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Is Barcelona the swan song for AMD?

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April 21, 2007 12:05:16 AM

Considering that the launch of Barcelona is getting closer, I'm wondering what would happen to AMD if Barcelona doesn't take the performance crown from Intel? What then? This scenario seems like a very distinct possibility considering that Conroe clocks so much higher. If the leaks are true, then 2.3-2.6 GHz is the launch speed for Barcelona. Considering Penryn might launch at 3.6 GHz, Barcelona will be at a 50% speed disadvantage. To be 50% higher IPC sounds highly unlikely. Will AMD go bankrupt if they can't beat Intel? From their financials, it looks like AMD is gambling on having a higher performance part than Intel. They never considered Plan B: What if Intel's chip is faster than ours. Is Barcelona the swan song for this once great company?
April 21, 2007 12:14:26 AM

This would be better probed if posted in the other section...
April 21, 2007 12:19:21 AM

"Probed"? - Very accurate, nice word choice. :wink:
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April 21, 2007 12:20:32 AM

Quote:
Considering that the launch of Barcelona is getting closer, I'm wondering what would happen to AMD if Barcelona doesn't take the performance crown from Intel? What then? This scenario seems like a very distinct possibility considering that Conroe clocks so much higher. If the leaks are true, then 2.3-2.6 GHz is the launch speed for Barcelona. Considering Penryn might launch at 3.6 GHz, Barcelona will be at a 50% speed disadvantage. To be 50% higher IPC sounds highly unlikely. Will AMD go bankrupt if they can't beat Intel? From their financials, it looks like AMD is gambling on having a higher performance part than Intel. They never considered Plan B: What if Intel's chip is faster than ours. Is Barcelona the swan song for this once great company?

well Barcelona is basically the "make or break" for AMD. if Barcelona made it, AMD will be on the way to become larger. but if Barcelona doesn't, well.... at least they can continue to sell Barcelona at unbelievable prices.
April 21, 2007 12:20:33 AM

Remember, Barcelona K10 is a native Quad-Core, their Dual-core derivatives are Half Disabled Quad-Cores. So despite the sales of their Quad-Core Server's and Quad-Cores their Dual-core's with a 2.9Ghz + 40-70% advantage over their current Competitors Clock-for-Clock either Dual-Core or Quad-Core Core2 Duo's. The new K10 Architecture from the Anandtech will be better clock-for-clock than the Core Arc, Only lacking Clock speeds AMD isn't screwed as you may all seem to be indicating, Swan song?? more like Ugly ducking laying golden eggs, just like what the Benchmarks of K7-K8 Engineering Samples saw at first what was first a crappy , lower Clocked CPU, ended up realizing that AMD had gold on their hands, over Netbursters.

Note to AMD Engineers: If you could manage a 1-3% boost in overall CPU arc every few months(every Quarter?), just adjust the printing presses and release a revision every so often, by the end of the year you could manage a 4-12% boost from what you had at the beginning of the year.
April 21, 2007 12:23:31 AM

AMD may have had gold on there hands... it just did not make it to the bank... ;) 
April 21, 2007 12:30:03 AM

Quote:
Remember, Barcelona K10 is a native Quad-Core, their Dual-core derivatives are Half Disabled Quad-Cores. So despite the sales of their Quad-Core Server's and Quad-Cores their Dual-core's with a 2.9Ghz + 40-70% advantage over their current Competitors Clock-for-Clock either Dual-Core or Quad-Core Core2 Duo's. The new K10 Architecture from the Anandtech will be better clock-for-clock than the Core Arc, Only lacking Clock speeds AMD isn't screwed as you may all seem to be indicating, Swan song?? more like Ugly ducking laying golden eggs, just like what the Benchmarks of K7-K8 Engineering Samples saw at first what was first a crappy , lower Clocked CPU, ended up realizing that AMD had gold on their hands, over Netbursters.

Note to AMD Engineers: If you could manage a 1-3% boost in overall CPU arc every few months(every Quarter?), just adjust the printing presses and release a revision every so often, by the end of the year you could manage a 4-12% boost from what you had at the beginning of the year.



