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AMD on 32nm

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March 7, 2007 1:22:37 PM

http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=38063

For lazy ones :wink:
Quote:
Mass production will begin in 2010

Quote:
This technology is likely to end up being used to manufacture AMD microprocessors.


If AMD could mass deliver 32 nm cpu's in 2010, that would be a great news.

More about : amd 32nm

March 7, 2007 1:30:52 PM

Whoah, from that site, everything could be a hearsay... Well, we'll just hope its gonna be a fruitful year for the green's.. Right now, they're even struggling to release the Barcelonas'.. :roll:
March 7, 2007 1:32:28 PM

The only problem is that we're in early 2007 now and AMD is still to deliver it's 65nm K10s.
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March 7, 2007 1:36:33 PM

Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:
March 7, 2007 1:39:20 PM

Quote:
The only problem is that we're in early 2007 now and AMD is still to deliver it's 65nm K10s.


True, but Dell is gonna suck all those CPUs too (as per another member's adamant reasonings).

The thing about 32nm is that AMD still hasn't been able to fully test immersion lithography with 45nm, to see if it's a viable solution, let alone 32nm. Sure, they could ride IBM's R&D's coattails, but again, it might require retooling of a fab for those specific layers/processes.

Until 65nm or even 45nm is running stable for AMD, talking about 32nm is just PR.

I'm with m25 on this. Until AMD actually does start producing in quantity some newer stuff, both to OEM and channel, it's all talk.
March 7, 2007 1:45:04 PM

NMDante, AMD isnt talking about 32nm as of yet (that I know of), its IBM plans and IMO AMD could jump on this train. 3-4 years is enough time frame for it, again IMO.

As you work for Intel, share some news when Intel is planning to switch to 32 nm (skipping possible PR :wink:) 
March 7, 2007 1:51:29 PM

Quote:
NMDante, AMD isnt talking about 32nm as of yet (that I know of), its IBM plans and IMO AMD could jump on this train. 3-4 years is enough time frame for it, again IMO.

As you work for Intel, share some news when Intel is planning to switch to 32 nm (skipping possible PR :wink:) 


I personally wouldn't know when Intel is planning to go to 32nm. That's not what I do at work. I am just a grunt in the fab, not one of the decision makers. Sorry. I am guessing, 32nm transition is still on a roadmap somewhere.

As for AMD not talking about 32nm. Yes, I know the article is about IBM. But the OP titled it "AMD on 32nm", so I am sticking with that, along with the last sentence in the Inq. article, which is quoted in OP's first post.

3-4 years is viable for a transition, but it won't be cheap, and without really stablizing 45nm, it could be a diaster. Again, that's my opinion. If IBM has a stable 32nm process, and retooling is not a major cost factor, then AMD can, in theory, almost skip 45nm and go to 32nm. Again, that's just a theory.
March 7, 2007 1:52:48 PM

Quote:
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=38063

For lazy ones :wink:
Mass production will begin in 2010

Quote:
This technology is likely to end up being used to manufacture AMD microprocessors.


If AMD could mass deliver 32 nm cpu's in 2010, that would be a great news. :lol:  Yeah!Great for Intel!
March 7, 2007 2:20:15 PM

Quote:
The only problem is that we're in early 2007 now and AMD is still to deliver it's 65nm K10s.


True, but Dell is gonna suck all those CPUs too (as per another member's adamant reasonings).

The thing about 32nm is that AMD still hasn't been able to fully test immersion lithography with 45nm, to see if it's a viable solution, let alone 32nm. Sure, they could ride IBM's R&D's coattails, but again, it might require retooling of a fab for those specific layers/processes.

Until 65nm or even 45nm is running stable for AMD, talking about 32nm is just PR.

I'm with m25 on this. Until AMD actually does start producing in quantity some newer stuff, both to OEM and channel, it's all talk.

