quarter was the first change in that which was mentioned by the analysts.

Quote:
It's an opinion. I just don't think AMD is going to be able to get away with a $650 price tag like nVidia did. I'm not saying they won't, i'm just say i think they won't.


I just feel more comfortable not making that statement, especially since people said the $650 GTX-512 wouldn't sell yet it was back-ordered at $700+, I wouldn't be surprised if it meet expectations of that fake site, that it sell about as many @ 650 as nV sold GTXs, and of course if it performs even better than that expect even higher price opportunities. But that's my opinion. Also remember if it's cheaper to make than a GTX or GTS, then it doesn't need $650 to be as succesful, and if it's more expensive then it would need $700MSRP, so that's another thing to consider.

Quote:
Yes, that's true. However, the reason I don't think ATI will be able to launch mid-range are the delays. They can't start making cards until the core is finally taped out, which it isn't.


Why not? The RV versions are likely not directly tied to the R600 development cycle, and we've seen ATi's willingness to move on by their quick move to the R580 due to R520 delays. I suspect they are chugging away at the mid-range as if the R600 doesn't exist.

Quote:
1 month probably isn't enough time for TSMC, IBM, or whoever ATI is using right now to ramp up an entire line of new cards in volume.


Well actually I suspect that ATi will do what they did last time, give the bulk to TSMC and have UMC pick up the entry or mid-range, whichever they think is most important to hit the market first (last time it was the X1300).

Quote:
But even if they do manage to launch high end and mid-range simultaneously, there will be supply problems.


I don't doubt it for the R600, but if the RV models have been going fine, and they've been producing the whole time an just waiting for clearance to launch, they might have no shortages. Of course that's speculation, but because there's problems with the R600 doesn't mean everything else stops. Especially when they are stupid problems like not connecting the pins on the R600, which has nothing to do with the other models.

Quote:
OK... PS 1.4, 2.0, and GDDR2/4 are all minor advances compared to what nVidia has done. nVidia practically invented pixel shading. Not to mention they were the first ever with any type of DDR.


Yet ATi came out with HyperZ at that time, which negated that benifit (the Radeon with HyperZ and DDR beat the GF with DDR at higher resolutions). So it's always point counter point, and they aren't necessarily the same developments.

Quote:
GDDR4 is important, I agree, but nVidia has shown GDDR3 still has some legs.


I don't doubt that, I think it's myopic to make an only GDDR3 or GDDR4 card (becuase of all the crippled or future overclocked parts you can make from mature chips) but I think this is the least of their wories since they plan a new part by spring so they'll cripled the G80 and OC the G80+ instead, pretty much same result, just longer maturation process for the refresh.

Quote:
I acknowledged Intel's possibly re-entry to graphics... in the first paragraph. But let's get real, anything SiS or VIA puts out is going to be trash. They've fallen so far behind the only thing they can keep up on is low-end crap. Intel is the real threat, to both AMD and nVidia.


You miss the point, SIS and VIA currently make crap products, none of which are SM3.0 compliant, yet both have very large chunks of the business, both have dedicated all their resources to re-entering at the Vista/DX10 point, and are going to do so aggresively, missing all of SM3.0 and most of DX9 to focus on this, believe me, crap or noth they are going be agressive, and they will win contracts regardless.

Quote:
Thanks for the input. Again, this is more of an op-ed piece and isn't meant to convey fact. It's just what I think of the future.


That's cool, I'll give you a bit more of my take later then, because I think the world is going to change greatly.
January 10, 2007 6:20:25 AM

You have to be kidding. (That's for your barb)


AMD mainly acquired ATi for chipsets. GPUs are much lower margin than CPUs because the whole board needs to be assembled after the chip itself.

The Agena chipset (RD790) has already been previewed by Chile Hardware, which will ensure AMD will have a total platform for Agena, Kuma and Agena FX. I would also expect that they will be "mentioning" an update to their highly successful 8000 server chipset at 65nm (TSMC has 65nm capability) at least for the Shanghai refresh of Barcelona.

The R600 will provide a steady flow of income - even from Intel based machines but any GPU tech will be allocated for FP usage and not graphics. The Stream Processor is a number cruncher and doesn't display anything.

Even Fusion is just a "product-differentiation" mechanism to allow AMD to show themselves to be innovative (not that they aren't).

The bigger win would be if RD690 does well in the Intel sector. This will force Intel to allow mobo manufs to use it. Even 10-15% of Intel's chipset sales would be a hefty piece of change. EVen if Intel attempts to infiltrate the GPU space, they have to either allow the Sparkle's, MSI's, FoxConns and now OCZs (even Intel can't piss them off) to make the boards or build 7 more fabs (wow that would take some effort and time) to produce enough volume to make the investment worth it.

