Barcelona hint via Cray warning

[Periander]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070604/0261144.html

Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NasdaqGM:CRAY - News) today announced that due to recent information with respect to the timing of volume parts availability, the company now believes that 2007 revenue associated with quad-core Cray XT4™ systems will likely be less than previously anticipated. Cray continues to anticipate deliveries of quad-core Cray XT4 systems and upgrades to begin during the fourth quarter of 2007; however, the timing is such that most or all of the planned acceptances, and associated revenue recognition, will likely be deferred until early 2008.

Cray uses AMD Opterons for it's computers. The XT4 is its first computer that can utilize quad core Opterons. Based on it's comments about "volume parts availability" you can draw your own inferences.

 

[BaronMatrix]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070604/0261144.html

Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NasdaqGM:CRAY - News) today announced that due to recent information with respect to the timing of volume parts availability, the company now believes that 2007 revenue associated with quad-core Cray XT4™ systems will likely be less than previously anticipated. Cray continues to anticipate deliveries of quad-core Cray XT4 systems and upgrades to begin during the fourth quarter of 2007; however, the timing is such that most or all of the planned acceptances, and associated revenue recognition, will likely be deferred until early 2008.

Cray uses AMD Opterons for it's computers. The XT4 is its first computer that can utilize quad core Opterons. Based on it's comments about "volume parts availability" you can draw your own inferences.


Sounds like what they're saying is exactly what AMD said. They will have volume but the revenue effect of Barcelona won't be felt until 08.

 

[fidgewinkle]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070604/0261144.html

Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NasdaqGM:CRAY - News) today announced that due to recent information with respect to the timing of volume parts availability, the company now believes that 2007 revenue associated with quad-core Cray XT4™ systems will likely be less than previously anticipated. Cray continues to anticipate deliveries of quad-core Cray XT4 systems and upgrades to begin during the fourth quarter of 2007; however, the timing is such that most or all of the planned acceptances, and associated revenue recognition, will likely be deferred until early 2008.

Cray uses AMD Opterons for it's computers. The XT4 is its first computer that can utilize quad core Opterons. Based on it's comments about "volume parts availability" you can draw your own inferences.


Sounds like what they're saying is exactly what AMD said. They will have volume but the revenue effect of Barcelona won't be felt until 08.

No. They are saying that they won't have volume available until 2008. What about "upgrades will begin in the fourth quarter of 2007" says that they will have volume in 2007? The "timing of volume parts availability" is what is causing this, which means they don't anticipate getting volume until a date where the delay through their assembly and testing will push deliveries into 2008. The most we can say is that they anticipate having volume very late in the year at earliest. This is completely dependent upon Cray's specific cycle time and is still an optimistic assumption. They might not anticipate getting volume processors until 2008.

Needless to say, this statement by Cray suggests that volume Barcelona shipments will be in November-December 2007 at the earliest.[/b]

 

[BaronMatrix]

No. They are saying that they won't have volume available until 2008. What about "upgrades will begin in the fourth quarter of 2007" says that they will have volume in 2007? The "timing of volume parts availability" is what is causing this, which means they don't anticipate getting volume until a date where the delay through their assembly and testing will push deliveries into 2008. The most we can say is that they anticipate having volume very late in the year at earliest. This is completely dependent upon Cray's specific cycle time and is still an optimistic assumption. They might not anticipate getting volume processors until 2008.

Needless to say, this statement by Cray suggests that volume Barcelona shipments will be in November-December 2007 at the earliest.

is it just that you have to disagree, even when you say the same thing? A drop-in replacement will not take several months to validate. They are doing that now. It didn't take that long for the dual core versions.

AMD said repeatedly Barcelona will be around but just like it took several quarters for C2D to become a large portion of shipments the same thing will happen here.

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

I expect Dell to announce servers soon as well as HP and Sun and even IBM. When they reach 50% depends entirely on how much of Fab 30 (where probably ALL Opterons are made) converts to 65nm and desktop/mobile parts.

No Opterons will be 65nm so they will stop making them as soon as they go 100% 65nm at Fab30.

But I digress, I still say the info jibes with what AMD has been saying all along.

