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AMD gains MSS on Intel

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January 31, 2007 4:40:06 AM

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Looks like AMD gained on Desktops and gained on Mobile, but lost on servers.

Looks like many of the chips sold are still on the low end. Interesting that Intel is not only selling more server chips now, but their ASPs also went up while AMDs went way down (giving Intel a huge rise in server revenue). No wonder Intel still made big money in a price war. Q1 numbers are going to be incredibly interesting b/w these two titans.

Kudos goes to anyone who can find and old Hector quote stating 30% MSS by 2006! :-D

More about : amd gains mss intel

January 31, 2007 4:54:56 AM

AMD does seem to be taking a page from Intel's playbook - spend money when things look bleak. It actually worked pretty well for Intel, it could work well for AMD. Just not right now. Or next year. But maybe in 2009 (I kid, I kid)!

It's odd though - even though we're all waiting for Barcelona to make a final decision on whether AMD is awesome or completely stupid, it seems like the stock investors have made up their minds...

AMD has highest MSS in their history and yet their stock is at a 52 week low :( 

Can you imagine where the stock will go if Barkie (my new name for Barcelona) merely competes with Core 2 or even Penryn? *shivers*. Maybe they won't need the NY fab afterall.

At least they got rid of Spansion (still wondering if the SEC is curious about that one). I think that company will make a profit...soon? Maybe? Perhaps when Intel closes all NOR based flash fabs :) .

Man, I'm way too pessimistic right now. Must not post anymore for awhile. You can do it AMD! Go go go!
January 31, 2007 5:51:46 AM

Poor Paul O. Sure, he was able to pick up 1% of servers, but he knows that K8L will take more than that.
Even Google has turned around and said they will not be Intel only.
At this point, AMD needs numbers more than ASP. If they can keep those fabs pumping chips out, they will have better position when thier products catch up.
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January 31, 2007 6:02:27 AM

Quote:
It's odd though - even though we're all waiting for Barcelona to make a final decision on whether AMD is awesome or completely stupid, it seems like the stock investors have made up their minds...

AMD has highest MSS in their history and yet their stock is at a 52 week low :( 

It seems a bit strange at first, but from an investors standpoint it's not so odd really. Market share numbers are not of much use when a company is booking millions in the red. I think investors are perhaps a bit shortsighted but that's nothing new either.

I think investors are looking for AMD to show they can sustain healthy profits in the long run, and so far they have not shown this. Combine that with the fact that AMD is losing the performance battle ATM, mindshare etc. it's no surprise to me to see their stock tanking.

One thing we all certainly do NOT need is AMD becoming a marginal player. If that happens, there goes the competition in processors and graphics.
January 31, 2007 7:27:48 AM

Hey guys,

AMD can get 90% of the market share by just giving their processors away. What's better, to sell 100 items at $1000 or 1000 items at $100?

AMD is bleeding dollars and will struggle for a long time to come.

They have made deals to supply products at a low margain to Dell and others just to gain market share and Intel reacted and IMO Intel is punishing them and Intel seeing that the punishment has been a succes will tighten the screws down even further.

You have to have money to make money or be real lucky by fitting into a niche. AMD had a niche situation but decided to try to take the bone away from the big dog, I think they found out the big dog bites pretty hard when you try and take his bone away from him.
January 31, 2007 1:03:00 PM

I guess this falls into the category of a lack of consistency, but AMD has had 50% of the desktop market in a couple quarters. Now they're back down to 30%. I think last quarter, more than anything else, shows their strength in mobile - I've seen more Turion's in the retail stores and as we know, most unknowing consumers buy their goods from a physical store.

On a sidenote, I was in a Fry's the other day and heard a salesman telling a customer that "These Intel chips [C2D's] will give you slightly better performance than the AMD processors, but take much more power and run hotter." Yikes! I went up to the salesman and asked how much more performance the C2Ds had over the 900 series Intel chips, he said "They C2Ds are a little better on some areas like games, but for the most part are the same." We're living in a different world, guys.
January 31, 2007 1:20:39 PM

Quote:
It's odd though - even though we're all waiting for Barcelona to make a final decision on whether AMD is awesome or completely stupid, it seems like the stock investors have made up their minds...

AMD has highest MSS in their history and yet their stock is at a 52 week low :( 

It seems a bit strange at first, but from an investors standpoint it's not so odd really. Market share numbers are not of much use when a company is booking millions in the red. I think investors are perhaps a bit shortsighted but that's nothing new either.

