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Merill Lynch - AMD needs to raise $1B in stock to survive!

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  • AMD
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April 4, 2007 6:07:12 PM

A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.
April 4, 2007 6:19:31 PM

The farther the stock falls, the more painful the needed equity financing/dilution will be, thus causing the stock to fall further. It's starting to turn into a situation reminiscent of the effect of death spiral bonds.
April 4, 2007 6:29:19 PM

Less crack sprinkling pls. :p 
April 4, 2007 6:32:17 PM

Quote:
Less crack sprinkling pls. :p 


Reminds me of the Dave Chapelle skit, :) 
April 4, 2007 6:33:01 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


I agree. Not to mention all of the new ATi products for the consumer-electronics market. If they keep up their SC/HPC wins with Barcelona and Budapest and FireStream, they will be close enough to raise some of these ratings.

I really hope that they can flood the market with Agena and Kuma.
April 4, 2007 6:50:07 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Unfortunately, DAMMIT has shown a complete lack of ability to achieve any of those rather modest tasks.

Rob
April 4, 2007 7:00:48 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Unfortunately, DAMMIT has shown a complete lack of ability to achieve any of those rather modest tasks.

Rob

I couldn't have said it better myself.
April 4, 2007 7:09:24 PM

I think it's pragmatic. These are real issues AMD is facing. And it's now almost certain AMD won't rebound until at least Q4. I personally think AMD won't see black until Q2 of 2008; assuming of course that Barcelona is as good as AMD says. If Barcelona sucks or Intel is able to compete closely with it... well... God help AMD.

But even IF AMD is able to deliver a knock out product (Barcelona), all Intel has to do is continue to wage this price war.
April 4, 2007 7:09:32 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


I agree. Not to mention all of the new ATi products for the consumer-electronics market. If they keep up their SC/HPC wins with Barcelona and Budapest and FireStream, they will be close enough to raise some of these ratings.

I really hope that they can flood the market with Agena and Kuma.

The problem, as I see it, is AMD's refusal to release products. They've been claiming to have R600 cards around for months, but they keep coming up with excuses for not releasing them, the latest that I read being that they wanted to release a full product line at once, rather than dribbling them out one at a time.

Since they have a need for cash flow, if they really have a working card, they should have it out and on the market. Its better to release only one card and have some money coming in than to release nothing and have no money coming in. This only strengthens Nvidia's cash position while it bleeds AMD's. A released working card would encourage both buyers of the product and buyers of stocks. As it is, both the product buyers and the stock buyers have little or nothing to look at and so things go from bad to worse.

I'd really like to build a machine with a new AMD cpu and the R600 card, but I can't exist on promises of a distant and vague future. Yes, it would be nice to flood the market with high performance Agena and Kuma cpus. But until that happens, AMD will not have money coming in, only going out to pay bills. Their survival as a company as it stands is becoming more uncertain. I do hope they survive, because I'd hate to have only one cpu maker, Intel, in complete control and dictating what we will pay and what they will offer.
April 4, 2007 7:20:48 PM

Quote:
the latest that I read being that they wanted to release a full product line at once, rather than dribbling them out one at a time.


Yes and it's an incredibly naiive idea on AMD's part. Every major generation launch has (and continues) to do the exact opposite. nVidia has never launched a full line of nex gen GPU's all at once and it's worked well for them. It worked well for ATI. Doing so provides a stead cash flow every quarter.

So the question is: why is AMD attempting to fix something that wasn't broken?

I just don't get it. [/frustrated]
April 4, 2007 7:25:18 PM

Quote:

So the question is: why is AMD attempting to fix something that wasn't broken?

I just don't get it. [/frustrated]


That's the one thing that keeps popping to my mind, that the R600 really doesn't work and is broken, and AMD is just making a string of excuses rather than admitting the truth and saying that they have had to go back to R&D and start over.
April 4, 2007 7:30:33 PM

Quote:
the latest that I read being that they wanted to release a full product line at once, rather than dribbling them out one at a time.


Yes and it's an incredibly naiive idea on AMD's part. Every major generation launch has (and continues) to do the exact opposite. nVidia has never launched a full line of nex gen GPU's all at once and it's worked well for them. It worked well for ATI. Doing so provides a stead cash flow every quarter.