If IBM does all the legwork and AMD gets to coatail it .... then AMD will get 32um out alot earlier..... but they still have to tool a fab for it...
March 7, 2007 2:28:01 PM

Quote:
Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:


people tend to buy what INTEL is selling alot easier because INTEL has all the dollars.... AMD is smaller so people tend to think they cant get it done...or take a SHOW ME stance...
March 7, 2007 2:32:16 PM

Uh..where is the news here? IBM is working on 32nm? Duh. It's on the roadmap for 2010? Once again duh, but remember that roadmaps don't always translate to reality and there is a hell of a lot more to any process than just photomasks.

Right now IBM/AMD needs to get .65 yields and performance up to par. Intel has always been ahead in process tech, but I can't recall a time that they have been as far ahead as they seem to be now.
March 7, 2007 2:32:54 PM

Quote:
Whoah, from that site, everything could be a hearsay... Well, we'll just hope its gonna be a fruitful year for the green's.. Right now, they're even struggling to release the Barcelonas'.. :roll:


What makes you think they are struggling to put out Barcelona..... is there a roadmap i havent seen that AMD put out that shows the K10 to be out earlier?
March 7, 2007 2:47:19 PM

3 years to make 2 process steps when 65nm is not even baked is a pretty bold announcement. Trying to skip 45nm could be a nightmare since the lessons learned at 45nm are crucial to a smooth 32nm.

Technical issues aside, full production on 32nm in 2010 means that AMD needs to drop $3-4 billion right now to build the fab... I don't see that happening unless they managed to lease some fab capacity from Intel.
March 7, 2007 2:52:40 PM

the NY FAB?

they getting that pretty much free....they could build that for 32um
March 7, 2007 2:59:06 PM

Quote:
the NY FAB?

they getting that pretty much free....they could build that for 32um


Not quite free...a $1 billion dollar subsidy isn't enough to build a fab these days. It'll take another $2-$3 billion more.
March 7, 2007 3:06:13 PM

Quote:
Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:


Actually, speaking as a former stockholder of AMD, I think the bad news about AMD is founded. Ever since last fall, starting with the FX70-74 disaster, AMD hasn't come out with much of anything. Oh yes, a new motherboard and that's all well and good, but that motherboard was in the works before AMD bought ATI. The R600 was supposed to be out last fall, then got delayed, and delayed again, and delayed even again. The promised new cpu's get delayed over and over. The company execs are selling out their own personal shares of AMD. No exec has bought any AMD stock this year, only sold.

Having mainly bought AMD processors and ATI video cards for the past few years, I'd like to see some new stuff come out, but for now, we get delays and excuses. There comes a point when even the faithful start opening their eyes and seeing reality. At least some do.
March 7, 2007 3:32:54 PM

Quote:
Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:


When did I start hearing about Barcelona by AMD and how it would be a C2D killer...... Oh yeah, a long time ago. When did Intel start touting Penryn as being the end all CPU..... Oh yeah, just recently.

How long has Intel had 45nm processors released, but no Penryn?
How long has AMD had 65nm processors out but no Barcelona?

Me thinks Barcelona has issues.
March 7, 2007 3:35:52 PM

Quote:
The only problem is that we're in early 2007 now and AMD is still to deliver it's 65nm K10s.


True, but Dell is gonna suck all those CPUs too (as per another member's adamant reasonings).

The thing about 32nm is that AMD still hasn't been able to fully test immersion lithography with 45nm, to see if it's a viable solution, let alone 32nm. Sure, they could ride IBM's R&D's coattails, but again, it might require retooling of a fab for those specific layers/processes.

Until 65nm or even 45nm is running stable for AMD, talking about 32nm is just PR.

