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AMD's share price and stock news.

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April 24, 2007 12:43:03 PM

Just a thread to talk with other people that trade AMD stock
Well thanks to the: http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1517877....
"Advanced Micro to issue convertible notes worth up to $2.2bn" news the share price dropped to $13.56. Down 3.13%
I got back in @ $13.57 just to hold some incase AMD starts picking up and selling there new cpu's and gpu's well.
Gotta be in to win.
April 24, 2007 1:04:10 PM

I don't know, but I think you may have jumped the gun a bit. I think the rest of the investors haven't really taken the opportunity to show how they feel about AMD's recent move. We'll see how today goes. Good luck
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April 24, 2007 2:34:52 PM

Quote:
carlhungis
thanks its poped a little so far now $13.93 :mrgreen:
Ooops . . . $13.85 now . . .

Just fer sheets and giggles - combined AMD/AMAT financials (in millions):

Cash and Equiv 2,448.6
Accts Rec 3,191.6
Short-Term Debt 327.5
Long-Term Debt 3,876.7
Total Equity 12,751.7
Total Liab&Eqty 22,955.0

Doesn't include the $2.2b
April 24, 2007 2:45:36 PM

can you say $14.11 :) 
April 24, 2007 2:45:50 PM

Good luck with your AMD stock. I don't have the cujones to touch it myself right now.

Just my opinion, but AMD seems alot more like gambling than investing right now. Besides, when I buy a stock, that typically means it is going down for certain. I am convinced I was the kiss of death for 3dfx.
April 24, 2007 2:55:41 PM

thanks

not sure what this means: latest news..
S&P Affirms B CCR On AMD; Sr Unsec Convrt Debt Rated B->AMD
any1?
April 24, 2007 3:34:23 PM

It means they ran the latest data through their computer and got the same result as last month or whenever they ran it last. In short, nothing has changed. A rating of B is not good at all, it means AMD has to pay higher interest rates when borrowing than, say, a city with a rating of A or better. Of course, there are much worse ratings than B.
April 24, 2007 3:39:56 PM

Quote:
thanks

not sure what this means: latest news..
S&P Affirms B CCR On AMD; Sr Unsec Convrt Debt Rated B->AMD
any1?


I believe it means that Standard and Poors has confirmed a B credit rating on AMD, while their unsecured convertable debt is rated as a B minus. Overall, it means that though AMD is not a great stock, its an ok stock. Another way of looking at it is that its not as bad as being rated a C stock.

I do wish I'd gotten up early enough to buy 500 shares at 13.56 and then sell when it got up to 14.12. Would have liked to make a quick $375.
April 24, 2007 3:49:39 PM

dsidious , Sailer
ok thanks

Sailer
yea, well i got 1000 @ $13.57 but i sold a little early still i did ok for a day :) 
now $14.50
April 24, 2007 4:14:43 PM

Quote:
dsidious , Sailer
ok thanks

Sailer
yea, well i got 1000 @ $13.57 but i sold a little early still i did ok for a day :) 
now $14.50


You have big balls. Good job on that call man, I wouldn't have done it.
April 24, 2007 4:27:11 PM

That's how money is made. Of course, that's also how it can be lost if it goes the other way. As Geoffrey De Charny once said, "Risk everything, or gain nothing". To make real money, you have to be willing to risk some real money.
April 24, 2007 4:30:08 PM

Quote:
dsidious , Sailer
ok thanks

Sailer
yea, well i got 1000 @ $13.57 but i sold a little early still i did ok for a day :) 
now $14.50


Damn, I wish I had 13 G's laying around somewhere...

