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AMD still confident , though set to miss Q1 numbers

Last response: in CPUs
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March 27, 2007 1:48:12 PM

The Ultimate Rag is reporting that AMD is set o miss their ~$1.1B in revenue for Q1. It is unknown how much impact graphics and chipsets, etc. will contribute but the company is said to be "cash-happy" for the two quarters before Barcelona.

Linkage!

Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.
:oops: 
March 27, 2007 2:37:10 PM

Quote:


Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.
:oops: 


With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.
March 27, 2007 2:47:25 PM

I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.
Related resources
March 27, 2007 2:53:50 PM

Quote:


Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.
:oops: 


With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.

Based on the volume of AMD traded in the last week there aren't a lot of those balls of steel investors around either. We should see a couple of dollars shaved off the stock price after they release the quarterly results and everyone finds out how bad the revenue "miss" translates to capital losses.
March 27, 2007 3:04:29 PM

Quote:


Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.
:oops: 


With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.

Based on the volume of AMD traded in the last week there aren't a lot of those balls of steel investors around either. We should see a couple of dollars shaved off the stock price after they release the quarterly results and everyone finds out how bad the revenue "miss" translates to capital losses.


Or right before hey announce they drop Barcelona benches and every doubter has a heart attack.
But then I guess that's wishful thinkng too.
March 27, 2007 3:08:10 PM

Quote:


Hopefully, they won't take too much of a hit from the Street, but then I guess I did see a pig fly over my head last night on the way home from the train.
:oops: 


With such a large revenue miss coming up and likely further gross margin erosion due to the cut throat pricing, you would have to have balls of steel to buy AMD stock right now.

But if you think Q1 is bad, just wait until Q2.

And then the chant will begin, "How low can they go?".
March 27, 2007 3:12:36 PM

Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort. :cry: 
March 27, 2007 4:03:35 PM

Quote:
Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort. :cry: 


Hey this is what happens when your up against a bully. You have to have balls of steel.
March 27, 2007 4:25:21 PM

Quote:
Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort. :cry: 


The numbers are actually 50% off the original January estimates of $1.7B that was lowered earlier this month to the $1.2B they talk about.

I love this line>
"Our sources in and around AMD are playing it cool, stating that the company has enough cash in the bank to go through a rough Q1 and Q2 and deliver beyond expectations in Q3 and Q4."

Denile is not just a river in Egypt.
:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol: 
March 27, 2007 4:29:52 PM

Having cash available is not necessarily a good thing in an R&D heavy industry.
March 27, 2007 4:30:51 PM

Quote:
Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort. :cry: 


The numbers are actually 50% off the original January estimates of $1.7B that was lowered earlier this month to the $1.2B they talk about.

I love this line>
"Our sources in and around AMD are playing it cool, stating that the company has enough cash in the bank to go through a rough Q1 and Q2 and deliver beyond expectations in Q3 and Q4."

Denile is not just a river in Egypt.
:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol: 


I guess it must be great being privy to what's going on INSIDE AMD.
March 27, 2007 4:31:43 PM

Quote:
Having cash available is not necessarily a good thing in an R&D heavy industry.



Why? There's too much temptation?
March 27, 2007 4:35:40 PM

No... Sometimes its better to have that cash invested in new R&D projects, expansion, infrastructure, etc.

What I'm saying is that having 6 months of cash is not necessarily a bad thing.
March 27, 2007 4:36:40 PM

Quote:
Everybody and their mother knew AMD was going to miss on sales... the question is how much. If it's -25%, as reported in the article, that is pretty bad.

As far as reassurances about "having enough cash to last 6 months"... gee what a comfort. :cry: 


The numbers are actually 50% off the original January estimates of $1.7B that was lowered earlier this month to the $1.2B they talk about.

I love this line>
"Our sources in and around AMD are playing it cool, stating that the company has enough cash in the bank to go through a rough Q1 and Q2 and deliver beyond expectations in Q3 and Q4."

Denile is not just a river in Egypt.
:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol: 

Dang, talk about a hit to operating cash flow - YIKES. 8O
March 27, 2007 4:44:40 PM

Quote:
I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.


Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.
March 27, 2007 5:01:15 PM

Quote:
I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.


Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

Though I expected benches by now, AMDs JOB is CPUs. What do you think their engrs are doing if not keeping the wafers flowing?

Maybe they are gong to launch more than just Barcelona. Kuma woul dbe a great idea as it would directly affect Core 2. but then Agena/Budapest would be the higher margin if lower volume and would give a boost to the desktop "wars." I hate that word.


