Sign in with
Sign up | Sign in
Your question

ExtremeTech asks, "How can AMD be fixed?"

Last response: in CPUs
Share
April 13, 2007 1:00:51 AM

Over at Extremetech, they have a nice interview with several analysts regarding AMD's future. It was about as upbeat as a real impartial look could be though there were the usual faux pas' you always see in tech analysis by non-techies.

Probably the most interesting quot was the last by Mercury Research.

Quote:
But Peddie and the others maintain that AMD's recent troubles are mainly just a glitch, part of the normal volley between the two companies. So how long will it take for AMD to get back on its feet? Measured in terms of the bottom line, Peddie says it will probably take the company the rest of this year to get everything sorted out in terms of becoming profitable again.

"Intel has succeeded in bloodying AMD's nose," Peddie said. "But it's not a knockout punch, and it sure as hell isn't a killer punch."




Now we hear it from "the horse's mouth" and can leave the doom and gloom out.


Linkage![/quote]
April 13, 2007 1:30:20 AM

lol, "where" do you find these articles?! :lol:  8)
April 13, 2007 1:37:49 AM

Good article... They made it clear that AMDs problems were management related. Bad expansion plans, poor cash flow, and a terrible marketing campaign...

So now that they've solved those problems by replacing all the top management things should turn around!

Who is the new CEO?
Related resources
April 13, 2007 1:48:28 AM

Quote:
Good article... They made it clear that AMDs problems were management related. Bad expansion plans, poor cash flow, and a terrible marketing campaign...

So now that they've solved those problems by replacing all the top management things should turn around!

Who is the new CEO?



That's a slightly obtuse view of the three pages I read. I live in NYC and I see enterprise ads everywhere for Opteron. There is even the infamous ticker in Times Square that boasts how much money is wasted not using Opteron.

The biggest problem was the price drops. I said it about Intel and will say it about AMD. If your chips are selling for less, you're making less. We'll see how Intel's QoQ and YoY numbers look like soon.

Anyway, now hopefully we will stop calling the CH11 police.
April 13, 2007 1:57:34 AM

From the article...

"They really went out and took too much share too quickly – they tried to get too big too fast," he said. "If you look at other major share battles – like Toyota's market share in the U.S. – most companies take it very slowly. They [Toyota] took 10 years to double their share. If AMD had taken the same approach, they might be in a very different position today."

Freedman also sees AMD's current financial woes as directly tied to what he described as a marketing effort that is "defunct and devoid of all logic and reason."

It's good to have OEM presence," McCarron said. "But because the Dell deal came on so quickly, it was disruptive to [AMD's] channel business. AMD pulled product out of the channel, and customers weren't happy. That created an inventory bubble, and that, in turn, led to people not buying as many processors in the first quarter."

Those are all management mistakes. AMD makes awesome chips, and ATi makes awesome GPUs. However when management is making such large fundamental mistakes there is no reason to be optimistic in their future performance.

Rely on the tech, replace the execs!
April 13, 2007 2:04:49 AM

When someone (or in this case some company) screws their best customers (amds long term partners) to go into bed with their enemy (dell) they usually take a long time to forgive them.

So amd is bribing them with ultra low pricing? Will they go back to amd?

AMD multiple mistakes may not be recoverable . can you say IBM-amti = IBMDTI said i b m (pause) d t i
a b à CPUs
April 13, 2007 2:10:05 AM

Who has a name like Peddie? (except Peddie)
April 13, 2007 2:11:46 AM

Uh, yes they are recoverable. AMD's stock price has gone as low as $5 a share, and yet they still exist. The price war has put them deep in the red, but AMD is used to operating in these conditions. Its business as usual.
April 13, 2007 2:12:56 AM

Quote:
Over at Extremetech, they have a nice interview with several analysts regarding AMD's future. It was about as upbeat as a real impartial look could be though there were the usual faux pas' you always see in tech analysis by non-techies.

Probably the most interesting quot was the last by Mercury Research.

But Peddie and the others maintain that AMD's recent troubles are mainly just a glitch, part of the normal volley between the two companies. So how long will it take for AMD to get back on its feet? Measured in terms of the bottom line, Peddie says it will probably take the company the rest of this year to get everything sorted out in terms of becoming profitable again.

