Sign in with
Sign up | Sign in
Your question

AMD on 32nm - Page 2

Tags:
Last response: in CPUs
Share
March 9, 2007 2:12:38 PM

Quote:
The picture is indeed grim. As you point out, those figures are from December 06. Since then the picture has changed and their cash flow is down. The debts are not unpayable, but they are massive. Ther ability to borrow money has been all but wiped out.

A more telling thing, in my opinion, is that while company execs in years past bought stock in the company, no exec has bought any company stock since November 06. So far this year, the company execs have sold over 32,000 shares of their personal holdings, compared with an average purchase of 131,615 each year for the past five years. If the company execs do not have confidence in their company, why should anyone else have confidence in it?

To be sure, I would like AMD to survive. As I wrote before, I don't even question that ability, but its position as a leading company is doubtful.


To stay out of hot water with the SEC, it's typical for execs not to trade during December and at least half of January (so it doesn't look like insider trading). However, Februrary was fair game for stock purchase. February was also the bleakest time in AMD projections (at least now in March we have a little potential at Barcelona making it). They won't trade in March or half of April either for the same reasons - quarterly earnings.

What's interesting is the huge amount of sales/option exercises right before March starts. This could either be because March is a quiet time for them, or because they knew the stock dilution was coming (the latter being illegal).

Ahhh, too much speculation. Maybe they're just busy making the next big thing and don't care about stock! Or playing golf.
March 9, 2007 2:40:16 PM

Quote:

Ahhh, too much speculation. Maybe they're just busy making the next big thing and don't care about stock! Or playing golf.


To be sure, you are correct about too much speculation. To an extent, I think they'd be better off playing a bit of golf, or maybe I would. No wait, I don't like golf. I need some time out on a boat, sailing.
March 16, 2007 9:12:19 AM

Quote:

What you propose may be fact, but if it is, the execs come close to market manipulation and that is illegal use of insider information. At the same time, if that is their thoughts, I'd sure like to know where they expect the market to bottom.

In the meantime, the R600 needs to be released and Barcelona cannot be delayed further. Last I read, though they increased their penetration in cpu sales last year, they have dropped in percentage this year. OK I'm a bit on the cynical side and I admit it, but I've mainly bought AMD chips for the past seven years and watched them increase in performance and sales. I don't like the company's present attitudes and I don't like watching it sink. I also didn't like watching my stocks in their company continually loose money until I finally sold for a substantial loss. Also, like many people, I'm affected by the constant pattern of announcing a release date of a product and then delaying it, over and over again.

Yes, it may be manipulations based on inside info, but its huge profit and hard to prove and we can see it happen now and then. Easier to prove manipulation with shares and back dates (recent issue with Apple).

In 2005 AMD had sales of 3,9 bln, Intel 35 bln. In 2006 AMD jumped almost 100% to 7,5 bln and Intel decreased to 31 bln. Even with pretty bad this years two quaters, they have two major products in the pocket and second half of the year looks better. Thats why I'm not worried about AMD much, they performed extremely weel last 6 years and as every company AMD have ups and downs. Intel is on the wave atm after being underdog for some years and kudos to them for superb C2D line-up.
Related resources
March 16, 2007 10:36:45 AM

Yesterday I heard George Sorros (move on org) just bought 68 million dollars of Halliburton stock. Now anyone whos heard of Haliburton knows that they are waaay into the oil industry and has taken HUGE shots from Democrats. Mr Sorros is one of the largest contributers to the Democrat party, HATES big oil, so I ask myself, whyd he do it? He wants to make MONEY. If you see your stock in a temporary downfall, you see your field of business i n a temporary lull (acknowledged by Mr O from Intel himself) then why wouldnt you as a higher up in your company do the same. PUT IT WHERE ITLL MAKE MORE MONEY. OK they ARENT buying Intel stock OK heheh
March 16, 2007 11:31:44 AM

What I find interesting about this whole AMD/ATI takeover thing is that ATI was run by engineers. From all that I have read, during the X1K series launch, ATI's R&D department had their hands tied up with the Xenos Chip fro the Xbox 360. So when 3 months turned into 6 months, then people knew there was a problem. I figured that a lot of these management problems would go away with the takeover by AMD. It took ATI over 6 months to launch the X1k series and look at them now. AMD/AtI is still getting hammered in trying to release the R600. Looks like I was wrong about AMD having better management with ATI's hard launching of the R600 and Barcelona.
March 16, 2007 11:46:21 AM

IMO its early to judge how AMD will handle graphic cards cycle refreshes, since they had no influence in the R600 building, except for last silicon revisions and launch itself. A lot of changes were done and R700+ will show if AMD fails or succeeds at ATI management.
March 16, 2007 1:18:32 PM

Quote:
What I find interesting about this whole AMD/ATI takeover thing is that ATI was run by engineers. From all that I have read, during the X1K series launch, ATI's R&D department had their hands tied up with the Xenos Chip fro the Xbox 360. So when 3 months turned into 6 months, then people knew there was a problem. I figured that a lot of these management problems would go away with the takeover by AMD. It took ATI over 6 months to launch the X1k series and look at them now. AMD/AtI is still getting hammered in trying to release the R600. Looks like I was wrong about AMD having better management with ATI's hard launching of the R600 and Barcelona.


you know these commenst are real stupid. You think its that easy to merge 2 large companies this quickly and have them kick out major product launches on both sides of the business smooth as butter huh?

amazing
March 16, 2007 2:40:20 PM

Quote:
What I find interesting about this whole AMD/ATI takeover thing is that ATI was run by engineers. From all that I have read, during the X1K series launch, ATI's R&D department had their hands tied up with the Xenos Chip fro the Xbox 360. So when 3 months turned into 6 months, then people knew there was a problem. I figured that a lot of these management problems would go away with the takeover by AMD. It took ATI over 6 months to launch the X1k series and look at them now. AMD/AtI is still getting hammered in trying to release the R600. Looks like I was wrong about AMD having better management with ATI's hard launching of the R600 and Barcelona.