Let's see if April is the charm. Maybe a crazy April Fool's story with REAL 60% benchmark wins. That would be funnier than "MultiCore For Dummies."
March 27, 2007 5:11:11 PM

Quote:
I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.


Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

If the number ffrom the Inquirer are real (remember we are talking about a dubious news source) the hit on revenue is 50% from the January estimates and 25% alone for March. This indicates AMD has no idea of the future demand as they can't even predict 30 days into the future let alone 6 months. AMD cannot sustain their businness at the current price level and the cuts next month are going to burn through their remaining cash at a phenomenal rate. Cash reserves as of January were estimated to be 6 months at their current levels of expenditure and without any quarterly information or major announcements we must assume the level of expenditures remained relatively constant. With a revenue shortfall of $800M for the quarter I would have to agree with the Major that Barcelona is too far out to save them there isn't enough cash to get to there from here. Stock dilution could attempt to cover the shortfall and make it to production but without solid number for Barcelona dilution will crater the stock price as there aren't many buyers for AMD stock.
March 27, 2007 5:13:24 PM

The market price of stock generally is not leveraged off of the day to day actions of a company. Analysts are paid to do just that, analyze. They have already looked at AMD's Q1 and Q2 woes and potential for new products in Q3 and Q4 and probably into 2008 when making their buy/hold/sell recommendations.

Certainly we all feel tuned in to the happenings of AMD and Intel because we read the likes of the inquirer and TG Forumz, but rest assured that the institutions that are making multi-million dollar purchases of stock have done their homework. Granted that does not account for unforseen things popping up here and there, but the price of the stock today is a balance of current sales problems and future market share growth and profitability, and you can bet on that... they have.
March 27, 2007 5:13:25 PM

Quote:
I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.


Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

Though I expected benches by now, AMDs JOB is CPUs. What do you think their engrs are doing if not keeping the wafers flowing?

Maybe they are gong to launch more than just Barcelona. Kuma woul dbe a great idea as it would directly affect Core 2. but then Agena/Budapest would be the higher margin if lower volume and would give a boost to the desktop "wars." I hate that word.


Let's see if April is the charm. Maybe a crazy April Fool's story with REAL 60% benchmark wins. That would be funnier than "MultiCore For Dummies."Designing booklets about Intel, to hand out at trade shows. :D 
March 27, 2007 5:33:29 PM

Quote:
Designing booklets about Intel, to hand out at trade shows.


Actually, we janitors do it in between toilet seats.
March 27, 2007 6:42:00 PM

Quote:
I would buy large number of shares around mid-May when they are pushing Barcelona to be the next big thing.


Not even Barcelona can save them now. I still have not seen any Benchmarks on Barcelona for some reason :roll: I wouldn't count on it with the only info put out being what AMD says.

Though I expected benches by now, AMDs JOB is CPUs. What do you think their engrs are doing if not keeping the wafers flowing?

Maybe they are gong to launch more than just Barcelona. Kuma woul dbe a great idea as it would directly affect Core 2. but then Agena/Budapest would be the higher margin if lower volume and would give a boost to the desktop "wars." I hate that word.


Let's see if April is the charm. Maybe a crazy April Fool's story with REAL 60% benchmark wins. That would be funnier than "MultiCore For Dummies."

I was more suggesting that there are problems with Barcelona and that is why we see no demos/benchmarks about it. Nobody really knows how far their ramp is right now or even if they have a ramp going yet. Maybe they don't have a process yet that is worthy of a committed ramp due to horrible yeilds or maybe they have a killer defect in the process that they are having problems fixing. Let's face it, the 65nm transitors they have released so far are not the greatest.

Have they even sent out release candidates to the OEMs for Barcelona yet???

Some real demos 6 months before launch would have been nice to prove their is such thing as Barcelona. Hell, Penryn was demo'd at least 10 months in advance of its supposed release date. It is common knowledge that penryn is in the hands of OEMs and booted multiple operating systems with rev. 0 Si.

Maybe it is just me, but the silence is deafening.
March 27, 2007 6:47:42 PM

What about the mobo manufacturers? Surely they must have samples by now to make sure the boards and BIOS are ready when launch happens. If they have sent samples, I find it very surprising that there has not been one single benchmark leaked thus far.
March 27, 2007 6:52:35 PM

I don't know, I don't hear any one talking about it though.
March 27, 2007 6:54:17 PM

Quote:
I don't know, I don't hear any one talking about it though.


