Seriously though, save up some money... by any means that you can do it, and buy a real graphics card.
Knowing that Oldblivion will make children cry makes me want to go download that even more now! Man, you shouldn't have told me that... that sounds a lot easier than taking candy away from babies and kicking puppies.No, in a word.
Oldblivion might make it run, but it will look so bad when small children look at the screen, while you playing it, they will cry.
I have 200M Xpress laptop but I never installed Oblivion. I have run other games.
Only current gen game that was playable with everything on low was FEAR. Doom 3 didn't run at playable levels and CoD 2 became a slide show during any fire fight.
If you want I'll install Oblivion and post my results so you don't have to waste $50. I'm sure it won't be pretty.
Other specs: Turion 64, 1 gb Ram, Windows XP
200 Xpress played games like Unreal 2 and Gothic 2 better than my 9600 but can't keep up with current gen games for the most part; only 2 pipes I think.
You may be able to play Oblivion with your X200M, but you will need to use a program called Oldblivion to omit using some DX9 features.
http://www.oldblivion.com/?page=docs&title=Supported+Cards
The X200M is not on the supported card list, but it is also not on the the unsupported list.
Youf best bet is to borrow Oblivion from a friend, install it on your PC, then install Oldblivion. If it seems to work and the graphics are acceptable, then go out and buy the game.
So I installed it along with Oldblivion and played around for a while, and (to my great surprise) the game actually played. I went through the tutorial and ran around outside the sewer gates for a bit.
Conclusions -
It isn't playable at a higher resolution than 640x480. Many images (like the king, when he first come through your jail cell) appear very pixelated; they look like they're from a mid 90's game.
During any sort of combat with more that two other characters on the screen the fps dip down below 10. You can make it through combat, but I have to say it's not that fun.
The average fps is probably between 10-20. Oldblivion did seem to improve it slightly. I didn't notice much difference in the quality of the visuals - they're all pretty bad.
It does run better than games like Doom 3 or CoD 2.
So, if you're desperate, you could make it through Oblivion with a 200M Xpress if you wanted to. But I just don't see the point.
If you strip away the graphics you're taking away what is far and away the games strongest feature. There's great RPGs out there that will run fine on your PC.
I would save my $50.