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AMD really played the analysts and investors on this one

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January 12, 2007 12:19:28 PM

but the reaction will be ugly. This is a sign of how cunning AMD management is :o  and this is about as low as Hector can go to get cash 8O
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36914
January 12, 2007 12:29:55 PM

Their stock prices are gonna drop to nothing. Which only means one thing..... Buy Buy Buy!!!!! :p 
January 12, 2007 1:14:50 PM

Last year 1.33 Billion
This year (according to Inquirer :roll: ) 1.67 Billion.

340 Million more despite massive price drops, which is probably the only reason why profits fell short. Still looking like a good year regardless. Not to mention next year will see the profits from ATI as well.

WHAT THE PROBLEM IS??? :lol: 
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January 12, 2007 1:42:53 PM

Meh, whatever. It is an Inquirer article after all.

Considering the buy of ATI, I'm surprised that they cut estimated earnings by only $150 million. As far as it being reported at the last possible moment and the perception that it's some super sneaky manuever to fool Wall St., well, it's nothing that hundreds of other companies haven't done. In a business environment of Enron, Tyco, and Worldcomm, AMD gets a pass with this. And, really tho, what's the long term fallout of this gonna amount to...diddly-squat...why? Wall St. is fickle. After the next quarterly announcement or product launch, the Inquirer will release an article saying that AMD redeemed themselves and is the darling of Wall St.
January 12, 2007 1:48:35 PM

All big business has to borrow when aquiring other companies.And sorry to burst your bubble,but it takes awhile to merge two companies together,not to mention management and employee shuffling.And then there is the product naming and numbering as well as re negotiating distribution and sales.There is a lot that most people don't know about business,and although I'm no business guru,I understand the gist of it.Patience good people,things will turn out in the end.

Dahak

AMD X2-4400+@2.533 S-939
EVGA NF4 SLI MB
2X EVGA 7800GT IN SLI
2X1GIG DDR IN DC MODE
WD300GIG HD
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January 12, 2007 5:29:58 PM

Quote:
All big business has to borrow when aquiring other companies.And sorry to burst your bubble,but it takes awhile to merge two companies together,not to mention management and employee shuffling.And then there is the product naming and numbering as well as re negotiating distribution and sales.There is a lot that most people don't know about business,and although I'm no business guru,I understand the gist of it.Patience good people,things will turn out in the end.

Dahak

AMD X2-4400+@2.533 S-939
EVGA NF4 SLI MB
2X EVGA 7800GT IN SLI
2X1GIG DDR IN DC MODE
WD300GIG HD
EXTREME 19IN.MONITOR 1280X1024
ACE 520WATT PSU
COOLERMASTER MINI R120



That's the big problem with "armchair" analysis. People don't realize how business works and they assume that it's cut and dry because companies don't get into detail about business maneuvers.

Corporate finance is actually a MAJOR in college. I haven't taken it but Mech Engr requires some classes about finance.

AMD has been delivering what I knew they would. Reference platforms. 4 were released during CES. More will come with Barcelona. The GPU IP they acquired with ATi has nothing to do with graphics but FP and modularity. R700 is said to be a totally modular chip where blocks are added as necessary. This is exactly what Fusion is about.

The Stock Market has always favored Intel as is evidenced by the fact that they are not yet being "punished" because profits dropped off by up to 37%.

It's not like analysts couldn't see AMDs prices dropping during the quarter. Most of them wouldn't know a good move if it ran them over. I doubt that AMD was purposefully trying to pull the wool over anyone's eyes.