I'm with m25 on this. Until AMD actually does start producing in quantity some newer stuff, both to OEM and channel, it's all talk.

the trouble with AMDs 65nm chips now, is they're scaling a 90nm to 65nm. ATi had the same problem just scaling there 90nm chips to 80nm, nVidia reported problems too thats why they didn't transition/haven't so quickly. If AMD can design a 32nm part from scratch then they won't need 45nm, they can skip right into 32, providing IBM and partner can make a stable 32nm process.
March 7, 2007 3:43:33 PM

Quote:
Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:


Actually, speaking as a former stockholder of AMD, I think the bad news about AMD is founded. Ever since last fall, starting with the FX70-74 disaster, AMD hasn't come out with much of anything. Oh yes, a new motherboard and that's all well and good, but that motherboard was in the works before AMD bought ATI. The R600 was supposed to be out last fall, then got delayed, and delayed again, and delayed even again. The promised new cpu's get delayed over and over. The company execs are selling out their own personal shares of AMD. No exec has bought any AMD stock this year, only sold.

Having mainly bought AMD processors and ATI video cards for the past few years, I'd like to see some new stuff come out, but for now, we get delays and excuses. There comes a point when even the faithful start opening their eyes and seeing reality. At least some do.

in other words... AMD is done ?
March 7, 2007 3:45:41 PM

sure great news, but this is still too far away.
March 7, 2007 3:46:10 PM

WOW...another amazing BS from the_INQ. :roll:
March 7, 2007 3:55:17 PM

Quote:
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=38063

For lazy ones :wink:
Mass production will begin in 2010

Quote:
This technology is likely to end up being used to manufacture AMD microprocessors.


If AMD could mass deliver 32 nm cpu's in 2010, that would be a great news.

1. AMD may be a totally different company by 2010.

2. The article is talking about making 32nm Masks, not working logic chips. Nobody even knows IF 32nm is possible for Mass production at this point. (well, that has been released)

3. IBM would have to be transferring a working process to an AMD that is already tooled for 32nm and ready to produce it by fall 2009 to Mass deliver chips in 2010. IBM would never do this, they would release it themselves.

4. Not sure if Barcelona will be out by 2010. LOL

5. The only way I could see this working is IF IBM aquired AMD.
March 7, 2007 4:07:40 PM

Quote:
Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:


Actually, speaking as a former stockholder of AMD, I think the bad news about AMD is founded. Ever since last fall, starting with the FX70-74 disaster, AMD hasn't come out with much of anything. Oh yes, a new motherboard and that's all well and good, but that motherboard was in the works before AMD bought ATI. The R600 was supposed to be out last fall, then got delayed, and delayed again, and delayed even again. The promised new cpu's get delayed over and over. The company execs are selling out their own personal shares of AMD. No exec has bought any AMD stock this year, only sold.

Having mainly bought AMD processors and ATI video cards for the past few years, I'd like to see some new stuff come out, but for now, we get delays and excuses. There comes a point when even the faithful start opening their eyes and seeing reality. At least some do.

in other words... AMD is done ?

In my opinion, for what its worth, the writing is on the wall for AMD. It might survive, but it will be a long time before anything good happens. I suppose it depends on how much they can stretch things and how many people they can get to buy stock. They are hoping to get shareholder approval at the next stockholder's meeting to issue and sell about 1.5 billion shares of new stock. I don't think they will get the permission, because that would dilute the value of the stock that is at large and I can't see any stockholder willingly cutting the value of his stock in half.

Again, in my opinion, the best hope for AMD is a buyout by IBM, or at least a large infussion of money from IBM in exchange for a lot of shares/options. That might happen, but I don't know if IBM wants to take on the debt and troubles that AMD has.

The best thing going for AMD is the OEM contracts that it has, such as with Dell. If it can provide enough low end chips to them and they keep buying, then they might survive, but they would be back to being a very second rate company again. If Dell, etc, back away from AMD, then I think AMD might well be done.

