amd stock price +5,5% - what´s the reason - CPUs

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutu [...] igned.aspx

any ideas why they did this ?

Reply to bonkers

Quote :

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutu [...] igned.aspx

any ideas why they did this ?

Maybe they're professional investors and understand what AMDs place is. Everyone knows that Barcelona will kill K8 Opteron. That means better prices, more design wins and renewed confidence.

Stocks tend to rise on those kinds of things.

Reply to BaronMatrix

Quote :

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutu [...] igned.aspx

any ideas why they did this ?

Maybe they're professional investors and understand what AMDs place is. Everyone knows that Barcelona will kill K8 Opteron. That means better prices, more design wins and renewed confidence.

Stocks tend to rise on those kinds of things.

Stocks naturally rise after rebound off a 52 week low because investors don't look at the underlying company they play the bounce. Another trip down past $14.50 should break out the bottom for a drop to $13.

Hector isn't going to get Barcelona out until 08 and in the mean time has to figure out how to pull $2B out of thin air to get to 2008 on shrinking margins.

Reply to BaldEagle

It's easy to look very foolish when you try to forecast stock price movements, as you learn after you try 100 times or so. For example, technical analysis seems so convincing for but when objective analysis is done on it, it is found to be mostly random, and only the most extremely basic stuff, like the 5 day SMA actually works kinda.

Of course, any of that is overwhelmed immediately by any kind of relevant news. TA is basically a fools game.

Today, the news is that there is new rumors of a private equity interest in AMD. This isn't so hard to imagine IMO, since the price is quite low relative to the whole picture of assets, etc.

Anyway, someone can forecast AMD to be $9 all they want, and if it happens they can pretend they are god's left hand, and if it doesn't happen they can pretend they never said it, and it can slip their mind, and they can continue to feel confident in their special magical stock price forecast abilities.

Just my 2 cents from years of watching these things.

Reply to halbhh

Quote :

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutu [...] igned.aspx

any ideas why they did this ?

Dead cat bounce. Just along for the ride with the rest of the broader tech sector.

Intel is not along for the ride today as the IRS says they owe 2 billion in taxes. Of course intel will dispute this.

Reply to gr8mikey

To simplify what I said, *all* the forecasts of short term stock price movements are for fools. And in the worst case those forecasts are made in order to manipulate the price while a trader takes the other side of the trade to rip you off.

Reply to halbhh

Quote :

Stocks naturally rise after rebound off a 52 week low because investors don't look at the underlying company they play the bounce. Another trip down past $14.50 should break out the bottom for a drop to $13.

Hector isn't going to get Barcelona out until 08 and in the mean time has to figure out how to pull $2B out of thin air to get to 2008 on shrinking margins.

Barcelona is due in June @ 2.1GHz - 2.3GHz. Linkage! They can't fully ramp because they only have one 65nm Fab (along with Chartered) and have to provide space for Brisbane, Lima, Kuma, Agena, Agena FX and Budapest.

It's funny how when Intel pushed back Penryn (only select Xeons will launch this year) no one cried they can't keep up. Why is that?

Barcelona is a totally new arch as Hector said so you need to install masks and qualify the process.

You all deserve a $900 965EE.

Reply to BaronMatrix

[quote="BaronMatrix"]

Quote :

It's funny how when Intel pushed back Penryn (only select Xeons will launch this year) no one cried they can't keep up. Why is that?

Intel is much farther ahead in the manufacturing game it's not as big of a deal. I am do not like to see AMD so far behind.

Reply to AdamBomb42

Quote :

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutu [...] igned.aspx

any ideas why they did this ?

No, I don't know why. I was planning to buy another 100 shares this morning using some gambling money. But I was a day late. I do think the company heads are acting like idiots, but at some point the stock will bottom and then start to rise again. Should of bought Friday and made some quick money, but I think this rise will be short lived and then it will go back down. Then I'll go ahead with the gambling money. Hey, I am from Nevada and sometimes a gamble pays back big.

Reply to Sailer

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/fin [...] HHIEO0.htm this might give an explanation.

Quote :

Shares of chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. jumped in Monday midday trading as rumors of a leveraged buyout re-circulated.

