Article: AMD wont survive the year without PE buyout

[Wombat2]

http://www.eetimes.com/blog/news/archives/2007/04/maybe_jerry_san.html

 

[immagikman]

I was just reading that AMD was trying to raise capital by issuing $2BILLION in bonds or some such securities. They are definately in a rough spot financially. Anyone who thinks they are delaying their product releases on purpose, isn't taking into account their current situation finance wise.

 

[Slobogob]

Anyone who thinks they are delaying their product releases on purpose, isn't taking into account their current situation finance wise.

Indeed, they should hurry up to get their products market ready instead of delaying them at every opportunity so they can finally start to make some money again. Yet everytime i read something about AMD the word delay is tied to the article.

 

[speedbird]

Good competition drives prices lower as seen in the current CPU market. Good competition drives company's to create the best products to keep the number one spot.

 

[Ycon]

Sell ATi for gods sake.
Now theyve stolen ATis technology and ideas anyway so why keep em...

I really wouldnt be surprised if that really happens, thats just exactly how AMD operates in business.

 

[1Tanker]

Anyone who thinks they are delaying their product releases on purpose, isn't taking into account their current situation finance wise.

Indeed, they should hurry up to get their products market ready instead of delaying them at every opportunity so they can finally start to make some money again. Yet everytime i read something about AMD the word delay is tied to the article.

AMD's engineers are being force to move in different directions other than cpu's. Thats why their products are delayed. There trying to get more products out there. They just need to weather the storm.
It will be a cold day in hell for all of us if AMD gets out of/or forced out of the CPU business. If Intel keeps pulling ahead in processor technology, Intel will then monopolize and charge whatever it wants. Without AMD, there will be no competition for Intel. AMD going down is the last thing any of us want.They seem to want to change the direction of CPU's, as you're saying, but now is not a good time to do that. They should get a decent processor line out....NOW!!... get their financials back in order...then get creative. When your future is on the line...that's not a good time to try and be creative.

 

[Slobogob]

AMD's engineers are being force to move in different directions other than cpu's. Thats why their products are delayed. There trying to get more products out there. They just need to weather the storm.
It will be a cold day in hell for all of us if AMD gets out of/or forced out of the CPU business. If Intel keeps pulling ahead in processor technology, Intel will then monopolize and charge whatever it wants. Without AMD, there will be no competition for Intel. AMD going down is the last thing any of us want.

People keep telling me that AMD is needed for competition. Usually i agree but right now AMD fails horribly at competing. I sincerly doubt that the market would look too different without AMD in the short term. Competition is a good thing, right, but AMD somehow stopped competing after they released K8.

 

[gallag]

Anyone who thinks they are delaying their product releases on purpose, isn't taking into account their current situation finance wise.

Indeed, they should hurry up to get their products market ready instead of delaying them at every opportunity so they can finally start to make some money again. Yet everytime i read something about AMD the word delay is tied to the article.

AMD's engineers are being force to move in different directions other than cpu's. Thats why their products are delayed. There trying to get more products out there. They just need to weather the storm.
It will be a cold day in hell for all of us if AMD gets out of/or forced out of the CPU business. If Intel keeps pulling ahead in processor technology, Intel will then monopolize and charge whatever it wants. Without AMD, there will be no competition for Intel. AMD going down is the last thing any of us want.

I sure hope amd dont go down (building a 3600am2 sys at the min for a friend to do my part) but this argument is weak. Even if intel has a monoply they will still want people to buy more cpus so they will now overcharge and will always make them better.

think about it, would intel stop making faster cpus hopeing that you will buy the same one next year for twice the price?

And not to rub salt in or any thing, but in the last years there was only one range of cpus that were overpriced and they were the amd x2's

 

[BaldEagle]

With the $2B bond offering being sucessful AMD cash requirements should be met until Q2 08' at which point Barcelona and Agena revenue should be hitting the books. ATI was never a big cash cow either way they made a little profit or a little loss nothing that would alter the basic AMD finaincial picture so I expect the R600 line to follow traditional ATI suit and provide very little to the bottom line. If Barcelona and Agena is not sufficient to turn them into the black I would have to say warm up the fat lady cause she's going on stage to sing.

 

[Wombat2]

Yeah.

AMD just lost one potential cash cow. K10 frikken HAS to deliver now

Does anyone else think AMD marketing handled this really badly? They didnt seem to even try to spin it positively :?

 

[maxxum]

Anyone who thinks they are delaying their product releases on purpose, isn't taking into account their current situation finance wise.

Indeed, they should hurry up to get their products market ready instead of delaying them at every opportunity so they can finally start to make some money again. Yet everytime i read something about AMD the word delay is tied to the article.