Personally, I hope that AMD does get out a cpu that will put it back on top again in the performance arena. Maybe their new cpu(s) will do that, but they have to get them on the market and not keep up the excuses and delays.
March 7, 2007 4:08:45 PM

Quote:
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=38063

For lazy ones :wink:
Mass production will begin in 2010

Quote:
This technology is likely to end up being used to manufacture AMD microprocessors.


If AMD could mass deliver 32 nm cpu's in 2010, that would be a great news.

1. AMD may be a totally different company by 2010.

2. The article is talking about making 32nm Masks, not working logic chips. Nobody even knows IF 32nm is possible for Mass production at this point. (well, that has been released)

3. IBM would have to be transferring a working process to an AMD that is already tooled for 32nm and ready to produce it by fall 2009 to Mass deliver chips in 2010. IBM would never do this, they would release it themselves.

4. Not sure if Barcelona will be out by 2010. LOL

5. The only way I could see this working is IF IBM aquired AMD. :idea: Definite possibility(AMD would be a nice new toy for IBM).
March 7, 2007 4:52:52 PM

All of this discussion over an article from The Inquirer?!? LOL. Going to that site is just a waste of bandwidth and talking about it is just a waste of key strokes if you ask me.
March 8, 2007 3:06:53 AM

Okay, i'm just being fairly objective here, the word struggling is as for now even synonymous with AMD concerning their market status.. That's why they're up to finding a better time for the introduction of the Barcelona's to the mass market consumers... It's true that there are no specific time and date given for their boldly stated proc's release, that's why its logical to think that if not sooner then it'll be later.. As of now, almost everyone knows if it was sooner or it was later... 8) 8)

And to note, benchmarks are not "always" reliable to base for a certain products mass market release, they could even be shifted as long as the company thinks it's appropriate..
March 8, 2007 3:22:55 AM

It's true that intel moved the release of penryn to a little later than what they said, but the main question here is, with their current C2D's reigning the proc's segment, Is it practical to boast off another replacement when time doesn't need it yet?

Speaking of time, most application even today are still single threaded and can't even be fully benefited by Quad's... Though multithreaded apps are going to replace the current gen of bi or mono threaded apps..

It's logical to think that of course after Barcelona's release, the Penryn's are gonna come out after it... Not a simple idea to think but it's a laymen's thought is only needed to sum it up this time..

As of now, we only have one option left for us to settle our current argument; it is to wait for Barcelona's release and see if it can deliver as what is expected out of it... :wink:
March 8, 2007 3:36:27 AM

Wow, with the tick tock model of Intel,

tock - Core 2 (65nm) - 2006
tick - Penryn (45nm) - 2007
tock - Nehalem (45nm) - 2008
tick - ...uh? (32nm) - 2009

AMD will only be a year behind...just like today. If AMD doesn't have 32nm by 2010, they'll be having problems. I could have made up this article... :-D

Of course, this is best case scenario. This article refers to masks being produced in 2010. Hopefully for AMD, this means January, so they can have actual product sometime in the summer.
March 8, 2007 4:22:43 AM

Quote:

tock - Core 2 (65nm) - 2006
tick - Penryn (45nm) - 2007
tock - Nehalem (45nm) - 2008
tick - ...uh? (32nm) - 2009


Intel 32nm code names:

"tick" = Westmere (I have seen the name Nehalem-C used as well)
"tock" = Gesher
March 8, 2007 5:04:39 AM

Quote:
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=38063

For lazy ones :wink:
Mass production will begin in 2010

Quote:
This technology is likely to end up being used to manufacture AMD microprocessors.


If AMD could mass deliver 32 nm cpu's in 2010, that would be a great news.

I am still waiting for IBM to deliver a working 65 nm product. AMD's 65 nm so far seems inferior to Intel's. AMD will be fabless post 45 nm node in my opinion :p 
March 8, 2007 5:40:24 AM

Quote:
Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:


When did I start hearing about Barcelona by AMD and how it would be a C2D killer...... Oh yeah, a long time ago. When did Intel start touting Penryn as being the end all CPU..... Oh yeah, just recently.