Reply to cryogenic

Renewed rumors of an LBO buyout.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070226/amd_mover.html?.v=1

Not surprising since AMD's balance sheet and cash flow look like crap and clearly they will have to do something before they run out of cash. Debt markets are not likely to look kindly on AMD at the moment and asset sales will make the ATI purchase look like gigantic mgt mistake in addition to constituting a total reversal of their strategy of "we need to make this a real duopoly to survive".

Now it's true there is a ton of LBO money floating around and some may be tempted by the fall in AMD's price and it's (seemingly) dirt cheap valuation. On the other hand I just don't see LBO money coming to a company heavily in debt and bleeding money in a fast moving highly competitive tech industry. Stuff like TXU is the traditional target for such buyouts, but I guess there is a first for everything.

Reply to Periander

Quote :

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutu [...] igned.aspx

any ideas why they did this ?

There are fairly serious rumors floating around about a buyout, IBM is being rumored on the top of that list. But rumors are just rumors and they are sometimes started to get a feel of the water. The upper managment at AMD are sure acting and talking as though there is something going on.

About a year ago I heard from a analyist that Sony and Panasonic both were both looking to expand into other marketplaces

Reply to intelamduser

I wouldn't be totally averse to IBM buying out AMD. That would probably lead to a pretty large restructuring of IBM in general to accommodate.

Imagine, Intel as the R&D underdog.

Reply to ajfink

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It's funny how when Intel pushed back Penryn (only select Xeons will launch this year) no one cried they can't keep up. Why is that?

Typical, Intel is ahead of schedule and you say they're behind. :roll:

Intel had said, prior to the tape out on Penryn and running on A0 silicon, that 45 nm chips were not going to be seen in volume until Q1 '08, now we're going to start seeing them in H2 '07.

If AMD could put out something that could beat Intel's processors in perfomance, I would buy it, but right now, Intel has the ball and they don't look to be letting go anytime soon.

Reply to balister

Quote :

Stocks naturally rise after rebound off a 52 week low because investors don't look at the underlying company they play the bounce. Another trip down past $14.50 should break out the bottom for a drop to $13.

Hector isn't going to get Barcelona out until 08 and in the mean time has to figure out how to pull $2B out of thin air to get to 2008 on shrinking margins.

Barcelona is due in June @ 2.1GHz - 2.3GHz. Linkage! They can't fully ramp because they only have one 65nm Fab (along with Chartered) and have to provide space for Brisbane, Lima, Kuma, Agena, Agena FX and Budapest.

It's funny how when Intel pushed back Penryn (only select Xeons will launch this year) no one cried they can't keep up. Why is that?

Barcelona is a totally new arch as Hector said so you need to install masks and qualify the process.

You all deserve a $900 965EE.

Hector Said "People are committed to the architecture and product, and it will be a very significant part of revenue and earning in 2008." Henri Richards said "It's slated for introduction at the end of the second quarter and will be in the market in the third quarter." That says this is a paper launch quantities are not going to be available until FY 2008 $2B in losses from now.

Intel should and does get ripped for pushing back Penryn you just seem to be more sensitive to criticism of AMD. Financially AMD doesn't have the $/time to be late delivering Barcelona.

You seem confused about architecture and process which is it the 65nm process or the new cpu architecture.

I would prefer if AMD and Intel trade blows in the CPU wars but if AMD doesn't get it together soon Intel may be last CPU standing then you'll wish you could get an xxxEE for under $1000.

Reply to BaldEagle

Quote :

To simplify what I said, *all* the forecasts of short term stock price movements are for fools. And in the worst case those forecasts are made in order to manipulate the price while a trader takes the other side of the trade to rip you off.

Short term stock speculation is just like gambling. Think of it as playing craps and the TA only tells you how many sides the dice have 6,8,12,20...

Reply to BaldEagle

The Stock surge is reported to be fueled by the Private sector investors interest in AMD

I will post that link, that I found but didn't bookmark, when I find it again.

_______________
No matter where you go or what you do, you live your entire life within the confines of your head”. ~Terry Josephson

Reply to Sirfiroth

Quote :

To simplify what I said, *all* the forecasts of short term stock price movements are for fools. And in the worst case those forecasts are made in order to manipulate the price while a trader takes the other side of the trade to rip you off.

