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When will Terabyte hard disks become mainstream???

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May 8, 2007 12:00:09 AM

I know several models of terabyte capacity hard drives are available now but they seem a little pricey. When do you think they will come down to the $80 - $150 price range??? :?:
May 8, 2007 12:45:17 AM

a year, maybe a year and a half, 500 gigs are at that price now.
a b G Storage
May 8, 2007 12:49:21 AM

My guess, about 5 - 10 years. It'll take time to develop a new technology to increase the density of magnetic storage per platter in order to push storage capacity of a half height disk drive to far beyond 1TB. That sounds at little impossible to me.

I would guess that once a 5TB drive comes out, then a 1TB will fall into the $80 - $150 price range.
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May 8, 2007 1:14:26 AM

Quote:
My guess, about 5 - 10 years. It'll take time to develop a new technology to increase the density of magnetic storage per platter in order to push storage capacity of a half height disk drive to far beyond 1TB. That sounds at little impossible to me.


The same kind of impossible (and unnecessary) that 1GB were 15 years ago?
May 8, 2007 1:38:48 AM

When Vista catches on.
May 8, 2007 1:42:42 AM

Who the heck needs 1 TB. I cant even fill up a 150gb
May 8, 2007 1:43:26 AM

Quote:
Who the heck needs one T I cant even fill up a 150gb

They said the same thing for 64MB drives bro.
May 8, 2007 1:44:14 AM

You should see how much photos and crap I have on here. You'd have to do ALOT of video editing to fill that.
May 8, 2007 2:04:02 AM

I have about 1.5TB on this rig. I'm about 60% full, and that's with daily cleaning.
May 8, 2007 2:12:59 AM

I've just about used 150gb of storage, about a third of it is images from my photography hobby.
May 8, 2007 2:14:25 AM

Quote:
Who the heck needs 1 TB. I cant even fill up a 150gb


^^^I have porn lots and lots of PORN :D 
May 8, 2007 2:23:17 AM

Quote:
I've just about used 150gb of storage, about a third of it is images from my photography hobby.


Yeah my drive is full from my "photography hobby" as well. Awesome!
May 8, 2007 2:35:44 AM

Within a year, two tops. Increasing data density should allow some companies to introduce 1.5TB drives by next year, possibly 2TB by end of next year. As data density goes up, so does performance. 399 isn't really that much for a 1TB drive that offers real-world performance close to that of a raptor. It's 40 cents a GB. A Raptor 74GB for 150 is nearly 2 bucks a GB.
May 8, 2007 2:39:11 AM

Quote:
I know several models of terabyte capacity hard drives are available now but they seem a little pricey. When do you think they will come down to the $80 - $150 price range??? :?:


It might be a bit more reasonable to ask when 1TB drives will hit $250.

That will be a happy day.
May 8, 2007 2:44:10 AM

Quote:
I've just about used 150gb of storage, about a third of it is images from my photography hobby.


Yeah my drive is full from my "photography hobby" as well. Awesome!

I have come close to going pro.
May 8, 2007 3:14:07 AM

Quote:
My guess, about 5 - 10 years. It'll take time to develop a new technology to increase the density of magnetic storage per platter in order to push storage capacity of a half height disk drive to far beyond 1TB. That sounds at little impossible to me.

I would guess that once a 5TB drive comes out, then a 1TB will fall into the $80 - $150 price range.


5 to 10 years?? No way. A year maybe 2 years tops. And about developing a new technology, it's called perpendicular. The 1TB HD uses this technology already. cb62fcni was right on with his reasoning

Your reasoning jag seems kind of dated and would have been right on about 5-10 years ago. :o  Did you access this forum from 5 years in the past or something??
a b G Storage
May 8, 2007 3:28:12 AM

It's easy to fill up a harddrive these days. Programs keep getting bigger as the years go on. Windows 98 was only 300MB versus 3GB for XP.
May 8, 2007 4:27:42 AM

The hard disk industry has actually been moving faster than Moore's Law. (Transister density doubling roughly every 18 months.) Over the past decade, hard drives have averaged a doubling in capacity roughly every 12 months. There are no signs of this slowing down either.