How long has Intel had 45nm processors released, but no Penryn?
How long has AMD had 65nm processors out but no Barcelona?

Me thinks Barcelona has issues.
Show me the link Barcelona has issues? From roadmaps its on track, not even delayed as Penryn. It could have problems we arent aware of, but if its released when told, I dont see from where "AMD is strugling to release Barcelona" is coming from.

BTW, new tech. process and new core designs arent the same thing, so 45nm-65nm point is OT here.
March 8, 2007 5:51:39 AM

2009 for Intel 32nm (Forecasted.)

Even if AMD manages it by 2010 they'll still be lagging behind Intel and by that time Intel will have it's Nehalem CPU (Successor to Conroe) out on the market.

The future doesn't look all that bright for AMD.

EDIT!

I just remebered that Intel plans to release another uArch in 2010! So that will be 32nm chip that's 2 generations better than Conroe.

AMD is definetly in trouble unless Barcelona turns out to be some miracle chip.
March 8, 2007 5:52:46 AM

Quote:
All of this discussion over an article from The Inquirer?!? LOL. Going to that site is just a waste of bandwidth and talking about it is just a waste of key strokes if you ask me.
Ditto
March 8, 2007 5:56:31 AM

Quote:

in other words... AMD is done ?

As Mark Twain said, "news about my death are exagerated" :wink:

There is no question AMD is having it rough atm, but it FAR from being "done" in any sense of this word. AMD had it much worse before K7 release by being constant underdog, now it has good cpu tech., good chipsets platforms (remember K5-6 days?), good graphic company, more fabs than 6 years ago, and just because its a year behind of Intel on highest performance cpus, it doesnt make AMD "done". Even if Barcelonas would suck bad, some heads would roll in AMD, shares would go even more down, but company wont go bancrupt simply because it still can offer mass cheap decent cpu's, as it was in pre-K7 days.
March 8, 2007 6:00:06 AM

Quote:
2009 for Intel 32nm (Forecasted.)

Even if AMD manages it by 2010 they'll still be lagging behind Intel and by that time Intel will have it's Nehalem CPU (Successor to Conroe) out on the market.

The future doesn't look all that bright for AMD.

Hmm, wasnt AMD always behind tech. process to Intel, so its different and big problem for AMD in the future... how?
March 8, 2007 1:40:48 PM

Quote:
2009 for Intel 32nm (Forecasted.)

Even if AMD manages it by 2010 they'll still be lagging behind Intel and by that time Intel will have it's Nehalem CPU (Successor to Conroe) out on the market.

The future doesn't look all that bright for AMD.

Hmm, wasnt AMD always behind tech. process to Intel, so its different and big problem for AMD in the future... how?

What's different now is that AMD's current products aren't beating Intel's offerings. Before, AMD didn't need to catch or even surpass Intel because they clearly had the better product. They knew it, and Intel pretty much ignored it. Now, Intel pulled their collective heads outta their butts and produced a better product. So, with new process tech and a better product, AMD cannot just rely on the "we have a better product" stance anymore.

That's the big problem. Unless AMD starts showing a more competitive product with Barcelona and Agena(?), it could fall even farther behind, which could result in lower profits (even losses), and less capital to continue to convert fabs to newer technologies.
March 8, 2007 1:48:03 PM

Quote:

Hmm, wasnt AMD always behind tech. process to Intel, so its different and big problem for AMD in the future... how?


What's different now is that AMD's current products aren't beating Intel's offerings. Before, AMD didn't need to catch or even surpass Intel because they clearly had the better product. They knew it, and Intel pretty much ignored it. Now, Intel pulled their collective heads outta their butts and produced a better product. So, with new process tech and a better product, AMD cannot just rely on the "we have a better product" stance anymore.