Short term stock speculation is just like gambling. Think of it as playing craps and the TA only tells you how many sides the dice have 6,8,12,20...

The gambling part is right. But I disagree about the TA generalization. The most convincing long term analysis by an expert academic technician I saw on the big picture pointed out only a small bit of TA has proven itself to work over the long haul. The 5day SMA was best, and that's no more or less than just short term momentum. If you use it, you're still part of the gambling table of course, and the sharks at the table have their eye on all the marks.

Reply to halbhh

Quote :

To simplify what I said, *all* the forecasts of short term stock price movements are for fools. And in the worst case those forecasts are made in order to manipulate the price while a trader takes the other side of the trade to rip you off.

Short term stock speculation is just like gambling. Think of it as playing craps and the TA only tells you how many sides the dice have 6,8,12,20...

The gambling part is right. But I disagree about the TA generalization. The most convincing long term analysis by an expert academic technician I saw on the big picture pointed out only a small bit of TA has proven itself to work over the long haul. The 5day SMA was best, and that's no more or less than just short term momentum. If you use it, you're still part of the gambling table of course, and the sharks at the table have their eye on all the marks.

At least your not the mark in the water that's bleeding though they are the first to go.

Reply to BaldEagle

I think that it is up because while there is a bit of doubt(investors hate). There is still the prospect of AMD pulling great things odd. While I use to like AMD more than Intel I'm not humbled but hopeful AMD will comeback/keep Intel in check in the form of heavy competetion. An AMDTI notebook chipset>Intel's could push AMD ahead in the notebook sector(consumers) while a really good native quad-core could push them to larger market share growth in the business/server market(big $$ here). If that was to fly, without winning a best processor mark or pleasing enthusiasts such as us they could be on track to do their best work yet. In the meantime the current market is doing well for them with HP/Dell and IBM all selling AMD now. The problem is the massive debt the ATI acquisition has brought and if they don't release some chipsets/a video card soon they could have bought a really big anchor. Also bad news from Intel(IRS) tends to be good news for AMD stocks. They are stupidly related in share price often perhaps.

Reply to will14

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hmmm

Who would be sniffing around with that kind of money?IBM?

Daddy Warbucks.

Reply to 1Tanker

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I think walmart should buy amd. then they could make thier own line of electronics and stuff walmart style. (cheap as hell)

No, no, a thousand times NO! Sorry, the picture of cruising the aisles and looking for a Walmart powered computer with the price marked down is something reserved for nightmares.

Reply to Sailer

Quote :

Hector Said "People are committed to the architecture and product, and it will be a very significant part of revenue and earning in 2008." Henri Richards said "It's slated for introduction at the end of the second quarter and will be in the market in the third quarter." That says this is a paper launch quantities are not going to be available until FY 2008 $2B in losses from now.

Intel should and does get ripped for pushing back Penryn you just seem to be more sensitive to criticism of AMD. Financially AMD doesn't have the $/time to be late delivering Barcelona.

You seem confused about architecture and process which is it the 65nm process or the new cpu architecture.

I would prefer if AMD and Intel trade blows in the CPU wars but if AMD doesn't get it together soon Intel may be last CPU standing then you'll wish you could get an xxxEE for under $1000.

No it's exactly what I said deciding between high volume parts or high margin parts. Since the server market is relatively small it's reasonable the Barcelona server parts will trickle in more slowly with ONE 65nm Fab.

It remains to be seen how aggressively they will ramp Kuma/Agena after Q3 but even then the decision needs to be made as to which SKUs get fab space first.
X2 Brisbane is a fine chip as is Windsor and is not that far behind other than enthusiast thinking. That's why the price cuts have kept AMD gaining share.

I think it sucks though that Intel is artificially inflating prices leaving NetBurst higher than C2D in many cases (no NetBurst can even beat 4300) while everyone is so concerned with only Core 2.

Hopefully this year will be a lesson to both companies to let someone else hype their products.

At any rate AMD is still very much in the game with 25% (maybe 26% by Q2) of the world market. That makes it difficult to be bought out as the real money people know that means guaranteed income.

