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what if?! intel has problems with shrink/yields at 45nm?

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July 3, 2007 5:05:07 PM

i gotta start threads like this!

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?

I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?

Granted they could start making 45watt 45nm c2d's, but its very likely they could be having problems getting them above 3ghz. Which would allow AMD to take the lead if they EVER release k10!!

leave you post glaze all over my topic!!
July 3, 2007 5:12:14 PM

The C2D and C2Q line will still be in the lead, Fan. from AMD will not sell because the C2Q line is so cheap compare to it. Only AMD fan will buy it. Normal people who care about performance:p rice will buy C2Q or C2D instead of buying Fan. or x2s .
July 3, 2007 6:06:37 PM

Assuming that was an honest question and not a fanboy trying to find a improbable possibility (Could be, I suppose), I'd be only happy for pressure being put on Intel to release better stuff or lower their prices more.
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July 3, 2007 6:08:31 PM

lol,"fan".

I love people who wish bad things to happen rather than wish their favorite companies could actually get their $hit together and build a competing product, if Intel fails then AMD will be the best!
July 3, 2007 6:11:33 PM

Intel dont really need 45nm, even if 45nm ramp was a complete disaster the 65nm C2Q chips will still walk all over what AMD have to offer.
July 3, 2007 6:11:45 PM

Seems that they'll do the same thing they are planning with the 65nm to 45nm transition. AMD may transition from 45nm to 32nm within a year in order to stay, step to step with Intels Pace. Hardly a possibility that 45nm Core 2 Duo/Quad's won't rock at least as much(if not more) as they already do.
July 3, 2007 6:56:48 PM

what if AMD is dead by then?

what if IBM comes up with this amazing new powerpc architecture which runs circles around intel and AMD grabbing 95% of the processor market share?

what if the world gets destroyed by global warming/nuclear holocaust/new virus by then? :twisted:

:lol: 
a b à CPUs
a b å Intel
July 3, 2007 6:58:51 PM

If Intel hits some serious difficulties in moving to 45 nm I'll bet that AMD hits them too. Considering that Intel has a good advance and a lot more cash for R&D, I'd say such difficulties would delay Intel less than AMD and Intel's lead would increase, not decrease. If you're rooting for AMD and I just destroyed your last hope please accept my apologies :p 
a b à CPUs
a b å Intel
July 3, 2007 7:03:58 PM

What if there's a new Ice Age and we didn't do enough global warming to prevent it? Or maybe locusts eat everything and we all starve to death. OK, this topic is fun, but should it really be on the CPU forum :lol:  :lol: 
July 3, 2007 7:10:21 PM

what if all the world is a stage just or my benefit and i get run over by a truck thereby causing the universe to stop existing? :twisted:

ok ok i gotta stop! :D 
July 3, 2007 7:20:08 PM

Quote:

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?

I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?


Look; of course they have problems getting to 45 nm. That's clear. If they didn't, they'd be releasing smaller and therefore more profitable 45 nm parts now.

What they have got is also a plan, a roadmap, to deal with the problems that they know of now. There will be teams of people dealing with the problems with the intention of making them all go away by the time of production release. Right this minute, there will probably be engineers tearing their hair out at some of the problems, but that's what they are paid for. Maybe some unanticipated problems will come up. Maybe the problems will be easier to solve than anticipated and they allow some of the engineers out in the hours of daylight.

If history is any guide, what Intel will also do is prepare a position whereby they can sell initial parts, which may well have a frighteningly low yield, at high prices so that they can afford it. And they have the kind of bank balance that allows them to take a long term decision if strategy means that they have to over-ride the short term profitability, particularly for a low volume, high performance part.

While being far from an Intel fanboy, I have to comment that Intel probably has the industry's best record at getting the introduction of this kind of technology step right, so I don't see why you should be suggesting that there is a 'show stopper' unless you have some evidence.
July 3, 2007 7:44:10 PM

wtf?
1) Intel has already demonstrated 45nm processors working at 3.33ghz. Doesn't sound like any major problems with the 45nm process to me!
2) Intel is building, as fast as it can, two new 45nm fabs, to join the one existing. You can't produce something in quantity without the equipment to do it. And you can't make 45nm products on equipment designed for 65 nm.
Once the new fabs are online, you'll start seeing the 45nm processors in short order.