That's the big problem. Unless AMD starts showing a more competitive product with Barcelona and Agena(?), it could fall even farther behind, which could result in lower profits (even losses), and less capital to continue to convert fabs to newer technologies.
You think short term NMDante, "before" you mean K7-K8, I meant pre-K7 times as its clear from my post above, when AMD was underdog in any cpu tech. Now they in much better position than before, and even if K10 would stink, they wouldnt go bancrupt just because of it. To remain in game is enough to have high volume decent products, which AMD can offer in any case. Want to compare current AMD with one before K7? You will be surprised.
March 8, 2007 1:59:50 PM

Quote:
You think short term NMDante, "before" you mean K7-K8, I meant pre-K7 times as its clear from my post above, when AMD was underdog in any cpu tech. Now they in much better position than before, and even if K10 would stink, they wouldnt go bancrupt just because of it. To remain in game is enough to have high volume decent products, which AMD can offer in any case. Want to compare current AMD with one before K7? You will be surprised.


Short term? Maybe. But the past is just that...the past.

AMD stayed afloat in the pre-K7 days, cause they catered to the channel, and they still had a better product than Intel.

With the advances in technology and processes, AMD will need more capital to retool fabs/do conversions to keep pace, not only with Intel, but to help reduce the cost factor of processing. Let's say AMD stays with 65nm while Intel moves to 45nm. The cost reduction that the 45nm process brings could cripple income of AMD's 65nm, no matter how much they produce. Just cause they can make millions of products won't help, if those products don't sell. With AMD's current cash crunch, and the delay of product(s), it doesn't help.

You can always look at the past for support, but you are not taking into consideration that Intel isn't putting out a so-so product, like it was during those days. It's offering up a better product in desktops, and is gaining more grown in server space, at a lower cost. These aren't the days of Intel's Netburst vs. a more efficient AMD Athlon anymore. If K10 does not do well, AMD won't go bankrupt, but it will seriously be in trouble. To think otherwise would be naive.
March 8, 2007 2:20:39 PM

Quote:
You think short term NMDante, "before" you mean K7-K8, I meant pre-K7 times as its clear from my post above, when AMD was underdog in any cpu tech. Now they in much better position than before, and even if K10 would stink, they wouldnt go bancrupt just because of it. To remain in game is enough to have high volume decent products, which AMD can offer in any case. Want to compare current AMD with one before K7? You will be surprised.


Short term? Maybe. But the past is just that...the past.

AMD stayed afloat in the pre-K7 days, cause they catered to the channel, and they still had a better product than Intel.

With the advances in technology and processes, AMD will need more capital to retool fabs/do conversions to keep pace, not only with Intel, but to help reduce the cost factor of processing. Let's say AMD stays with 65nm while Intel moves to 45nm. The cost reduction that the 45nm process brings could cripple income of AMD's 65nm, no matter how much they produce. Just cause they can make millions of products won't help, if those products don't sell. With AMD's current cash crunch, and the delay of product(s), it doesn't help.

You can always look at the past for support, but you are not taking into consideration that Intel isn't putting out a so-so product, like it was during those days. It's offering up a better product in desktops, and is gaining more grown in server space, at a lower cost. These aren't the days of Intel's Netburst vs. a more efficient AMD Athlon anymore. If K10 does not do well, AMD won't go bankrupt, but it will seriously be in trouble. To think otherwise would be naive.
Again you havent carefuly read my post :wink: Intel first Pentium's were far more superior to AMD cpu's than C2D is to X2. Again, AMD is in much stronger position than it was back then. Server space? In this most lucrative space AMD was none , zero before K7. Now it has 26% of x86 server market. Granted, delayes arent good for any company, but Barcelona is on track and its presumed to be next AMD cash cow. If K10 will do well, Intel % of both server and desktop market will keep shrinking, if it wont be any good (even as Intel employee you know its hardly the case), AMD will % shrink a bit but it still will be afloat due to volume sells to OEMs, it wont be "done" as some doomsayers are saying.
March 8, 2007 2:23:16 PM

Quote:

in other words... AMD is done ?