"Intel has succeeded in bloodying AMD's nose," Peddie said. "But it's not a knockout punch, and it sure as hell isn't a killer punch."




Now we hear it from "the horse's mouth" and can leave the doom and gloom out.


Linkage![/quote]

This wasn't from mercury research the above comment was from Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie research (whoever he is) and I would harldly call him the horses mouth.

The truth of the matter is that AMD is in the doghouse financially. They tried to do too much too fast and are now paying dearly for it. Cutting capex is not the answer to staying competitive with intel long term. Each process node gets ever more expensive. If you get too far behind on process tech when you are up against intel you are screwed.

Also we can't forget about intel's very agressive upcoming pricecuts. They are already selling their flagship X2 6000 for under $300 and K10 is 2 - 3 quarters too late to save them.

I don't think chapter 11 is definite at this point, but it is a very real possiblity. I say greater than 50% chance they do chapter 11 and recapitalize. At some point if things don't turn soon, it would be in their best interest.
April 13, 2007 2:51:43 AM

love your new avatar :lol: 
April 13, 2007 3:00:34 AM

wats chpt 11?
April 13, 2007 3:06:17 AM

Quote:
wats chpt 11?


It comes after chapter 10... :lol: 

Seriously, it means the company is going bankrupt.

In regards to AMD, K10 can't come soon enough. As long as it's released according to schedule, AMD should be OK. Volume will be low in 07, so I don't expect any miracle turnaround this year. 2008 should be a better year for AMD, unless Intel Penryn outperforms K10 comprehensively, which I doubt. Nehalem, on the other hand...

Theres no stopping for breath in this cutthroat business...
April 13, 2007 3:25:37 AM

Quote:

Those are all management mistakes. AMD makes awesome chips, and ATi makes awesome GPUs. However when management is making such large fundamental mistakes there is no reason to be optimistic in their future performance.

Rely on the tech, replace the execs!


I don´t think so. Comparing the car industry with the computer industry is like comparing the eating habits of a christian farmer and a big town crack junkie. Both are humans, but that´s it.
Growth is one of the most important things for a corporation. I´m quite confident that a car is used at least three times as long as an average CPU - and that´s a pretty conservative estimation. I can buy a 15 year old car and it will do fine. I can´t run a 15 year old CPU though. It won´t do Windows XP and i have my doubts that i can even find a mainboard for it.
Calling AMDs move to grow a mistake is wrong. It was risky so i´d call it a gamble.
April 13, 2007 3:26:53 AM

is Peddy = Mercury?
April 13, 2007 3:40:10 AM

Quote:
When someone (or in this case some company) screws their best customers (amds long term partners) to go into bed with their enemy (dell) they usually take a long time to forgive them.

So amd is bribing them with ultra low pricing? Will they go back to amd?

AMD multiple mistakes may not be recoverable . can you say IBM-amti = IBMDTI said i b m (pause) d t i


Please. AMD never pissed off its other big partners - just retailers. If anything HP was getting the very first shipments (and still is) rather than Dell.
April 13, 2007 4:02:00 AM

Quote:
given the choice of peeving the big guys or the little guys, they chose to make the little guys mad.

In short, they did the very thing that Baron cites as the reason he won't buy Intel... they didn't play nice.

Jack


Some of the things that Intel did years ago was why I first turned to AMD. But AMD has spent much of the last year peeving me off. So who would I buy from now if I didn't want to deal with a company that hasn't peeved me? Cyrix. Some other? Now wait, are they even in business at all anymore?

Though I have some sympathy for AMD and even hope that their next cpu series is good, along with the R600 video card, so I can buy them and feel like I got my money's worth, they need to produce the product. If they keep stalling, it won't just be people like me who loose the faith, but the big OEM's will turn away as well. Trying to sell last years technology in next year's marketplace won't work.
April 13, 2007 4:09:22 AM

My guess is that there would be a host of large corporations that would donate to AMD to keep them afloat. Not only that, but it's likely a court would make the decision to try to protect AMD as well despite their sinking ship, just to avoid having Intel as a free-running king. An investment in the processor competition would be worth a multi-billion dollar corp's while to keep Intel from raising prices. Don't forget that for a company that runs thousands of processors, it's worth it to replace them every few years, regardless of cost - just to keep energy costs down. Running processors that use a lot of energy and produce a lot of heat costs a fortune, both to run them and to cool them (air conditioning), so if the processor manufacturing becomes monopolized it's not just bad news for us who buy one...but bad for those big companies that buy thousands too. They won't want to pay twice as much per proc just because there's no competition for Intel. I'm not saying that companies would come out of the woodwork and invest in AMD, I'm saying it COULD happen.