AMD's engineers are being force to move in different directions other than cpu's. Thats why their products are delayed. There trying to get more products out there. They just need to weather the storm.
It will be a cold day in hell for all of us if AMD gets out of/or forced out of the CPU business. If Intel keeps pulling ahead in processor technology, Intel will then monopolize and charge whatever it wants. Without AMD, there will be no competition for Intel. AMD going down is the last thing any of us want.They seem to want to change the direction of CPU's, as you're saying, but now is not a good time to do that. They should get a decent processor line out....NOW!!... get their financials back in order...then get creative. When your future is on the line...that's not a good time to try and be creative.

I disagree. I think now is the ‘perfect’ time to change things up. They are what, two maybe even three years behind Intel now. They need to innovate, not just pump out second rate processors. If they just want to play second fiddle, then sure, they can just keep on with the same process. However, there is no pressure to outdo Intel at the moment – everyone knows Intel has the crown and will for the foreseeable future. Instead of trying hype they need to sit down and take a chance on a new direction just like Intel did.

 

[r0x0r]

Good competition drives prices lower as seen in the current CPU market. Good competition drives company's to create the best products to keep the number one spot.

"Neccessity is the mother of all invention".

Interesting times ahead...

 

[sailer]

I was just reading that AMD was trying to raise capital by issuing $2BILLION in bonds or some such securities. They are definately in a rough spot financially. Anyone who thinks they are delaying their product releases on purpose, isn't taking into account their current situation finance wise.

Its the product delay that has me baffled. AMD needs cash. They would get cash by selling a product. They claim to have a full inventory of R600 cards, which if sold, would bring them cash. Yet they keep delaying the release of the card, month after month. Now the XTX version of the card seems to be delayed until the fall.

All this indicates to me that either they are having massive troulbes with the card which they don't want to talk about, or they have been flat out lying about the card, its availability, and/or performance. Of course, maybe there's no problem with the card, its just the management has a death wish for the company or something. Just my two cents worth.

 

[3Ball]

Well at first glance with those fishy benchmarks from dailytech.com (I say that because my system scores higher in the HL2 benchmark than both systems) it would seem that ATI's HD 2900 XT is performing below what I thought it should have at least. (for being out 6 - 8 months later than its competition) It is possible like you said that the XTX version is not performing to well at this point and time, but I agree that they need to push something out to generate some revenue. My honest belief is that after looking at speculation of the specs of the XTX is that they may be having power problems with that monster! I will most likely be getting either an OC version of the 8800GTS 640mb or the retail HD 2900 XT once is releases and more benchmarks and thorough reviews have declared us a more definitive winner among the 2. They seem to be about all my 550w Antec NeoHE PSU can handle at the moment. Just my two cents! Lets see some good new AMD we are all ready for it!!!!!

Best,

3Ball

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

Make no mistake, if AMD for some reason was to perish we'd all be screwed both price and innovation wise.

 

[shawnpaul3]

I was just reading that AMD was trying to raise capital by issuing $2BILLION in bonds or some such securities. They are definately in a rough spot financially. Anyone who thinks they are delaying their product releases on purpose, isn't taking into account their current situation finance wise.

Its the product delay that has me baffled. AMD needs cash. They would get cash by selling a product. They claim to have a full inventory of R600 cards, which if sold, would bring them cash. Yet they keep delaying the release of the card, month after month. Now the XTX version of the card seems to be delayed until the fall.

All this indicates to me that either they are having massive troulbes with the card which they don't want to talk about, or they have been flat out lying about the card, its availability, and/or performance. Of course, maybe there's no problem with the card, its just the management has a death wish for the company or something. Just my two cents worth.

Could it be possible that the execs at AMD are priming the company to be sold? Seen it happen before.

 

[sailer]

Make no mistake, if AMD for some reason was to perish we'd all be screwed both price and innovation wise.

I fully agree. Its competition that drives the innovation to improve, and its competition that keeps a company from overcharging the consumer. But there has to be a competitive product from AMD for it to sell.

 

[xpresso]

Harsh words -- I take this with a grain of salt, Mark LaPedus is a reporter at EEtimes...

AMD is having a hard time, but I think his 'won't survive the year' without PE is abit over the top.

I echo Jack's comments, indeed harsh words and Mark is known for speaking his mind which is a good thing. AMD is in a better shape still, I will reserve judgment till Q2 earnings. I have worked with people who worked for AMD under Jerry Sanders & others who have for Hector Ruiz from his days at Motorola, not AMD. Obviously these 2 CEO's couldn't be any different on multiple levels. I personnaly have not been impressed by Hector. He got a lot of credit for things that happened because of Jerry planting the seeds...I've worked in the field for a long time and have a very good insight into this industry. Jerry is more of a visionary than Hector, it is similar to comparing Andy Grove to Craig Barrett at Intel to some extent (I know I will get lots of flack for that...).

I have to agree with Mark's #4 comments:
4. Perhaps AMD should get acquired by IBM or a member of IBM's ''fab club.'' My assessment: IBM is a bad choice. IBM is a great IP firm, but it never really understood the semi business. Here's a crazy idea: Samsung wants to go toe-to-toe against Intel. How about Samsung buying AMD? However, I'm afraid Intel would kick Samsung's ass in processors. Samsung is a mere one-hit commodity wonder.