As Mark Twain said, "news about my death are exagerated" :wink:

There is no question AMD is having it rough atm, but it FAR from being "done" in any sense of this word. AMD had it much worse before K7 release by being constant underdog, now it has good cpu tech., good chipsets platforms (remember K5-6 days?), good graphic company, more fabs than 6 years ago, and just because its a year behind of Intel on highest performance cpus, it doesnt make AMD "done". Even if Barcelonas would suck bad, some heads would roll in AMD, shares would go even more down, but company wont go bancrupt simply because it still can offer mass cheap decent cpu's, as it was in pre-K7 days.

While the news of AMD's death may be exaggerated, it isn't be much. During the days of K5-7 and before, AMD may not have been in the limelight, but it wasn't overstretched by debt. I think that if AMD was just a year behind Intel at the moment, without any other problems, I wouldn't question AMD's ability to survive as a second tier company. Its the outstanding debt and the difficulty paying that debt, much less borrowing money to finance new production that is killing them.

AMD might well survive but I think it will be set back very far in the performance arena. For sure, I think some company execs need to have their heads rolling. Some level of sanity and honesty needs to be put in charge. Trouble is, I suspect they have large golden parachutes so that even getting rid of them will be expensive, drawing on money that AMD doesn't have.
March 8, 2007 2:52:50 PM

Quote:
2009 for Intel 32nm (Forecasted.)

Even if AMD manages it by 2010 they'll still be lagging behind Intel and by that time Intel will have it's Nehalem CPU (Successor to Conroe) out on the market.

The future doesn't look all that bright for AMD.

Hmm, wasnt AMD always behind tech. process to Intel, so its different and big problem for AMD in the future... how?

2 new uArchs from Intel forecasted in the next 3 years and as far as i know there's no new uArchs for AMD schedueld within the next 4 or so years.
March 8, 2007 3:09:23 PM

I was just thinking... isn't it about time we had a new thread providing endless speculation about AMD's future so that we can all flame each other, call one another 'fanboi' until someone locks the thread? And then this thread crops up! What are the chances?
March 8, 2007 3:14:06 PM

Quote:

in other words... AMD is done ?

As Mark Twain said, "news about my death are exagerated" :wink:

There is no question AMD is having it rough atm, but it FAR from being "done" in any sense of this word. AMD had it much worse before K7 release by being constant underdog, now it has good cpu tech., good chipsets platforms (remember K5-6 days?), good graphic company, more fabs than 6 years ago, and just because its a year behind of Intel on highest performance cpus, it doesnt make AMD "done". Even if Barcelonas would suck bad, some heads would roll in AMD, shares would go even more down, but company wont go bancrupt simply because it still can offer mass cheap decent cpu's, as it was in pre-K7 days.

The exact quote (and please heed the spelling - two g's in exaggeration) was an instruction from Twain to a newspaper man come to report on his death: "Just tell them the reports of my demise were greatly exaggerated."
March 9, 2007 10:43:57 AM

Sailer, you picture very grim AMD situation, as if company have huge almost unpayable debs. Let the numbers talk:
in 2006 AMD with ATI had 7,3 bln sales.
Company have ~13 bln. assets.
At the 31 Dec 2006 it has 1,5 bln cash, ~4 bln. with other liquid assets.

Debt: 3,2 bln. AFTER ATI 5,4 bln buyout and 2,5 bln long term loan for fab build.

Is 3,2 bln a lot? No doubt, but its not operating loss, its a loan left after 8 bln investments in 2006 only. If company is expanding and thinking far in the future, investing in fab and one of the best graphics company which fits company plans IMO is good strategy. If stockholders will be impatient to wait a year or two for investments to shine, some heads will roll but next CEO will reap the benefits of current investments. In any case, AMD future isnt as bad as some try to picture it.
March 9, 2007 10:50:13 AM

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2 new uArchs from Intel forecasted in the next 3 years and as far as i know there's no new uArchs for AMD schedueld within the next 4 or so years.