Reply to BaronMatrix

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I wouldn't be totally averse to IBM buying out AMD. That would probably lead to a pretty large restructuring of IBM in general to accommodate.

Imagine, Intel as the R&D underdog.

I wouldn't mind if IBM were to buy AMD. Actually they would be crazy not to if they ever had the chance.

As Bill Gates said some years ago in a live interview when asked if he was afraid of Google, he said "no" IBM is the company they should be worried about. At the time I thought the man was nuts.

Reply to cryogenic

[quote="verndewd"]

Quote :

X2 Brisbane is a fine chip as is Windsor and is not that far behind other than enthusiast thinking. That's why the price cuts have kept AMD gaining share.

I think it sucks though that Intel is artificially inflating prices leaving NetBurst higher than C2D in many cases (no NetBurst can even beat 4300) while everyone is so concerned with only Core 2.

Hopefully this year will be a lesson to both companies to let someone else hype their products.

At any rate AMD is still very much in the game with 25% (maybe 26% by Q2) of the world market. That makes it difficult to be bought out as the real money people know that means guaranteed income.

Yep cant argue with that.But I would feel inclined to think AMD will have more OEM this year than that,as high as 38%

If Barcelona makes a dent it's possible but I don't see more than a few % below market growth or about 9% (that's 34% but mainly because of market growth).

AMDs next frontier is revenue share which is what they want to do with Barcelona from what I'm seeing. It would be more economical for companies who have adopted Opteron to pay a similar price for quad core as the dual core they would be replacing rather than switch over to Intel.

I guess the benches will tell the story for H207.

Reply to BaronMatrix

1) amd stock is extremely oversold

shorts are pushing it down so it goes lower then it should

2) private equity buy out is rumored

the world is awash with cash trillions and trillions the china has a trillion in cash alone. people pull their money and buy out low priced bargains and those hurting amd is a steel at 14-15 its a good buy in low 20's

Reply to dragonsprayer

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Yep cant argue with that.But I would feel inclined to think AMD will have more OEM this year than that,as high as 38%

You're high vern.

:wink:

Reply to 1Tanker

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:lol: :lol:

Thanks T ,But I can see the possibility of OEM hitting 38% easilly by the end of the year or sooner.

Lets just keep that in mind as vista sales grow in march.And when AM2+ is out and sales pick up in Q4.

As far as bieng high goes,I think its a permanent affliction now;I dont need to do it as i have become it. :lol:

I think 30% would be a commendable, and more realistic share. 13% increase is HUGE

Reply to 1Tanker

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Year end could do 28%-40-?% pretty easilly with all the new oem contracts.With margins so low we wouldnt see the stock rising as high as it should.It should rebound into the 20's during peak vista sales at least.If it were a good year for amd chips and timely releases wed see 30's and 40's.

Oh please, please, let AMD stock see the 30's and 40's. Then I wouldn't have to hear my son saying "Dad, you bought AMD? Are you crazy or something?" about buying the stuff. Then I could be the one having the last laugh.

And oh yes, let AMD release a cpu so good that everybody and their brother or sister says "I got to get me one of these!".

Reply to Sailer

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so for amd to go up to 38% that means intel would have to lose ~13%
i dont see that happening when they have C2D E6300and 4300.
I am more worried that amd is going to try to flood the market with all these CPU's for dirt cheap just so they can say "we took market share!"
but in reality they will endup with a devalued product and their asp will go even lower and possibly drive their stock down even further.

It can be possible for AMD to raise the market share beyond 30%.
The trend of AMD taking market share is still here.

Reply to qcmadness

I like it that its a hot topic in trade, and I hope it keeps hot tomorrow with the stock reaching ever higher. I imagine that the enthusiast market isn't all that big, whatever we like to think of ourselves. Its more what corperate America thinks and buys, as well as casual home comsumers who know more about the advertisement on TV then they do about the actual product.

Reply to Sailer

Quote :

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutu [...] igned.aspx

any ideas why they did this ?

Try looking past the charts and at the news.... take over rumors.

