Official AMD Q1 Earnings Thread -

[Twisted_Sister]

Will post all updates/commentary throughout the day on this first post.

THE BOMB HAS LANDED - MASSIVE LOSSES

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/techsemis/10351596.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA



Good article here before earnings... talks about the range of Gross Margin predictions from analysts (personally, I think 30-35% sounds about right...)

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/techfocus/10351275.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Update - 1pm
Analyst Upgrade to buy, with a $19 target. Also keep in mind, the same firm just upgraded Intel as well.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7bAE05963D-F63F-4347-BF50-F042693C5BF5%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

 

[qcmadness]

Will post all updates/commentary throughout the day on this first post.


Good article here before earnings... talks about the range of Gross Margin predictions from analysts (personally, I think 30-35% sounds about right...)http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/techfocus/10351275.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

I would suggest AMD to lose $350-$400M this quarter.

 

[Periander]

At least 400M.

 

[1Tanker]

I wouldn't want to have stock, today. I'd be biting my finger-nails, to the core. Could be a bumpy ride today. :?

 

[Twisted_Sister]

Frankly, I'm less concerned about the "losses"... more concerned about the cash position and burn rate.

 

[sirkillalot]

Show me the money AMD ....
and cpu's and gpu's and a profit and lots of sales that all i ask.

 

[Wombat2]

Baron will definitely not like that pic 8O

Whatever losses AMD posts for Q1 be prepared to double them for Q2.

 

[qcmadness]

Frankly, I'm less concerned about the "losses"... more concerned about the cash position and burn rate.

I will be more concerned with the inventory level.

 

[Twisted_Sister]

Frankly, I'm less concerned about the "losses"... more concerned about the cash position and burn rate.

I will be more concerned with the inventory level.

goes hand and hand... agreed.

 

[JCon]

Will post all updates/commentary throughout the day on this first post.


Good article here before earnings... talks about the range of Gross Margin predictions from analysts (personally, I think 30-35% sounds about right...)

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/newsanalysis/techfocus/10351275.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

See there is their problem... Investing in Zeppelins when they are short of cash. Foolish, I say, foolish!

 

[BaldEagle]

Frankly, I'm less concerned about the "losses"... more concerned about the cash position and burn rate.

I will be more concerned with the inventory level.

I would side with Twisted_Sister cash is the key at the moment. While operating at a loss the on hand cash and burn rate tell us when BK hits high or low inventory comes into figuring the burn rate.

 

[BaronMatrix]

Baron will definitely not like that pic 8O

Whatever losses AMD posts for Q1 be prepared to double them for Q2.


But you deserve no respect. See your sig.

 

[BaronMatrix]

But you deserve no respect. See your sig.

And neither do you. See any of your posts.

However, today, you are about to see real bleeding from the financial perspective.

From The Brood, none is expected. And wouldn't be appreciated. Now in the real world that none of you seem able to handle, I get plenty.

I said that this would happen if AMD kept dropping prices, remember? I also said Intel was maintaining an artificial high on a lot of their products.

 

[1Tanker]

But you deserve no respect. See your sig.

And neither do you. See any of your posts.

However, today, you are about to see real bleeding from the financial perspective.

From The Brood, none is expected. And wouldn't be appreciated. Now in the real world that none of you seem able to handle, I get plenty.

I said that this would happen if AMD kept dropping prices, remember? I also said Intel was maintaining an artificial high on a lot of their products.Don't break your arm, trying to pat yourself on the back. :roll:

 

[Zephyn]

If AMD keeps dropping prices then the "average joe" (Me) will be able to buy some of their stock. I imagine that the stock prices will eventually go back up, they have gone on a roller coaster ride for a long time.

Plus for everyone that thinks AMD needs to crash; just think at how much Intel can jack up their prices and reduce inovation. 8O Intel would = Micro$oft 8O

No matter how much anyone hates AMD; it has to be there and thriving to give us (the consumer) the best benifit from Intel or AMD.