So the question is: why is AMD attempting to fix something that wasn't broken?

I just don't get it. [/frustrated]

I think AMD wants to demo R600 with its own processor. So it is now waiting for Next Gen. Arch. quad-core.
April 4, 2007 7:53:54 PM

The notion that ATI/AMD wants a full product line available on launch is rather absurd... especially considering how many 8800's (bad drivers and all) have been sold... and where were the supporting cards? The 8600s? The 8400s? That sure as hell didn't stop NVidia from rolling in the money... $600 for a video card is crazy, but people do pay it and Nvidia is proof.

Sorry ATI/AMD... I'm not buying that line of bull either.
April 4, 2007 8:06:44 PM

I buy AMD's story about pushing back the R600 launch to make the products better and have a significant quantity at launch. They moved the entire line to 65nm, for example. That's a pretty big shift to make on a new product launch (something AMD traditionally hasn't done with CPUs).

It will be here soon. It will be good. People will be happy. I'm 85% sure. That other 15% is for people who will bitch about power consumption and the possibility of Nvidia pulling something nice out of the 8900 hat of tricks.

I'm a little less optimistic about K10. It will own the server space in most ways until Nehalem, I have little doubt, but in desktops...I'm not sure. The lower-end products (1.9 / 2.1Ghz) will be rather competitive at whatever price point they're at and will likely OC rather well (this is a pretty standard occurance these days...), and a 2.9Ghz dual-core will be nice. I'm only really worried about their quad-core desktop parts. The clock speed just isn't there, regardless of architectural changes. AMD better have one HELL of an ace up there sleeve with K10 that most people don't know about.
April 4, 2007 8:07:38 PM

Quote:

They weren't trying to fix something .... in my opinion.

I should explain what I am thinking, as it is an opnion, I welcome rebuttles.

jack


Jack, I largely agree with you. There are many different causes for the troubles that AMD is in now, including that Intel doesn't want AMD to succeed.

That said, I think AMD has had some very bad management decissions. Their continual lack of progress, delaying releases time and time again remind me of a bit of history I read long ago. As I remember, during WW 2 at Anzio, the American General (Lucas) in charge kept delaying and delaying his attack, wanting to build up a large attacking force before doing anything. He nearly lost the campaign, as his delays only meant that the Germans had time to bring in more troops and equipment and fortify their positions. The battle was eventually won with the help of other generals and the armies they commanded, but it was a very bloody one.

I think that the leadership at AMD has fallen to some of the same thinking of General Lucas, waiting for an overwhelming product to take on Intel and Nividia, rather than doing what could be done with what was available. Just as the war critics have written that Patton or Truscott could have broken through and won the battle quickly, I think that more aggressive leadership on AMD's side could have resulted in a better market position than they now have.

Just my thoughts on the situation.
April 4, 2007 8:19:06 PM

Quote:
The farther the stock falls, the more painful the needed equity financing/dilution will be, thus causing the stock to fall further. It's starting to turn into a situation reminiscent of the effect of death spiral bonds.


Hmmm, that's a scary thought. 8O

The weirdest thing is that AMD has actually been a slightly better investment than Intel for anybody who bought 5 years ago. I noticed that by looking at this chart:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=INTC&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=AMD&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC

For the last 2 years they're identical. It's only the last year or so that went totally wrong for AMD. I wonder if this is because of buying ATI or because Core 2 Duo is so good...
April 4, 2007 8:29:08 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Unfortunately, DAMMIT has shown a complete lack of ability to achieve any of those rather modest tasks.

Rob

I wouldn't say that. It has been revealed that AMD (damn the Inq) delayed R600 after samples were around to launch all SKUs at 65nm. They have already released a new handheld GPU, desktop/mobile chipset IGP, FireStream(for PCIe and Torrenza) for Barcelona, completed transition to 65nm (Chartered ramping, Fab36 100%) and all this while being called names and second-guessed.

If those are missteps, I just don't know. I would say that the one thing they could hav edone was not add the latency to Brisbane, but I have yet to see an occasion where it really renders anything unusable.
April 4, 2007 8:58:18 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Unfortunately, DAMMIT has shown a complete lack of ability to achieve any of those rather modest tasks.