You think AMD will release K10 and will stop any progress for next 4 years? Seriously? :p  If it doesnt post, it doesnt mean they dont have several teams working on new generation cpu's. IMO AMD is silent about new generations because they want all attention on Barcelonas and R600, which is primary goal atm.
March 9, 2007 11:26:11 AM

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Barcelonas are on track, as far as I know. In the same way you could tell "Intel is strugling to release Penryn". But for some reason we only hear negative interpretations about AMD, usualy unfounded :wink:


people tend to buy what INTEL is selling alot easier because INTEL has all the dollars.... AMD is smaller so people tend to think they cant get it done...or take a SHOW ME stance...
I think it's more coz AMD needs to catchup while Intel is leading. When AMD was ahead, everybody was waiting for the Intel response.
March 9, 2007 11:52:15 AM

With all the delays now I would say "2010" means "decade starting in 2010"
March 9, 2007 1:48:33 PM

The picture is indeed grim. As you point out, those figures are from December 06. Since then the picture has changed and their cash flow is down. The debts are not unpayable, but they are massive. Ther ability to borrow money has been all but wiped out.

A more telling thing, in my opinion, is that while company execs in years past bought stock in the company, no exec has bought any company stock since November 06. So far this year, the company execs have sold over 32,000 shares of their personal holdings, compared with an average purchase of 131,615 each year for the past five years. If the company execs do not have confidence in their company, why should anyone else have confidence in it?

To be sure, I would like AMD to survive. As I wrote before, I don't even question that ability, but its position as a leading company is doubtful.
March 9, 2007 1:54:55 PM

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The picture is indeed grim. As you point out, those figures are from December 06. Since then the picture has changed and their cash flow is down. The debts are not unpayable, but they are massive. Ther ability to borrow money has been all but wiped out.

A more telling thing, in my opinion, is that while company execs in years past bought stock in the company, no exec has bought any company stock since November 06. So far this year, the company execs have sold over 32,000 shares of their personal holdings, compared with an average purchase of 131,615 each year for the past five years. If the company execs do not have confidence in their company, why should anyone else have confidence in it?

To be sure, I would like AMD to survive. As I wrote before, I don't even question that ability, but its position as a leading company is doubtful.

I dont see situation as bad as you basing on numbers. 1st quater and probably second may be worse simply because Barc. isnt here yet, but R600 massive (hopefuly) release in summer should help a bit till autumn.

About execs - it may be simple calculations. They know stock will go down till certain point and they sold some shares. Now imagine if they do big bouyout when shares will be at the very bottom (we arent there yet), and get nice profit after Barc. is released in bigger quantities and shares goes up? Just some food for thoughts.
March 9, 2007 2:09:46 PM

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About execs - it may be simple calculations. They know stock will go down till certain point and they sold some shares. Now imagine if they do big boyout when shares will be at the very bottom (we arent there yet), and get nice profit after Barc. is released in bigger quantities and shares goes up? Just some food for thoughts.


What you propose may be fact, but if it is, the execs come close to market manipulation and that is illegal use of insider information. At the same time, if that is their thoughts, I'd sure like to know where they expect the market to bottom.

In the meantime, the R600 needs to be released and Barcelona cannot be delayed further. Last I read, though they increased their penetration in cpu sales last year, they have dropped in percentage this year. OK I'm a bit on the cynical side and I admit it, but I've mainly bought AMD chips for the past seven years and watched them increase in performance and sales. I don't like the company's present attitudes and I don't like watching it sink. I also didn't like watching my stocks in their company continually loose money until I finally sold for a substantial loss. Also, like many people, I'm affected by the constant pattern of announcing a release date of a product and then delaying it, over and over again.
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