Plus, there's a ton of guesstimation as to what AMD has brewing, and how they'll fare. For the average home user who doesn't own AMD stock, it doesn't matter all that much. Once quad and eight cores hit the shelves at under a grand, we'll be good for awhile anyway.
April 13, 2007 4:46:02 AM

Quote:
This wasn't from mercury research the above comment was from Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie research (whoever he is) and I would harldly call him the horses mouth.

The truth of the matter is that AMD is in the doghouse financially. They tried to do too much too fast and are now paying dearly for it. Cutting capex is not the answer to staying competitive with intel long term. Each process node gets ever more expensive. If you get too far behind on process tech when you are up against intel you are screwed.

Also we can't forget about intel's very agressive upcoming pricecuts. They are already selling their flagship X2 6000 for under $300 and K10 is 2 - 3 quarters too late to save them.

I don't think chapter 11 is definite at this point, but it is a very real possiblity. I say greater than 50% chance they do chapter 11 and recapitalize. At some point if things don't turn soon, it would be in their best interest.



i think your avatar symbolizes your desire to bait and not DEBATE. Peddie works for Mercury Research. Are you obtuse and lacking in reading skills? It was only 3 pages.


I mean I even HIGHLIGHTED their opinion about CH11.

I guess DOOM and GLOOM is all you can muster.
April 13, 2007 5:07:52 AM

Quote:
I don't think chapter 11 is definite at this point, but it is a very real possiblity. I say greater than 50% chance they do chapter 11 and recapitalize. At some point if things don't turn soon, it would be in their best interest.


People always throw around the concept of declaring bankruptcy like it's something a company can do on a whim - "hey, let's declare bankruptcy and stop paying our creditors - that will make our cash flow problems disappear". It should be pretty obvious to everyone that the board of directors of a company actually has duties to the current shareholders - the question isn't "would bankruptcy be good for amd", it's "is there no way for AMD to avoid going bankrupt". Directors can't simply chose to screw current shareholders - they have to be forced to do it as a result of a lack of alternatives. Unless you honestly believe that AMD can't raise capital at any price there is no way you can believe that there is a greater than 50% chance of AMD going bankrupt. Obviously shareholders would prefer a dilutive equity issuance to being wiped out in bankruptcy - there are clearly investors that would buy equity at a low price. Unless Barcelona is a total dog, talks of bankruptcy are at least a couple of years premature (probably a couple of years premature even if it is a dog).

Quote:
My guess is that there would be a host of large corporations that would donate to AMD to keep them afloat. Not only that, but it's likely a court would make the decision to try to protect AMD as well despite their sinking ship, just to avoid having Intel as a free-running king. An investment in the processor competition would be worth a multi-billion dollar corp's while to keep Intel from raising prices.


There are no large corporations that will "donate" to AMD. That sort of move is totally unprecedented and would lead to all sorts of shareholder suits against the Company making the donation. There might be large corporations willing to invest in AMD- no way to know that although it wouldn't be that surprising. No court will enter a decision to try to protect AMD just to stop Intel from being a free-running king - the law simply does not work that way. Antitrust laws exist to ensure fair competition but they don't artificially buoy one competitor just to stop another competitor from knocking them out - if AMD disappeared and Intel was eventually shown to be a monopoly the legal antitrust remedy would be to break Intel apart (note that even with AMD gone this wouldn't be likely for a variety of reasons).
April 13, 2007 5:52:54 AM

Quote:



i think your avatar symbolizes your desire to bait and not DEBATE. Peddie works for Mercury Research. Are you obtuse and lacking in reading skills? It was only 3 pages.


I mean I even HIGHLIGHTED their opinion about CH11.

I guess DOOM and GLOOM is all you can muster.


Before attempting to flame my reading comprehension, you probably better go back and read the article again yourself.

There were several analysts quoted in the article. They are as follows:

Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie Research
Joe Osha of Merrill Lynch
Dean McCarron of Mercury Research
Doug Freedman of American Technology Research

Jon Peddie made the comment you quoted.