Intels says:

Intel's 45nm Manufacturing
Intel is currently developing its 45nm process on 300mm wafers in Hillsboro, Oregon, in D1D ... two new 300mm fabs are being built for the coming 45nm ramp: Fab 32 in Ocotillo, Arizona (production due to start in the second half of 2007) and Fab 28 in Israel (production to start in the first half of 2008).
July 3, 2007 8:05:43 PM

We'd all have to go back to OCing our P4s to heat things back up!
July 3, 2007 8:13:40 PM

What if we get hit by a meteor and all life on the planet is extinguished :?:

No really, what if people would cease starting ridiculous BS threads on the forums :?:
July 3, 2007 8:16:50 PM

Quote:
If Intel hits some serious difficulties in moving to 45 nm I'll bet that AMD hits them too. Considering that Intel has a good advance and a lot more cash for R&D, I'd say such difficulties would delay Intel less than AMD and Intel's lead would increase, not decrease. If you're rooting for AMD and I just destroyed your last hope please accept my apologies :p 


Well remember, it appears AMD has already been having problems at 65nm. Theyre highest clock @65nm will be the 2.7GHz 5600---when it gets released which was supposed to be sometime last month. Intel has been @ 2.93Ghz with the 6800 since C2D was released. The AMD 90 nms are getting around 3.0~3.2 OCs on air, while the highest Ive seen with AMDs 65nm on air are around 3Ghz(if anybody has any recent AMD 65nm OC reviews, could you post a link please....I havent seen one in awhile), while the Intels have been been pressing up to 3.9GHz on air, and even over 4 with the ESs from last year.

Someone mentioned in another thread it may be in AMDs best interest to skip ahead to 45nm as quickly as possible, and that may be a good stratedgy for them as their 65nm process hasnt seemed to be working all that well relative to the competitions. With 45nm AMD will to go to a new process, and it appears that is just the thing they need to do.
July 3, 2007 8:31:07 PM

Quote:
What if there's a new Ice Age and we didn't do enough global warming to prevent it? Or maybe locusts eat everything and we all starve to death. OK, this topic is fun, but should it really be on the CPU forum :lol:  :lol: 

i would sit my pc outdifr opened case and oc it and mel the icebergs. i would get 400ghz? ^_^
July 3, 2007 9:40:51 PM

Yep thats right folks the core2duos will beat AMD's brand new products. They are that thick that they aren't going to improve theirs at all.

So many people seriously over-rate core2duos.. yes they are good, but not that good...

AMD's Agena X4 wont be as cheap as core2quad by any means but it should walk all over it.
July 3, 2007 10:40:30 PM

Quote:
Yep thats right folks the core2duos will beat AMD's brand new products. They are that thick that they aren't going to improve theirs at all.
So many people seriously over-rate core2duos.. yes they are good, but not that good...
AMD's Agena X4 wont be as cheap as core2quad by any means but it should walk all over it.
---------------------------------------------
Na na na na na na na na HATMAN!

Na na na na na na na na Twat Man.

I know it’s juvenile but Fan boys wind me up.
July 3, 2007 10:51:58 PM

Quote:
Yep thats right folks the core2duos will beat AMD's brand new products. They are that thick that they aren't going to improve theirs at all.
So many people seriously over-rate core2duos.. yes they are good, but not that good...
AMD's Agena X4 wont be as cheap as core2quad by any means but it should walk all over it.
---------------------------------------------
Na na na na na na na na HATMAN!

Na na na na na na na na Twat Man.

I know it’s juvenile but Fan boys wind me up.


So you're saying I'm a twat because I think AMD isn't stupid enough to make a whole new product that doesn't match an older product? You're calling me a fanboy because I think AMD might have a desent product coming out?

Their quad core SHOULD perform better than the core2quad as long as it has half desent frequencies.

I think I've got pretty good reasoning behind my point.. you haven't its just an insult. And a bad one.

Grow up.
July 3, 2007 10:54:37 PM

what if... my Aunt had balls?

She'd be my Uncle!
:roll:
July 3, 2007 11:12:09 PM

Quote:
So you're saying I'm a twat because I think AMD isn't stupid enough to make a whole new product that doesn't match an older product? You're calling me a fanboy because I think AMD might have a desent product coming out?
Their quad core SHOULD perform better than the core2quad as long as it has half desent frequencies.
I think I've got pretty good reasoning behind my point.. Grow up.