Perpendicular recording is just recently enabled drives over 500GB. PMR has yet to mature. The next technologies that will increase capacities further are patterned media and heat assisted magnetic recording (HAMR). These technologies will enable 50TB 3.5" drives in the next decade.

By that time flash storage will most likely have replaced just about all 1", 1.8", and most 2.5" magnetic drives.

Ryan
May 8, 2007 4:27:42 AM

They have the technology to build bigger than 1tb drives right now but they've chosen not to release them yet. I believe they said perp recording will take us to around 5tb and then they will use laser magnetic recording and have 40-50tb drives in the next few years. Now all of this was off the top of my head and I don't have the best memory so take this with a grain of salt. But I remember my first 40gb drive, I thought there's no way I could ever fill that, now I have 1.28tb storage and I need to upgrade cuz that's almost full. Between high resolution pics, tons of uncompressed music, dvd rips, it goes quick, and I think there's a pretty big demand for big drives so I think we'll see bigger drives very soon. My guess is 1tb will be mainstream within a year. Meh, I remember when my 1.7gb drive was a monster, now you can't even fit xp on that.
May 8, 2007 4:29:54 AM

People keep arguing whether flash will take over completely, I doubt it ever will, at least not in the near future, no matter how far we advance with flash we still will have gotten much farther with mechanical drives. But I can see flash drives in average joe's computer if the cost goes down.
May 8, 2007 4:40:09 AM

I agree with you. That's why I think that it will only take over the drives that are used for products where huge storage is not as critical. (Mostly products that use smaller form factor drives.) For example, in a few years, a flash iPod may be available with a 500GB capacity, but magnetic stoage could enable a 1TB iPod at the same time. Most people would be better with the flash version because it is more reliable and enables longer battery life yet it can still store weeks worth of music and days worth of video. Just wait until people want to start ripping Blu-Ray or HD DVD movies. A 1TB drives can only hold 40 DL Blu-Ray movies. In servers or other high storage demand applications, magnetic storage will be far more cost effective for many years to come.

Ryan
May 8, 2007 6:11:59 AM

Quote:
Who the heck needs 1 TB. I cant even fill up a 150gb
At the last LAN, the one guy had a 400GB drive full of just his pr0n. Nevermind all of his other downloads (movies, music vids, music, games, programs, photo's/other pics).
May 8, 2007 6:13:18 AM

Quote:
It's easy to fill up a harddrive these days. Programs keep getting bigger as the years go on. Windows 98 was only 300MB versus 3GB for XP.
Which XP have you got? My xp, with sp2, office and most of my other apps don't take more than 2GB...
May 8, 2007 7:19:11 PM

Quote:
It's easy to fill up a harddrive these days. Programs keep getting bigger as the years go on. Windows 98 was only 300MB versus 3GB for XP.
Which XP have you got? My xp, with sp2, office and most of my other apps don't take more than 2GB...

2GB? Do you mean 20GB? Your trying to tell me that if you view the properties for your "Windows" folder and your "Program Files" folder, total size is less than 2GB total? If you have 1GB of RAM, you have at least 1.5GB in page file alone. My current XP SP2 install is at 4.5GB without the page file. With the OS and Apps, I'm at 21.9GB.

Ryan
May 8, 2007 7:52:04 PM

I'd say....around Xmas time this year ( or should I have called it a "Non specific winter holiday celebration). :wink:
May 8, 2007 8:01:13 PM

Quote:
goldragon_70 wrote:
I've just about used 150gb of storage, about a third of it is images from my photography hobby.


Yeah my drive is full from my "photography hobby" as well. Awesome!