Rob

I wouldn't say that. It has been revealed that AMD (damn the Inq) delayed R600 after samples were around to launch all SKUs at 65nm. They have already released a new handheld GPU, desktop/mobile chipset IGP, FireStream(for PCIe and Torrenza) for Barcelona, completed transition to 65nm (Chartered ramping, Fab36 100%) and all this while being called names and second-guessed.

If those are missteps, I just don't know. I would say that the one thing they could hav edone was not add the latency to Brisbane, but I have yet to see an occasion where it really renders anything unusable.

So you are now dissing your favorite rag?

You have repeatedly questioned AMD and their leadership yourself!!?

So what? Now AMD has only one thing that hinders it, but that is actually not a problem? So AMD just makes perfect chips? :roll:

You are gay, in the nicest way! :wink:
April 4, 2007 10:17:14 PM

Quote:

They weren't trying to fix something .... in my opinion.

I should explain what I am thinking, as it is an opnion, I welcome rebuttles.

jack


Jack, I largely agree with you. There are many different causes for the troubles that AMD is in now, including that Intel doesn't want AMD to succeed.

That said, I think AMD has had some very bad management decissions. Their continual lack of progress, delaying releases time and time again remind me of a bit of history I read long ago. As I remember, during WW 2 at Anzio, the American General (Lucas) in charge kept delaying and delaying his attack, wanting to build up a large attacking force before doing anything. He nearly lost the campaign, as his delays only meant that the Germans had time to bring in more troops and equipment and fortify their positions. The battle was eventually won with the help of other generals and the armies they commanded, but it was a very bloody one.

I think that the leadership at AMD has fallen to some of the same thinking of General Lucas, waiting for an overwhelming product to take on Intel and Nividia, rather than doing what could be done with what was available. Just as the war critics have written that Patton or Truscott could have broken through and won the battle quickly, I think that more aggressive leadership on AMD's side could have resulted in a better market position than they now have.

Just my thoughts on the situation.

Planning a generation of processors in the electronics industry is nothing like planning a battle. It is much more similar to planning a war. The decisions that have placed AMD in its current situation weren't made in the last six months. They were made over a year ago. There are decisions that get made concerning technology and design tools development and architecture development that are made years in advance. Then there are decisions about fab construction and management that are also made years in advance. By the time you get inside of a year or six months, it is just a matter of fighting fires and tweaking the details by making trade-offs.

AMD might be holding off because they can't fab the monolithic monster that is Barcelona very well. It doesn't have to be a case of them wanting to have a Core2 killer. They may just want to get what they've been working on for the last 2+ years to yield.

The situation with ATi sounds like they are forcing them to switch to AMD fabs and it is causing delays. They might have even had to re-spin some of the masks. They said they are planning on manufacturing R600 on 65nm, so they might have shrunk the design, which is more difficult than it sounds.

At the end of the day, it appears that Intel has caught AMD in a vulnerable position and is hammering them the Core2 architecture and low prices. AMD is in this position because of decisions to increase their market share, decisions about the K10 architecture, the decision to acquire ATi, and the emergence of the Core2 architecture. The last two factors are the only factors that have come into play in the last year. Acquiring AMD at a time when AMD knew they weren't competitive in microprocessors was a huge mistake, but only because it strained them financially at a time when they were vulnerable. The timeline on their next gen processor has little to do with this other than to make the point that it was the wrong time to acquire ATi. Their mistakes in the graphics market since then probably have more to do with trying to salvage their financial situation than wanting to beat Nvidia with an overwhelming product.
April 4, 2007 10:37:05 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Unfortunately, DAMMIT has shown a complete lack of ability to achieve any of those rather modest tasks.

Rob

I wouldn't say that. It has been revealed that AMD (damn the Inq) delayed R600 after samples were around to launch all SKUs at 65nm. They have already released a new handheld GPU, desktop/mobile chipset IGP, FireStream(for PCIe and Torrenza) for Barcelona, completed transition to 65nm (Chartered ramping, Fab36 100%) and all this while being called names and second-guessed.

If those are missteps, I just don't know. I would say that the one thing they could hav edone was not add the latency to Brisbane, but I have yet to see an occasion where it really renders anything unusable.

Baron, I think we are getting the run around on this whole 65 nm/R600 news....

http://www.techreport.com/onearticle.x/12161
http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&ta... (as much as you can believe Fuad)

The rumor mill is full of stuff so nobody really knows...

