Make do with Dresden

[Periander]

I could not agree with the author of this article more.

http://www.overclockers.com/tips01125/

Either AMD could have focused on CPUs and built the New York fab and gone toe to toe with Intel on pricing with the view of getting to the 30% mark, or it could have bought ATI and put its focus on Fusion and GPUs, or if it was going to do both it needed fix it's balance sheet and replace the 5 billion it shelled out for ATI pronto.

Instead Hector tried to have his cake and eat it too, now hes faced with pulling a quick about face in terms of strategy or going to a now very hostile capital market hat in hand. The results are likely to be ugly, particularly after AMD's next earnings announcement.

 

[BaronMatrix]

StrollinHo is a jerk. He always has the bleakest outlook for AMD no matter what.

In my mind the only "mistake" Hector made was this price war. X2 should not be at $99. Buying ATi was actually a good move as they at least have a somewhat greater "income" and the ability to get into diverse new markets. It is said that mobile will eventually overtake desktop and numbers and already has in growth so Fusion will definitely garner wins this year.

AMD may post a loss this Q1 but by theend of Q2 it will pick p nicely as K10 shoul dbe totally "exposed" which shoul dgive them a boost as they will no longer be behind Intel.

I can agree though that the whole problem is Intel's continuing behavior which keeps AMD makng a lt less even though they have been - and still are in my opinion - in the technical lead with a mmuch better platform and much better plans for "chipset/socket compatibility."

 

[T800-101]

I don't think AMD had any choice but to purchase ATI. In order for AMD to grow, they needed to be a major player in the integrated GPU market at the very least. Being able to offer an all-in-one solutions to OEM's is huge, and has been Intel's bread and butter.

Not to mention it also gives AMD an in into new markets including ultra slim mobile, set top, home theater etc. The purchase price AMD payed for ATI was a bargain IMO when you consider the technology that ATI brings to the table. The only question left is how well AMD/ATI execute. The decision Hector made was sound and vital IMO.

BTW Ed is an idiot that takes every opportunity to take a swipe at AMD.

 

[corvetteguy]

I dunno. I actually think AMD should have made the move on ATI like last year before they announced AM2. They had money, and intel was suckin, so that would have been a good time. I think its good they got ATI though, and would not have worlked out if they had done it later.

And yes, it IS INTEL's fault partially, because of the price war.

 

[dragonsprayer]

I think most true AMD supporters will appreciate although I am a micro consumer of resale cpu's, i am usually a perceptive buyer. what does that mean?

For some reason I am usually in tune with a trend before i even know its a trend, as a true intel fan boy why have I been buying more and more amd processors as the prices fall?


For some reason amd chips seem so cheap i am compelled to use them - a 4200+ for $110 or e4300 - i choose the 4200 this week.

2nd - once the r600 comes out i think alot of ati users will come to amd's rescue. iI just sold my personal pair of x1950's on ebay yesterday, in anticipation of the r600. I have no idea why (well i do it was 20 cents listing day)- i do trade up my cards every few months - subconsciously i am concluding the r600 is coming out to rule.




Conclusion its going to be good news for amd soon!

 

[Periander]

I don't think AMD had any choice but to purchase ATI. In order for AMD to grow, they needed to be a major player in the integrated GPU market at the very least. Being able to offer an all-in-one solutions to OEM's is huge, and has been Intel's bread and butter.

Not to mention it also gives AMD an in into new markets including ultra slim mobile, set top, home theater etc. The purchase price AMD payed for ATI was a bargain IMO when you consider the technology that ATI brings to the table.

If integrated solutions were/are so important to their futures, then the transaction could have been done as a stock-swap merger, or AMD could have purchased ATI with stock instead of cash, or Hector could have gone and raised cash immediatly after (if not before) the transaction.

Hector did none of these things, and the facts are there for all to see. Facts in terms of stock price, facts in terms of the ugly balance sheet, facts in terms of AMD is losing money instead of making it, facts in terms of there not being enough cash to fund their announced cap ex plans, facts in terms of Hector is going to have make some very unhappy decisions soon to address some of these things, and screaming "fanboi" at the messenger is not going to address any of these facts. The longer the reckoning is delayed, the longer AMD puts its fingers in its ears and yells lalalala, the harder it will be for AMD to ever recover, and that is not good for anyone particularly AMD.

