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worried that AMD is gonna die , if marketshare stays......

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January 24, 2007 11:24:11 PM

Overclockers thinks AMD will go bankrupt

yes ,AMD has said that if they dont move out of the 15-20% marketshare that theyve always had within the next 2 years, they can and will possibly go bankrupt and become non-existant.

what are your guys thoughts??

if AMD is done for , does that mean that we will only have Intel to choose from , and prices will be ultra high due to no competition??
January 25, 2007 12:08:24 AM

Someone will finance AMD if it falls too deep.
January 25, 2007 12:09:46 AM

Quote:
Someone will finance AMD if it falls too deep.


it was stated in the article that if they fall too deep , no one will help them.
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January 25, 2007 12:11:21 AM

Quote:
Overclockers thinks AMD will go bankrupt

yes ,AMD has said that if they dont move out of the 15-20% marketshare that theyve always had within the next 2 years, they can and will possibly go bankrupt and become non-existant.

what are your guys thoughts??

if AMD is done for , does that mean that we will only have Intel to choose from , and prices will be ultra high due to no competition??


I'm a better industry analyst than StrollinHo. AMD has already past 20% share and I doubt that will change. It's not liek Newegg stopped selling X2 while Dell has been ramping so obviously share has slightly increased from the Q3 23%.

AMD has too much business to go out of business. They have weathered much worse storms than this without Dell, Lenovo, IBM, Broadcom, ServerWorks, etc.

Barcelona is looking like the "technology" answer while lowering X2 prices may squeeze Intel even more if Barcelona really is 40% faster "per core" than K8(1.8 or 80% dual core means 40% per core) then analysts will have lots of egg to wipe off their faces.

Most of them should be taken out and shot anyway. Right after the lawyers.
January 25, 2007 12:12:25 AM

Quote:
I'm a better industry analyst than StrollinHo.
lol
January 25, 2007 12:13:52 AM

Quote:
Someone will finance AMD if it falls too deep.


it was stated in the article that if they fall too deep , no one will help them.

So you mean that all of the companies that sell AMD will NOT be affected? Why would you even hope that all of the money invested be wasted? AMD is part of an infrastructure as is Intel and either one floundering would be devastating.
January 25, 2007 12:21:45 AM

so if AMD does go too deep in dept , will other companies like dell , lenovo , hp , and motherboard makers , help AMD get back up ?
January 25, 2007 12:30:00 AM

AMD will be acquired by Nvidia in 4 years.

Nostradamius predicted it.
January 25, 2007 12:34:25 AM

not to stroke my own ego, but a lot of what i said in this post is coming true. keep in mind i wrote this op-ed piece back on Jan 5th. many, many people argued with me... but so far i've been right on the financial piece.

the rest of it has yet to happen 'cause r600 ain't out yet.
January 25, 2007 12:36:02 AM

Quote:
so if AMD does go too deep in dept , will other companies like dell , lenovo , hp , and motherboard makers , help AMD get back up ?


lol. i think not.

i seriously doubt it'll ever come to that. AMD operated in the red for years and managed to survive.
January 25, 2007 12:40:39 AM

Quote:
so if AMD does go too deep in dept , will other companies like dell , lenovo , hp , and motherboard makers , help AMD get back up ?


You misunderstand. I don't mean that these companies loan money to ANYONE. I'm saying that they will continue to buy AMD and therefore the lights will at least stay on.
January 25, 2007 12:42:23 AM

Via should have died long time ago then :p . They won't die even if they turn out to be small as Via. There is always niche market. They still have the value market which Intel still doesn't have a right answer to it.
January 25, 2007 12:48:36 AM

Quote:
Via should have died long time ago then :p . They won't die even if they turn out to be small as Via. There is always niche market. They still have the value market which Intel still doesn't have a right answer to it.


yeh true! , its funny how they are still surviving!! , I never see any advertisements from them or nothing!!
January 25, 2007 12:53:19 AM

Completely IMPOSSIBLE to say if their partners would help them back up, but I think it would depend on the magnitude of injury. If AMD experienced catastrophic failure (doubtful) I doubt their retailing parters would help them out, it would just be too costly. All the OEMs would turn to Intel in the wake of AMD's demise (server makers like Sun might relay their business to IBM too). Might be a moot point, as a dying AMD would seem very likely to be acquired by Intel (like 3DFX-Nvidia). They (Intel) would probably keep ATI graphics, a well known name and a chance for them to enter the discrete graphics market. But where does this leave Nvidia, all alone against a now gigantic Intel/AMD/ATI monster...

Subsequently, Intel would probably have the U.S. government (and that of many other countries as well) on them for suddenly becoming a monopoly. Ironically, Intel needs AMD as a competitor to prevent legislation from splintering them like AT&T or Standard Oil. Then again, Intel is much more international than those two were, a great split may be much more difficult to negotiate internationally.

On the other hand, if AMD slowly slugs toward failure, it's partners might save it, as long as their isn't too much cash involved. It's really is all about the money.