There are multiple reasons for AMD not to release early benches:
1. To avoid the market to stop purchasing the current AMD products.
2. To try to reduce the time for Intel to react.
March 27, 2007 7:09:29 PM

Quote:
I don't know, I don't hear any one talking about it though.


There are multiple reasons for AMD not to release early benches:
1. To avoid the market to stop purchasing the current AMD products.
2. To try to reduce the time for Intel to react. Both.. reasons that Intel had, yet it didn't stop them. :wink:
March 27, 2007 7:10:04 PM

Quote:
I don't know, I don't hear any one talking about it though.


There are multiple reasons for AMD not to release early benches:
1. To avoid the market to stop purchasing the current AMD products.
2. To try to reduce the time for Intel to react.

1. They've already lowered pricing on their current CPUs thus counteracting the drop in sales.
2. There would be very little Intel could do to counteract AMDs launch, except to lower prices, which we already know they're doing.
March 27, 2007 7:14:29 PM

The longer AMD delays the Barcelona benchmarks the more likely it becomes that the real world inprovements it offers will be small (i.e. +- 10%).
March 27, 2007 7:18:34 PM

Quote:
The market price of stock generally is not leveraged off of the day to day actions of a company. Analysts are paid to do just that, analyze. They have already looked at AMD's Q1 and Q2 woes and potential for new products in Q3 and Q4 and probably into 2008 when making their buy/hold/sell recommendations.

Certainly we all feel tuned in to the happenings of AMD and Intel because we read the likes of the inquirer and TG Forumz, but rest assured that the institutions that are making multi-million dollar purchases of stock have done their homework. Granted that does not account for unforseen things popping up here and there, but the price of the stock today is a balance of current sales problems and future market share growth and profitability, and you can bet on that... they have.


Institutions lose their arse's all the time... heck 95% of mutual funds fail to beat the market. Look at all the major US bankruptcies... plenty of "talented" institutions got hosed... both on the equity side and debt side.
March 27, 2007 7:21:37 PM

Quote:
1. They've already lowered pricing on their current CPUs thus counteracting the drop in sales.
2. There would be very little Intel could do to counteract AMDs launch, except to lower prices, which we already know they're doing.


1. The effects had been proved before the official launch for C2D series.
2. Intel still has 45nm processors to be released. :wink:
March 27, 2007 7:25:15 PM

Quote:
The longer AMD delays the Barcelona benchmarks the more likely it becomes that the real world inprovements it offers will be small (i.e. +- 10%).


So you think they are lying about it? Wouldn't that be worse than just having it come out a little slower and telling the truth?

Stalking me is obviously taking its toll. You've lost your mind.
March 27, 2007 7:26:38 PM

Quote:


Some real demos 6 months before launch would have been nice to prove their is such thing as Barcelona. Hell, Penryn was demo'd at least 10 months in advance of its supposed release date. It is common knowledge that penryn is in the hands of OEMs and booted multiple operating systems with rev. 0 Si.

Maybe it is just me, but the silence is deafening.


Completely agreed. A financially distressed company does not wait to pull a rabbit out of its hat at the 11th hour...

If Barcelona was every thing it was cracked up to be, it should have been taken on a whirlwind tour to drum up investor confidence.

The markets do not reward surprises (not even good ones sometimes- but that's a whole other discussion regarding business volatility). Instead, they reward management for delivering on their guidance.
March 27, 2007 7:36:11 PM

Quote:


Some real demos 6 months before launch would have been nice to prove their is such thing as Barcelona. Hell, Penryn was demo'd at least 10 months in advance of its supposed release date. It is common knowledge that penryn is in the hands of OEMs and booted multiple operating systems with rev. 0 Si.

Maybe it is just me, but the silence is deafening.


Completely agreed. A financially distressed company does not wait to pull a rabbit out of its hat at the 11th hour...

If Barcelona was every thing it was cracked up to be, it should have been taken on a whirlwind tour to drum up investor confidence.

The markets do not reward surprises (not even good ones sometimes- but that's a whole other discussion regarding business volatility). Instead, they reward management for delivering on their guidance.It's called Karma. "Bad Karma"...and their "Dual-Core for Dummies" stunt is turning around and biting them in the ass. :D  :p 
March 27, 2007 7:46:36 PM

Quote:
Yea soon we will have pc chip making for dummies from intel. :lol: 


Or, more specifically, 65nm process technology for dummies.
March 27, 2007 7:59:36 PM

Quote:


Some real demos 6 months before launch would have been nice to prove their is such thing as Barcelona. Hell, Penryn was demo'd at least 10 months in advance of its supposed release date. It is common knowledge that penryn is in the hands of OEMs and booted multiple operating systems with rev. 0 Si.

Maybe it is just me, but the silence is deafening.


Completely agreed. A financially distressed company does not wait to pull a rabbit out of its hat at the 11th hour...

If Barcelona was every thing it was cracked up to be, it should have been taken on a whirlwind tour to drum up investor confidence.

The markets do not reward surprises (not even good ones sometimes- but that's a whole other discussion regarding business volatility). Instead, they reward management for delivering on their guidance.


Intel has 10x the resources of AMD. I would not expect them to be able to do the same things in terms of launches and demos.

I am confident that a CPU company that made Opteron WILL improve on it and will MORE THAN LIKELY launch it on time

Like some of you have said they delayed R600 so they might have a faster chip to power it.

11th hour doesn't mean release it when you said. Early benchmarks may improve confidence but a released chip does even more.


Doom and Gloom.
March 27, 2007 8:12:37 PM

Quote:


Some real demos 6 months before launch would have been nice to prove their is such thing as Barcelona. Hell, Penryn was demo'd at least 10 months in advance of its supposed release date. It is common knowledge that penryn is in the hands of OEMs and booted multiple operating systems with rev. 0 Si.

Maybe it is just me, but the silence is deafening.


Completely agreed. A financially distressed company does not wait to pull a rabbit out of its hat at the 11th hour...

If Barcelona was every thing it was cracked up to be, it should have been taken on a whirlwind tour to drum up investor confidence.

The markets do not reward surprises (not even good ones sometimes- but that's a whole other discussion regarding business volatility). Instead, they reward management for delivering on their guidance.


Intel has 10x the resources of AMD. I would not expect them to be able to do the same things in terms of launches and demos.

I am confident that a CPU company that made Opteron WILL improve on it and will MORE THAN LIKELY launch it on time

Like some of you have said they delayed R600 so they might have a faster chip to power it.

11th hour doesn't mean release it when you said. Early benchmarks may improve confidence but a released chip does even more.


Doom and Gloom.


No, not demos... A demo... 1 lousy benchmark. Guess the silicon is too expensive these days for a single chip demo. :roll:
March 27, 2007 8:22:11 PM

Quote:


Some real demos 6 months before launch would have been nice to prove their is such thing as Barcelona. Hell, Penryn was demo'd at least 10 months in advance of its supposed release date. It is common knowledge that penryn is in the hands of OEMs and booted multiple operating systems with rev. 0 Si.

Maybe it is just me, but the silence is deafening.


Completely agreed. A financially distressed company does not wait to pull a rabbit out of its hat at the 11th hour...

If Barcelona was every thing it was cracked up to be, it should have been taken on a whirlwind tour to drum up investor confidence.

The markets do not reward surprises (not even good ones sometimes- but that's a whole other discussion regarding business volatility). Instead, they reward management for delivering on their guidance.


Intel has 10x the resources of AMD. I would not expect them to be able to do the same things in terms of launches and demos.

I am confident that a CPU company that made Opteron WILL improve on it and will MORE THAN LIKELY launch it on time

Like some of you have said they delayed R600 so they might have a faster chip to power it.

11th hour doesn't mean release it when you said. Early benchmarks may improve confidence but a released chip does even more.


Doom and Gloom.


No, not demos... A demo... 1 lousy benchmark. Guess the silicon is too expensive these days for a single chip demo. :roll:

<sarcasm> But haven't you seen AMD's Powerpoint Demo?!?!?! </sarcasm> :lol: 

IMO, they're not providing actual numbers because they can't or they're so far below what they're saying (just like their Q406 financials) as to be damaging to their already diminishing outlook...
March 27, 2007 8:29:53 PM

Quote:
No, not demos... A demo... 1 lousy benchmark. Guess the silicon is too expensive these days for a single chip demo.


Context clues are your friend. Since they need about 2.5 months to make a chip, I would guess that the first March runs will be the samples sent out in May. If Digitimes was right the saples are due in May, andshipments in june with availability probably in July.

I would just be interested to know what their Fab 36 Brisbane - Barcelona mix is.
March 27, 2007 8:58:11 PM

Quote:


No, not demos... A demo... 1 lousy benchmark. Guess the silicon is too expensive these days for a single chip demo. :roll:


AMD havnt shown any Barcelona benches yet.

Claiming a figure without giving a CPU clock speed does not constitute a benchmark.
March 27, 2007 9:09:01 PM

Quote:
IMO, they're not providing actual numbers because they can't or they're so far below what they're saying (just like their Q406 financials) as to be damaging to their already diminishing outlook...