 

[xpresso]

I could not agree with the author of this article more.

http://www.overclockers.com/tips01125/

Either AMD could have focused on CPUs and built the New York fab and gone toe to toe with Intel on pricing with the view of getting to the 30% mark, or it could have bought ATI and put its focus on Fusion and GPUs, or if it was going to do both it needed fix it's balance sheet and replace the 5 billion it shelled out for ATI pronto.

Instead Hector tried to have his cake and eat it too, now hes faced with pulling a quick about face in terms of strategy or going to a now very hostile capital market hat in hand. The results are likely to be ugly, particularly after AMD's next earnings announcement.

AMD's problem is not Intel nor lack of money, AMD's problems stem from poor business decisions and inferior process technology. AMD has alwasys had to buy process technology from IBM to cmpete below 0.13 um nodes. I said it 6 months ago that the NY fab will not happen for now and that AMD will not record a profit for the next 3 years, that means end of 2009. AMD has been known to make very stupid decisions, Jerry Sanders is an idiot, Hector actually was the one to put AMD on the right track, I am afraid though he has now been assimilated by Jerry's culture. On the other hand, the only idiot Intel had was Craig Barrett and he is no longer at the helm. I expect AMD to rely more and more on foundries to make their silicon. If Barcelona flops, AMD will certainly go fabless and develop their process with IBM to farm out to the foundries.

 

[LordPope]

I don't think AMD had any choice but to purchase ATI. In order for AMD to grow, they needed to be a major player in the integrated GPU market at the very least. Being able to offer an all-in-one solutions to OEM's is huge, and has been Intel's bread and butter.

Not to mention it also gives AMD an in into new markets including ultra slim mobile, set top, home theater etc. The purchase price AMD payed for ATI was a bargain IMO when you consider the technology that ATI brings to the table.

If integrated solutions were/are so important to their futures, then the transaction could have been done as a stock-swap merger, or AMD could have purchased ATI with stock instead of cash, or Hector could have gone and raised cash immediatly after (if not before) the transaction.

Hector did none of these things, and the facts are there for all to see. Facts in terms of stock price, facts in terms of the ugly balance sheet, facts in terms of AMD is losing money instead of making it, facts in terms of there not being enough cash to fund their announced cap ex plans, facts in terms of Hector is going to have make some very unhappy decisions soon to address some of these things, and screaming "fanboi" at the messenger is not going to address any of these facts. The longer the reckoning is delayed, the longer AMD puts its fingers in its ears and yells lalalala, the harder it will be for AMD to ever recover, and that is not good for anyone particularly AMD.

u come across like an intelliot

 

[tekzor]

all I know is that when I purchase my next laptop or desktop(far future) it will have AMD/ATI integrated gpu in it.

 

[BaronMatrix]

I don't think AMD had any choice but to purchase ATI. In order for AMD to grow, they needed to be a major player in the integrated GPU market at the very least. Being able to offer an all-in-one solutions to OEM's is huge, and has been Intel's bread and butter.

Not to mention it also gives AMD an in into new markets including ultra slim mobile, set top, home theater etc. The purchase price AMD payed for ATI was a bargain IMO when you consider the technology that ATI brings to the table.

If integrated solutions were/are so important to their futures, then the transaction could have been done as a stock-swap merger, or AMD could have purchased ATI with stock instead of cash, or Hector could have gone and raised cash immediatly after (if not before) the transaction.

Hector did none of these things, and the facts are there for all to see. Facts in terms of stock price, facts in terms of the ugly balance sheet, facts in terms of AMD is losing money instead of making it, facts in terms of there not being enough cash to fund their announced cap ex plans, facts in terms of Hector is going to have make some very unhappy decisions soon to address some of these things, and screaming "fanboi" at the messenger is not going to address any of these facts. The longer the reckoning is delayed, the longer AMD puts its fingers in its ears and yells lalalala, the harder it will be for AMD to ever recover, and that is not good for anyone particularly AMD.

But that's what the deal was. $2.5B in stock and $2.5B in cash. The stock is doing bad because of the doom and gloom analysts who wuldn't know a good thing if it slapped them in the head... with a shovel.