Just so you know... laughin hard enough to have smoking chedder doritos come through your nose burns like hell.
May 8, 2007 8:05:49 PM

It will be very popular with servers but on desktops still it will take a while since few users would ever need 1000Gb of storage capacity on thier pc.
May 8, 2007 10:59:40 PM

I think the big niche for these huge drives for now is going to be in HTPC's and DVR's. Judging by the 3.1-95-98-ME-XP-Vista progression, the next MS OS will likely take up at least 500GB, so there's that as well.
May 8, 2007 11:21:33 PM

Quote:
Who the heck needs 1 TB. I cant even fill up a 150gb


:lol: 
I can't even fill up 100gb....about 10gb music, 1.5 gb pictures, 3.6gb movies, and I am not sure how much my games and programs take up. I don't even have half life 2 installed (I have HL2, ep1, css, etc.. that equals like 9gb)....so, yeah 100 gb is hard to fill...
Then again, I do have an external storage drive (the same as my custom's hd) but that is even less than my custom's drive...

What's the point for me to use a 1TB drive? (bragging rights I guess...)
May 8, 2007 11:44:04 PM

People who have an extensive porn collection. :) 

In my case I'm a digital packrat and can't bring to myself to delete or burn much of anything. I have a 500GB and 320GB of external as well as 200GB internal storage space (before formatting of course). I make 2 backups of all my games, home movies, photos, work files and other stuff just in case one drive dies i have the files backed up somewhere else. Out of the 1Tb of storage i have about half left. Would be nice to have 2 1TB drives.
May 9, 2007 5:23:05 AM

My games alone take more than 50GB. CSS (with all the extra maps and latest updates) take more than 10GB, Unreal tournament 6.5GB, Toca 3 over 7GB, then I still have test drive unlimited, command and conquer 3, rainbow 6 vegas, titan quest immortal throne (hope it's the correct name haven't played that in a while), spellforce 2, Oblivion. These all take a whole lotta space. I have alot of movies. Yesterday alone I got another 17GB of movies so I would like to see these big drives (even 750GB drives) come way down in price and be mainstream. I have 410GB and it's definately not enough...
May 9, 2007 6:11:17 AM

Quote:
Who the heck needs 1 TB. I cant even fill up a 150gb


When there is pr0n being made, there is a nerd in need of more hd space. :mrgreen:
May 9, 2007 12:12:04 PM

Your maintenance is up to ____ then.

My XP Pro SP2 install is on a 10GB partition on a Raptor (other 62GB is used to store misc crap). I have about 5.5GB free space on said partition. You do the maths.

The reason it stays at the ~4.5GB mark is because once weekly I clean up temp folders and other gwat, I do not install unnecessary junk (uninstalling 3/4 of Windows' unnecessary junk btw), and I have my My Documents folder mapped to the 62GB partition (after being suitably renamed to 'The Pit').

I might also add that this system has been running about 3 months since I last power-cycled it. No crashes whatsoever.

Learn, guys.
May 9, 2007 12:51:18 PM

The prices will come down regardless if there is a big "need" for these drives or not. Once bigger and better models come out, manufacturing costs go down and competition ensues the prices will come down.

I really don't get why people argue about how they don't need that much HD space when "need" is not the issue here. It's not like they use that much more power or waste more natural resources compared to say a 100-500gb drive. I say bring on the 1TB drives, needed at the moment or not. I don't mind having cheaper storage costs. :) 

Quote:
People keep arguing whether flash will take over completely, I doubt it ever will, at least not in the near future, no matter how far we advance with flash we still will have gotten much farther with mechanical drives.


Not if you look how fast flash has come in the last couple of years. The rate at which flash drive storage is increasing is much faster than what HD storage has.
May 9, 2007 3:32:24 PM

Quote:
goldragon_70 wrote:
I've just about used 150gb of storage, about a third of it is images from my photography hobby.


Yeah my drive is full from my "photography hobby" as well. Awesome!


Just so you know... laughin hard enough to have smoking chedder doritos come through your nose burns like hell.

I wasn't talking about porn though. :roll:
May 9, 2007 7:12:38 PM

Quote:
You should see how much photos and crap I have on here. You'd have to do ALOT of video editing to fill that.


Thats nice bro. I have about 1.5tb+ and I have about 70gb free. I do a good deal of video editing, though not as much as many other people I know and work with.

But yeah, wow, I can't IMAGINE how many photos and crap you have to fill... 150gb!!
May 9, 2007 7:47:47 PM

When HD pr0n is mainstream.
By the way, Im dead serious about what I said.
!