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Inquirer blog: Barcelona on sale mid August (7 weeks time)

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June 20, 2007 11:50:24 PM

first they have to get it to work with oem mobo's and dram - and a get a decent bios
June 20, 2007 11:53:05 PM

Once they have a fully functional chip, that stuff will happen fast
June 21, 2007 1:19:13 AM

Quote:
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=40465

No info on speeds, pricing etc.

PS: No benchmarks either naturally :lol: 

I would disagree. Currently AMD is still working on the new revision. A new revision takes about 3 months to fix, manufacture, validate, before it can be redeemed.

If Computex is the latest batch of K10, then it would be at least until mid-Aug to complete its validation. After that, if AMD really need the processor bad, they would need to ramp the processor, without adjusting the manufacturing process to accommodate the new design.

This mean a higher defective probability, and lower production of working chip.

I would suspect it would be at least Sept, if not later, before we see Barcelona in reasonable quantity.

P.S. I wouldn't trust theInq anyway, but its just my insight on this matter.
June 21, 2007 3:18:35 AM

Quote:
http://www.theinquirer.net/default.aspx?article=40465

No info on speeds, pricing etc.

PS: No benchmarks either naturally :lol: 

I would disagree. Currently AMD is still working on the new revision. A new revision takes about 3 months to fix, manufacture, validate, before it can be redeemed.

If Computex is the latest batch of K10, then it would be at least until mid-Aug to complete its validation. After that, if AMD really need the processor bad, they would need to ramp the processor, without adjusting the manufacturing process to accommodate the new design.

This mean a higher defective probability, and lower production of working chip.

I would suspect it would be at least Sept, if not later, before we see Barcelona in reasonable quantity.

P.S. I wouldn't trust theInq anyway, but its just my insight on this matter.

Interestingly, AMD stocks (which had been trending downward today) rose like $0.19 in the two hours trading following the Inquirer article. The market is latching on to any good news regarding AMD and immediately reacting, even if it comes from a rumour mill like The Inq.

I've been following the charts very closely, almost hourly, since January. The 12-month trend has been down, certainly, but shares spike with even a whiff something positive.

Consensus is that AMD will lose approximately $450 million in 2Q07. Outlook for 3Q07 is also extremely poor. Even an "on time" Barcy launch in August won't help the balance sheet much this year. It took C2D the better part of a year to really gain traction. But none of that matters with AMD. The market wants the stock to rise.

I'm convinced that all it will take is one solid announcement from AMD to send shares soring thru the roof.
June 21, 2007 3:27:27 AM

Quote:
I'm convinced that all it will take is one solid announcement from AMD to send shares soring thru the roof.


Eh, aren't they likely to warn about the losses on the next quarterly report? And then they'll announce the bad news?

Well, timing is hard and frustrating. I'm playing the waiting game as far as that stock is concerned. I don't feel too "comfortable" right now.
June 21, 2007 4:26:19 AM

Quote:
I'm convinced that all it will take is one solid announcement from AMD to send shares soring thru the roof.


Eh, aren't they likely to warn about the losses on the next quarterly report? And then they'll announce the bad news?

Well, timing is hard and frustrating. I'm playing the waiting game as far as that stock is concerned. I don't feel too "comfortable" right now.

Correct. Warning at the end of the month, and the financial report mid July, right around the same time Intel's price cuts go into effect interestingly. Consensus for 2Q07 is ~ negative $0 .82 per share. But since everyone expects the financials to be terrible, it shouldn't have a massive negative effect on share prices since current valuation pressumable factors for this.

Same thing happened last quarter, if you'll recall. I believe shares actually rose the day AMD's financial statement was released (or maybe it was day of the warning, I don't recall exactly). I remember one analyst saying: "well, everyone knew it was going to be awful. What's awful times two?"
June 21, 2007 5:08:32 AM

tick tock tick tock

i should paste in one of those countdown timers, that way i can stop looking at this forum and just wait for toms to actually review k10.
June 21, 2007 6:20:46 AM

Quote:
tick tock tick tock

i should paste in one of those countdown timers, that way i can stop looking at this forum and just wait for toms to actually review k10.


Prolly better having it count up from the first time AMD announced K10, since no one really knows when its going to get here.
June 24, 2007 12:10:30 AM

Quote:
I'm convinced that all it will take is one solid announcement from AMD to send shares soring thru the roof.


Eh, aren't they likely to warn about the losses on the next quarterly report? And then they'll announce the bad news?

Well, timing is hard and frustrating. I'm playing the waiting game as far as that stock is concerned. I don't feel too "comfortable" right now.

Correct. Warning at the end of the month, and the financial report mid July, right around the same time Intel's price cuts go into effect interestingly. Consensus for 2Q07 is ~ negative $0 .82 per share. But since everyone expects the financials to be terrible, it shouldn't have a massive negative effect on share prices since current valuation pressumable factors for this.

Same thing happened last quarter, if you'll recall. I believe shares actually rose the day AMD's financial statement was released (or maybe it was day of the warning, I don't recall exactly). I remember one analyst saying: "well, everyone knew it was going to be awful. What's awful times two?"

If I recall correctly, some people may have been disappointed they wanted to double the shares perhaps to avoid a takeover. But when the quarterly report came out, they all of a sudden they wouldn't be hostile to an offer and announced they would reduce debt by selling assets etc. Of course, the first initial reaction was an immediate spike down followed by the larger move up we all saw later.

A sort of similar thing happened with XMSR. They announced they might merge with SIRI then the stock started going up. Of course, it's gone down since then but it gave me an idea. I call it the counter-intuitive trade. When a stock has gone down long enough, the CEOs get desperate to defend their stock and make statements that make the stocks go up when bad news is actually expected. Unexpected "positive" news comes out and the stock has a significant reaction.

Ah, in any case, all theories aside, I'd just like to see AMD have a massive dive and then they would announce smashing benchmarks for K10. The thing that would be really cool would be to see the stock move gradually. Sometimes a stock just gaps up and part of the move is already missed.
June 24, 2007 12:52:10 PM

lol, I just woke up from a weird dream where AMD had gapped up and was fluctuating wildly, so much so that I thought the quotes were wrong. OMG, I'm glad that was only a dream. lol, I thought I was going to go crazy. :lol: 
June 24, 2007 1:32:21 PM

Depending on where your money is some may call that a nightmare!
!