I called you a twat because your post stunk of the smell of a fanboy and contained nothing but meaningless vagaries. When I read your signature it confirmed my suspicion and my infantile nature took over and I couldn’t help but respond in a puerile and immature way.
I apologise, I’m too old to be insulting teenagers; have a nice day.

P.S. I’m pretty confident that Phenom is a good architecture, but whether they can produce it at high enough clocks with a good enough yield in a timely manner is looking very touch and go right now. If so I might well pop one in my current main rig.
July 3, 2007 11:19:03 PM

Really, quite right.
Now if the OP had asked about Intel's migration to DISCREET 32nm cores in the Nehalem series, we'd have more room for idle speculation. But Intel probably won't have much trouble after it "sees the Barcy", and figures out what NOT to do. Oh yeah, make it smaller, so the yields go up.

Keeping it reasonably cool will be the real test IMHO. However, as H2O cooling becomes more acceptable, the desire for heat reduction diminishes... air cooled processors ruled out b/4 4thQ 2009.

f61
July 3, 2007 11:33:18 PM

Quote:
what if... my Aunt had balls?

She'd be my Uncle!
:roll:


I like your logic...
but careful, your aunt might "bang" you...
July 4, 2007 12:31:33 AM

We'll see what the INTEL shrink yields us when it comes out. Same for AMD.

Until then, we can play games as long as we want. This thread should be closed unless someone actually found an article on Intel facing shrinking problems.
July 4, 2007 1:06:41 AM

Quote:

So you're saying I'm a twat because I think AMD isn't stupid enough to make a whole new product that doesn't match an older product?


2400 Pro, 2600Pro/XT, 2900XT... :wink: :lol: 

To be fair AMD probably came along too late to do anything much to the R600 series cards, but the point still stands.

For what its worth, I do believe a 2GHz Barcelona would be slower than the fastest Clovertown, and I do believe Phenom would be slower than a Penryn unless it scales exceptionally well, which seems unlikely at this point. It may match Conroe, but that won't be what AMD is competing against by the time it comes out.
July 4, 2007 1:25:52 AM

Quote:

leave you post glaze all over my topic!!


I find this rather disturbing.
July 4, 2007 1:28:17 AM

Actually the R600's are a pretty worthy adversary to the 8X00(Budget and Mainstream) line, the R600s seem to get better and better per driver update.

Hopefully AMDs K10's are at least price-performance comparable with the Core 2 Quads, even if they are not as overclockable as much isn't the issue It's only a set off for the small segment of Overclockers that we make up, because most of the sales come from stock performance for most Businesses and Corporation Servers not the very few that the corner store sells to the Average Joe, though very important but not as important because most of them are buying the Garbage Bins (Celerons @ Wal-Mart).
July 4, 2007 1:39:03 AM

About as likely as AMD releasing killer products on both the CPU and GPU market by the end of 2007. :lol: 
July 4, 2007 1:49:02 AM

Quote:
what if AMD is dead by then?

what if IBM comes up with this amazing new powerpc architecture which runs circles around intel and AMD grabbing 95% of the processor market share?

what if the world gets destroyed by global warming/nuclear holocaust/new virus by then? :twisted:

:lol: 


Don't think it will matter as the world is ending in 2012. So says the Mayan calendar. :twisted:
July 4, 2007 1:58:01 AM

What if AMD can actually deliver a worthy processor in 2007 that can save its ass? :!:
July 4, 2007 2:07:40 AM

Quote:
i gotta start threads like this!

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?

I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?

Granted they could start making 45watt 45nm c2d's, but its very likely they could be having problems getting them above 3ghz. Which would allow AMD to take the lead if they EVER release k10!!

leave you post glaze all over my topic!!

C2D shrinking doesn't become important until Intel gets Penry out. Even at that point C2D will stay at 65nm until Intel has extra 45nm production over Penry for the C2D and C2Q.

If you mean Penry it needs no shrink as it was designed for 45nm.

Breaking 3GHz with C2D isn't going to be important at 45nm as Penry will replace them at the top end.
July 4, 2007 2:20:31 AM

Quote:
Actually the R600's are a pretty worthy adversary to the 8X00(Budget and Mainstream) line, the R600s seem to get better and better per driver update.


