AMD share price in total meltdown

[Wombat2]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=AMD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=intc

8O

 

[gr8mikey]

I think it would be wise to make sure that Barcelona is the real deal before you place your bet. After getting burned pretty good back in 2002, I will be a bit more cautious this time myself.

 

[crackdlr]

then again intel's stock has gone from $22 a year ago down to $16-$17 now back up to $21 - no one's really makin any money there...


but ya a drop from $40 to $15 (1 yr) is like a free fall off a cliff - glad i wasn't holding that dud.


but hey - can we say undervalued? I think if you pick up that stock a couple weeks before the next "big" processor drops - you'll make a quick buck. I bet you can even do some research and cross reference when AMD ships a good chip how long it takes for their stock to spike (my guess is 4 - 6 weeks)

 

[ajfink]

Buy now, sell in five months, make $$$. I might set up an Ameritrade account just for this.

 

[BaldEagle]

This isn't anything yet wait until the Q2 price cuts for Intel kick in you won't hardly be able to peddle an AMD chip for over $100. They need to get the R600 out now Q1 and Barcelona before Penryn or they fall behind a CPU generation. If they fail to achieve both of those we will see single digit dollars again so hang on the coaster ride isn't over.

 

[commanderspockep]

I think the thread title "AMD price in total meltdown" is a bit misleading. If you look at it over a 2 year period it gives you a whole different perspective.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMD&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=intc

Stocks over time rise and fall. Thats how the stock market works. AMD is a solid company and will slowly rise again. Simply put neither AMD nor Intel is going bankrupt anywtime soon. AMD didn't blindly build a big company and steal market share away from intel becuase of luck. And AMD I would venture is more than aware of what is going on in the market. A lot more aware than people who start these threads.

 

[qcmadness]

2 year?try 5 or ten for a real perspective.go back to 99 and 92.There is an eyeopener for understanding.

I think the op is concerned with AMD and rightfully so.I hope barcelona performs on promise,and AM2+ closes the gap.Elongating this depression of AMD's is tough.Most ranting is done because of the demand for an alternative created by k7 and k8;AMD created that demand,so they can get pyssed off in a conference all they want;people need to see efficient and effective follow through after someone takes the lead.

after all the lead position by nature implies one has the foresight and ability to maintain leadership.By AMD not performing on that level currently,it brings that responsibility into question.The consumer didnt make the leading chip,They did.And now they are not showing that leadership skill.

You are still thinking they have done wrong in the past 3 years.

 

[ajfink]

Actually R600 should be out rather soon. If it's as good as the leaked benchmarks suggest, it should pull things back up.

 

[Parge]

I tell you what, there is absolutely no way I am going anywhere near AMD stocks at the moment, unless they start hitting the $5 mark, but at the moment, and knowing what I know about their roadmap it looks like seriously dark times. And what the HELL do they think they are doing with the R600? I have to admit to being a bit of a fanboy (but I don't talk the talk), but at the moment it seems that Nvidia have got the DX10 market well and truly cornered! Good for them!

 

[ajfink]

I tell you what, there is absolutely no way I am going anywhere near AMD stocks at the moment, unless they start hitting the $5 mark, but at the moment, and knowing what I know about their roadmap it looks like seriously dark times. And what the HELL do they think they are doing with the R600? I have to admit to being a bit of a fanboy (but I don't talk the talk), but at the moment it seems that Nvidia have got the DX10 market well and truly cornered! Good for them!

R600 is coming, as far as I know, late Feb / March.

 

[qcmadness]

3 months after G80.

I hope AMDTI doesnt plan on keeping this pace,the G80 eliminates ATI's quality lead,and core2 eliminates AMD's performance lead.

lets look at intel

2@h 05 900 series cedar mill is oc'ing to 8ghz now
4thQ core duo closes the gap on amd64 at 32bit.
1H 06 core 2 knocks amd down
2h 06 qx6700 makes it clear intel is going to create such a broad lead that it could damage amd.
Q1 07 penryn is said to be a sucess high k announced for 45nm


we could go farther back to show the agressiveness of intels stepping and clock scaling;and then side by side show AMD's scaling and stepping;which is not as impressive.

The situation now is similar with that of 2003 - where AMD is going to release a brand new product. The advancement of current CPU generation will be much slower as it does not have extra resources for perfecting two CPU generations.

 

[qcmadness]

my point is ;INTEL kept moving and changing.When intel announced 65nm I knew then and there amd would fall behind at some point for not answering the change.

AMD is keep moving - ramping Fab 36 with 65nm and K8L perfecting are two extremely difficult tasks for them already.

 

[qcmadness]

this is true too;but they made the mess.I remember saying last june that it would have been better for amd to have never had the lead than to suffer the next year.

I dont and never have envied the work load,but they are getting assistace.not monetarilly but in ways that do help.

Now the guys in Intel knows the guys in AMD are conservative. So the Intel guys will be more aggressive and push multi-core computing.

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

Not true. Shakiranoob says that Intel will bankrupt (or BK as he says) in 2Q of 2008. /end sarcasm

 

[shinigamiX]

If you ask me I'm fairly sure that Barcelona will live up to expectations. When Intel released Core 2 last year they also stated that it would beat K8 by ~40%. While the numbers weren't quite that high they were impressive nonetheless. AMD must have had this in mind when they made their claims regarding K8L's performance. With the beating they are taking right now, being caught BSing would really add salt onto the wound.