14.50 - 13.57 = .93

.93 * 1000 shares = 930 dollar gain minus commisions

I envy your balls. Please let us know what you end up selling at.
April 24, 2007 6:10:53 PM

TechnologyCoordinator
I sold early, but enough for a cup of coffee and almost a r600 card. 8)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
volume very big today, 112 million shares traded, adverage 20-25 mill
holding $14.61
April 24, 2007 9:12:41 PM

Held on for a win today at 14.57 with 123+M shares traded. An entire week of trading in one day!! Still climbing after hours at 14.64...
April 24, 2007 9:54:18 PM

I've enjoyed watching these forums for months, especially the occasional flames. :)  I bought in last week at $13.30 to hold, am I crazy?
April 24, 2007 9:55:26 PM

no, you just will lose money over the next 6 months :p  :lol: 
April 24, 2007 10:10:10 PM

Quote:
I've enjoyed watching these forums for months, especially the occasional flames. :)  I bought in last week at $13.30 to hold, am I crazy?


depends on the next couple of weeks.

Could depend on the next couple days. From what I see, AMD closed at $14.57, so if you could sell at that price, you'd make $1.27 a share, about a 10.37 % gain in a week. Not bad at all. If the price goes up a bit tomorrow, you could make the percentage gain even larger. Then again, if it dives back toward the 13's after the glamour of the Tunisia show wears off, then you might end up holding a looser.

Whether or not you're crazy to hold onto it is anybody's guess. Myself, I'd sell and take the gain. Then again, I lost a few thousand recently on AMD, so I have a bit of a bad taste in my mouth, so to speak.
April 25, 2007 10:26:45 AM

Quote:
I've enjoyed watching these forums for months, especially the occasional flames. :)  I bought in last week at $13.30 to hold, am I crazy?

MAYBE i dont know you :D 
Im more of a day trader, i can't hold a stock for a long time :(  You may get another $1.00-$2.00 but its getting a little more risky.
One thing is, the dows at a all time high so a correction can come any time around here, and where the market goes so do most stocks.
if you are worried about holding you can always sell half now and lock in your gains so if it goes up more its good, if it goes down you only lose half of what you could off. :wink:
The other thing is theres so much bad news out for AMD yet it keeps going upwards this is a good sign that it will continue.
Dont forget fear and greed drive the market, now we are in a greed period for amd. Profits can be big on AMD from its lows after its massive beating, so ride it to the moon.If you dare. :twisted:

verndewd
Thanks, I love it when a plan comes together.
April 26, 2007 8:29:16 PM

Just in:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/microsoft-beats-estimates-thanks-vista/story.aspx?guid=%7BA3F5ADD3%2DDF40%2D4EB8%2D9355%2DBB643F7EFB6E%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

Wasn't Vista supposed to have those AMD cpu's flying off the shelf.

From the Prudential report on AMD:

Quote:
Their adjusted GAAP EPS/shr estimates for AMD for the next 3 quarters are: ($0.71), ($0.34), ($0.11). So for 2007, this results in a loss of ($1.82)/shr. For 2008, they project a loss of ($0.18)/shr.

They have an $11 target price for the stock.

Here are a couple of interesting quotes from the report:

We estimate that AMD lost almost 600 bps of unit share to Intel during the quarter. On the surface, it looks like Intel may have dealt AMD a knockout punch with its Core 2 Duo platform.
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April 26, 2007 9:34:38 PM

Would that be the same Prudential Securities that had a 12-month target price of $102 a share for Enron stock in December, 2000 ???

:lol: 
April 26, 2007 9:42:49 PM

Quote:
Just in:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/microsoft-beats-estimates-thanks-vista/story.aspx?guid=%7BA3F5ADD3%2DDF40%2D4EB8%2D9355%2DBB643F7EFB6E%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

Wasn't Vista supposed to have those AMD cpu's flying off the shelf.

From the Prudential report on AMD:

Their adjusted GAAP EPS/shr estimates for AMD for the next 3 quarters are: ($0.71), ($0.34), ($0.11). So for 2007, this results in a loss of ($1.82)/shr. For 2008, they project a loss of ($0.18)/shr.

They have an $11 target price for the stock.

Here are a couple of interesting quotes from the report:

We estimate that AMD lost almost 600 bps of unit share to Intel during the quarter. On the surface, it looks like Intel may have dealt AMD a knockout punch with its Core 2 Duo platform.


funny, reading the same news stuff, and getting a different conclusion. the market works on the future, but some analysts will tell folks what was clear months earlier, and already stale, because that's where they operate. It's pretty neat really. You got people trading in the now, the past, the near future, 6 months out, 9 months, 1 yr, and even will get news that months old come out and move a stock *after* news about the future moves a stock. I'm feeling the down (relative to SMH or QQQQ) is over for now.
April 26, 2007 9:51:42 PM

it was at 12 dollars a couple weeks ago...i think...
April 26, 2007 10:02:29 PM

Quote:
...funny, reading the same news stuff, and getting a different conclusion. the market works on the future...


Couldn't agree more. Put in a stop loss to lock in a nice gain and am hoping it continues to climb. Just bought on a hunch that the worst of the bad news was already in the price. Has AMD hit bottom?
April 27, 2007 1:12:46 PM

Quote:
Would that be the same Prudential Securities that had a 12-month target price of $102 a share for Enron stock in December, 2000 ???

:lol: 


Yes it would, I didn't claim they were right just that was their latest on AMD.
April 27, 2007 2:19:11 PM

It is interesting that msft is up a lot because of good Vista sells apparently. Glad I kept that.
April 30, 2007 10:43:58 PM

Dropped below 14 today did the reality of the bond offer and lack of private equity set in?
May 1, 2007 2:27:48 AM

i want to buy AMD stuck if it is under $14,and i plan to hold a long time,one year maybe, is there somebody can help me?
May 1, 2007 3:32:42 AM

A speculative stock like AMD should be a small part of a portfolio for someone that believes in the company enough. Personally, I like to be very diverse, so that would be about 2% for me. But....at the moment I expect the housing dominoes to fall in a big way, and I am not holding *any* speculative type stocks really at all. Only very conservative blue chips. I would not even recommend Intel at the moment. I would not be suprised to see the market head south, and if it does speculative stocks will head down a lot. AMD is a hard case to predict since it is down a lot already, but....AMD and Intel depend heavily on discretionary spending, which dries up in a contracting economy, keep in mind. Intel under it's CEO is extending itself with massive fab building, which only pays off if the world economy grows nicely without serious setback. Intel is vulnerable even to a recession in the US, IMO.
May 1, 2007 11:23:37 AM

babalapia
SO what is you want to know?

AMD 13.82 down 3.49% volume 21 million

BaldEagle . Hard to say but i dought it, markets tanked in the last hour intel also down 1.7%. looks to be just a tech slide.
I would like to see $13.0 again so we can get the head and sholder type chart,(like a double bottom) then for it to start moving up.
May 1, 2007 2:28:38 PM

A comment just now on cnbc I thought was interesting: when businesses don't expect consumer demand to grow, they don't ramp up their production, and right now businesses don't expect growing demand. It's interesting to contrast this to Intel and Intel's plans. Intel is so aggressive in adding manufacturing capacity that it is in danger of significant losses if there is a major slowdown, unless there is a way for it to rapidly reduce costs. I don't know if Intel is able to quickly (in a week or a month) stop it's big capital outlays, but I imagine that would not happen, at least not under it's current ceo. I think the downside risks on INTC are bigger than the upside at the moment (these things are always a guessing game, even when you have a great deal of information).
May 1, 2007 3:03:49 PM

It was down all day yesterday but yes it dropped like a rock the last hour. Tried to start up today and nosed over into a dive again so at the rate it's going you should get your wish by the end of the week.
May 1, 2007 3:26:58 PM

Whoever seemed to be supporting the price at $14 all last week doesn't seem to be there anymore. The price movement over the next 2 weeks will be telling, one way or the other.
May 1, 2007 3:33:30 PM

Quote:
Whoever seemed to be supporting the price at $14 all last week doesn't seem to be there anymore. The price movement over the next 2 weeks will be telling, one way or the other.