AMD lost money for years in the 90s and early 00s. They finally got profitable after Opteron and I hope that they do the right thing with K10 prices.
RUiz said hat Barcelna will be intro'd at the original Dual Core Opten prices. I hope the same goes for Agena and that Kuma slots between X2 and Agena price wise, it definitely will per wise.
The real challenge is to make more Turions and get a new mobile chip out so they can charge a premium (if t's K10) to buoy the desktop prices.

 

[dasickninja]

AMD's in a pinch. Now does anyone have a clear solution to get them out of it besides being bought out?

 

[corvetteguy]

AMD's in a pinch. Now does anyone have a clear solution to get them out of it besides being bought out?

Just get everyone to go buy AMD processers and stock, they will gain their money back if EVERYONE does it 8)

 

[Periander]

u come across like an intelliot

Is there something you are disuputing, or are you just engaged in name calling? I'll be happy to debate financials. If you want to engage namecalling contest you'll have to play alone.

 

[BaronMatrix]

AMD's in a pinch. Now does anyone have a clear solution to get them out of it besides being bought out?

Time, time, time.

 

[turpit]

But that's what the deal was. $2.5B in stock and $2.5B in cash. The stock is doing bad because of the doom and gloom analysts who wuldn't know a good thing if it slapped them in the head... with a shovel.

Readers should note that once again The Baron casts blame not at the source of the problem, but rather at anyplace else that he can. In this case the problem (falling stock prices) is not AMDs fault for being caught with its pants down, failing to supply the channel (due to binning/manufacturing problems or mobile targeting) or releasing an underperforming overpriced, environmentally hostile product, but rather, some one elses, specifically stock analysts. :roll:

 

[turpit]

But that's what the deal was. $2.5B in stock and $2.5B in cash. The stock is doing bad because of the doom and gloom analysts who wuldn't know a good thing if it slapped them in the head... with a shovel.

Readers should note that once again The Baron casts blame not at the source of the problem, but rather at anyplace else that he can. In this case the problem (falling stock prices) is not AMDs fault for being caught with its pants down, failing to supply the channel (due to binning/manufacturing problems or mobile targeting) or releasing an underperforming overpriced, environmentally hostile product, but rather, some one elses, specifically stock analysts. :roll:

You noticed that too..... we should bookmark this post, and remember it for future reference.

Jack

Already done
Its in my 'links of Baron errors' list. I started it while looking for his 'paper launch' comments. Still looking for that. I know its in there. He made direct and indirect insinuations, but I want the actual words. Interestingly, I found lots of quotes from other folks in response to him calling the launch paper, but I havent found the words yet. I will...they are there some where.

 

[Grimmy]

But that's what the deal was. $2.5B in stock and $2.5B in cash. The stock is doing bad because of the doom and gloom analysts who wuldn't know a good thing if it slapped them in the head... with a shovel.

Readers should note that once again The Baron casts blame not at the source of the problem, but rather at anyplace else that he can. In this case the problem (falling stock prices) is not AMDs fault for being caught with its pants down, failing to supply the channel (due to binning/manufacturing problems or mobile targeting) or releasing an underperforming overpriced, environmentally hostile product, but rather, some one elses, specifically stock analysts. :roll:

You noticed that too..... we should bookmark this post, and remember it for future reference.

Jack

Already done
Its in my 'links of Baron errors' list. I started it while looking for his 'paper launch' comments. Still looking for that. I know its in there. He made direct and indirect insinuations, but I want the actual words. Interestingly, I found lots of quotes from other folks in response to him calling the launch paper, but I havent found the words yet. I will...they are there some where.

8O . o O (gawd, I'd hate to see the bookmark list, it must run off the screen)

 

[turpit]

AMD may post a loss this Q1 but by theend of Q2 it will pick p nicely as K10 shoul dbe totally "exposed" which shoul dgive them a boost as they will no longer be behind Intel.

Are you suggesting that Q2 will be profitable for AMD? How about Q3?

I can agree though that the whole problem is Intel's continuing behavior which keeps AMD makng a lt less even though they have been - and still are in my opinion - in the technical lead with a mmuch better platform and much better plans for "chipset/socket compatibility."

But he did not say the whole problem was with Intel (and he did not mean Intel was being mean, just pricing for market share). He also said AMD was dropping the ball.... which is true, should we go through a list?

Finally, I am happy you said in your opinion, could you elaborate what formulated your opinion that their technical lead with a much better platform? What exactly about the platform is allowing them to hold a performance advantage? Hmmmmm, last I checked the last time they were in the performance lead was July 13th, 2006.