My point was to the poster who suggested it would be ludicrous for AMD to release a part that is slower than the competitors previous generation. I merely pointed out that it just happened, multiple times, with the release of the R600 series cards. The only way they are 'competitive' is due to their pricing because from a performance perspective they underperform nVidias 8x00 series cards.

The same can be said of AMD's upcoming K10 CPUs, they may not necessarily take out the crown, but if it's price competitive when it's a start. Still wouldn't help AMD's ASP/margins much until they get the performance crown back though, which is the worrying part.
July 4, 2007 2:32:49 AM

Quote:
i gotta start threads like this!

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?

I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?

Granted they could start making 45watt 45nm c2d's, but its very likely they could be having problems getting them above 3ghz. Which would allow AMD to take the lead if they EVER release k10!!

leave you post glaze all over my topic!!

C2D shrinking doesn't become important until Intel gets Penry out. Even at that point C2D will stay at 90nm until Intel has extra 45nm production over Penry for the C2D and C2Q.

If you mean Penry it needs no shrink as it was designed for 45nm.

Breaking 3GHz with C2D isn't going to be important at 45nm as Penry will replace them at the top end.There are no 90nm Core 2s; the entire Core line is 65nm.
July 4, 2007 2:44:23 AM

Quote:
i gotta start threads like this!

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?

I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?

Granted they could start making 45watt 45nm c2d's, but its very likely they could be having problems getting them above 3ghz. Which would allow AMD to take the lead if they EVER release k10!!

leave you post glaze all over my topic!!

C2D shrinking doesn't become important until Intel gets Penry out. Even at that point C2D will stay at 90nm until Intel has extra 45nm production over Penry for the C2D and C2Q.

If you mean Penry it needs no shrink as it was designed for 45nm.

Breaking 3GHz with C2D isn't going to be important at 45nm as Penry will replace them at the top end.There are no 90nm Core 2s; the entire Core line is 65nm.
:lol:  :lol:  :lol: 
a c 96 à CPUs
July 4, 2007 3:25:41 AM

Quote:
i gotta start threads like this!

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?


First, that's not very likely. Intel showed working 45 nm chips at reasonable clock speeds a while ago, so we know that at least D1D can make them. That would insure at least a small supply of the chips to market if Intel botched the 45 nm rollout in other fabs. But if you have it working in one place, at the very worst you'd simply have delays in shipping the product. That's certainly surmountable.

Quote:
I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?


Then they sell the 45 nm chips at very high clock speeds for a ton of money. They will be the fastest chips on the market, so Intel could do that. Meanwhile, they are working like mad on the 45 nm rollout as well as perfecting the 65 nm process to get almost perfect yields and even better binning on the current chips. That's exactly what AMD has done with 90 nm- they are planning on shipping 3.0 GHz K8 X2s that consume 89 watts in not too long. That's a whopping 800 MHz increase with no TDP increase on the same node- the first X2s with an 89 W TDP were 2.20 GHz.

Quote:
Granted they could start making 45watt 45nm c2d's, but its very likely they could be having problems getting them above 3ghz. Which would allow AMD to take the lead if they EVER release k10!!


If Intel had speed problems with the 45 nm chips, they would do exactly as you said- use the new process to make slower chips and use the proven 65 nm process to make the faster ones. Sounds suspiciously similar to what another CPU maker is doing, doesn't it?

And a parting shot, Intel has already demoed a 45 nm Wolfdale dual-core at 3.33 GHz with a regular-looking heatsink that didn't seem to get too hot. This is an exercise in what-ifs, pretty much- the real world info seems to say that the transition is going just fine.
July 4, 2007 3:29:42 AM

Quote:
i gotta start threads like this!

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?

I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?

Granted they could start making 45watt 45nm c2d's, but its very likely they could be having problems getting them above 3ghz. Which would allow AMD to take the lead if they EVER release k10!!

leave you post glaze all over my topic!!

C2D shrinking doesn't become important until Intel gets Penry out. Even at that point C2D will stay at 90nm until Intel has extra 45nm production over Penry for the C2D and C2Q.

If you mean Penry it needs no shrink as it was designed for 45nm.

Breaking 3GHz with C2D isn't going to be important at 45nm as Penry will replace them at the top end.

dont take this the wrong way but you are so out of it ... it is not even funny
a c 96 à CPUs
July 4, 2007 3:33:32 AM

Quote:
what if AMD is dead by then?