THe added latency in brisbane is not something they necessarily chose to do.... it is a natural result of a shrink and the inability to drive the low-k material to lower k value.... RC delay is contantly a factory with each shrink, it would appear AMD was not successful and driving it down. Of course this is that device physics stuff you don't like, but unfortunately it is what causes latency.

Jack

It is credible that R600 using the 80nm process from TSMC could be a cause of the delays that are going on for ATi. Getting sucked into this "half-node" on their flagship product for this generation was probably a mistake on ATi's part. I highly doubt that TSMC has done as much work on it as they did on 90nm or 65nm. Being caught on the "red-headed step-child" process is not a good thing.

I could be wrong, and ATi could be delaying their release to have a whole slew of products, but that also sounds like a stupid move when it is the enthusiasts that are going to help pay for chips when the process is new and they are expensive.
April 4, 2007 10:55:55 PM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Unfortunately, DAMMIT has shown a complete lack of ability to achieve any of those rather modest tasks.

Rob

I wouldn't say that. It has been revealed that AMD (damn the Inq) delayed R600 after samples were around to launch all SKUs at 65nm. They have already released a new handheld GPU, desktop/mobile chipset IGP, FireStream(for PCIe and Torrenza) for Barcelona, completed transition to 65nm (Chartered ramping, Fab36 100%) and all this while being called names and second-guessed.

If those are missteps, I just don't know. I would say that the one thing they could hav edone was not add the latency to Brisbane, but I have yet to see an occasion where it really renders anything unusable.

Baron, I think we are getting the run around on this whole 65 nm/R600 news....

http://www.techreport.com/onearticle.x/12161
http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&ta... (as much as you can believe Fuad)

The rumor mill is full of stuff so nobody really knows...

THe added latency in brisbane is not something they necessarily chose to do.... it is a natural result of a shrink and the inability to drive the low-k material to lower k value.... RC delay is contantly a factory with each shrink, it would appear AMD was not successful and driving it down. Of course this is that device physics stuff you don't like, but unfortunately it is what causes latency.

Jack

I take everything with a grain of salt and try to determine if available signs can corroborate claims. I'm not ready to say that R600 won't ship on 65nm since that is TSMC and not AMD.

Their explanation was adjustable cache sizes, but hey Kuma and L3 would fix most latency problems.

Times are just bad right now because of a very "aggressive" market leader, not missteps on AMDs part.
April 5, 2007 12:23:58 AM

Quote:


They weren't trying to fix something .... in my opinion.

I should explain what I am thinking, as it is an opnion, I welcome rebuttles.

AMD has through it's history bordered between success and failure, in some cases (some years) profitable, in others, losing money. A portion of that is in CPUs, but AMD was much more diversified than it is today (but are rebuilding that with ATI acquisition). Nonetheless, AMD played the game for many many years as a second source supplier, lacking capacity would never land huge contract wins as many feared a depeleted supply line. This is the barrel Intel held over the OEMs and what really blocked AMD from breakthrough performance.

Aside from the capacity concerns, AMD needed a product that people looked at wanting to buy rather than as an alternative to buy. This was not crystal clear until K8.... with that product, came success and rightfully so -- it was a great product. However, capacity now come back to haunt them and stunts the potential of the success while they are capable of success.

Here is the point: AMD needs to get big... they need the cash flow to fund R&D to develop the products to stay competitive and continue to flourish.... they are doing the right thing in my opinion, but their timing is atrocious. It is getting too expensive to develop the next generation process and design the next generation processor that to be competitive 5 years from now they need to invest now, and they need a portion of the market share to fund this endeavor....

It would appear that Intel does not want to allow this to happen.

jack


I dont know if I agree with that. While I cant deny the accuracy of the foundation you've presented, there are at least several significant reasons for ATI to have released the R600 if it was ready. In addition to the obvious, the sales losses from consumers looking to upgrade to DX 10, there are other potential long term dangers. Allowing Nvidia to develop a toehold on the DX10 market, loss of overall graphics card market share due to the market upgrading, negative publicity ('the company who couldnt deliver'), and loss of market exposure to name a few.

The perspective you've presented is sound, and seems to be a strong possibility, but considering how many potential negative aspects there are (and Im sure I havnt thought of a fraction of them) vs how many positive aspects, plus the trouble Nvidias been having with their cards, I cant help but wonder if ATI has had some trouble, at least in drivers, with the R600.

In this case, we are going to have to accept Henri's( :roll: ) word. But we'll still have to wait to see how it performs and what the long term consequences or benefits (if any) of the delay are. More armchair quarterbacking for us.
April 5, 2007 12:49:15 AM

There's a hole in the profit bucket, dear Henri, dear Henri...[/Sesame Street]

I gotta believe the R600 delay is driver oriented. After this fiasco, AMD needs to make sure it's drivers are more stable. Add to that, the R600 is full of HDCP and other DRM features - which makes operating/stability concerns across different hardware configurations a freakin' nightmare.

Not meaning to hijack this thread to a DRM debate - there are enough of them in the Software section, for those who want to discuss DRM further.
April 5, 2007 1:24:06 AM

Quote:
There's a hole in the profit bucket, dear Henri, dear Henri...[/Sesame Street]

I gotta believe the R600 delay is driver oriented. After this fiasco, AMD needs to make sure it's drivers are more stable. Add to that, the R600 is full of HDCP and other DRM features - which makes operating/stability concerns across different hardware configurations a freakin' nightmare.

Not meaning to hijack this thread to a DRM debate - there are enough of them in the Software section, for those who want to discuss DRM further.





^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Quispy Qunchy Hijacker!

I hear ya. With the current prices, Ive been considering laying in a lifetime supply of AMD spare systems to always have a non-DRM corrupted machine available.
April 5, 2007 3:05:48 AM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Are you sure? By that time the 8800 cards will be in all high-end computers and the prices of the 8800 series will be down by many hundreds.

Also, not everybody is willing to wait for K10, most people are going for Allendale processors which are good performers for the price.

Its taking way too long for AMD to release their new products.
April 5, 2007 3:17:17 AM

I'm praying for the day the X2900XTX arrive so I can make Solitaire look cool!
April 5, 2007 3:51:45 AM

Yeah and Im waiting for the 8950GX2 to put them in SLI and play tetris
April 5, 2007 4:02:00 AM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.


Unfortunately, DAMMIT has shown a complete lack of ability to achieve any of those rather modest tasks.

Rob

I wouldn't say that. It has been revealed that AMD (damn the Inq) delayed R600 after samples were around to launch all SKUs at 65nm. They have already released a new handheld GPU, desktop/mobile chipset IGP, FireStream(for PCIe and Torrenza) for Barcelona, completed transition to 65nm (Chartered ramping, Fab36 100%) and all this while being called names and second-guessed.

If those are missteps, I just don't know. I would say that the one thing they could hav edone was not add the latency to Brisbane, but I have yet to see an occasion where it really renders anything unusable.

Baron, I think we are getting the run around on this whole 65 nm/R600 news....

http://www.techreport.com/onearticle.x/12161
http://www.fudzilla.com/index.php?option=com_content&ta... (as much as you can believe Fuad)

The rumor mill is full of stuff so nobody really knows...

THe added latency in brisbane is not something they necessarily chose to do.... it is a natural result of a shrink and the inability to drive the low-k material to lower k value.... RC delay is contantly a factory with each shrink, it would appear AMD was not successful and driving it down. Of course this is that device physics stuff you don't like, but unfortunately it is what causes latency.

Jack

I take everything with a grain of salt and try to determine if available signs can corroborate claims. I'm not ready to say that R600 won't ship on 65nm since that is TSMC and not AMD.

Their explanation was adjustable cache sizes, but hey Kuma and L3 would fix most latency problems.

Times are just bad right now because of a very "aggressive" market leader, not missteps on AMDs part.Once again, it's somebody else's fault that AMD is hurting........it's never their fault. You're as good as my 13 y.o daughter, at making excuses. :roll:
April 5, 2007 4:28:16 AM

Quote:
Yeah and Im waiting for the 8950GX2 to put them in SLI and play tetris


roflmao.

Nice.

Honestly, AMD is in trouble, but I wouldn't except this to be that bad. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Chapter 11 is in AMD's future if they can't get their sh!t straight... Frankly, they just can't compete in the market Intel has setup. AMD would use it as a shield for restructuring and relieving some of its debt obligations, not because they are truly in bankruptcy (that is chapter 7 :D  ). Many airlines did this post 9/11.