I wouldn't have said anything during CES either. The idea of CES is to promote new products and goals, not bring bad news.
January 12, 2007 7:11:09 PM

Quote:
but the reaction will be ugly. This is a sign of how cunning AMD management is :o  and this is about as low as Hector can go to get cash 8O
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36914



AMD BK set, 2Q08, it's inevitable. :lol: 

Do I sound like Sharikouisamoron?Not that i really care, but you gotta wonder what kind of spin he's putting on this. I'm sure the BS is veryyyy deep. :x
January 12, 2007 7:50:18 PM

Quote:
but the reaction will be ugly. This is a sign of how cunning AMD management is :o  and this is about as low as Hector can go to get cash 8O
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36914



AMD BK set, 2Q08, it's inevitable. :lol: 

Do I sound like Sharikouisamoron?Not that i really care, but you gotta wonder what kind of spin he's putting on this. I'm sure the BS is veryyyy deep. :x

I'll go to his blog and find out.
January 12, 2007 8:11:16 PM

Quote:
Last year 1.33 Billion
This year (according to Inquirer :roll: ) 1.67 Billion.

340 Million more despite massive price drops, which is probably the only reason why profits fell short. Still looking like a good year regardless. Not to mention next year will see the profits from ATI as well.

WHAT THE PROBLEM IS??? :lol: 


AMD's earnings for Q4 of last year was 1.33b. This year AMD is saying Q4 will be slightly up to 1.37b, which is bad because they were expecting 1.44b. The 1.67b is the earnings number for AMD+ATI, which analyst were expecting to be 1.84b. The fact that (AMD CPU) earnings will miss by 70 million dollars is not the big deal, the big deal is that they said that revenue will be "significantly" lower, which means their margins took a big hit on the CPU front. Even worse when they show the actual AMD+ATI numbers I wouldn't be surprised if they were in the red. Overall this was a tough Q4 for AMD and 2007 looks just as bleek or bleeker. On the bright sided they do have K8L coming.
January 12, 2007 8:20:04 PM

Quote:
but the reaction will be ugly. This is a sign of how cunning AMD management is :o  and this is about as low as Hector can go to get cash 8O
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36914



AMD BK set, 2Q08, it's inevitable. :lol: 

Do I sound like Sharikouisamoron?Not that i really care, but you gotta wonder what kind of spin he's putting on this. I'm sure the BS is veryyyy deep. :x

I'll go to his blog and find out.

The guy went AWOL last night. I'm sure he'll come up with something to spin this around so that intel will now go BK even sooner. They will frag their earnings so that their runrate will be 50% or something like that. :p 
January 12, 2007 8:21:47 PM

Quote:
but the reaction will be ugly. This is a sign of how cunning AMD management is :o  and this is about as low as Hector can go to get cash 8O
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36914



AMD BK set, 2Q08, it's inevitable. :lol: 

Do I sound like Sharikouisamoron?Not that i really care, but you gotta wonder what kind of spin he's putting on this. I'm sure the BS is veryyyy deep. :x

I'll go to his blog and find out.
If you ask me it took admirable courage on his part to even acknowledge it.
January 12, 2007 8:48:35 PM

xpresso,

Maybe you should not just take what the inquirer says at face value, and do a little more research on your own. This post does nothing but make you sound like a fanboy, and I assume you wouldn't want that, since once your credibilty is gone, you get flamed like BM, even when you aren't posting anything.

wes
January 12, 2007 9:16:07 PM

Quote:
but the reaction will be ugly. This is a sign of how cunning AMD management is :o  and this is about as low as Hector can go to get cash 8O
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=36914



AMD BK set, 2Q08, it's inevitable. :lol: 

Do I sound like Sharikouisamoron?Not that i really care, but you gotta wonder what kind of spin he's putting on this. I'm sure the BS is veryyyy deep. :x

I won't link it but just go read it...I have his blog filed under Humor in my favorites - it never fails to entertain...if I need my humor fix, it's better than Comedy Central sometimes...
January 12, 2007 9:43:15 PM

Think its about time to sell my stock that I bought @ $8 a share
January 12, 2007 11:25:39 PM

Quote:
xpresso,

Maybe you should not just take what the inquirer says at face value, and do a little more research on your own. This post does nothing but make you sound like a fanboy, and I assume you wouldn't want that, since once your credibilty is gone, you get flamed like BM, even when you aren't posting anything.

wes


Haven't you gotten out of the 3rd grade?
January 12, 2007 11:57:04 PM

I wasn't attacking you man, just using the way you are attacked as an example to him. It was my opinion that he was just starting an inflamatory post, with little actual information or research. So, I was trying to help him out with that.