I think investors are looking for AMD to show they can sustain healthy profits in the long run, and so far they have not shown this. Combine that with the fact that AMD is losing the performance battle ATM, mindshare etc. it's no surprise to me to see their stock tanking.

One thing we all certainly do NOT need is AMD becoming a marginal player. If that happens, there goes the competition in processors and graphics.

I disagree. AMD has shown profitability all through 2006. People actually appreciate Intel's predatory practices and say that they shouldn't affect AMD. Please!!!

They are the ballsiest company in the world. I mean they took a real hit with the price war they kept going and from the acqisition. I would bet that the new platforms intro'd at CES will take off. Especially with Turions and 65nm.

Dec analyst Day puts them exactly where I figured. 50% 65nm this summer. 50% 45nm next summer.

They should hit 30% desktop and 27% overall by Q2.

It's funnyhow every ANalyst Day ends with the "cautionary future estimates" disclaimer and people say they're either lying or incompetent or both.

I'm beginning to hope they run Intel out of business.
January 31, 2007 1:47:31 PM

OMG Jack, LMAO at that analogy, you showed your age! (unfortunately I remember the episode)
January 31, 2007 2:03:33 PM

Nothing unfortunate about it. That's one of the best eps ;) 

January 31, 2007 2:38:01 PM

It was also in DS9 (Deep Space 9), maybe he ain't that old.

What is the current revenue share at btw :p 
January 31, 2007 2:48:09 PM

Quote:
Did you ever see that classic Star Trek episode -- "Trouble with Tribbles".... these poor fluff balls, got into some grain --- the grain though was poisoned with an inert substance such that the more one ate the less nutrients would be consumed... to the point they starved to death....

AMD is in tribble right now :) 

-- 30% unit share will not do him any good, he needs 30% revenue share :) 

Before my time :lol: 
January 31, 2007 4:11:34 PM

Quote:


I'm beginning to hope they run Intel out of business.


Your kidding right???? Well if that happens i hope you enjoy the rapping that will occur. It was not long ago that AMD was charging $700 for a X2 4800+. I guess you must be made of money. :roll:
January 31, 2007 4:18:36 PM

Hope they run Intel out of business? What ever happened to that "ALL HAIL THE DUOPOLY" shtick?
January 31, 2007 4:38:23 PM

Quote:
Hey guys,

AMD can get 90% of the market share by just giving their processors away. What's better, to sell 100 items at $1000 or 1000 items at $100?

AMD is bleeding dollars and will struggle for a long time to come.

They have made deals to supply products at a low margain to Dell and others just to gain market share and Intel reacted and IMO Intel is punishing them and Intel seeing that the punishment has been a succes will tighten the screws down even further.

You have to have money to make money or be real lucky by fitting into a niche. AMD had a niche situation but decided to try to take the bone away from the big dog, I think they found out the big dog bites pretty hard when you try and take his bone away from him.


They can't get 90% market share, AMD will be able to supply 35% of CPU demand only after fully ramping to 65nm ... AMD can't get market share above 35%. Perriod. They don't have the fabs! Even when they will eventually build the NY 32nm fab they won't catch up with Intel or surpass then in growth!

For AMD to supply 90% percent of the market they will need more than a half dozen fabs with smaller than 65 nm production process.

You want link?
January 31, 2007 4:48:45 PM

Quote:
Hope they run Intel out of business? What ever happened to that "ALL HAIL THE DUOPOLY" shtick?


All of you.
February 2, 2007 2:32:25 AM

Sweet pic, oh the memories!
February 2, 2007 6:16:14 AM

Quote:
is that their cap with the 3rd party fab?They were using an outside fab to finish some 90nm et al etc.whatever.dont know what they can supply though.


The extra capacity from Fab 7 of Chartered Semi-conductor is too little to affect the total capacity significantly.
February 2, 2007 6:29:19 AM

Market share is great, even though AMD margins are much lower since C2D release. As soon as AMD can release similar~better cpu's than Intels at that period, market share will be shiftly converted to cash cow, since you dont have to sell better performance cpu's with 50% discount as AMD have to do with X2 series atm :) 
February 2, 2007 7:26:01 AM

Amd will make a comeback soon enough.People need to remember that they just recently purchased ati and I firmly believe that that particular gamble will pay off nicely in the next several months.Basically what I'm saying is don't count amd out until they are out.Amd makes some real good products and so does ati.All this bad mouthing amd keeps getting is doing just as much damage as anything else right now.So please be positive and wait it out.Eventualy the sun will rise on amd again.

Dahak

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