This is akin to to Toyota putting the big squeeze on the Big 3. It hurts and the outlook isn't pretty. Toyota is after Ford/GM with all barrels firing and it is working, the same goes for Intel. Intel has beaten AMD in performance and has kept a tight squeeze on price and is threatening to roll out 45nm (could be wrong on the exact size heh) shortly after AMD just taps 65nm.

The difference is Ford/GM are #1/2, depending on how you slice it, and had the excess cash reserve to burn through during its current restructuring... AMD doesn't quite have that stock pile to burn through. You are all hanging your hopes and dreams on products that have long been delayed, shown questionable performance, and I just don't see them producing a great deal of cash. There is no way AMD is going to be able to charge a premium for their next processor.

Intel has flat out established dominance and the only way AMD is going to be able to take back some ground is undercutting Intel in price and/or matching their price but spanking Intel in performance. Jack is a great deal more knowledgeable about the likelihood of that, so I will leave that speculation to him (performance that is).

AMD has plain screwed up... just poor management decisions, plain and simple. They should have known 4 x 4 was going to be a failure. Fusion is still off in the future and won't be here in time to save them. I am not surprised at those debt covenants, those things are nasty, just nasty. My problem is, I am not sure if they can get $1B from a new issuance of capital stock. Maybe 6 months ago, but now... hmm that is some risky stock.

I will be the first to support AMD once they have a superior product, so don't call me an Intel fanboy... I am a fanboy of what works the best and right now that is Intel and nVidia, not AMD.
April 5, 2007 4:31:11 AM

I think AMD's biggest mistake is making Barcelona a native quad-core first. they should have released a dual core part first because their 65nm process is not mature enough to handle such a large die. Getting a dual-core part out first to compete with Core2 would have been better than releasing a quad-core part that gets poor yield as evidenced by a 2.3ghz launch frequency. Also getting a 3GHZ dual-core would have been better than a 2.3GHz quad-core. By the time their desktop parts come out, Penryn will be released at ultra-high frequencies.

also, they will help their stock price a great deal if they release a demo system and some preliminary benchmarks. Even if the system has to be Nitrogen cooled, it will help restore confidence. Their secrecy is obviously not generating confidence.
April 5, 2007 4:45:42 AM

I still believe that AMD has something up its sleeve,and we will see what it is in the 3rd to 4thQ this year.I just can't see a company like AMD making the so called blunder that everyone says it has made without a good reason.They must have something to look forward to.Surely they knew INTEL would take an agressive stance once the AMD/ATI merger happened.No,AMD is not out yet,just a little behind right now.

Dahak

AMD X2-4400+@2.6 TOLEDO
EVGA NF4 SLI MB
2X EVGA 7950GT KO IN SLI
4X 512MB CRUCIAL BALLISTIX DDR500
WD300GIG HD/SAMSUNG 250GIG HD
ACER 22IN WIDESCREEN LCD 1600X1200
THERMALTAKE TOUGHPOWER 850WATT PSU
COOLERMASTER MINI R120
3DMARK05 13,471
April 5, 2007 6:05:30 AM

Quote:
I think AMD's biggest mistake is making Barcelona a native quad-core first. they should have released a dual core part first because their 65nm process is not mature enough to handle such a large die. Getting a dual-core part out first to compete with Core2 would have been better than releasing a quad-core part that gets poor yield as evidenced by a 2.3ghz launch frequency. Also getting a 3GHZ dual-core would have been better than a 2.3GHz quad-core. By the time their desktop parts come out, Penryn will be released at ultra-high frequencies.

also, they will help their stock price a great deal if they release a demo system and some preliminary benchmarks. Even if the system has to be Nitrogen cooled, it will help restore confidence. Their secrecy is obviously not generating confidence.


You're not the first person to say they should have stuck two Brisbane cores together in a MCP to get a quad-core out the door just to say they did. IMO, they should have.
April 5, 2007 6:10:42 AM

With all these delays from AMD, at least they may come out with a surprise at launch with a 200MHz bump to try and restore confidence.
April 5, 2007 6:46:02 AM

Quote:
There's a hole in the profit bucket, dear Henri, dear Henri...[/Sesame Street]

I gotta believe the R600 delay is driver oriented. After this fiasco, AMD needs to make sure it's drivers are more stable. Add to that, the R600 is full of HDCP and other DRM features - which makes operating/stability concerns across different hardware configurations a freakin' nightmare.