 

[MatrixBaron]

Baron will definitely not like that pic 8O

Whatever losses AMD posts for Q1 be prepared to double them for Q2.

Why wouldn't I like that picture? It's a picture of a Quad FX system, right?

 

[sirkillalot]

AMD on a spike .... $14.22
go baby go

 

[carlhungis]

I wouldn't want to have stock, today. I'd be biting my finger-nails, to the core. Could be a bumpy ride today. :?

Well, so far AMD is up .25 and Intel is down a dime. I love how AMD makes gains on bad news and Intel gets killed even on good news.

 

[wolverinero79]

From The Brood, none is expected. And wouldn't be appreciated. Now in the real world that none of you seem able to handle, I get plenty.

You must know some pretty dumb people.

I said that this would happen if AMD kept dropping prices, remember? I also said Intel was maintaining an artificial high on a lot of their products.

You also said Intel would be damaged by the price war. I guess 1/2 isn't bad...

In baseball, you'd be awesome!

In wafer fabrication yields, you'd be AMD. :lol: I kid, I kid!

 

[1Tanker]

I wouldn't want to have stock, today. I'd be biting my finger-nails, to the core. Could be a bumpy ride today. :?

Well, so far AMD is up .25 and Intel is down a dime. I love how AMD makes gains on bad news and Intel gets killed even on good news.The day isn't over yet.

 

[Twisted_Sister]

I wouldn't want to have stock, today. I'd be biting my finger-nails, to the core. Could be a bumpy ride today. :?

Well, so far AMD is up .25 and Intel is down a dime. I love how AMD makes gains on bad news and Intel gets killed even on good news.The day isn't over yet.

Considering the release will be after the markets close... I'd be more concerned about tomorrow

 

[SuperFly03]

I am betting on a loss less than expected. Volume is up to 14.1M shares... there is some movement going on.

I should probably get to doing some ratios....

 

[sailer]

I wouldn't want to have stock, today. I'd be biting my finger-nails, to the core. Could be a bumpy ride today. :?

Well, so far AMD is up .25 and Intel is down a dime. I love how AMD makes gains on bad news and Intel gets killed even on good news.

And that's a thing that drives me crazy, if I'm not already crazy. About half my stock portfolio is down today, even though the companies are making good to record high profits. AMD is dying and its stock goes up.

What gives? I know, after 40 years of investing I should be used to this, but I never made the adjustment. Whatever happens today, though, tomorrow might see a bloodbath. Then again, maybe people will buy into the AMD/Titanic and be betting they will be among the survivors.

 

[SuperFly03]

GPM will most definitely be below 35%

In a ML report filed yesterday (of which I have immediate access to, as well as real time market data), the Q1 estimate for GP is 33.9%.

Given the movement of the stock and Intel's solid numbers, I would expect GP to hit 35% on the nose, with a slight understatement in operating expenses. I need to see if I can call in to the earnings release.

Earnings release is at 4pm CST, right after the closing bell. I am all reg'd up for the call.

 

[Twisted_Sister]

GPM will most definitely be below 35%

In a ML report filed yesterday (of which I have immediate access to, as well as real time market data), the Q1 estimate for GP is 33.9%.

Given the movement of the stock and Intel's solid numbers, I would expect GP to hit 35% on the nose, with a slight understatement in operating expenses. I need to see if I can call in to the earnings release.

Earnings release is at 4pm CST, right after the closing bell. I am all reg'd up for the call.

Keep in mind, if it hits sub 35%...

That is the average for the QUARTER (Jan is helping the average). I'm sure you could assume current gross margins are 10% below the figure they publish.

They'll use every tactic in the book to report as high of a GM number as possible... their financing (thus future) depends on it.

So expect them, where they can, to realizing revenue earlier and accrue costs later. There are many ways to "legitimately" do this...