When I see that balance sheet on earnings release day, I will be happy to discuss it with you so that you may understand that AMD does indeed have some very real financial problems.
April 13, 2007 5:57:05 AM

ahh... i tink i get it now!! ^^ thx


but that should be good for the company right? just not for the share holders.
April 13, 2007 5:59:02 AM

Quote:
--- it is essentially selling an eskimo a popsickle, then offering up a heated wool coat.


if the popsicle is tasty, they'll probably buy it.
April 13, 2007 6:18:50 AM

Quote:


Shakiraboob believes Intel will go BK in Q2 of 2008 --- but I don't see how that can happen when Intel continues to operate in the black. However, BK in Q2 2008 for AMD is not outside the realm of possibility -- I always laugh at this ... oh, the irony. ;) 

Jack


I find it very funny that we are now 2 quarters past where he predicted "massive operating losses for intel" yet he does not revise this 2Q '08 prediction. The anticipation is already building for me to see how he reacts when 2Q '08 comes and goes and intel is still with us.

Or better yet if AMD has to file bankruptcy,
It would be interesting to see how he would spin that one.
April 13, 2007 6:43:16 AM

Quote:


Shakiraboob believes Intel will go BK in Q2 of 2008 --- but I don't see how that can happen when Intel continues to operate in the black. However, BK in Q2 2008 for AMD is not outside the realm of possibility -- I always laugh at this ... oh, the irony. ;) 

Jack


I find it very funny that we are now 2 quarters past where he predicted "massive operating losses for intel" yet he does not revise this 2Q '08 prediction. The anticipation is already building for me to see how he reacts when 2Q '08 comes and goes and intel is still with us.

Or better yet if AMD has to file bankruptcy,
It would be interesting to see how he would spin that one.

LOL, I like the part where he says ALL C2Ds will be under $100 once K10 is released. :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol: 
April 13, 2007 12:50:27 PM

Quote:

Those are all management mistakes. AMD makes awesome chips, and ATi makes awesome GPUs. However when management is making such large fundamental mistakes there is no reason to be optimistic in their future performance.

Rely on the tech, replace the execs!


I don´t think so. Comparing the car industry with the computer industry is like comparing the eating habits of a christian farmer and a big town crack junkie. Both are humans, but that´s it.
Growth is one of the most important things for a corporation. I´m quite confident that a car is used at least three times as long as an average CPU - and that´s a pretty conservative estimation. I can buy a 15 year old car and it will do fine. I can´t run a 15 year old CPU though. It won´t do Windows XP and i have my doubts that i can even find a mainboard for it.
Calling AMDs move to grow a mistake is wrong. It was risky so i´d call it a gamble.

I don't understand your reference to the automobile industry. I never made mention of it...

Anyways, the growth that you called risky was actually foolish. Alongside the other fundamental mistakes they made, this should cost the top brass their jobs. No, if they had only made one mistake, they should not lose their jobs, but making three major mistakes and possibly permanently hurting the company should lead to dismissal.

Read the article, the analysts are clear on what mistakes AMD made and most, if not all, of these could have been prevented.
April 13, 2007 1:18:27 PM

Nice article Baron... love reading all the angles.

Unfortunately, this article is just a cut & paste job for the most part. They basically just took snippets from already posted analyst commentary.

A few points, that I completely agree with and have stated before:

1) AMD is overextended... trying to compete with Intel (and now Nvidia) on all fronts. Be everything to everyone. This is just folly at this time.

2) AMD needs to secure external capital to make it through Q4. The internal $$ cuts will likely not be enough. Possible alternatives for AMD will be to slash margins even further and flood the market with ubber cheap CPUs.

Short term - generates cash, long term - you undercut your own future demand for new products. Also, it's too easy for Intel to respond in kind.

Also look for them to start prolonging payments to vendors (e.g. accounts payables)... a classic tactic to conserve cash.
April 13, 2007 1:30:09 PM

Quote:
Also look for them to start prolonging payments to vendors (e.g. accounts payables)... a classic tactic to conserve cash.


That would be a good strategy. The investors would be in a better situation to receive money owed to them, rather than AMD having to file for BK.

I would be curious to see if there is any room for movement with the financiers to adjust or delay some payments.
April 13, 2007 1:55:16 PM

Quote:
Nice article Baron... love reading all the angles.

Unfortunately, this article is just a cut & paste job for the most part. They basically just took snippets from already posted analyst commentary.

A few points, that I completely agree with and have stated before:

1) AMD is overextended... trying to compete with Intel (and now Nvidia) on all fronts. Be everything to everyone. This is just folly at this time.

2) AMD needs to secure external capital to make it through Q4. The internal $$ cuts will likely not be enough. Possible alternatives for AMD will be to slash margins even further and flood the market with ubber cheap CPUs.

Short term - generates cash, long term - you undercut your own future demand for new products. Also, it's too easy for Intel to respond in kind.

Also look for them to start prolonging payments to vendors (e.g. accounts payables)... a classic tactic to conserve cash.




You guys should all go and join Bear-Stearns. You're wasting your financial acumen here.

Even Mercury Research knows less about the industry than Forum members.
8O
April 13, 2007 2:00:17 PM

Quote:


i think your avatar symbolizes your desire to bait and not DEBATE. Peddie works for Mercury Research. Are you obtuse and lacking in reading skills? It was only 3 pages.

I found it a little funny.

Quote:

I mean I even HIGHLIGHTED their opinion about CH11.

I guess DOOM and GLOOM is all you can muster.


You highlighted no such thing.... you highlighted:

Quote:
"Intel has succeeded in bloodying AMD's nose," Peddie said. "But it's not a knockout punch, and it sure as hell isn't a killer punch."


No where in the highlighted text does Peddie mention Chapter 11 either averting it or heading for it.

Chapter 11 is specifically used so a company is not killed. It is an option available to AMD (and more importantly, their creditors) for salvaging disaster and remaining in business.

You have a problem with reading comprehension and plays into your modus operandi of selectively quoting what you like as opposed to reality.

jack


So the term "Knockout Punch" and "Killer Punch" don't refer to such things. How can you be so sickening? You're like this big silly kid who has to be the center of the world and will do any manner of lowdown thing if anyone threatens it.

Too bad, but I hear there are therapists who specialize in that kind of thing.
April 13, 2007 3:34:48 PM

Quote:


You guys should all go and join Bear-Stearns. You're wasting your financial acumen here.

Even Mercury Research knows less about the industry than Forum members.
8O


Ahh... John Peddie... research analyst & your current hero. Let's take a few of his other quotes:

June 2006
Quote:

Since I didn’t go to Computex this year, I had the benefit of a cooler head and the distance of reason, and so I’m utterly convinced AMD will not buy ATI.
:roll:


Mar 2007
Quote:
Mr. Peddie sees Intel playing catch-up in two markets: ultra-mobile PCs and highly integrated chips. “Even though they are arriving late, I fully expect them to become exceedingly dominant in this category,” he said. “Intel right now can be declared the leader in micro-miniaturization of transistor technology.”




http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=21844
http://www.jonpeddie.com/Back_Pages/2006/06-19-06_smoke.shtml
April 14, 2007 12:05:22 AM

Quote:


You guys should all go and join Bear-Stearns. You're wasting your financial acumen here.

Even Mercury Research knows less about the industry than Forum members.
8O


Ahh... John Peddie... research analyst & your current hero. Let's take a few of his other quotes:

June 2006
Quote:

Since I didn’t go to Computex this year, I had the benefit of a cooler head and the distance of reason, and so I’m utterly convinced AMD will not buy ATI.
:roll:


Mar 2007
Quote:
Mr. Peddie sees Intel playing catch-up in two markets: ultra-mobile PCs and highly integrated chips. “Even though they are arriving late, I fully expect them to become exceedingly dominant in this category,” he said. “Intel right now can be declared the leader in micro-miniaturization of transistor technology.”




http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=21844
http://www.jonpeddie.com/Back_Pages/2006/06-19-06_smoke.shtml


Predictions aren't the same as market acumen. Not that it matters but I didn't think they would do it either but it got them into the Top 10 semi list.

I would think that they would thereby be in a position to weather a storm not as bad market share and revenue wise as 2001.

Betting on K10 and R600 being flops is like saying the next Lamborghini won't be better than the current one. That's what they do. And with a modicum of resources compared to Intel. K8 is proof of that.
a b à CPUs
April 14, 2007 12:26:52 AM

Quote:
This wasn't from mercury research the above comment was from Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie research (whoever he is) and I would harldly call him the horses mouth.

The truth of the matter is that AMD is in the doghouse financially. They tried to do too much too fast and are now paying dearly for it. Cutting capex is not the answer to staying competitive with intel long term. Each process node gets ever more expensive. If you get too far behind on process tech when you are up against intel you are screwed.

Also we can't forget about intel's very agressive upcoming pricecuts. They are already selling their flagship X2 6000 for under $300 and K10 is 2 - 3 quarters too late to save them.

I don't think chapter 11 is definite at this point, but it is a very real possiblity. I say greater than 50% chance they do chapter 11 and recapitalize. At some point if things don't turn soon, it would be in their best interest.



i think your avatar symbolizes your desire to bait and not DEBATE. Peddie works for Mercury Research. Are you obtuse and lacking in reading skills? It was only 3 pages.


I mean I even HIGHLIGHTED their opinion about CH11.

I guess DOOM and GLOOM is all you can muster.

Jogn Peddie does not work for Mercury Research.

John Peddie Research

Small unknown business.
April 14, 2007 12:57:20 AM

Quote:
This wasn't from mercury research the above comment was from Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie research (whoever he is) and I would harldly call him the horses mouth.

The truth of the matter is that AMD is in the doghouse financially. They tried to do too much too fast and are now paying dearly for it. Cutting capex is not the answer to staying competitive with intel long term. Each process node gets ever more expensive. If you get too far behind on process tech when you are up against intel you are screwed.

Also we can't forget about intel's very agressive upcoming pricecuts. They are already selling their flagship X2 6000 for under $300 and K10 is 2 - 3 quarters too late to save them.

I don't think chapter 11 is definite at this point, but it is a very real possiblity. I say greater than 50% chance they do chapter 11 and recapitalize. At some point if things don't turn soon, it would be in their best interest.



i think your avatar symbolizes your desire to bait and not DEBATE. Peddie works for Mercury Research. Are you obtuse and lacking in reading skills? It was only 3 pages.


I mean I even HIGHLIGHTED their opinion about CH11.

I guess DOOM and GLOOM is all you can muster.

Jogn Peddie does not work for Mercury Research.

John Peddie Research

Small unknown business.

Small unknown businesses do not get interviewed for major online publications.


I guess I have to say I'm spreading FUD rather than reading about too much of this stuff along with my other 3 jobs. I don't know why I hear his name along with Mercury Research.

Quote:
Dr. Jon Peddie has been active in the graphics and multimedia fields for more than 30 years. Jon Peddie Research is a technically oriented multimedia and graphics research and consulting firm. Based in Tiburon, California, JPR provides consulting, research, and other specialized services to technology companies, including graphics development, multimedia for professional applications and consumer electronics, high-end computing, and Internet-access product development. Jon Peddie's Market Watch and First Look are quarterly reports focused on the market activity of PC graphics controllers for mobile and desktop computing.



Damn, ExtremeTech for even including him. You can't trust anybody.
:twisted:
April 14, 2007 2:11:58 AM

Quote:



You guys should all go and join Bear-Stearns. You're wasting your financial acumen here.

Even Mercury Research knows less about the industry than Forum members.
8O


Even though you're attempting to be facetiuos, you are probably correct. I would say a good number of people in here know more about the industry than some guy who goes to work at 9 in the AM, reads a few reports on some product/line, plays with his calculator, scribbles of a quick article, then goes golfing with the boss at noon.

BTW, arent you the one who lambastes any analysts who are negative about AMD?

Is that the metric by which you test an analysists competency? Bullish on AMD..hes OK, Bearish on AMD...hes clueless?
April 14, 2007 2:25:02 AM

AMD needs to sell some stock this will lower the price but it will raise capital - they are hoping that the banks will cover their capital drain.

As they change over to 65nm parts their costs will go down,

selling some stock would be a good move, or some nice highe end bonds - the ones that convert to stock would sell nicely. convertible preferred shares would also sell well.

in the end amd will be fine - the problem is they are a bargain like their chips and someone (say ibm) would buy them for the sales chain for their market. getting ati with amds marker share would be a good investment for an ibm.

Can you say ibmdti say ibm pause dti or Bamti


Quote:
Yeah, I don't think he liked Cramer's take:

'Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD - News): 'I've got to take the extraordinary step of pressing every single bad button there is! Sell, sell, sell! The house of pain... There is no reason for AMD to live! It has no purpose! It has nothing going for it! If you're in AMD, I give you permission right now to leave, and sell that stock!'


cramers claim to fame is 24% track record - made mostly off intel

you could have beat cramer by taking your money out of the bank 3 years ago after sat for 7 years and buying google. or shorting the big nasdeq fav's like cmgi at $150 that $1

cramer is good but hes no different then any other tv person or investor guru if he really new how to make money he make money for living and not give advice and have website and a tv program!
a b à CPUs
April 14, 2007 2:39:47 AM

Quote:
This wasn't from mercury research the above comment was from Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie research (whoever he is) and I would harldly call him the horses mouth.

The truth of the matter is that AMD is in the doghouse financially. They tried to do too much too fast and are now paying dearly for it. Cutting capex is not the answer to staying competitive with intel long term. Each process node gets ever more expensive. If you get too far behind on process tech when you are up against intel you are screwed.

Also we can't forget about intel's very agressive upcoming pricecuts. They are already selling their flagship X2 6000 for under $300 and K10 is 2 - 3 quarters too late to save them.

I don't think chapter 11 is definite at this point, but it is a very real possiblity. I say greater than 50% chance they do chapter 11 and recapitalize. At some point if things don't turn soon, it would be in their best interest.



i think your avatar symbolizes your desire to bait and not DEBATE. Peddie works for Mercury Research. Are you obtuse and lacking in reading skills? It was only 3 pages.


I mean I even HIGHLIGHTED their opinion about CH11.

I guess DOOM and GLOOM is all you can muster.

Jogn Peddie does not work for Mercury Research.

John Peddie Research

Small unknown business.

Small unknown businesses do not get interviewed for major online publications.


I guess I have to say I'm spreading FUD rather than reading about too much of this stuff along with my other 3 jobs. I don't know why I hear his name along with Mercury Research.

Quote:
Dr. Jon Peddie has been active in the graphics and multimedia fields for more than 30 years. Jon Peddie Research is a technically oriented multimedia and graphics research and consulting firm. Based in Tiburon, California, JPR provides consulting, research, and other specialized services to technology companies, including graphics development, multimedia for professional applications and consumer electronics, high-end computing, and Internet-access product development. Jon Peddie's Market Watch and First Look are quarterly reports focused on the market activity of PC graphics controllers for mobile and desktop computing.



Damn, ExtremeTech for even including him. You can't trust anybody.
:twisted:

It's a small personal business. Not a big name like Mercury research. Also his views tend to ALWAYS be pro-AMD and he's ALWAYS wrong.
April 14, 2007 3:24:23 AM

Quote:


I don't understand your reference to the automobile industry. I never made mention of it...


That´s wrong. In your original post you quoted:

Quote:
"They really went out and took too much share too quickly – they tried to get too big too fast," he said. "If you look at other major share battles – like Toyota's market share in the U.S. – most companies take it very slowly. They [Toyota] took 10 years to double their share. If AMD had taken the same approach, they might be in a very different position today."


Quote:

Anyways, the growth that you called risky was actually foolish. Alongside the other fundamental mistakes they made, this should cost the top brass their jobs. No, if they had only made one mistake, they should not lose their jobs, but making three major mistakes and possibly permanently hurting the company should lead to dismissal.

Read the article, the analysts are clear on what mistakes AMD made and most, if not all, of these could have been prevented.


Most things could´ve been prevented. In hindsight. Apart from the total lack of marketing i don´t really see any grave mistakes.
April 14, 2007 11:14:56 AM

Quote:
Hey Baron --

What gives?
http://www.pricegrabber.com/p__AMD_Athlon_64_FX_60_Dual...

How can they get away with this, a 6000+ is only $239


Its all part of Richard's master plan. They are going to force Intel to collapse by making Ortellini laugh himself to death.


Honestly though, I still stand by the notion that AMD is doing what it believes it has to, to to hold on to marketshare. The question is: will it be enough after the 22nd?
April 14, 2007 11:37:43 AM

Quote:
there will be no chapter 11
amd will be bought out before that could happen
unless they screw up and are not allowed on the stock market anymore
You mean if Intel pulls some strings, and has them ejected from Wall Street? :D 
April 14, 2007 1:45:23 PM

Quote:
Hey Baron --

What gives?
http://www.pricegrabber.com/p__AMD_Athlon_64_FX_60_Dual...