you know these commenst are real stupid. You think its that easy to merge 2 large companies this quickly and have them kick out major product launches on both sides of the business smooth as butter huh?

amazing

Actually, I'd compare the merger and product launches more to extra chunky peanut butter.
March 16, 2007 4:00:23 PM

Quote:
What I find interesting about this whole AMD/ATI takeover thing is that ATI was run by engineers. From all that I have read, during the X1K series launch, ATI's R&D department had their hands tied up with the Xenos Chip fro the Xbox 360. So when 3 months turned into 6 months, then people knew there was a problem. I figured that a lot of these management problems would go away with the takeover by AMD. It took ATI over 6 months to launch the X1k series and look at them now. AMD/AtI is still getting hammered in trying to release the R600. Looks like I was wrong about AMD having better management with ATI's hard launching of the R600 and Barcelona.


I have been involved as a middle manager in two large corporate merges. From my experience, the single largest risk to failure is new management trying to rapidly implement change befor taking the time to understand the organizations that they are merging. For large organizations, that level of detailed knowledge takes 6-9 months to gain in the best case. The planning of changes should be based on the gathered knowledge. Meaningful change should not be apparent to outsiders for at least a year. I believe that your expectations of change within AMD/ATI are overly aggressive with respect to timing.
March 16, 2007 8:56:29 PM

Understood Lbax. I wasn't making the comment, I read it upon several articles that AMD's management was a good thing and that it would possibly push hard launch products out the door even quicker. I am not expecting them to pull the Barcelona and the R600 out their wazoo just like that. I really am rooting for AMD and hope these guy's can overtake Intel in the top spot and take back the crown for performance and products. But given that they might have more trouble with a transition from 90nm to 65nm and even considering that they don't have as many resources as say Intel, I don't really see, in my opinion how they could try to transition from 65 to 45 and then all the way to 32.

This might be the venture they want to take in terms of getting back on top, but I really hope it pays out for them in the end. 45nm is new territory for even Intel, but 32nm is even more uncharted waters for the guys in green. Really hope it works out for them and I apologize if I was sounding like some arrogant idiot.
March 16, 2007 9:03:34 PM

What’s all this AMD is doomed stuff? It not as if Intel has it all its way – how much money did Intel burn on Itanium 64? That product is all about minimising losses now – AMD showed the way with a bolt on backward-compatible hybrid 64/32bit architecture – Intel followed with its tail between its legs.

Markets have momentum, there are plenty of non/armchair-enthusiasts walking about thinking AMD is the superior CPU because it was better for a few years, plus complete system cost (for vendors) is still lower for AMD based system. Walk through any high-street and you’ll see no shortage of AMD-based systems. Okay AMD are not making the same margin per product as Intel, but AMD are doing okay because vendors care about their margins – AMD systems are cheap to build. Business users do not jump ship easily, the ones that are AMD based now will not dump them because Intel have brought out a better CPU in the short-term, AMD’s memory architecture is still better and it scales better, Barcelona will be out in good time to keep the people who bought AMD servers last year.

Being well-informed people, we all know what a cracking product C2D is – you’ll be surprised how many people don’t. Losing and gaining market share is a surprisingly slow phenomenon in the IT sector - especially if you’ve already got a reasonable footprint there already; AMD had the better server CPU for over a year before “the market” noticed and started buying it in droves – it will take just as long for them to realise that Intel is better again – by that time Barcelona will be out – and the salesman will be saying “what disadvantage?” CPUs are rarely flat out in clusters of servers these days anyway, server virtualisation and data-in-memory are the new kids on the block – those technologies require good memory bandwidth – watch this space…
March 16, 2007 9:07:04 PM

Arent the amd 65nm perform less then the 90nm ? 45nm or 32nm, not much difference really, unless you care about your power consumation, wich i dont care here in quebec and if you are a master overclocker but again, we need more software, game to be able to exploit all that "today power" Most software are still unable to use dual core / quad core and are 32bit. I think we need more progress on the software part. Its cool to have the fastest car on earth but if you live in a country with the limit speed is limited, then why buy it when you can only use it on a circuit at full speed.
March 16, 2007 9:43:34 PM

Quote:
NMDante, AMD isnt talking about 32nm as of yet (that I know of), its IBM plans and IMO AMD could jump on this train. 3-4 years is enough time frame for it, again IMO.

As you work for Intel, share some news when Intel is planning to switch to 32 nm (skipping possible PR :wink:) 


I personally wouldn't know when Intel is planning to go to 32nm. That's not what I do at work. I am just a grunt in the fab, not one of the decision makers. Sorry. I am guessing, 32nm transition is still on a roadmap somewhere.

As for AMD not talking about 32nm. Yes, I know the article is about IBM. But the OP titled it "AMD on 32nm", so I am sticking with that, along with the last sentence in the Inq. article, which is quoted in OP's first post.

3-4 years is viable for a transition, but it won't be cheap, and without really stablizing 45nm, it could be a diaster. Again, that's my opinion. If IBM has a stable 32nm process, and retooling is not a major cost factor, then AMD can, in theory, almost skip 45nm and go to 32nm. Again, that's just a theory.
Why do ALL companies never skip a manufacture process? Skipping sometimes makes sense and it seems skipping is very possible.
This is different than ATI skipping from DX9 to DX11, because DX11 isn't even defined.
I ask because I heard of 22 nm and even X-Rays done in labs years ago.
      • 1
      • 2 / 2
!