Baron, I have defended you many times, not sure if I should or not, but I have. So, don't attack me, as I have not attacked you.

wes
January 13, 2007 12:09:03 AM

AMTI's stock price is less then half the peak in early 06 - or around there i did not check - so keep this in mind when investing - ever heard the saying "try to catch a falling knife" thats now - in few months if the r600 does not work out then it be "dead cat bounce"

do a spread == sell amd buy intel - protect yourself form market moves!

1) they will only get less for each chip
2) they will only sell less chips after dell figures out they were totally last to the party - dell played musical chairs and hit the floor

if they can not make money when the factory is max'd out - keep in mind amd could not keep up with orders in late 06, things can only get worse for amti.

o the bright side - i did but 3 amd chips first in 6 months on special! o boy mobo and 3500+ for $99
mobo $ x2 4200+ for $170

so bargain hunters are out looking for carrion
January 13, 2007 2:14:54 AM

I'm so sick of these stupid posts I think im gonna call it a night.

Someone needs to sign up for business economics 101.

Those of us who have an income and have to balance our bank accounts every month know better.
January 13, 2007 2:43:36 AM

Quote:


The guy went AWOL last night. I'm sure he'll come up with something to spin this around so that intel will now go BK even sooner. They will frag their earnings so that their runrate will be 50% or something like that. :p 


It's a telephone call between Paul Otellini and Pat Gelsinger. Very amusing! :lol: 
January 13, 2007 5:26:00 AM

<<deleting first of 4 (!) duplicate posts>>
January 13, 2007 5:26:21 AM

<<deleting 2nd of 4 (!) duplicate posts>>
January 13, 2007 5:26:42 AM

<<deleting third of 4 (!) duplicate posts>>
January 13, 2007 5:32:48 AM

There is lots of talk of fiscal games, misleading the press... blah, blah, blah.....
The real reason AMD is in deep sh*t is quite simple.
Core2 Duo is just simply a better chip than the Athlon x2, and Intel has HUGE fab capacity and can crank them out as cheap as the market requires.
AMD had a decent 3Q because Intel was fire sale pricing the Netburst stuff, but this trend will end soon as the E4xxx series replaces the 9xx stuff pretty fast. -
Intel is (other than a few Celerons) 100% Core2 by the end of 2007.

At every pricepoint above $100, the Intel chip just KILLS the AMD part.

FX74 ....a joke... Seriously... this is an embarasment...
5600+? - an E6600 is $200 cheaper and 10% faster
5000+? - and E6600 is 20% faster at the same price, an E6400 just as fast and $100 less money...
There will be also E4400 (2.0 ghz, 800 FSB) at $161 which will be +/- the equal; of an x2 5000+ - for 50% less money!
4600+ - an E6300 kills it for less money....
4200+? An E4300 runs pretty much exactly halfway speed wise between an X2 4200 and and x2 4600. - in Q2 it will sell for $133

It is impossible to make a rational argument to buy an AMD chip in the $100+ range...

....and these are at STOCK speeds, once overclocking is factored in, a bad situation for AMD becomes and outright bloodbath.

There are just no AMD parts left worth buying (other than the server side, where 4+ core opterons still are very much in the game...)
Intel has effectively "celeroned" the entire x2 line. - AMD is a tier2 supplier selling on price alone.
If Intel executes on the 45 nano shrink of Conroe and a 4.0 ghz part comes out Xmas 2007, AMD is soooooo far behind it's hard to see how they catch up.

The bottom line is really simple: Intel is selling a better chip at a better price.

AMDs Barcelona changes this fundemental fact, or it doesn't. - time will tell.
Unless Barcelona REALLY performs, The rest is just rearranging the deckchairs on the titantic for AMD.

Mighty mighty Intel was brought down several notches by the Prescott debacle - the market has interia, but that inertia is not infinite.