 

[Major_Spittle]

Baron-

LOL

- Major_Spittle

 

[Periander]

Baron:

I don't know exactly how long it takes for Cray to get new chips into its systems and into customers hands. It is quite clear from the warning, however, that whenever Cray was expecting volume availability, they were expecting it to be earlier than they are expecting it now, thus the warning that they won't be meeting prior estimates. That's a slip, however you want to cut it, a slip from when to when is debatable, but a slip nonetheless. Cray is certainly one of AMD's top tier customers, and have to be as well informed about Barcelona availability as anyone outside of AMD itself.

 

[SEALBoy]

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

Actually, Q3 starts in July. Right now, it's Q2.

 

[halbhh]

Why is it "optimistic"? Do you have information you are withholding?

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070604/0261144.html

Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NasdaqGM:CRAY - News) today announced that due to recent information with respect to the timing of volume parts availability, the company now believes that 2007 revenue associated with quad-core Cray XT4™ systems will likely be less than previously anticipated. Cray continues to anticipate deliveries of quad-core Cray XT4 systems and upgrades to begin during the fourth quarter of 2007; however, the timing is such that most or all of the planned acceptances, and associated revenue recognition, will likely be deferred until early 2008.

Cray uses AMD Opterons for it's computers. The XT4 is its first computer that can utilize quad core Opterons. Based on it's comments about "volume parts availability" you can draw your own inferences.


Sounds like what they're saying is exactly what AMD said. They will have volume but the revenue effect of Barcelona won't be felt until 08.

Nice try spin doctor. It means that Barcelona is just going to be a city until late, late this year and that AMD is going to be feeling major hurt. How is Shakira's INTEL BK 2Q 08 prediction supposed to come true when it looks like Phenom might not be out until then.

 

[fidgewinkle]

No. They are saying that they won't have volume available until 2008. What about "upgrades will begin in the fourth quarter of 2007" says that they will have volume in 2007? The "timing of volume parts availability" is what is causing this, which means they don't anticipate getting volume until a date where the delay through their assembly and testing will push deliveries into 2008. The most we can say is that they anticipate having volume very late in the year at earliest. This is completely dependent upon Cray's specific cycle time and is still an optimistic assumption. They might not anticipate getting volume processors until 2008.

Needless to say, this statement by Cray suggests that volume Barcelona shipments will be in November-December 2007 at the earliest.

is it just that you have to disagree, even when you say the same thing? A drop-in replacement will not take several months to validate. They are doing that now. It didn't take that long for the dual core versions.

AMD said repeatedly Barcelona will be around but just like it took several quarters for C2D to become a large portion of shipments the same thing will happen here.

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

I expect Dell to announce servers soon as well as HP and Sun and even IBM. When they reach 50% depends entirely on how much of Fab 30 (where probably ALL Opterons are made) converts to 65nm and desktop/mobile parts.

No Opterons will be 65nm so they will stop making them as soon as they go 100% 65nm at Fab30.

But I digress, I still say the info jibes with what AMD has been saying all along.

I didn't say the same thing. You said:

Sounds like what they're saying is exactly what AMD said. They will have volume but the revenue effect of Barcelona won't be felt until 08.

Which is saying that there will be volume in 2007, but the revenue won't show it until 2008.

I said that we can only tell that there might be volume very late in the year, too late for Cray to get anything out the door before 2008. I said this is a best case scenario and it could be that Cray doesn't actually expect volume shipments until 2008.

This is nothing like C2D. There were volume shipments of C2D within a couple months of release. Clearly, such expectations for Barcelona don't exist at Cray and it is foolish to compare Barcelona expected volumes to what happened with C2D.

 

[BaronMatrix]

I said that we can only tell that there might be volume very late in the year, too late for Cray to get anything out the door before 2008. I said this is a best case scenario and it could be that Cray doesn't actually expect volume shipments until 2008.

This is nothing like C2D. There were volume shipments of C2D within a couple months of release. Clearly, such expectations for Barcelona don't exist at Cray and it is foolish to compare Barcelona expected volumes to what happened with C2D.

Did you take a special English class or something? Cray does not sell as many CPUs as Dell or HP. I would wait to hear from them before announcing

"no volume until 08"

But then I realize that you have to disagree with me and belittle AMD.

 

[Whizzard9992]

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

Actually, Q3 starts in July. Right now, it's Q2.

Wait. Q3 you say? That means we'll see pennies soon!

(<-- Shameless insertion of Intel propaganda here)

And transformers. And Die Hard 4.



It's going to be a fun 2H 2007

/hijack

 

[BaronMatrix]

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

Actually, Q3 starts in July. Right now, it's Q2.