Not meaning to hijack this thread to a DRM debate - there are enough of them in the Software section, for those who want to discuss DRM further.

you forgot that theres information regarding that the latest nvidia drivers do Bsod too? :|
April 5, 2007 7:03:26 AM

Please stop sprinkling, soon you will see a bunch of doctors in here then what. :p 
April 5, 2007 7:37:30 AM

Quote:
I still believe that AMD has something up its sleeve


Yeah, and I think it's a bad case of Body Odour.

Not directed towards you, Dahak, but I'm laughing my a$$ off reading fanbois willing AMD forward through positive karma and the release of a miraculous benchmark or two.

Merrill Lynch knows more about AMD than Hector does, and for sure more than all of us put together. They have armies of MBA analysts poring over numbers for years on end and to dispute their conclusions is as stupid and amateurish as that lil' dilettante ho LaKisha getting advice from a legend like Tony Bennett and then ignoring it and doing it "her way."

It doesn't prove that the fanbois are smarter than the pros. It just shows that they're just more lobotomized midget ankle-biters. :lol: 
April 5, 2007 8:52:24 AM

LOL.Fair enough.They are,after all,the experts.I just like to see AMD kicking INTELS butt.We can all hope for the best for AMD,cause if INTEL manages to put them out of business then we are all hooped.

Dahak

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April 5, 2007 9:38:31 AM

...then that will be AMD's own fault, Dahak.

Poor execution and trying to bite more than they can chew.
April 5, 2007 9:41:38 AM

I just hope they come up with a great product. I got intel P4 with my home system. But 95% of my cousins company workstations got Athlon64 when we bought majority of them way back 2003. The only parts I've upgraded in them is the memory from 512mb then to 1GB this year. We got 25 units for our small office. I thought comparing them with P4 that time was the right decision based on our applications.
April 5, 2007 9:53:43 AM

Quote:
A few good K10 benchmarks, a solid R600 launch and a little optimism will get them more than that $1Billion by the end of Q3.

I doubt the R600 launch will be all that solid. And we're still waiting for K10 benchmarks.
April 5, 2007 1:10:41 PM

Quote:
It would appear that Intel does not want to allow this to happen.


Quote:
Times are just bad right now because of a very "aggressive" market leader, not missteps on AMDs part.


I just wanted to quote you two because you so rarely seem to agree :D 

If Intel really wants to be aggressive, I wonder why they keep selling their C2D CPU's underclocked. As far as I know they have a more or less fixed pricetable (999$, 530$, 316$, 266$, 183$, 163$, ...) and by the time we're the end of april, AMD will only have competitive CPUs (performance wise) in the category of 266$ and lower. Given how easilly C2D's can be overclocked I don't understand why Intel doesn't bump all their CPU speeds up by two or three notches, leaving ADM to battle for marketshare in the 160$ and lower category. If I wanted to be aggressive, that's what I'd do at this point. Similar to what is announced for 2H this year, but worse (for AMD).

I don't think that would kill AMD, as I have always known them (since 1991?) as the company who made something similar to what Intel made but sold it cheaper, regardless of how it measured up to the top performing CPU. I don't see how the situation as it is now, is any different from what it was 15 years ago. Maybe because in 2007, more is expected from ADM than simply provide the best they can at an honest price?

Kind regards,

Lyngvi.
April 5, 2007 1:14:59 PM

you just wait! I hope the high-end R600 have better benchmarks and stable drivers. This will bring down Nvidia's prices down and force them to release the mid-lvl G80's and their next gen sooner.
April 5, 2007 1:51:30 PM

Quote:
you just wait! I hope the high-end R600 have better benchmarks and stable drivers. This will bring down Nvidia's prices down and force them to release the mid-lvl G80's and their next gen sooner.

ATI isn't really in a position to force Nvidia to do anything. They are months behind, while Nvidia prepares to release its midrange cards and G81. ATI has yet to release any DX10 cards whatsoever. Even if R600 outperforms G80 it has to be by a large margin otherwise it will be too little, too late.
April 5, 2007 1:54:39 PM

Quote:
you just wait! I hope the high-end R600 have better benchmarks and stable drivers. This will bring down Nvidia's prices down and force them to release the mid-lvl G80's and their next gen sooner.