I expect that whoever bought last week at 14+ and held is crying now. Last week, I figured a lot of blood might get spilled, and now that appears to be happening. If the stock keeps sinking, we will be seeing prices in the 12's soon.
May 1, 2007 5:47:53 PM

I would expect a bump upward with the R600 release just because they released a new product and get their name in the news. However, based on what benches we have seen the R600 isn't going to be flying off the shelves so it should slide back down toward 12 when the daytraders are done feeding off the bump.
May 1, 2007 8:47:34 PM

Quote:
I would expect a bump upward with the R600 release just because they released a new product and get their name in the news. However, based on what benches we have seen the R600 isn't going to be flying off the shelves so it should slide back down toward 12 when the daytraders are done feeding off the bump.


I bet you that whether the new ati cards fly off the shelves will have a lot more to do with the new games/excitement of games, and the economy, than with the performance of the top card in the series. the profits and important sales happen in the midrange in my understanding.

I would enjoy knowing just what percentage of Nvidia profits come from the 8800gtx. without anything to go on, I'd guess around 4-8%
May 1, 2007 9:42:42 PM

Quote:
I would expect a bump upward with the R600 release just because they released a new product and get their name in the news. However, based on what benches we have seen the R600 isn't going to be flying off the shelves so it should slide back down toward 12 when the daytraders are done feeding off the bump.


I bet you that whether the new ati cards fly off the shelves will have a lot more to do with the new games/excitement of games, and the economy, than with the performance of the top card in the series. the profits and important sales happen in the midrange in my understanding.

I would enjoy knowing just what percentage of Nvidia profits come from the 8800gtx. without anything to go on, I'd guess around 4-8%

Yes volume and hence profit is generated from the mid, low, and high range cards in that order so mid range is where the money gets made. The pricing of the mid range however is run by the high end cards so agressive pricing at the high end where there is little volume can depress the mid range prices (remember Core2Duo vs X2). Holding the "High Ground" in performance allows better control of the price structure for the entire line so Nvidia has the upper hand and can force prices lower.
May 2, 2007 2:03:22 AM

Quote:
What are the chances the R600 series was intended to look pale to buy more time on releasing it to hold up stock during midyear?

They arent idiots and releasing underperformers ar counter productive unless it suits a need. Why shove the xtx out knowing its flawed? It has got to serve a function. And thats been bugging me since the benches at daily tech.

How feasible is it that they are playing hide and seek and what reasons could justify it?


Well yes Vern, they could be playing hide and seek, and they could be doing this because they are idiots and they don't have the faintest clue what the buying public wants. As to the chances of the R600 being intended to look pale and thus hold up the stocks, that seems like something out of fantasyland.

As to the benches out of Dailytech, I suspect they're real and I suspect that is the real reason the cards haven't been released. I wonder if AMD has been trying to improve them, but has run out of time and needs to sell them at any cost just to get rid of the inventory and thus get some cash flow. If so, the prices might tumble down in a hurry.
May 2, 2007 5:43:05 PM

Quote:
What are the chances the R600 series was intended to look pale to buy more time on releasing it to hold up stock during midyear?

They arent idiots and releasing underperformers ar counter productive unless it suits a need. Why shove the xtx out knowing its flawed? It has got to serve a function. And thats been bugging me since the benches at daily tech.

How feasible is it that they are playing hide and seek and what reasons could justify it?


I would surmize the R600's have been ready for some time and were held back to debut on the Barcelona core which had problems and they needed $$ so they release the R600's on Intel processors. The release is all hush hush (The Tunisian Thrilla) so they could float the 2.2B bond deal before the stock takes a hit it's probably hard to time milti-billion dollar bond offering down to the minute so best not to blow it in Tunisia with a poor performance.