 

[sillywabbit]

AMD hit a serious low about 4 years ago hitting around the $3/share mark. They rebounded to $40 due to product launch and just an overall market rebound. As long as they have a new product available and it does not grossly underperform Intel's product, there will be a decent future with AMD stock. If they outperform Intel, the future looks even brighter.

 

[qcmadness]

Thanks jack.

They (AMD) just need to fight their way through 2007, weather the storm and get Barcelona ramped.... they will be fine after that.
Yup,this will be one of the few great buy in times.

I am going to go out on a limb and say Q4 will put AMD back at 18+/- maybe higher.stock prices wil double from the pr0jected low of 8.Or 9 as i prefer to call it.

Confidence is at an all time low for the products and everything is a late answer.Its ripe for a devaluation that will pay big in short order.

meanwhile Oem shares increase;were looking at serious gain potential.

Especially after AMD has got penetration into OEM market with a market share increase despite an inferior design.

 

[pip_seeker]

That's the problem with tech stocks, is that they are very cylical in nature. You will have boom to bust type scenarios. Amd is a good example currently.

Usually if you aren't holding them during the boom you will miss it. Then if you are holding it, things look oh so rosy and you hang on to it too long and before you know it here comes the bust.

If Intel was doing so much better right now then why is their stock price at $20.93 as of today. Amd's last run was double this price. I realize two very different companies in very similar markets.

Goes to show you no one can really time the market. For every analyst that tells you to buy something there may be a few of them quietly selling after you pump up the price.

So this probably explains why there is no buying frenzy over at Intel. The market as a whole is in a slump. Even Apple has warned. Not that they could be considered a reliable news source for processor chips. :roll:

 

[pip_seeker]

you need to consider trade volume as well.even at Intels low last year ,volume was substantially higher.Amd's current volume is almost 1/3rd of intels.

well volume is just another indicator and there is no perfect indicator. We also must realize that the market cap of Intel is much larger than Amd.

So volume is completely an argumentative subject. A company with a larger market cap should have more volume, because usually they will have more shares outstanding.

But I digress, stocks are much more complicated than anything that has been covered in this thread.

 

[darkz]

Here is where I read it:
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070125/25101_id.html?.v=1

Hans Mosesman, Nollenberger Capital: AMD’s business model is fundamentally broken, in our opinion. The Street in our view does not realize this problem given AMD’s recent historical success in terms of market share…we are puzzled by what we consider management’s apparent naivete regarding its its goals for 50%gross margin and 20% computation product sales growth for 2007…Reiterate our Sell rating with an $8 12month price target.

Seeking alpha is a financial blog, but he is quoting respetive analyst that have commented in various financial forms. They range from 8 to 15 bucks.

Yep if I would ever start to speculate on the market I'd do it now by shorting some AMD stock I suspect even at 15/share AMD is really overvalued at this moment.

 

[commanderspockep]

Wow wombat..you are such a wall street tycoon.. :twisted: :twisted:

http://www.tgdaily.com/2007/01/31/amd_q4_2006_share/

Posted hours after you made this thread....lol.

 

[DavidC1]

So much FUD, so much recycled threads going on. Too bad that people with CPUs that are adept at multi-threading like dual core and quad core CPUs aren't better handling Tomshardware threads .

No, I don't think AMD's share would be doom and gloom as they say. Those "analysts" are many times wrong. They are almost like the movie reviewers that rates the most unpopular movies as high rating.

 

[BaldEagle]

Here is where I read it:
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070125/25101_id.html?.v=1

Hans Mosesman, Nollenberger Capital: AMD’s business model is fundamentally broken, in our opinion. The Street in our view does not realize this problem given AMD’s recent historical success in terms of market share…we are puzzled by what we consider management’s apparent naivete regarding its its goals for 50%gross margin and 20% computation product sales growth for 2007…Reiterate our Sell rating with an $8 12month price target.

Seeking alpha is a financial blog, but he is quoting respetive analyst that have commented in various financial forms. They range from 8 to 15 bucks.

Yep if I would ever start to speculate on the market I'd do it now by shorting some AMD stock I suspect even at 15/share AMD is really overvalued at this moment.

It is hard to tell --- certainly short term AMD will likely not look good to investors because they don't care about 'new products' only the bottom line and for a while longer AMD's bottom line will not look very good.

AMD will need to figure out how to string them along until the rain clouds clear and they see brighter days... until then, it will be a hard sell. They did the presentation of the ATI acquisition modeling 50%+ GPM and the analysts were none to impress when GPMs hit 40% or lower this last quarter.

It will improve though, but not until Barcelona, in my opinion.

I sold all my positions in AMD at ~ 35/share shortly after news of Conroe broke as I saw where this was headed.

Jack is right on the short term is bad they are behind on both the GPU and CPU front for performance. INTEL and NVIDIA both have the drop on them now they have to catch up in 2007 or thay will be in extreme trouble.

 

[Sirfiroth]

the sky is falling, SELL, SELL, SELL

Monoply in view

 

[gOJDO]

Where is AMDMeltdown, when we need him? :lol: