Sign in with
Sign up | Sign in
Your question

Can this all possibly be true?

Last response: in CPUs
Share
April 18, 2007 6:06:30 AM

AMD has lost 1/3 of it's market share?

AMD may have lost almost one third of its market share in Q1, says iSuppli

http://www.tgdaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&tas...

AMD has slashed it's prices by almost half

AMD CPU Prices drop nearly 50% over past half year

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/31621/137/

Intel Profits rise 19%

Intel’s profits climb 19% in Q1

http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/31660/118/

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Can it REALLY be this bad for AMD?

Losing 1/3 of your market share while cutting prices in half is not "in trouble" that is very close to freefall.

Comments - cast it all in a better light?

Leaked Barcelona Benchmarks?

More about : possibly true

April 18, 2007 6:30:38 AM

Amd is doing exactly what it has to to stay afloat for the next several months until their new core comes out as well as their IGP.Bill Gates didn't make as much money for a couple years as he would have liked,not to mention some losses in the mass production and server classes.He is trying to punish AMD for being so upstart with their products.Besides,bill can't stand having competition.

Dahak

AMD X2-4400+@2.6 TOLEDO
EVGA NF4 SLI MB
2X EVGA 7950GT KO IN SLI
4X 512MB CRUCIAL BALLISTIX DDR500
WD300GIG HD/SAMSUNG 250GIG HD
ACER 22IN WIDESCREEN LCD 1600X1200
THERMALTAKE TOUGHPOWER 850WATT PSU
COOLERMASTER MINI R120
3DMARK05 13,471
April 18, 2007 7:14:19 AM

If this is true then virtually ALL the financial problems at AMD are at the CPU divison. Ati has always been a break-even company, posting small losses or profits, I don't really see why that would have changed now. Certainly, G80 would have hurt them in high end, but the majority of sales are in the low to mid range where Ati is still quite competitive.

If Ati had Q1 sales of around $500m, that would mean CPU sales are down to about $725m for AMD. That's a scary prospect. :( 
Related resources
April 18, 2007 7:25:45 AM

Its always darkest just before dawn. This is AMDs "dark before dawn", when Intel goes CH11 :wink:
April 18, 2007 7:59:16 AM

Quote:
Bill Gates didn't make as much money for a couple years as he would have liked,not to mention some losses in the mass production and server classes.He is trying to punish AMD for being so upstart with their products.Besides,bill can't stand having competition.



What?
April 18, 2007 8:00:38 AM

I suspect the $1.25B may refer to AMD without Ati. If not, the first quarter would be the worst one Amd has seen in a decade.
April 18, 2007 4:29:50 PM

Quote:
I suspect the $1.25B may refer to AMD without Ati. If not, the first quarter would be the worst one Amd has seen in a decade.


You would suspect wrong the $1.25B projection is with ATI which is why the the phrase "chapter 11" is flying around the board it really is that bad and expected to get worse in Q2.
April 18, 2007 4:35:14 PM

Quote:
Bill Gates didn't make as much money for a couple years as he would have liked,not to mention some losses in the mass production and server classes.He is trying to punish AMD for being so upstart with their products.Besides,bill can't stand having competition.



What?

Exactly!! WHAT?? An Xbox server?
April 18, 2007 4:41:05 PM

O please more talk about a bankruptcy give it a rest its not going anywhere near chap11
why is when stocks go down people panic and say chap11 bla bla
they said the same to so many stocks like amazon when it was $14 or ford or GM or a hundreds of others. Its very rare to see a big strong stock from the dow nasdaq or s&p go under. AMD even more so cause there are only TWO main cpu companies in this know galaxy.

heres a thought AMD is up 450% from 4-5 years ago thats good isnt it?
cup half empty or half full.
April 18, 2007 4:55:06 PM

You've already stated that you don't understand the economic market.

You're relying simply on the belief that AMD has been down before so they will rebound from this, right?
April 18, 2007 5:05:19 PM

This is not the same AMD of 5 years ago they took on a huge debt with ATI under very restrictive loan covenants and are running low on cash. Failure of AMD will not happen immediately but is possible in 2008 due to lack of cash.
April 18, 2007 5:06:20 PM

Quote:
O please more talk about a bankruptcy give it a rest its not going anywhere near chap11
why is when stocks go down people panic and say chap11 bla bla
they said the same to so many stocks like amazon when it was $14 or ford or GM or a hundreds of others. Its very rare to see a big strong stock from the dow nasdaq or s&p go under. AMD even more so cause there are only TWO main cpu companies in this know galaxy.

heres a thought AMD is up 450% from 4-5 years ago thats good isnt it?
cup half empty or half full.


There is bankruptcy talk about AMD because they might lose somewhere near $500Million this quarter and they only had $1.5Billion at the end of the year. Further, their financing options are very poor because of the terms of the loans used to acquire ATi. Realistically, AMD isn't going to be able to improve the situation in 2008 with microprocessors, and ATi has a yearly revenue of ~1.3Billion. It doesn't look good for AMD. They might end up filing for bankruptcy.

At the end of 2001, AMD sold for $19 a share. I know, because I sold AMD in December of 2001 after buying post-911. Picking a low point and saying they are up is dis-ingenuous to say the least.

AMD is in serious trouble. They may or may not get out of it. We shall see.
April 18, 2007 5:20:57 PM

Quote:
Bill Gates didn't make as much money for a couple years as he would have liked,not to mention some losses in the mass production and server classes.He is trying to punish AMD for being so upstart with their products.Besides,bill can't stand having competition.



What?

My thought exactly. Guys, if you don't even know what company Bill Gates leads or who leads Intel or what these companies make then why the heck are you polluting the forum with these messages? AMD and Microsoft do not compete with each other, at least not in any important way. AMD competes mostly with Intel and NVidia, while Microsoft would be in extremely deep trouble if AMD and Intel were to disappear today.

BTW, where do you get this "can't stand having competition"? What kind of cretin would enjoy having competition and want more of it??? Bill is perfectly right to do whatever he can to his competition, it's not like they're nicer to him. Oh, and Bill Gates hasn't been in charge at Microsoft for years, the CEO is Steve Ballmer.
April 18, 2007 6:06:58 PM

Sounds like AMD has Intel right where they want them. AMD has everyone fooled into thinking things aren't good right now. Soon, they will turn around and blow Intel out of the water!


Yes, I'm being sarcastic here :wink:
April 18, 2007 6:14:21 PM

Quote:
You've already stated that you don't understand the economic market.
You're relying simply on the belief that AMD has been down before so they will rebound from this, right?


OK first can u find me that quote......NO cause i didnt say that i said
"i gave up trying to understand the markets"
in the context off shares can go up on bad news or down on good news one can never tell how news will affect the share price.
Ive been a day-trader for about 20 years i think i know i little about the economic market.

pt 2.
not really , i take in all the news i see and hear about a company and then try to buy or sell according to what i think will or might happen.
For me it works 95% of the time thats why i was able to retire from my normal job and starting full time trading since my early 30's so i must be doing something right.
Right?

BaldEagle .....................................possibly time will tell

fidgewinkle ...................................yes we will
April 18, 2007 6:22:43 PM

Quote:
If this is true then virtually ALL the financial problems at AMD are at the CPU divison. Ati has always been a break-even company, posting small losses or profits, I don't really see why that would have changed now. Certainly, G80 would have hurt them in high end, but the majority of sales are in the low to mid range where Ati is still quite competitive.

If Ati had Q1 sales of around $500m, that would mean CPU sales are down to about $725m for AMD. That's a scary prospect. :( 


Your math/estimates are about right if you believe the rumor mill...

The Inq pegged the computing division at around 800 million total revenue. Quite the swing from Q1 2006.

This leaves me with one big question. If AMD is in so much trouble, why is their stock shooting up so much today, about .49 so far? Are there a lot of stupid people out there, is there something that we don't know about, or is this caused by computer fed buying programs that are a day late in their actions? It doesn't make much sense to me.

As an aside, I also read today Intel's Penryn benchmarks were released today and they show up to a 22% improvement over the QX 6800. If that proves out, AMD will have an even bigger obstacle to overcome in the future.
April 18, 2007 6:31:19 PM

Sailer

It may be short covering, people who want the stock to go down are now confussed to which way the stock may go after the earnings report. Like most of us :) 
April 18, 2007 6:43:29 PM

Good point. I hadn't considered that. If that's the case, I expect a lot of people lost some money. As to confusion, where is the blind man leading me while my eyes are shut? I don't know where I'm going , but I hope it will be nice.
April 18, 2007 7:05:35 PM

wouldn't amd be worse off if they hadn't aquired ati?

They must have had some idea how good C2D was going to be and realized they couldn't develop their K10 fast enough, once they owned ati and those cool guys that make this awesome stuff started sharing ideas...

they might pushed k10 back because they knew it had to be simply amazing when it hit the market instead of slowly ramping it up...Also i'm sure Ati knows WAY more about DDR3

Also I think intels push to 45nm is driving amd up the wall, it was probably the scariest thing for them...didn't intel have a roadmap saying 45nm would be showing up before Q3? I'm sure they ran into a lot of difficulties and weren't expecting to squish amd so bad so they probably recently realized they need to do more than just transition to 45nm.
April 18, 2007 7:05:57 PM

Quote:
and now it gets worse
anandtech has early benches on penryn and its a monster
http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/intel/showdoc.aspx...


I was reading some of those results earlier. My opinion only, but unless AMD can come up with something very good that at least gives real competition to this, either AMD will survive as a very second rate company at best, or we might be sounding Taps for its demise.

It could be that the ATI video cards will let AMD survive, but they just may make it an attractive takeover for IBM or some other company. I think the future looks very grim indeed.
April 18, 2007 9:03:16 PM

Quote:
Sailer

It may be short covering, people who want the stock to go down are now confussed to which way the stock may go after the earnings report. Like most of us :) 


Excellent point AMD had more shorts than Munchkinland and thats a lot of naked shorts to cover.
April 19, 2007 6:54:59 AM

Quote:
Sailer
It may be short covering, people who want the stock to go down are now confussed to which way the stock may go after the earnings report. Like most of us :) 


Excellent point AMD had more shorts than Munchkinland and thats a lot of naked shorts to cover.
Good 1
As imus once said ........HOE HOE HOE :lol: 

eregular ..........
The ATI acquisition may also be a point of worry for some. I believe it was a good strategic move for AMD, because semiconductor manufacturers have to continue to integrate additional functionality into their chips in order to remain competitive. More so for AMD to be able to penetrate the market for low-cost computers, which will likely provide a big part of growth in the future, it won't be too surprising if it takes awhile to get the two operations running smoothly together.
!