In other words, R600 is only needed for DX 10 and the games aren't due for at least a few months. Even CrySis, the flagship DX10 game will not launch with Vista as it was supposed to (I doubt that February will end without it).

AMD has even announced or released IGP platforms for HTPC (AMD Live! notebooks, ATi TV Wonder HD, HP TX 1000) which is moreso where the industry is going rather than power hungry graphics.

The next real step would be to get R600 to 65nm since it has been rated at 225W at 80nm (maybe a radical redesign is necessary) but R600 is as much of a savior for AMD as 8800 was for nVidia. How much will you really do without a GPU?

ATi consistently produced more tweakable, less power hungry chipsets than either Intel or nVidia and that is what's needed for servers - especially when you have clusters with 400 chipsets/PCs.
January 10, 2007 9:41:00 AM

Quote:

Even CrySis, the flagship DX10 game will not launch with Vista as it was supposed to (I doubt that February will end without it).


I would be willing to bet that February will end without it!
January 10, 2007 9:56:28 AM

Yes - the last official date given for Crysis was May 2007, and now none is given at all (citing difficulties integrating lower quality shaders for lower performance machines) - September has been rumoured but nothing more.
a b U Graphics card
January 10, 2007 2:23:29 PM

Quote:
Yes - the last official date given for Crysis was May 2007, and now none is given at all (citing difficulties integrating lower quality shaders for lower performance machines) - September has been rumoured but nothing more.


And that's the part that Pi$$es me off, what's the level they've dropped down to? If it's anything lower than SM3.0 then they are wasting their (and our time) it would've been better to release the full version and then a 'lite' version later like they do for Apple. If the problem is SM3.0 that would be surprising.

Needless to say I don't expect to play Crysis on my current MRX700 equipped laptop, and so prepared should the X800 owners be. Oblivion launched with basically R9800 and above support, and really it wouldn't hurt sales more than if they'd waited for the 'very low quality' setting to have shipped with the game as it looked brutally crap, I have a feeling that if this isn't for SM3.0, then it's really not worth it.
June 8, 2007 4:37:10 AM

I hate to stroke my own ego here but.... I told ya so!

Damn shame about the R600... really is.
a b U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 5:24:33 AM

I'm not really following ya, but probably because I didn't go back to read the thread. R600 hurts the enthusiasts opinion of ATI/AMD now, our views...their image, etc. But if they can land the money deals, they won't be necesarily hurting.

Example, while I say they need to compete on the high end better, if this is true, they won't be all too bad off -
http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&ta...
a b U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 7:44:17 AM

Quote:
here comes the purple flames
i tried showing him data once or twice too


Why are you posting in this thread? You have nothing constructive to add, and pretty much the majority of what I said too came to pass. Unlike your tripe, I did reply for both sides of the issue.

The overall idea is still as valid as it was then, and I think both mpjesse and I did a good job of prediction for the time period (long before alot of items were even rumoured let alone actioned), one thing that's still the same now, nV and AMD's future is very tied up with the mid-range and how well they do there, and who enters that market, not so much the R600 alone. Even in the chipset market the biggest change is the number of ATi-AMD chipsets in the mobile market, and their improved sales like I said.

So unless you have something new to contribute back to your hole in the ground with you!
a b U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 7:57:59 AM

Quote:
i did add something new
you ignore data
its not my fault


No you added nothing new to the thread topic, just a BS unrelated comment from another grudge of yours.

Considering your penchant for testing 'bandwidth' on 'work cards' with 3Dmark or calling it an 'SLi slot' instead of PEG or PCIe 16X slot, your data is suspect everytime you post. :roll:
a b U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 8:03:34 AM

Quote:
ya ya yawn
the ussual insults


It was you who threatened to flame me from now on, so don't get all wussy about insults now boy. Maybe you got your manhood stuck in your SLi slot? 8O
a b U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 9:28:26 AM

Quote:
i am not looking to flame you and never said anything like that


Oh yes you did;

"unless you want to get flamed for not posting data "

So don't pretend you're not trolling in this thread and others with your 'data' comment, especially in this one about comments/predictions I made ~5months ago, when it was mostly speculation since no one had much data about the future products.
a b U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 9:46:26 AM

BS, what prompted your post in this thread?

You can try to backpedal but you commented on 5 month old replies with a current grudge of yours. That's your trolling pure and simple. :roll:
June 8, 2007 11:00:56 AM

Quote:
I hate to stroke my own ego here but.... I told ya so!