**All very hypothetical, all my opinion. Remember, I REALLY don't think it will come to that, but that's what I think will happen if it does.**
January 25, 2007 12:54:40 AM

It will be a sad day if AMD cannot compete with intel anymore....intel will slow down on coming out with really inovative products such as the core 2 and prices will sky rocket. (my opinion)
January 25, 2007 12:59:49 AM

Quote:
It will be a sad day if AMD cannot compete with intel anymore....intel will slow down on coming out with really inovative products such as the core 2 and prices will sky rocket. (my opinion)


haha , imagine , most people here running celeron's !! , high end is too expensive.
January 25, 2007 1:20:24 AM

Quote:
This won't happen.... Barcelona will bring them back to business. 2007 will be rough, we will all then be holding our breath for Nehalem to see what that can do....

I hope you're right. Seeing how the company is going through tough times I now want to buy AMD products if they remain competitive. Call it voluntary affirmative action. I have a mATX build planned for Flight Sim X and I'll use AMD/ATI for it.
January 25, 2007 1:25:54 AM

Good lord people do you think they are gonna go under like that? Come on now. If things get really bad.....which I doubt. They will file bankrupcy and prob keep going. Look at Chrysler and Harley Davidson.

At least the ATI division will keep going. Jeesssss
January 25, 2007 1:27:40 AM

I like what they're doing business wise, focusing on the low mainstream OEM market with good IGPs. They're already well positioned in the server market and Barcelona will help solidify that position. And the Turion X2s are sweet...I can't wait for the shrink. So yeah, AMD it will be for my next couple of builds.
January 25, 2007 1:28:08 AM

Government will subsidize AMD so they won't go bankrupt unless a new X86 CPU company emerges. With AMD going down the toilet Intel would monoploize the market and the government won't let it happen.
January 25, 2007 1:29:03 AM

And SGI.
January 25, 2007 1:37:50 AM

Quote:
It will be a sad day if AMD cannot compete with intel anymore....intel will slow down on coming out with really inovative products such as the core 2 and prices will sky rocket. (my opinion)


This won't happen.... Barcelona will bring them back to business. 2007 will be rough, we will all then be holding our breath for Nehalem to see what that can do....

Jack

I think Barcelona will be very good, but I think Shanghai will be the big one.
January 25, 2007 1:43:48 AM

Quote:
But where does this leave Nvidia, all alone against a now gigantic Intel/AMD/ATI monster...

You know theres a VIA with their CPU's And their S3 Graphics :lol: 
January 25, 2007 3:02:43 AM

Quote:
But where does this leave Nvidia, all alone against a now gigantic Intel/AMD/ATI monster...

You know theres a VIA with their CPU's And their S3 Graphics :lol: 

apparently VIA produces great CPU's , and together with their graphics solutions , top the 3D Mark benchmarks!
January 25, 2007 3:09:29 AM

Guys, it was the motivational talk as do or die.

AMD will never go out of business,in fact sun taking intel will make it even, with their memory bandwidth problem architecture intel doing good will take time,and more its not scalable enough atleast for now.

If AMD's quad hits and it has most chances in that memory hungry server segment, and ppl making choices there are wise enough.

Wealthy intel taking shocks by a less wealthy competitor shows how vulnerable semi conductor business is.

Intel fighting tooth and nail to beat AMD, MAY let investors pour more money into AMD to make it as a better rival.
January 25, 2007 3:42:51 AM

Unfortunately if this happens,INTEL will have a monopoly which by federal law is not allowed.I think AMD will have to appeal to the federal government and ask for financial asistance.The federal gov.has made funding available to other companies to prevent just such a catastrophe in the past.So I think if AMD gets into that much trouble then the government will help if aproached in the right way.Otherwise we will have INTEL setting the prices at whatever they want.This would really not be good for the average consumer.I highly recommend that everyone start supporting AMD right now and help to prevent INTEL from gaining that strangle hold they seem to be looking for.

Dahak

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January 25, 2007 4:00:56 AM

i mean , is there any possiblility of this happening? , i mean if so , im just worried , because I will not pay $500 for a low end Celeron CPU and thats final.

im just really worried , and also for the fact that AMD has bought some great things to the IT industry. And I really hope Barcelona does really well in the server market and maybe make an entering into the desktop PC market.
I think I might buy a Barcelona when it comes out, to replace my 3200+ venice.

and now you dont need to support AMD by buying their CPUS , you can buy their chipsets or GPU's
January 25, 2007 4:09:42 AM

hey man,

go smoke a joint.
January 25, 2007 4:13:41 AM

As long as AMD doesn't try to do anything like blow their investments and as long as the takeover of ATI works well for them, they should be ok. I'm not a market analyst so I will speak from personal opinion. Even if AMD died, a company like IBM or another large corporation that deals in microprocessors would possibly buy out AMD. So in a sense if AMD's product shedded its skin with a new product name and a new company, in essence it would still be AMD.