The dual core is not a half disabled quad, it's a true dual core with L3.
April 21, 2007 12:37:45 AM

If you guess enough, even a ID10T can get one right once in a while...
April 21, 2007 12:39:22 AM

it is? I've always been informed by MAD(AMD) Enthusiasts that the K10 was a Native Quad-Core(Monolithic) so if you disable 1/2 a Monster you'll also have a Dual-Core right? To get acceptable yield you could disable dysfunctional k10's to Dual cores, and the really screwed up quad-core you could Bin as the Semptron(sempron) that would get you a magnificent yield, not sure how much % of that 1000 lot would be used but it seems like a good idea on Text to me right now<
April 21, 2007 12:41:31 AM

Current X2's are essentially should be same perf as a Barc at same clock but with half of CPU/cache disabled...
But an X2 is an X2, no extra die is disabled...
April 21, 2007 12:47:43 AM

Oh okay, Thanks for the inform Rich, haven't been reading Complete working of K10 or haven't been scaling the Anandtech Article of K10 too hard, since it hasn't shown any performance benchmarks, any performance indicators or anything that would gain my interest into reading what it's so amazing "evolutionary" about K10.
When even a confirmed benchmark comes out and shows it's actual performance, that would spark my interest into reading That Article about why K10 is so much better than Core arc.
April 21, 2007 12:49:55 AM

I imagine a few others are also waiting... It seems that a true AMD fan must be faithful and patient (verry)...
April 21, 2007 1:00:23 AM

Quote:
I imagine a few others are also waiting... It seems that a true AMD fan must be faithful and patient (verry)...



Kinda like the Intel fans during NetBurst, huhn?
April 21, 2007 1:01:35 AM

Well, if AMD asks for patience, and it has something to at least met or exceed our expectations, then I would never mind, as long as something happens, which me and many others hope to get, the fruit of the labours of patience.
This situation can be described as the feeling that a father has of when their child says their first word or first time they walk, something similar of that kind, delays and disappointments are inevitable but eventually they talk and they walk right? I guess AMD's Child is going to be taking its steps on April 22-23rd at best hopes. After that date it doesn't start walking and talking, then it'll have to be checked up by a specialist on what's wrong with it :oops: 
April 21, 2007 1:02:47 AM

just hope it is not deformed, figuratively speaking...
April 21, 2007 1:07:43 AM

Baron just hopes K10 had been genetically mutated to AMD's advantage from his Grandfather K7.. Not with 128-Pen!ses and 4 A$$ses (SouthPark joke)
April 21, 2007 1:28:45 AM

If you guess enough, even a ID10T can get one right once in a while... :lol: 
April 21, 2007 1:38:40 AM

Every rose has its thorn...
April 21, 2007 2:02:53 AM

Quote:
Is Barcelona the swan song for this once great company?


Barcelona could very well turn out like the Voodoo5 5500 video adapter, which was 3dfx's swan song. Very good image quality in 2D and for 3D it brought full screen anti-aliasing to the masses at an acceptable performance hit. Plus it ran Glide. It was better than nVidia's offerings at the time but was launched much too late and the price was high, like $300. I bought one and loved it, the only thing it lacked that the competition had was hardware transform & lighting.

Well, I believe Barcelona will be similar. I believe that it will be a great chip and clock for clock generally faster than Penryn, but too late to the game and at 283 mm2 it will not be able to compete with Penryn on price. AMD will not be able to recoup R&D for this chip. Also any apps updated for SSE4 will have Penryn smoking Barcelona, just like hardware T&L did for nVidia after the Voodoo5 was launched.

So yes, Barcelona could very well be AMD's swan song, at least for the company we know today. It could mark the transition of AMD to a different company, going private (less capital to work with) or going fabless!
April 21, 2007 2:31:15 AM

you know the funny thing is is that everybody assumes that barcelona is the only thing AMD has. The only reason we think AMD might be screwed is because we dont know what it has up its sleeve for the future. We do know what intel has though. AMD has been secretive about barcelona for the longest time, so maybe they want to be secretive about everything else they have. Since we dont have much information on AMD's roadmap for the next few years we assume they dont have anything. Were playing AMD like a fool, AMD is not stupid! They know what they are getting into and they know what they have to do to survive. Its like the whole pentium 4 vs amd64 situation. Intel had nothing for the longest time.... wanna know why? Its because intel was cooking up something good and we now know that as core2duo. Now its AMD's turn.