Damn shame about the R600... really is.


Considering that was back in Jan. you did pretty good; you're entitled to stroke you're own ego. The part I'm confused with is that the guy who countered every one of you're points also claims to have gotten it right. :?:
June 8, 2007 12:52:04 PM

Quote:
BS, what prompted your post in this thread?

You can try to backpedal but you commented on 5 month old replies with a current grudge of yours. That's your trolling pure and simple. :roll:


calm down greatgreatape you are turning into a baron!
a c 130 U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 1:05:13 PM

To beerandcandy
Good point well made (without insult or curse) :p 

Mactronix
a b U Graphics card
June 8, 2007 1:13:10 PM

Quote:
With all due respect I find your reasoning/statements false or short sided.The main reasons behind it for one can be found by the grape apes counters.What Ive found on thg is alot of leaning one way or the other for whomever a person prefers for their hardware.But the worse Ive read is the doom and gloom of this. When I read a story rant or opinion regaurding AMD,its usually ludicrous sounding like omgitsthelatestgreatestcomehitherallyouWONTbelievewhateventuallywillhappen crap,OR the short sided but well meaning worry(for competitions sake)or triumphant fanboyism of doom and gloom.Everyone here has to understand that joe blow out there DOESNT know what we know, BUT joe blow has the dough to make the difference.He's the one thatll buy the hype,WHOEVER is feeding it to him/her.When making statements as broad as THEYRE GOIN DOWN YA'LL just keep joe blow in mind.Like was said earlier,its NOT the gtx that sells,nor the xtx.Its the midrange that sells with joeblows money,I could go on but my point is made.I understand what youre saying and in a 'smarter world' youd be right, but really,do you think joe blow knows anything like we do?
OK, since this old and unimformed, mostly speculation thread was dug up , and yes I know the rep of this site, but look here http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&ta... Im not sure why this thread was brought out of the depths, but speculation is what it is
June 8, 2007 1:56:45 PM

Personally, I plan to support AMD/ATI when I build my next system. Barcelona need not be a C2D killer, but as long as the quad core chips are a nice step up from my current X2 (while maintaining similar thermals/wattage), I'll get one. Heck, maybe two!

As for R600, I will have to buy two. One for my next gaming rig, and one for my current HTPC, when I get an HDTV for it. The new HD features that are part of R600 are very nice (HD video and audio through the HDMI cable sounds sweet). Although I think I will wait for the smaller die versions of the 2000 series cards.

Good luck AMD.
June 8, 2007 2:03:08 PM

If you just read the Avivo vs. Purevideo HD article, both brands scored a total of 0 in HD image quality in all their tests combined. Plus, I would wait for the 65nm and revised version (R650). If you're trying to maintain thermals/wattage a R600 CF would be madness!


EDIT: VR-Zone is saying there won't be a 65/55nm R650 with the picture of the ATI roadmap. Wait for the 55nm R680 as the replacement in Jan 08.
June 8, 2007 2:34:18 PM

Quote:
ya ya yawn
the ussual insults


It was you who threatened to flame me from now on, so don't get all wussy about insults now boy. Maybe you got your manhood stuck in your SLi slot? 8OBut he runs an Intel GMA3000. :lol: 

Quote:
If you just read the Avivo vs. Purevideo HD article, both brands scored a total of 0 in HD image quality in all their tests combined. Plus, I would wait for the 65nm and revised version (R650). If you're trying to maintain thermals/wattage a R600 CF would be madness!


EDIT: VR-Zone is saying there won't be a 65/55nm R650 with the picture of the ATI roadmap. Wait for the 55nm R680 as the replacement in Jan 08.
Isn't Nvidia also planning on launching the G90 in December/January?
June 8, 2007 4:26:38 PM

Quote:
i am not looking to flame you and never said anything like that
i just happen to come accross threads (everyday) where you are flaming peeps all over THG. its not my fault you do this
i think you should notch it down a bit and lose the rude insults and name calling.


Nobody was flaming in this thread until you showed up. It was an intereseing read until now. Thanks a lot... :roll:
June 8, 2007 9:25:18 PM

Quote:
Plus, I would wait for the 65nm and revised version (R650). If you're trying to maintain thermals/wattage a R600 CF would be madness!