AMD had better get this thing turned around and fast.
January 13, 2007 5:54:05 AM

^^^
F*** man, quadruple post, what are you posting on, a quad core or something? :lol:  :roll:

I'm not disputing your technical analysis between C2D and X2, but in the financial world, it is far more complicated than who simply has the fastest chip when it comes to revenue.

Though it has to be said that the main reason profits are down on expectations is due to the bloody price war as AMD had to dramatically slash prices in the face of C2D.

This of course has Baron's blood boiling as he believes Intel is being 'anticompetitive' with the C2D pricing. :lol: 
January 13, 2007 7:22:03 AM

Jack,

of course it does sound intersting that secure the loan and then the info comes out. If they did this on purpose it could be either good or bad. The good being, in a year or two, this extra loan makes enough of a difference to help them climb out of the problema they have found themselves in, and no one will care or remember even if they do. Those that do remember will call what they did a wise move. The bad, they will run into financial problems, and not be able to cover the loan. Then, they would probably be investigated, or even still they might be. Who knows.

But, it is a little odd. I tend to be on the side though, that those giving AMD the loan are fully aware of what the picture looks like for them, and knew well ahead of us and the press of the upcoming announcement. I can't be sure of this, but, it would make sense to me. Any thoughts?

wes
January 13, 2007 12:43:54 PM

Quote:
^^^
F*** man, quadruple post, what are you posting on, a quad core or something? :lol:  :roll:

I'm not disputing your technical analysis between C2D and X2, but in the financial world, it is far more complicated than who simply has the fastest chip when it comes to revenue.

Though it has to be said that the main reason profits are down on expectations is due to the bloody price war as AMD had to dramatically slash prices in the face of C2D.

This of course has Baron's blood boiling as he believes Intel is being 'anticompetitive' with the C2D pricing. :lol: 


Intel can make chips cheaper than AMD can. They aren't running on loans (equip. bought and paid for) 65nm soon to be 45nm, mature process with high yeilds, has much higher fab capacity, can ramp products to market 2x as fast, and are in a position where they can pretty much controll the price of cpus to a degree.

I think the bussiness side looks just about as bleak.
January 13, 2007 12:59:00 PM

To make a long story short, the financial analysts, and all kind of expert, were announcing a raise in gas price for summer 2006, something like 1.30$ can/liter which happened to be more like around 0.90$..

So, all I have to say is fuck the analysts..
January 13, 2007 2:58:24 PM

Quote:
To make a long story short, the financial analysts, and all kind of expert, were announcing a raise in gas price for summer 2006, something like 1.30$ can/liter which happened to be more like around 0.90$..

So, all I have to say is **** the analysts..


I think too much importance is placed on an analyst's opinion on how a certain stock will do. Think about it, one analyst can say that a stock will be great, while another, who might have a better reputation, might say it will tank. The stock, in my opinion, shouldn't really be affected, since there are two differing opinions, but the analyst with the better rep will probably cause that stock to tumble, and then other analysts will jump on his/her bandwagon, and cause even more of a downfall.

That is just too much power to have over the market, imo.
January 13, 2007 4:34:50 PM

Quote:

This of course has Baron's blood boiling as he believes Intel is being 'anticompetitive' with the C2D pricing. :lol: 


Don't you just HATE companies that sell a better product at a lower price?

Honda's with their damn gas mileage and durability, Bryston Power amps that sound great and never break...

...and now Intel with these darn overperforming underpriced Core2 chips....

The little guy always takes it in the end :) 
January 13, 2007 5:25:58 PM

Wes, I seriously am not after a flaming thread. I am an investor, a techie, and an old timer in the Silicon world. I've invested in and out of AMD for a long time and absolutely do my research after learning my lessons and licking my wounds after Y2K. I've invested in and out of AMD a few times, making decent money. Since 2003 my exposure to tech stocks has been minimal. That said, I really stay on top of what's happening in the indiustry and follow what AMD management has to say. I think there's better chance making money for me investing into growth tech stocks like AMD than Intel. I've built 3 AMD based PC's since 2001, and own 1 PC at home that is an AMD build, and one laptop that is a Pentium M. Heck I converted an absolute Intel fan late 2004 into accepting AMD and now he has built 2 AMD based PC's. I am not a fanboy. I happen however to really love what Intel has to offer now as much as I liked what AMD had to offer prior to 2006.