Oh yeah, the private equity rumors are getting stronger:
Jim Cramer (the funny mad man) has said he hear rumors of it, WSJ financial bloggers are also talking about it.... Hector may be gone before the end of the summer. Wouldn't that suck.... right at the time Barcelona launches, the company is in upheaval.


Jack


Perhaps he should write a letter to Intel

'Dear Intel,

Please stop being mean. Please raise your prices so AMD can raise its prices. Please dont release anymore products for a few years so AMD can catch up and exceed you in performance. Please direct your consumers to buy AMD products so they can claim 50% of the overall market (DT/Server/Mobile).

In short, please stop being a commercial enterprice and put the good of AMDs stockholders above the good of yours, because caring about your stockholders makes you really mean.

Thanks'


Much as I like my AMDs, and as much as I dread the thought of Intel with out the competition AMD has provided, I cant help but feeling that any problems AMD is suffering are by their own hand. Some people chose to start a business. They knew what they were getting itno: A commercial environment - competition. If they cant keep up, its their fault, no one elses. AMDs made a lot of blunders this past year and they are suffering for it.

 

[ejay]

AMD's in a pinch. Now does anyone have a clear solution to get them out of it besides being bought out?

Time, time, time.

is running out, out, out.

Like a duck on a Junebug!

 

[BaronMatrix]

But that's what the deal was. $2.5B in stock and $2.5B in cash. The stock is doing bad because of the doom and gloom analysts who wuldn't know a good thing if it slapped them in the head... with a shovel.

Readers should note that once again The Baron casts blame not at the source of the problem, but rather at anyplace else that he can. In this case the problem (falling stock prices) is not AMDs fault for being caught with its pants down, failing to supply the channel (due to binning/manufacturing problems or mobile targeting) or releasing an underperforming overpriced, environmentally hostile product, but rather, some one elses, specifically stock analysts. :roll:

You mean like NetBurst, the huge chipset shortage and the Via debacle? I'm not placing blame on them. When an analyst says something bad it's OK if it's AMD.

Companies don't get caught with their pants down (you can't just pop a new arch out of your a s s - though some of you pop even more "creative" things out of yours).

Yes, they underestimated growth of mobile but if no one could get any why are we now saying there's excess inventory? Companies that were seling 10s and 100s of thousands of AMD cips have an infrastructure that demands they keep it up so its not like all of a sudden ASUS will start puttng it's mobos in white unmarked boxes again.

Stop saying underperforming. It sounds stupid when there are plenty of Intel dual systems pumping like that (can you say Tulsa?).
And QFX DOESN'T underperform what it's replacing in the environments it was designed for.

Doom and gloom. Doom and gloom.

 

[BaldEagle]

I think AMD has bottomed,the stock will slowly catch up to where the lack of corporate heads has brought it.

This is the last of the darkness for amd.Still looking for 11 and we may see it with vista not holding amd up much we could see the 9 i was shooting off about,but I dont think we will.

Amd came clean and admitted err;I believe it was sincere.I also believe Intel is incapable of bieng that noble.

my vote is on AMD still but they sure havent made it easy.I hope the overprice the first few k10's a bit.

Were at the last little bit of yuckiness here.It would do many well to see that.

Vern, How can you say we've hit bottom when the bloodiest is yet to come for AMD. The additional price drop for Q2 is going to crank up the red ink and burn through the remaining cash at even higher rates. If the cash situation isn't resolved by the end of the month the stock will drop severely after the quarterly report and if not resolved before they run out of cash AMD could quite literally implode overnight. Dilution will only work if there is a market for the stock and continued poor financials without proof that Barcelona is the real deal isn't going to impress anyone.

 

[zornundo]

I think AMD has bottomed,the stock will slowly catch up to where the lack of corporate heads has brought it.

While you think it's bottomed, you're still gonna short it, eh :?: :roll:


Somebody mentioned AMD going fabless. Not a bad idea. If Intel were smart, they would contract their fabs to produce AMD's stuff. :twisted:

 

[zornundo]

Oh yeah, the private equity rumors are getting stronger: Jim Cramer (the funny mad man) has said he hear rumors of it, WSJ financial bloggers are also talking about it.... Hector may be gone before the end of the summer. Wouldn't that suck.... right at the time Barcelona launches, the company is in upheaval.