Even one R600 card will probably require a new PSU for most people, even the high end folks. Two of them... I'd keep a fire extinguisher handy.
a b U Graphics card
June 9, 2007 12:45:56 AM

That's the same link I posted when seeing this thread again. :D 
June 9, 2007 6:48:03 AM

Quote:
With all due respect I find your reasoning/statements false or short sided.The main reasons behind it for one can be found by the grape apes counters.What Ive found on thg is alot of leaning one way or the other for whomever a person prefers for their hardware.But the worse Ive read is the doom and gloom of this. When I read a story rant or opinion regaurding AMD,its usually ludicrous sounding like omgitsthelatestgreatestcomehitherallyouWONTbelievewhateventuallywillhappen crap,OR the short sided but well meaning worry(for competitions sake)or triumphant fanboyism of doom and gloom.Everyone here has to understand that joe blow out there DOESNT know what we know, BUT joe blow has the dough to make the difference.He's the one thatll buy the hype,WHOEVER is feeding it to him/her.When making statements as broad as THEYRE GOIN DOWN YA'LL just keep joe blow in mind.Like was said earlier,its NOT the gtx that sells,nor the xtx.Its the midrange that sells with joeblows money,I could go on but my point is made.I understand what youre saying and in a 'smarter world' youd be right, but really,do you think joe blow knows anything like we do?
OK, since this old and unimformed, mostly speculation thread was dug up , and yes I know the rep of this site, but look here http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&ta... Im not sure why this thread was brought out of the depths, but speculation is what it is

I dunno why I brought it up either. What I wanted to do was put something in writing and see if my "speculation" turned out right. For the most part it did. ATI wasn't able to launch the R600 at premium prices, AMD wasn't able to launch a range of midrange R600 cards (2900XT is still the only one on the market), nVidia launched mid range 8xxx series cards right before R600, it's failure is going to seriously hurt AMD's number this quarter, AMD lost market share to C2D (most agree that was inevitable), R600 won't keep them afloat as they hoped, AMD doesn't know what the fcuk it's doing w/ ATI, and i'm willing to bet people still aren't going to buy the 2900XT because it's STILL overpriced compared to the 8800GTS.

I'm so confused as to why AMD rushed so quickly to integrate ATI into it's corporate culture. For someone to sit there and say that R600 wasn't delayed because of the merger... you're nuts. That merger had everything to do w/ it. (BTW, I'm not directing this at you Jaydee). AMD would have been much better of letting ATI slowly integrate... keep the two seperate for a couple quarters until R600 was launched and then start working on the other stuff. It looks to me like AMD's engineers are just overwhelmed with they're bosses starry eyed plans for torrenza and fusion and all that other crap that'll probably never end up seeing the light of day.

I'm tellin' ya'll right now... if Barcelona flops (which looks very likely) you can forget about all the great plans AMD has for the future. They'll be rellegated back to the company they were before the Athlon: Always trying to play catch up with Intel's processors. Their graphics division? Gone. Dismantled to save costs on salaries. Chipset division? That might stick around, but it won't be anything spectacular. Intel is determined to put AMD back where it started. All these great plans will go down the toilet with Ruiz and his management. As I've said before, all this merger did was strengthen nVidia and motivate Intel. So far it hasn't beared any fruit for AMD or their investors.

It's a shame because their management and ideas are great. Forward looking people they are, more so than Intel. And creative. But this stupid merger is going end up killing them if they don't start accelerating their launches.

Anyways... I'm constantly thinking about how things are going to play out and i wanted to "put it down on paper" sort of speak for my own record. Plus I wanted to give the finger to bungholes who called me uninformed and whatnot. The only person who respectfully (and intelligently) disagreed was GGA. The rest flamed...
a b U Graphics card
June 9, 2007 11:43:29 AM

I dont disagree with your forward looking thoughts at all, but like I had posted before, the mid and entry level is really where the moneys at in gfx cards. It wouldve been nice to see a XTX that would have competed with the GTX, but it didnt happen. The ATI part of DAAMIT if you will , will be in the black and do quite well, and actually could pull AMD'S are\se outts\a the fire just long enough for this phenominal disastor ( :roll: ) to subside, provided as you said the new AMD cpu has something to it. One would havre to wonder just what everyone would be thinking now, with nothing, and I mean nothing coming from AMD this whole time, without the inclusion of ATI and the 600 series. Thinking of that is really scary, so in a way, ATI has already helped AMD, and hopefully they can make it to a better day. Oh, and anyone that wants to flame MPJ... bite me heheh
June 9, 2007 6:35:13 PM

My concern is that AMD may have sunk ATI by delaying the R600 for so damned long. ATI has never had a major delay like it did w/ the R600 and to say the merger is just a coincidence (as some have said) is naiive.

I really do hope AMD let's ATI alone w/ the "r700" or whatever their next series is. I don't think I like the prospect of nVidia dominating until Intel releases it's discreet graphics.
!