Now, Charlie's rant was real in nature, he's very sumpathetic to AMD, trust me we all are. The problem is AMD management mislead everyone a month ago at the analyst meeting. There's a pattern developping here: since C2D, AMD has been misleading the fans and now the analysts. Big mkistake, let me tell you, messing with the analysts is a different ballgame. You don't screw with wall street and expect to still get darling coverage. I worked for a company that once did something similar, it might have been an honest mistake (I don't think so), but the payback was a b*&^$ :x

With that said, it is almost comical watching AMD lovers defend Hector, simply amazing. This just tells you the real fanboys on this board :D 

Peace, I gotta watch the replay of Man U and Aston Villa
January 13, 2007 7:39:25 PM

Quote:
There is lots of talk of fiscal games, misleading the press... blah, blah, blah.....
The real reason AMD is in deep sh*t is quite simple.
Core2 Duo is just simply a better chip than the Athlon x2, and Intel has HUGE fab capacity and can crank them out as cheap as the market requires.
AMD had a decent 3Q because Intel was fire sale pricing the Netburst stuff, but this trend will end soon as the E4xxx series replaces the 9xx stuff pretty fast. -
Intel is (other than a few Celerons) 100% Core2 by the end of 2007.

At every pricepoint above $100, the Intel chip just KILLS the AMD part.

FX74 ....a joke... Seriously... this is an embarasment...
5600+? - an E6600 is $200 cheaper and 10% faster
5000+? - and E6600 is 20% faster at the same price, an E6400 just as fast and $100 less money...
There will be also E4400 (2.0 ghz, 800 FSB) at $161 which will be +/- the equal; of an x2 5000+ - for 50% less money!
4600+ - an E6300 kills it for less money....
4200+? An E4300 runs pretty much exactly halfway speed wise between an X2 4200 and and x2 4600. - in Q2 it will sell for $133

It is impossible to make a rational argument to buy an AMD chip in the $100+ range...

....and these are at STOCK speeds, once overclocking is factored in, a bad situation for AMD becomes and outright bloodbath.

There are just no AMD parts left worth buying (other than the server side, where 4+ core opterons still are very much in the game...)
Intel has effectively "celeroned" the entire x2 line. - AMD is a tier2 supplier selling on price alone.
If Intel executes on the 45 nano shrink of Conroe and a 4.0 ghz part comes out Xmas 2007, AMD is soooooo far behind it's hard to see how they catch up.

The bottom line is really simple: Intel is selling a better chip at a better price.

AMDs Barcelona changes this fundemental fact, or it doesn't. - time will tell.
Unless Barcelona REALLY performs, The rest is just rearranging the deckchairs on the titantic for AMD.

Mighty mighty Intel was brought down several notches by the Prescott debacle - the market has interia, but that inertia is not infinite.

AMD had better get this thing turned around and fast.


This is also a good point, Intel is guilty similar marketing tacts when P4 underperformed K8.

Jack

It's all a game kiddies, it's all a game. Unless you're a STOCKholder, and not just a SHAREholder, who really cares? You little boys just love to bicker. Which is why I've turned to flaming. That's really what most of these forums seem to be anyway. If I got banned from Tom's I'd probably have to go and...oh I dunno. Find a site worth reading maybe. I love the article about the porn industry choosing HD-DVD over Blu-Ray. This site is very biased on many things, not to mention it's got some of the worst editing, grammatically speaking. At first, it enlightened me because it's pretty and they've done a good job at throwing some info out at me...grabbing my attention, if you will with well placed adds with bolded headlines, etc. But now? :-( Hmm.
January 13, 2007 7:55:43 PM

its not somuch the amount they lost thats angered investors, its more how they announced it
!