D'oh. I must be working too hard. That's even better since AMD did say shipments in June and machines by Aug with some maybe debuting in July.

 

[1Tanker]

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

Actually, Q3 starts in July. Right now, it's Q2.

D'oh. I must be working too hard. That's even better since AMD did say shipments in June and machines by Aug with some maybe debuting in July.Nice way of saying "i was wrong"....without actually having to say it... Damn, you dodged a bullet on that one. :roll:

 

[turpit]

No. They are saying that they won't have volume available until 2008. What about "upgrades will begin in the fourth quarter of 2007" says that they will have volume in 2007? The "timing of volume parts availability" is what is causing this, which means they don't anticipate getting volume until a date where the delay through their assembly and testing will push deliveries into 2008. The most we can say is that they anticipate having volume very late in the year at earliest. This is completely dependent upon Cray's specific cycle time and is still an optimistic assumption. They might not anticipate getting volume processors until 2008.

Needless to say, this statement by Cray suggests that volume Barcelona shipments will be in November-December 2007 at the earliest.

is it just that you have to disagree, even when you say the same thing? A drop-in replacement will not take several months to validate. They are doing that now. It didn't take that long for the dual core versions.

AMD said repeatedly Barcelona will be around but just like it took several quarters for C2D to become a large portion of shipments the same thing will happen here.

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

I expect Dell to announce servers soon as well as HP and Sun and even IBM. When they reach 50% depends entirely on how much of Fab 30 (where probably ALL Opterons are made) converts to 65nm and desktop/mobile parts.

No Opterons will be 65nm so they will stop making them as soon as they go 100% 65nm at Fab30.

But I digress, I still say the info jibes with what AMD has been saying all along.

You are incorrect. It is currently Q2, not Q3. Q3 begins Jul1. You are correct that Q4 begins in october. To aid you in correcting your misunderstanding, note the attached graphic.

As to your 'expectations', would you please link to evidence supporting your guesses.

 

[mpjesse]

AMD said repeatedly Barcelona will be around but just like it took several quarters for C2D to become a large portion of shipments the same thing will happen here.

Several? Baron, C2D hasn't even been out for 4 quaters, much less seven. But regardless of your grammatical error, C2D only took 2 quarters to ramp up.

 

[mpjesse]

I would like to defend Baron on one point though... pretty much everything AMD has been saying jives. 3 months ago AMD stated that this year would not see volume shipments of Barcelona... so this news story should be of no surprise to anyone (IF it's alluding to Barcelona).

However, what Baron refuses to acknowledge is by the time Barcelona goes to volume shipping it'll be too late; Penryn will already be available... and at this stage it's doubtful Barcelona will be able to fend off Penryn.

 

[Viperabyss]

AMD said repeatedly Barcelona will be around but just like it took several quarters for C2D to become a large portion of shipments the same thing will happen here.

uh.. no
C2D became available on the date specified by Intel. Most of the forum users (JumpingJack and others) got their C2D on the date of the launch. Some got it 2 weeks after the launch due to intense demand.

On the other hand, Barcelona won't appear, at all, 2 quarters after the launch in Computex. Not only there will be no volume distributed to OEM, there will also be no shipments to retail stores.

Bottom line: C2D launch and K10 launch are totally different. Intel fulfilled their promises. AMD, at the moment, kept on making empty promises.

But I digress, I still say the info jibes with what AMD has been saying all along.

....which is outright, marketing words, a.k.a BS.

EDIT: I should say, there will be very, very limited shipments to OEMs and retail stores. But the limited shipments will not keep most OEM happy, if at all.

 

[halbhh]

I would like to defend Baron on one point though... pretty much everything AMD has been saying jives. 3 months ago AMD stated that this year would not see volume shipments of Barcelona... so this news story should be of no surprise to anyone (IF it's alluding to Barcelona).

However, what Baron refuses to acknowledge is by the time Barcelona goes to volume shipping it'll be too late; Penryn will already be available... and at this stage it's doubtful Barcelona will be able to fend off Penryn.