Reply to kamel5547

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=IBM&annual
IBM is a huge business, but they have alot on their plates right now,and they have said they are vocused on their liabilities at under 40%,right now they are sitting at around 74%, so i doubt they would buy AMD which has a liablity sitting at around 50%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMD&annual
All this is without includeing any of the debt they took when they bought ATI ofcoarse...OTOH, I think someone is looking to buy AMD, becouse the stocks are being bought incredibly fast...and not just buy me, althought im buying all I can find

Reply to jackxlj

Quote :

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=IBM&annual
IBM is a huge business, but they have alot on their plates right now,and they have said they are vocused on their liabilities at under 40%,right now they are sitting at around 74%, so i doubt they would buy AMD which has a liablity sitting at around 50%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMD&annual
All this is without includeing any of the debt they took when they bought ATI ofcoarse...OTOH, I think someone is looking to buy AMD, becouse the stocks are being bought incredibly fast...and not just buy me, althought im buying all I can find

I'll sell you mine for what I paid for them...

Reply to intelamduser

Quote :

...OTOH, I think someone is looking to buy AMD, becouse the stocks are being bought incredibly fast...and not just buy me, althought im buying all I can find

I did not know that you were supposed to look for available AMD stocks in order to purchase them. I thought you just decide to buy them... and then go buy them.

Reply to Ranman68k

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I don't see how IBM buying out AMD changes anything on the R&D prespective.... AMD is completely dependent upon IBM as it stands, they don't need to buy them out. AMD has almost no R&D budget relative to Intel or IBM. Intel has always played second fiddle to IBM in terms of R&D funding, yet Intel always is ahead.

Intel is ahead of IBM in both R AND D? 8O :wink:

Reply to Ranman68k

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I'll sell you mine for what I paid for them...

Since you brought it up... Exactly how mch did you pay for them?

On second thought... Maybe I don't want to know. :lol:

Reply to Ranman68k

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Intel is ahead of IBM in both R AND D? 8O :wink:

AMD is ahead in D(delays).
Second only to Microsoft.
Microsoft likes the way AMD has mislead and delayed R600 and Barcelona and thinks they fit in the Microsoft mindset.

Reply to will14

to buy the stock,you must find some of it for sale, and it isnt as easy to buy as it once was, as people are holding it, and buying. Im buying AMD becouse it is at a very low price, and I cant imagine it wont go up again, trends rise and fall, and it may take a few years, but AMD will be on top again, and the stock will reflect that. Im a laid back player of the stock game, im willing to hold something for a while if it means profits down the road, as i only invest what i can afford to lose... and sence my choice was new car, or stock, and my current car is only 2 years old anyway...new stocks it was!

Reply to jackxlj

You should buy AMD stock now! It has plummeted around 30 cents along with rest of the stock market being down over rumors of slowing economy and market correction.

Reply to bfellow

Quote :

I'll sell you mine for what I paid for them...

Since you brought it up... Exactly how mch did you pay for them?

On second thought... Maybe I don't want to know. :lol:

$24.56

Reply to intelamduser

Quote :

You should buy AMD stock now! It has plummeted around 30 cents along with rest of the stock market being down over rumors of slowing economy and market correction.

WHY???? There is no reason to buy AMD it will fall back to 14.50 and linger for a while until there is some news to move it up or down.

Reply to BaldEagle

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Ooops, what I mean by that is Intel is always the one pushing the envelope in terms of novel process technologies --- example

- First with eSiGe
- First with low-K materials in the back end.
- Always a node ahead at any given time.
- First with NiSi
- Now, appears to be first with high-K....

There are only a few things IBM can lay claim to... Cu (dual damascene) and SOI (which Intel ran an experimental line to see what gives and said --eh' not good enough -- this must have really embarrassed IBM ).

Well... Someone has got to do it! Kudos to Intel. They are setting the bar pretty high.

It can't be fun following the leader all of the time.

Reply to Ranman68k

Quote :

I'll sell you mine for what I paid for them...

Since you brought it up... Exactly how mch did you pay for them?

On second thought... Maybe I don't want to know. :lol:

$24.56

Dude! 8O I'm sorry to hear that.

Reply to Ranman68k

amd stock price +5,5% - what´s the reason

Forum CPU & Components : CPUs amd stock price +5,5% - what´s the reason

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