See Intel & Samsung are the #1 and 2 semiconductor giants in the field, AMD is a small player. I have posted on this board about 2 months ago that a better suitor for AMD is Samsung than IBM. Sure it will take time to work out, but AMD will get access to serious capital investment capabilities as Intel. Cash is king if you want to stay an IDM in this business and AMD will not build another fab under its current business model.

 

[sabenfox]

Could it be possible that the execs at AMD are priming the company to be sold? Seen it happen before.

After coming this far in the game, it would be a sad thing...

I don't think AMD would go out this way

 

[sabenfox]

See Intel & Samsung are the #1 and 2 semiconductor giants in the field, AMD is a small player. I have posted on this board about 2 months ago that a better suitor for AMD is Samsung than IBM. Sure it will take time to work out, but AMD will get access to serious capital investment capabilities as Intel. Cash is king if you want to stay an IDM in this business and AMD will not build another fab under its current business model

Seriously speaking, if intel wanted to crush AMD into the ground would they be able to do it ?

IE : they release penryn early, then alreayd have the next cpu lined up to release, just keep pushing AMD so far behind that it's ridiculous.

I also read that Intel has MASS amounts of cash more then AMD.
Walmart stratgey comes to mind...

AMD would be forced into bankruptcy / sell the company

 

[turpit]

AMD's engineers are being force to move in different directions other than cpu's. Thats why their products are delayed. There trying to get more products out there. They just need to weather the storm.
It will be a cold day in hell for all of us if AMD gets out of/or forced out of the CPU business. If Intel keeps pulling ahead in processor technology, Intel will then monopolize and charge whatever it wants. Without AMD, there will be no competition for Intel. AMD going down is the last thing any of us want.

People keep telling me that AMD is needed for competition. Usually i agree but right now AMD fails horribly at competing. I sincerly doubt that the market would look too different without AMD in the short term. Competition is a good thing, right, but AMD somehow stopped competing after they released K8.

I have to disagree with you slob, AMD is competing (finally) on the value front, an important catagory. Unfortunately, they delayed their significant price cuts so long as to cause loss of market share, and the lowering of prices (to remain competitive) has obviously cut into their margins. It is being competative that is hurting AMD, conversely, to maintain high prices in the face of better perfroming lower priced Intel chips hurt as well, but was simply not competitive. In terms of perfromance, AMD is competative in the low and mid range products, but does not have a top end product. That cuts them out of that segment of the market completely, eliminating competition, but thats about it.

It all boils down to AMD got lazy and was unprepared. What is really hurting them right now is themselves. Considering their size and resources, they should have begun prepping the K8 predecessor at least 3 years ago.

 

[sabenfox]

It all boils down to AMD got lazy and was unprepared. What is really hurting them right now is themselves. Considering their size and resources, they should have begun prepping the K8 predecessor at least 3 years ago.

That's crazy, 3 years ago ?
Someone mentioned that AMD is behind because they weren't expecting a processor this advanced until around 2008. However i do agree with you, i think AMD did get a little lazy, Kind of like when intel was playing with netburst for so long

 

[turpit]

Harsh words -- I take this with a grain of salt, Mark LaPedus is a reporter at EEtimes...

AMD is having a hard time, but I think his 'won't survive the year' without PE is abit over the top.

So much of that relies on K10. If it flops......

The role reversal is slowly approaching full circle. At this point, after the success of C2D, upto and including 'conspiracy' theories such as Scientias, it seems a lot of people are willing to take Intels at their word when they speak of Penryn. It doesnt hurt that they are already benching samples. More and more people seem to be taking the skepitical route with AMD and K10. Not a whole lot of people seem to want to blindly buy off on Dirk, Henris and the PRs departments ever changing claims, at least not with out benchmarks to back them.

K10 doesnt just need to perform, it need to prove it in the same metrics that C2D has been beating K8 in. If it flops, and penryn hits the marks set, its going to be crippling for AMD as an x86 manufacturer

 

[turpit]

It all boils down to AMD got lazy and was unprepared. What is really hurting them right now is themselves. Considering their size and resources, they should have begun prepping the K8 predecessor at least 3 years ago.

That's crazy, 3 years ago ?
Someone mentioned that AMD is behind because they weren't expecting a processor this advanced until around 2008. However i do agree with you, i think AMD did get a little lazy, Kind of like when intel was playing with netburst for so long

Taking a processor from concept to product isnt a 8 month process, and in AMDs case, being so limited relative to Intel in terms of R&D funding and resources means to stay abreast or ahead of Intel means they have to start that much sooner to account for the relative delays incurred.

Three years ago would have had AMD (at a guess) ready to go, maybe, with K10 about the same time as C2D was released, 9 months ago.

 

[futurelic]

AMD64 cpu qualities helped to force intel to change to cooler running more overclockable 64 bit processors

AMD probably wants to bring advanced features to market, not just leap frog intel in performance.