I've read a few educated guess type articles about Penryn vs Barce, and don't get it why you say that. My impression is they should be on level, but with the possibility only that Penryn could jack up it's frequency so high it could have a title of fastest, but not necessarily best per watt (remains to be seen). If you feel AMd has to be significantly better in order to be OK, that's one thing, and perhaps that's your unstated presumption. But if AMD can simply match Intel reasonably well, that would be quite a bit better than where it has been for a year now, and IMO a good sign, since AMd can tweak it's process also. If Barce matches Penryn (is a little better per frequency, but lower frequency on ave), that's good enough in my mind. I guess my question is what does "fend off" mean?

 

[mpjesse]

"Fend off" means preventing Intel from taking additional Enterprise marketshare. If Penryn is just as good as Barcelona, AMD loses. Many OEM's have switched back to Intel and I doubt they're going to switch their volume 1 & 2U servers to Barcelona if Penryn is just as good.

Everyone likes to tout performance per watt, but I can tell you that the majority of companies buying care very little about that. Performance per watt doesn't really come into play until you hit the larger server farms and datacenters (google, MSN, akami, yahoo, etc) Are they big customers? Sure. Do they make up the majority of the enterprise market? No. The rest care about performance and price... plain and simple. I'm not seeing how AMD is going to compete profitably in those sectors.

 

[turpit]

I would like to defend Baron on one point though... pretty much everything AMD has been saying jives. 3 months ago AMD stated that this year would not see volume shipments of Barcelona... so this news story should be of no surprise to anyone (IF it's alluding to Barcelona).

However, what Baron refuses to acknowledge is by the time Barcelona goes to volume shipping it'll be too late; Penryn will already be available... and at this stage it's doubtful Barcelona will be able to fend off Penryn.

I've read a few educated guess type articles about Penryn vs Barce, and don't get it why you say that. My impression is they should be on level, but with the possibility only that Penryn could jack up it's frequency so high it could have a title of fastest, but not necessarily best per watt (remains to be seen). If you feel AMd has to be significantly better in order to be OK, that's one thing, and perhaps that's your unstated presumption. But if AMD can simply match Intel reasonably well, that would be quite a bit better than where it has been for a year now, and IMO a good sign, since AMd can tweak it's process also. If Barce matches Penryn (is a little better per frequency, but lower frequency on ave), that's good enough in my mind. I guess my question is what does "fend off" mean?

Momentum.
C2D is no longer a question mark. It is now a proven performer. It took 2 quarters to prove it wasnt another Intel lie. It took 2 quarters to break AMDs K8 momentum.

Penryn is just an updated C2D @ 45nm. Its Uarch already has a proven track record, while its node does not. K10 is not quite the same. It is an extensively modified K8, but on a 'proven' (at least nearly so) node. Being as the releases of K10 and Penryn may be nearly simultainious, it puts them neck and neck in the race to prove themselves, meaning there may be no 'wiggle' room for K10 to win back market share or momentum. They are in the same boat, in that Intel must prove it can work (@45nm) while AMD must prove it can work (with a 'new' Uarch). They are in different boats in that AMD had nothing to counter C2D with last year, where as Intel has Penryn to counter Barcelona with. Its probably going to be another 2 quarters after the respective releases before any trends solidify, but this time Intel has the momentum advantage that AMD had last year

 

[NightlySputnik]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070604/0261144.html

Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NasdaqGM:CRAY - News) today announced that due to recent information with respect to the timing of volume parts availability, the company now believes that 2007 revenue associated with quad-core Cray XT4™ systems will likely be less than previously anticipated. Cray continues to anticipate deliveries of quad-core Cray XT4 systems and upgrades to begin during the fourth quarter of 2007; however, the timing is such that most or all of the planned acceptances, and associated revenue recognition, will likely be deferred until early 2008.

Cray uses AMD Opterons for it's computers. The XT4 is its first computer that can utilize quad core Opterons. Based on it's comments about "volume parts availability" you can draw your own inferences.


Sounds like what they're saying is exactly what AMD said. They will have volume but the revenue effect of Barcelona won't be felt until 08.

I agree with you on this one. Even if Barcelona totally wipe the floor with C2Q, the effect on AMD results won't be felt until 2008, and not before Q2 even then.

The same thing happenned with Intel when they released C2D. It took 6 months before Intel started gaining back market share from AMD. That's not what happenned for the enthousiast, but we're few and far between.

For grand-ma that heard for the last years that Intel now has the best cpu, it's gonna take more then a few Tom's and other sites review to change her mind.

I simply hope that it'll help reduce the amount of Fanboy out there on both side. I hope they'll get to see that both company work best when they have their back to the wall. It's this simple, unless AMD screw up Barcelona... and that would be bad in the long term for all of us, Intel fanboy included.