How can they get away with this, a 6000+ is only $239



I guess the extra $150 is for the unlocked multiplier.

I've seen a few on your posts here faming Intel for keeping the price of the Pentium Extreme Edition 965 at $900. But now, you've just explained, perfectly, the reason behind Intel's decision.

I think that's what JJ wants you to see.
April 14, 2007 2:03:42 PM

Quote:



You guys should all go and join Bear-Stearns. You're wasting your financial acumen here.

Even Mercury Research knows less about the industry than Forum members.
8O


Even though you're attempting to be facetiuos, you are probably correct. I would say a good number of people in here know more about the industry than some guy who goes to work at 9 in the AM, reads a few reports on some product/line, plays with his calculator, scribbles of a quick article, then goes golfing with the boss at noon.

BTW, arent you the one who lambastes any analysts who are negative about AMD?

Is that the metric by which you test an analysists competency? Bullish on AMD..hes OK, Bearish on AMD...hes clueless?


I base it on whether or not it's reasonable. If they say something negative that is true, then that's it, but too many analysts base their words on Intel not AMD.
April 14, 2007 2:05:20 PM

Quote:
Hey Baron --

What gives?
http://www.pricegrabber.com/p__AMD_Athlon_64_FX_60_Dual...

How can they get away with this, a 6000+ is only $239



I guess the extra $150 is for the unlocked multiplier.

I've seen a few on your posts here faming Intel for keeping the price of the Pentium Extreme Edition 965 at $900. But now, you've just explained, perfectly, the reason behind Intel's decision.

I think that's what JJ wants you to see.


But the perf difference between 6000+ and FX62 is much smaller than E6600 and 965EE while the price difference is much greater.
April 14, 2007 2:56:37 PM

Does anyone want a 965EE? Then what are you babbling about?
April 14, 2007 2:58:23 PM

Quote:
Does anyone want a 965EE? Then what are you babbling about?
He's gotta feed that ego. It's got a ravenous appetite. :wink:
April 14, 2007 3:05:32 PM

Quote:
Most things could´ve been prevented. In hindsight. Apart from the total lack of marketing i don´t really see any grave mistakes.


Yes, you could have prevented all of this. The growth was a mistake. The OEM contracts were a mistake, marketing was a mistake.

This is what GOOD CEO's do. That's what good companies do. AMD needs to replace the execs, they have crippled AMD. NO ONE in their right mind is buying AMD stock right now.

As for the car industry... I apologize, I thought I used that analogy in another thread. Anyhow, I think that it still stands. You simply can't try to crush a competitor that is far larger than you and has much much more experience. You need to build credibility by making quality products and smart business decisions, and AMD failed to do the latter...
April 14, 2007 3:16:32 PM

Quote:



But the perf difference between 6000+ and FX62 is much smaller than E6600 and 965EE while the price difference is much greater.


Same old 965EE argument, eh? FYI newegg has not gotten these back in stock since they ran out several months ago.
April 14, 2007 3:54:53 PM

Quote:
Hey Baron --

What gives?
http://www.pricegrabber.com/p__AMD_Athlon_64_FX_60_Dual...

How can they get away with this, a 6000+ is only $239



I guess the extra $150 is for the unlocked multiplier.

And that is a thing that really gripes me. It also doesn't matter whether its AMD making a cpu or Intel. When the internal construction of different numbered cpus is the same, with only the multiplier changed, then the cost to the company is also the same, so the company (AMD in this case) is ripping off the customer. Show me real differences in the various chips, transistor counts, cache sizes, etc, and I can understand and put up with price differences. When the price difference is only based on the multiplier, I only see the rip off of the unknowing consumer, which includes myself at one time.
April 14, 2007 6:44:54 PM

You're forgetting about the binning. Higher binned chips have more potential, and can withstand harder working conditions. Look at the 30XX Xeons compared to the counterpart E6X00 Core 2's. Technically they are the same chip, but the Xeon is often $20 - 50 more. You pay, not only for the name, but for the binning. The Xeons 30X0 will withstand more than a similar Core 2.
!