Although perhaps it might be time to say goodbye, but im not worried yet.
April 21, 2007 2:33:54 AM

Well stockholders would like to know what plans and future they have... If AMD had them, now or a couple of months ago would have been time to lay out a firm plan with upcoming details and expectations on performance with an estimate of when the would regain the performance lead again... even if exaggerated...
April 21, 2007 2:38:19 AM

wouldnt we all want to know? Im sure AMD has its reasons. I think very soon AMD and Intel are going to end up like nvidia and ati, both always at each others throat with nvidia releasing first with its flagship and then ATI releasing 2nd with something better to trump nvidia, and then nvidia answers with its x9xx series and then ATI answers with something else. Its been that way for a long time. I remember waiting anxiously to see what ATI had with its x1000 series.
a b à CPUs
April 21, 2007 2:45:10 AM

Quote:
Is Barcelona the swan song for this once great company?


Barcelona could very well turn out like the Voodoo5 5500 video adapter, which was 3dfx's swan song. Very good image quality in 2D and for 3D it brought full screen anti-aliasing to the masses at an acceptable performance hit. Plus it ran Glide. It was better than nVidia's offerings at the time but was launched much too late and the price was high, like $300. I bought one and loved it, the only thing it lacked that the competition had was hardware transform & lighting.

Well, I believe Barcelona will be similar. I believe that it will be a great chip and clock for clock generally faster than Penryn, but too late to the game and at 283 mm2 it will not be able to compete with Penryn on price. AMD will not be able to recoup R&D for this chip. Also any apps updated for SSE4 will have Penryn smoking Barcelona, just like hardware T&L did for nVidia after the Voodoo5 was launched.

So yes, Barcelona could very well be AMD's swan song, at least for the company we know today. It could mark the transition of AMD to a different company, going private (less capital to work with) or going fabless!

the Voodoo5 5500 was better then the GeForce256 but slower then both the ATi Radeon and Geforce2.
April 21, 2007 10:39:19 AM

Quote:
there wont be an AMD swansong ,just a change of ownership if they dont get their heads out soon. I vote a GE buyout even without GE's permission. :wink:

I just can't understand the enthusiasm of these people repeatedly asking 'Is AMD going down now?!',...'And now?!'... Yes, for one thing only I'd like it to happen; to see these people's faces when they find a $400 price tag on the E4300 and upgrade their PCs every 3-4 years, like they did 10+ years ago.
April 21, 2007 1:33:43 PM

Quote:


The dual core is not a half disabled quad, it's a true dual core with L3.


Wecome back buddy .. we missed you recently :lol: 
April 21, 2007 8:41:53 PM

Quote:
the Voodoo5 5500 was better then the GeForce256 but slower then both the ATi Radeon and Geforce2.


True. Nevertheless, the Voodoo5 provided 3dfx with a brief span of glory before the company folded due to insufficient sales. It was 3dfx's swan song.

Similarly, I feel that Barcelona will enjoy a brief few months of glory before Intel simply begins to drown AMD in a flood of cheap 45-nm quad cores in 2008.
April 22, 2007 1:53:51 AM

Even with barcelona fail but i dont think so, amd is ati also, with their new video card incoming that suppose to kick ass a lots but with no dx10 games yet... Also X2 and C2D are about the same for price / performance, i dont see why people say C2D are by far the best, this is not true at stock speed. A X2 4600 is about equal or better then a e6300.
April 22, 2007 2:57:13 AM

Nice post JumpingJack. But honestly i don't think so a BIG compagny like AMD would lost their money for fun, they have probly more then 100 analyst and etc... They are not that stupid to lose that much money for what ? Continue the war with intel and end up with nothing with more money in the hole ? They must know something that we don't know 8O
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