This is more like an apples to oranges comparison, but the governments around the world would want competition between companies. Look back at hot water Microsoft got with the constant investigation in both the US and I think Europe. The government would not let Intel reign as the only microprocessor company in the world. The government here in America would encourage healthy competition and would be on Intel's tail like white on rice. So yeah, Intel will be the only microprocessor company in the world. But I have to admit they do use some extremely strong arm tactics to try and muscle other competition out of the market.
January 25, 2007 4:39:47 AM

Quote:
not to stroke my own ego, but a lot of what i said in this post is coming true. keep in mind i wrote this op-ed piece back on Jan 5th. many, many people argued with me... but so far i've been right on the financial piece.

the rest of it has yet to happen 'cause r600 ain't out yet.

I really don't like our article. Sorry, but it's statements like, "And to shake things up even further, Wii has been an enormous success." Ati made the Wii Graphics chip so what is that supposed to mean? And this, "but nVidia has almost always been the pioneer in new graphics features and technology. To name a few, they were the first with on chip hardware T&L, pixel shading, SM 3.0, and DX10" DX10 is a microsoft innovation, not Nvidia, and if we're counting it that way ATI came out with the first DX9 card. And this, "The cost of manufacturing GPU’s will reduce significantly once AMD tapes out ATI chips." AMD isn't even talking about manufacturing Ati's chips, that stays to TSMC. I don't think much of what you've predicted will happen, I don't think you're right at all, and I think you made statements without knowing enough about ATI.

I think ATI is the company with better engineers, but Nvidia has much better management. Ati can create better cards but cannot deliver as of late because of bad management. With AMD stepping in ATI will become a more efficient and profitable company. I don't think AMD will be saved by ATI, but ATI by AMD. If AMD hadn't bought Ati where would the r600 be right now? 6 months away?
January 25, 2007 4:43:03 AM

Quote:
It will be a sad day if AMD cannot compete with intel anymore....intel will slow down on coming out with really inovative products such as the core 2 and prices will sky rocket. (my opinion)


This won't happen.... Barcelona will bring them back to business. 2007 will be rough, we will all then be holding our breath for Nehalem to see what that can do....

Jack

I think Barcelona will be very good, but I think Shanghai will be the big one.
Penryn will do as that processor will release to market not long after the 'Stars' processors emerge.
You really haven't a clue when Penryn will be released, so stop acting like it's fact until it is fact. I cannot sit and watch rumors become fact on a forum. Fact is we have no clear idea when the stars processors or the penryn are coming out. It's all speculation.
January 25, 2007 4:57:16 AM

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I really don't like our article.


So go join the club.

Quote:
"And to shake things up even further, Wii has been an enormous success." Ati made the Wii Graphics chip so what is that supposed to mean?


I realize that. Thanks. And what I meant is just what I said... it's shaking things up in the console industry. Obviously it's meant as a good thing for ATI.

Quote:
DX10 is a microsoft innovation


Really? Wasn't aware of that. I don't disagree with the point about ATI first w/ DX9. But had you read my reply you'd have seen that.

Quote:
"The cost of manufacturing GPU’s will reduce significantly once AMD tapes out ATI chips." AMD isn't even talking about manufacturing Ati's chips, that stays to TSMC.


To assume AMD will always use TSMC for fabbing GPU's is fcuking idiodic. It makes absolutely no business sense in the long run. It'll happen. But yes, you're right, AMD has been quiet on the subject. Again, these are what I think will happen. None of it is fact. And I've said that a million times now.

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I don't think much of what you've predicted will happen, I don't think you're right at all, and I think you made statements without knowing enough about ATI.


OK. Great.

Quote:
With AMD stepping in ATI will become a more efficient and profitable company. I don't think AMD will be saved by ATI, but ATI by AMD. If AMD hadn't bought Ati where would the r600 be right now? 6 months away?


A. ATI was doing just fine without AMD
B. Yeah... cause things like mergers and reorganization really speed up the development of new products. LOL. You've clearly never been a part of an acquisition or merger. If anything this whole acquisition has DELAYED R600.

It's really easy to criticize what someone else thinks when it's put out there for everyone to read. Instead of nit picking, go write your own op-ed article so we can all trash yours. Or... in other words... grow some balls.

[/annoyed]
January 25, 2007 5:11:09 AM

Except if I wrote an op-ed article I would expect some people to not like it, and not really be bothered by it so much, like you were. What acquisition merger did you work through?

And our was meant to be your.
January 25, 2007 12:56:21 PM

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I'm a better industry analyst than StrollinHo.

Quote:

AMD has already past 20% share and I doubt that will change. It's not liek Newegg stopped selling X2 while Dell has been ramping so obviously share has slightly increased from the Q3 23%.

Right....because the market as a whole couldn't have increased from Q3 to the seasonally highest quarter, Q4. No...that couldn't be the explanation. Hmm...both companies sold more product in Q4 than in Q3...woah, they BOTH must have gained MSS!

The current actual estimates are that Intel grabbed MSS in servers (and continues to - re:Sun) and desktop and mobile were pretty flat.
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