So I guess they will go down in flames rather than just saying it's a little faster.

Doom and Gloom. Doom and Gloom.
March 27, 2007 9:12:08 PM

That's unless you're talking about all clock speeds that are relevant. But of course, they couldn't be since they are lying about the preliminary numbers.

I just wonder if you all said this before Opteron benches.

In a way it's good as I guess they're gunning for the Brood too. The wind will definitely come out of your sails WHEN it is 40% or more faster.
March 27, 2007 9:12:13 PM

Quote:
IMO, they're not providing actual numbers because they can't or they're so far below what they're saying (just like their Q406 financials) as to be damaging to their already diminishing outlook...



So I guess they will go down in flames rather than just saying it's a little faster.

Doom and Gloom. Doom and Gloom.

Wow - did I say jack squat about doom and gloom or anything about them going down in flames?!?! Don't put words at my fingertips that I don't explicitly type, because, in your usual manner, you'll make erroneous assumptions or just spout outright idiocy.
March 27, 2007 9:15:27 PM

Quote:
IMO, they're not providing actual numbers because they can't or they're so far below what they're saying (just like their Q406 financials) as to be damaging to their already diminishing outlook...



So I guess they will go down in flames rather than just saying it's a little faster.

Doom and Gloom. Doom and Gloom.

Wow - did I say jack squat about doom and gloom or anything about them going down in flames?!?! Don't put words at my fingertips that I don't explicitly type, because, in your usual manner, you'll make erroneous assumptions or just spout outright idiocy.


You're right basically calling them liars is not Doom and Gloom it's just insulting. You did just say they were PROBABLY LYING, right?

Maybe you shoul dre-read this post.

Quote:
IMO, they're not providing actual numbers because they can't or they're so far below what they're saying (just like their Q406 financials) as to be damaging to their already diminishing outlook...


Context clues say you think they intentionally lied about Q4 and are lying now about Barcelona.



You do know what contet clues are, right?
March 27, 2007 9:17:12 PM

Quote:
The wind will definitely come out of your sails WHEN it is 40% or more faster.


Now is that 40% faster than Intel's C2Ds or 40% faster than old AMD chips... sorry AMD's CEO wasn't exactly clear on that one. :?
March 27, 2007 9:28:44 PM

Quote:
Context clues say you think they intentionally lied about Q4 and are lying now about Barcelona.

You do know what contet clues are, right?


You read whatever you want into it my little man - fact of the matter is they mis-led investors re Q4, which to me is an intentional lie - don't deny it, proof is all over the 'net...so if they're capable of it one way, they're certainly capable of it in another...again my opinion...
March 27, 2007 9:35:18 PM

Quote:
Context clues say you think they intentionally lied about Q4 and are lying now about Barcelona.

You do know what contet clues are, right?


You read whatever you want into it my little man - fact of the matter is they mis-led investors re Q4, which to me is an intentional lie - don't deny it, proof is all over the 'net...so if they're capable of it one way, they're certainly capable of it in another...again my opinion...

So post a link. Anyone in their right mind should have expected Q4 wth the acquisition costs coming due and the price war. It's interesting how Intel has been convicted of this type of thing bu tnever a bad word is mentioned. The little engine that could gets to suffer so you can have free choice.


Talk about ungrateful vermin.
March 27, 2007 9:35:35 PM

Quote:
The wind will definitely come out of your sails WHEN it is 40% or more faster.


Now is that 40% faster than Intel's C2Ds or 40% faster than old AMD chips... sorry AMD's CEO wasn't exactly clear on that one. :?

Sorry to interrupt your baron bashing but they did actually say 40% better than intel (cloverton) and 70-80% better than K8 :wink:

Now whether that is clock for clock or not has yet to be seen, although i've chosen to assume that, and in general wouldn't make sense.
March 27, 2007 9:46:02 PM

Quote:


So post a link.

Talk about ungrateful vermin.


Do a search.

And watch the insults - I have yet to say one thing negative or derogatory towards you, so I highly recommend you apply the same courtesy.
March 27, 2007 9:49:05 PM

I think AMD's CEO said that he speculates that he fully expects there to be a 70-80% gain in performance. :lol: 

This is much better than a real demo or a benchmark that can be recreated using other processors. 8O

Clear as mud, AMD speculates they might have a processor called barcelona that is 70%-80% faster in doing something than something else. I guess I should buy a MB that will allow me to upgrade based on this. :roll:
March 27, 2007 10:18:48 PM

Wonder why INQ is the only one reporting this..
!