The other possibility (Baron's favorite of course) is the R600's are designed to work specifically with Barcelona cores and thus underperform when run on Intel cores due to the lack of IMC. Of course the questions are why would they have done this?, and then how could they have done this in the short time 2Q's since AMD purchased them? I would have to place this in the highly doubtful category as it makes no sense.
May 2, 2007 8:48:14 PM

Quote:
Anyway i was just looking for some logic in AMD's idiotic maundering and posing ideas. :wink:


Logic and AMD in the same sentence? Surely you jest. Wouldn't that be an oxymoron? Now, the words AMD and idiotic in the same sentence do go together.
May 2, 2007 10:15:24 PM

Quote:
R600 isnt complete, its not ready. If the rumors arent true then its only the xtx.

Anyway i was just looking for some logic in AMD's idiotic maundering and posing ideas. :wink:


Well they were ideas, not great but we are trying to figure out AMD's idiodic plunge toward death while squirming to escape.
May 3, 2007 2:53:48 PM

AMD shareholder meeting today does anbody have any info on what other than the dilution request is on the agenda?
May 3, 2007 3:05:43 PM

Quote:
AMD shareholder meeting today does anbody have any info on what other than the dilution request is on the agenda?


I think the situation is that with all the overly perfect bad news reports on AMD, you get the inevitable -- all the weak holders sold, and that leaves the stock with more upside than downside potential for the moment. Regardless, anyone long lately on stocks, whether blue chips or just chips, has to be feeling OK right now!

Re Intel: "Intel Corp. (INTC) Chief Executive Paul Otellini said Thursday the company is on track to cut $2 billion in costs this year and $3 billion next year. Speaking during an analyst meeting in New York City, Otellini said the Santa Clara, Calif.-chip maker now has a "much lower" cost structure and plans to reduce headcount more in 2007. According to Otellini, while Intel expects to have revenue growth in 2007 and 2008, he expects the bottom line to grow faster than the top line." --Dow Jones

One piece of news for AMD: the new laptop chip said to be both faster and more power friendly both.
May 3, 2007 3:49:19 PM

yea, there was a good buying opp yesterday to get in @ $13.35 i was hoping that it was going to go down a little bit more but then it went up 3% and today another 2-3%.
I didnt see any news that looked like it was that good to make it pop.

BaldEagle Not as yet still looking.

AMD $13.90 up 2% 14 million volume 11:48 ET
May 3, 2007 4:10:07 PM

AMD's price keeps going up. Guess we should have bought some yesterday and taken a quick profit today. Not sure what's spurring the price, but it will be nice to know whether the dilution gets approved or not.

Vern, that R690 chipset news looks good. Maybe that is helping the stock price. Don't know, but anything that helps the future cpu performance is good..
May 3, 2007 4:20:22 PM

Quote:
AMD's price keeps going up. Guess we should have bought some yesterday and taken a quick profit today. Not sure what's spurring the price, but it will be nice to know whether the dilution gets approved or not.

Vern, that R690 chipset news looks good. Maybe that is helping the stock price. Don't know, but anything that helps the future cpu performance is good..


I think few investors or even instituional is that sophisticated -- on chipsets beyond just that they have them. Instead I think it's more about the new laptop cpus, which are much simpler to understand -- faster with lower power use.
May 3, 2007 5:09:16 PM

Vern, I've subscribed to mcW for a while, but haven't gotten anything of value re AMD from his thoughts. He does like Intel, but I disagree with him on details there too -- Intel has some things he points out, but really it's the economy that matters to Intel and AMD. Nonetheless, he has some influence I think, and of course, some good stuff picking out smaller semi companies due to consumer trends in tech. But I don't see anything new on AMD there at the site for a while now. The most recent was only a reiteration of a view now months old.
May 3, 2007 5:21:33 PM

With the obvious positive for Intel's financials in the news quote I put earlier today in this thread, much bigger news in a way is just that the US economy is looking better now than it was, which could help make Intel's CEO look at lot smarter....if people can afford to pay up for the output of all those fabs. Paul O. might just get lucky, and end up looking really good.

Such a good economy will benefit AMD too of course, along with all the chip companies.

It's good news for Intel stock holders, and brightens the intel prospects in my mind.
!