I hope that Charlize Theron shows up at my door, rips the bodice off her heaving bosom and jumps on my face. But as the old saying says, wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which one gets full first. :twisted:

$12.63/share and market cap of $6.98 Billion anyone? Step right up! Get your AMD stock here! Limited time only! :lol: 

Damn! In the 60 seconds it took to write and post this message it's already down another two cents to $12.61! Gravity sucks, doesn't it? :roll:
April 5, 2007 2:09:41 PM

Quote:
Please stop sprinkling, soon you will see a bunch of doctors in here then what. :p 


:?:
April 5, 2007 2:17:01 PM

Quote:
you just wait! I hope the high-end R600 have better benchmarks and stable drivers. This will bring down Nvidia's prices down and force them to release the mid-lvl G80's and their next gen sooner.


I hope that Charlize Theron shows up at my door, rips the bodice off her heaving bosom and jumps on my face. But as the old saying says, wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which one gets full first. :twisted:

$12.63/share and market cap of $6.98 Billion anyone? Step right up! Get your AMD stock here! Limited time only! :lol: 

Damn! In the 60 seconds it took to write and post this message it's already down another two cents to $12.61! Gravity sucks, doesn't it? :roll:

1) Another analyst downgrade today... with a target price of $10 per share.

2) AMD has not yet scheduled an earnings call for Q1... even though it is supposed to be April 19th.

3) the Put options, which expire April 20th, are going CRAZY. Which in of itself is a VERY VERY bad sign. In order to be "in the money" the stock needs to hit about $12 or lower in the next 15 days. 8O

For those here not familiar with Put options, basically they make money when the stock price falls below a certain price (called the strike price). Like all options, they are extremely risky. The fact that they expire in just 15 days & the stock needs to drop another 5-6% to breakeven- makes them EXTREMELY risky (if it doesn't drop by 5-6%, you lose EVERYTHING).

Any guesses as to why??

I'll put out a few:

A) announcement of major dilution (selling of shares in the open market)
B) announcement of massive losses/cash drain (beyond already expected losses)
C) product delays
D) all of the above
E) other


My gut is going A & B as the driver. They may attempt to sell stock in the open market before earnings release.
April 5, 2007 2:23:15 PM

Quote:

1) Another analyst downgrade today... with a target price of $10 per share.

2) AMD has not yet scheduled an earnings call for Q1... even though it is supposed to be April 19th.

3) the Put options, which expire April 20th, are going CRAZY. Which in of itself is a VERY VERY bad sign. In order to be "in the money" the stock needs to hit about $12 or lower in the next 15 days. 8O

For those here not familiar with Put options, basically they make money when the stock price falls below a certain price (called the strike price). Like all options, they are extremely risky. The fact that they expire in just 15 days - makes them EXTREMELY risky.

Any guesses as to why??

I'll put out a few:

A) announcement of major dilution (selling of shares in the open market)
B) announcement of massive losses/cash drain (beyond already expected losses)
C) product delays
D) all of the above
E) other


My gut is going A & B as the driver. They may attempt to sell stock in the open market before earnings release.


Very well PUT, I will say! :lol: 

The jump in puts is usually about the time that the vultures start circling. AMD paid $5.61B for ATI. A $10 share price puts their market cap at almost exactly that number. This is getting far too tasty a morsel for some private equity butcher to pass up. When AMD's bits are worth as much as twice the cap, you can bet your shorts that there's some serious surgery in the immediate future!
April 5, 2007 2:32:44 PM

Quote:


Very well PUT, I will say! :lol: 

The jump in puts is usually about the time that the vultures start circling. AMD paid $5.61B for ATI. A $10 share price puts their market cap at almost exactly that number. This is getting far too tasty a morsel for some private equity butcher to pass up. When AMD's bits are worth as much as twice the cap, you can bet your shorts that there's some serious surgery in the immediate future!


I was looking at those puts a few weeks ago when I think they were selling @ $0.20... didn't have the guts to buy any. I could have resold them by now and almost doubled my money.

I least I got some nice sleep. :lol: 
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