 

[NightlySputnik]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070604/0261144.html

Global supercomputer leader Cray Inc. (NasdaqGM:CRAY - News) today announced that due to recent information with respect to the timing of volume parts availability, the company now believes that 2007 revenue associated with quad-core Cray XT4™ systems will likely be less than previously anticipated. Cray continues to anticipate deliveries of quad-core Cray XT4 systems and upgrades to begin during the fourth quarter of 2007; however, the timing is such that most or all of the planned acceptances, and associated revenue recognition, will likely be deferred until early 2008.

Cray uses AMD Opterons for it's computers. The XT4 is its first computer that can utilize quad core Opterons. Based on it's comments about "volume parts availability" you can draw your own inferences.


Sounds like what they're saying is exactly what AMD said. They will have volume but the revenue effect of Barcelona won't be felt until 08.

I agree with you on this one. Even if Barcelona totally wipe the floor with C2Q, the effect on AMD results won't be felt until 2008, and not before Q2 even then.

The same thing happenned with Intel when they released C2D. It took 6 months before Intel started gaining back market share from AMD. That's not what happenned for the enthousiast, but we're few and far between.

For grand-ma that heard for the last years that Intel now has the best cpu, it's gonna take more then a few Tom's and other sites review to change her mind.

I simply hope that it'll help reduce the amount of Fanboy out there on both side. I hope they'll get to see that both company work best when they have their back to the wall. It's this simple, unless AMD screw up Barcelona... and that would be bad in the long term for all of us, Intel fanboy included.

 

[BaronMatrix]

Q4 starts in October. Q3 is right now. Tey said mid to late Q3 for shipments to start. Dell, HP, Sun will get the first batches. The Cray volume is good but they are niche where one server will have a few thousand CPUs, but the real volume is in 2P/4P.

Actually, Q3 starts in July. Right now, it's Q2.

D'oh. I must be working too hard. That's even better since AMD did say shipments in June and machines by Aug with some maybe debuting in July.Nice way of saying "i was wrong"....without actually having to say it... Damn, you dodged a bullet on that one. :roll:


Don't tell me....you're GOJDOs replacement. Comment on the topic or go elsewhere.

 

[fidgewinkle]

I said that we can only tell that there might be volume very late in the year, too late for Cray to get anything out the door before 2008. I said this is a best case scenario and it could be that Cray doesn't actually expect volume shipments until 2008.

This is nothing like C2D. There were volume shipments of C2D within a couple months of release. Clearly, such expectations for Barcelona don't exist at Cray and it is foolish to compare Barcelona expected volumes to what happened with C2D.

Did you take a special English class or something? Cray does not sell as many CPUs as Dell or HP. I would wait to hear from them before announcing

"no volume until 08"

But then I realize that you have to disagree with me and belittle AMD.

I am not belittling AMD. I am trying to correct your AMD slanted interpretation of the announcement. I didn't say "no volume until 08". Only someone with no ability to comprehend english would draw that conclusion. Here is the extent of what I said in one sentence.

AMD will not have volume shipments available until late Q4 at the earliest.

This conclusion is based upon the information available. As for Dell and HP. They aren't as sensitive to shipments for Opterons, so they don't really need to say a whole lot right now, so their silence is not information. It is a lack of information. When one of them makes an announcement, then I will re-adjust my assessment. This is how objective people make an analysis. We consider other possibilities, but don't wholesale invent reasons why this data isn't relevent.

Your silly take sides attitude not only prevents you from grasping any nuance in what you read, but apparently makes you inclined to assume that everyone else has taken a side. Some of us are interested in understanding what is actually going on. If I display a tendency to favor Intel right now, it is because I look at all of the indicators from them and see that they are doing very well. They are performing, and AMD is not. As soon as AMD gets their act together, I will give them the benefit of the doubt. Right now, they are struggling and showing no signs of improvement.

As to any particular loyalty, four of my last five computers have had AMD processors. The only Intel is a notebook, where AMD isn't remotely competitive. Three of those AMD computers were purchased based upon price/performance and one was pretty much a performance purchase. I don't build brand loyalty, because it is ridiculous. Loyalty is for sports teams and nations, not some corporation that exists for the sole purpose of making money. Investing one's own feeling of self worth in these companies is sad and pathetic.