Cramer's just trying to help out his own stock position.

 

[BaronMatrix]

AMD may post a loss this Q1 but by theend of Q2 it will pick p nicely as K10 shoul dbe totally "exposed" which shoul dgive them a boost as they will no longer be behind Intel.

Are you suggesting that Q2 will be profitable for AMD? How about Q3?

I can agree though that the whole problem is Intel's continuing behavior which keeps AMD makng a lt less even though they have been - and still are in my opinion - in the technical lead with a mmuch better platform and much better plans for "chipset/socket compatibility."

But he did not say the whole problem was with Intel (and he did not mean Intel was being mean, just pricing for market share). He also said AMD was dropping the ball.... which is true, should we go through a list?

Finally, I am happy you said in your opinion, could you elaborate what formulated your opinion that their technical lead with a much better platform? What exactly about the platform is allowing them to hold a performance advantage? Hmmmmm, last I checked the last time they were in the performance lead was July 13th, 2006.

Oh yeah, the private equity rumors are getting stronger:
Jim Cramer (the funny mad man) has said he hear rumors of it, WSJ financial bloggers are also talking about it.... Hector may be gone before the end of the summer. Wouldn't that suck.... right at the time Barcelona launches, the company is in upheaval.


Jack


Perhaps he should write a letter to Intel

'Dear Intel,

Please stop being mean. Please raise your prices so AMD can raise its prices. Please dont release anymore products for a few years so AMD can catch up and exceed you in performance. Please direct your consumers to buy AMD products so they can claim 50% of the overall market (DT/Server/Mobile).

In short, please stop being a commercial enterprice and put the good of AMDs stockholders above the good of yours, because caring about your stockholders makes you really mean.

Thanks'


Much as I like my AMDs, and as much as I dread the thought of Intel with out the competition AMD has provided, I cant help but feeling that any problems AMD is suffering are by their own hand. Some people chose to start a business. They knew what they were getting itno: A commercial environment - competition. If they cant keep up, its their fault, no one elses. AMDs made a lot of blunders this past year and they are suffering for it.

You should go and be a spin doctor. I say nothing of the kind. AMD made no "blunders." Intel is just a 10x larger company with no IMC and the inability to make a good inter-connect.
If their profits were more evenly matched no one would say anything. AMD made the choice to drop prices to crazy levels but right now Dell is shipping to China in volume so at least marketshare shouldn't change much.

Whether or not someone buys them out is irrelevant to its existence. Hector doesn't own AMD, the stockholders - of whom he is one - do. I think he and Dirk have done a great job pulling AMD to respectability and shouldn't be blamed for having to HAVE TO BE in a tooth and nail fight with a bully.

Depending on how things go in the channel, they may be in the black by th end of Q2. You have to remeber tha teir cost structur is adjusting greatly as Fab 30 goes to 300mm and Chartered goes to 65nm.

The additional volume will save them at least 20%. And with R600 going 65nm that is an additional cost savings and should provide a boost because of Torrenza and DX10 games which should trickle out as R600 ramps.

If the shrink atually got to 50% that means around a 30% cost savngs and twice as many chips.

It's always darkest before the dawn.

 

[BaronMatrix]

I think AMD has bottomed,the stock will slowly catch up to where the lack of corporate heads has brought it.

This is the last of the darkness for amd.Still looking for 11 and we may see it with vista not holding amd up much we could see the 9 i was shooting off about,but I dont think we will.

Amd came clean and admitted err;I believe it was sincere.I also believe Intel is incapable of bieng that noble.

my vote is on AMD still but they sure havent made it easy.I hope the overprice the first few k10's a bit.

Were at the last little bit of yuckiness here.It would do many well to see that.

Vern, How can you say we've hit bottom when the bloodiest is yet to come for AMD. The additional price drop for Q2 is going to crank up the red ink and burn through the remaining cash at even higher rates. If the cash situation isn't resolved by the end of the month the stock will drop severely after the quarterly report and if not resolved before they run out of cash AMD could quite literally implode overnight. Dilution will only work if there is a market for the stock and continued poor financials without proof that Barcelona is the real deal isn't going to impress anyone.


5% of a 140Million CPU industry is a lot. Of course, it is nearly impossible to gain that much share in 1 or 2 Qs but you get the point.