Not going to happen. AMD is pretty much Intel's only competitor. They'd get bailed out by the government in order to prevent Intel from being able to name prices on chips that have very small speed increases over time.

Quote:
what if IBM comes up with this amazing new powerpc architecture which runs circles around intel and AMD grabbing 95% of the processor market share?


IBM has come up with a PowerPC chip that runs circles around the x86 chips, at least from what I saw from the SPEC benchmarks. The Power6 at 4.7 GHz is a beast. But even if IBM sold them for a nickel, Intel and AMD would still have almost all of the desktop market share. The reason is that almost all of the programs and OSes run are ONLY for x86. Pretty much only people who use the open-source UNIX clones and only open-source applications would be able to jump immediately. They'd just compile everything from the same source as they did on x86 and be on their merry way. (I'm in that group- as long as the GNU compiler will run on the CPU, I'd be able to use it.) It would take some time to be able to port everything else from x86 to PowerPC. By that time, if AMD and Intel weren't absolutely brain-dead, they'd have something competitive, stalling out the porting and keeping people on x86.

Quote:
what if the world gets destroyed by global warming/nuclear holocaust/new virus by then? :twisted:

:lol: 


We'd die, of course. Duh!!
July 4, 2007 4:06:17 AM

Quote:
About as likely as AMD releasing killer products on both the CPU and GPU market by the end of 2007. :lol: 
Tho I dont think Intel will have major problems with 45nm, Im thinking youre wrong about the AMD cpu gpu thing. Just MHO
July 4, 2007 6:16:04 AM

Quote:

So you're saying I'm a twat because I think AMD isn't stupid enough to make a whole new product that doesn't match an older product?


2400 Pro, 2600Pro/XT, 2900XT... :wink: :lol: 


Yep... they are damn good cards. Your point? :) 


Quote:

To be fair AMD probably came along too late to do anything much to the R600 series cards, but the point still stands.


Nah it doesnt, they are alrite for their price. Can match GTX sometimes and othertimes come on par with the GTS. Not bad.

Quote:


For what its worth, I do believe a 2GHz Barcelona would be slower than the fastest Clovertown, and I do believe Phenom would be slower than a Penryn unless it scales exceptionally well, which seems unlikely at this point. It may match Conroe, but that won't be what AMD is competing against by the time it comes out.


I dont think the new AMD dual cores will match the current core2duo's.. but I think their phenom X4 will beat the core2quads.
July 4, 2007 11:08:29 AM

Quote:
what if AMD is dead by then?

what if IBM comes up with this amazing new powerpc architecture which runs circles around intel and AMD grabbing 95% of the processor market share?

what if the world gets destroyed by global warming/nuclear holocaust/new virus by then? :twisted:

:lol: 


Don't think it will matter as the world is ending in 2012. So says the Mayan calendar. :twisted:

You people just don't get it do you!! The decepticons are here NOW!! If Optimus does not beat Megatron humanity is surely doomed :cry: 

Besides, who cares about 45nm. Bigger is better right :wink:
July 4, 2007 12:48:39 PM

Quote:
Quote:

So you're saying I'm a twat because I think AMD isn't stupid enough to make a whole new product that doesn't match an older product?


I dont think the new AMD dual cores will match the current core2duo's.. but I think their phenom X4 will beat the core2quads.

True. But c2q's are today's processors, and phenom X4 is tomorrows processor. Apples and oranges. You're comparing the Wright Flyer to an F16.
July 4, 2007 1:08:53 PM

The better comparison would be Nehalem to Phenom. They should be competing in the market at approximately the same time. It should be a great time for us, the consumer.
July 4, 2007 2:59:47 PM

Quote:
i gotta start threads like this!

but seriously! what if intel is having problems with shrinking the c2d line?

I mean there are several steps along the way they could develop problems with an immature process. What if the yields of the higher bin 45nm line are super low?

Granted they could start making 45watt 45nm c2d's, but its very likely they could be having problems getting them above 3ghz. Which would allow AMD to take the lead if they EVER release k10!!

leave you post glaze all over my topic!!

C2D shrinking doesn't become important until Intel gets Penry out. Even at that point C2D will stay at 90nm until Intel has extra 45nm production over Penry for the C2D and C2Q.

If you mean Penry it needs no shrink as it was designed for 45nm.

Breaking 3GHz with C2D isn't going to be important at 45nm as Penry will replace them at the top end.There are no 90nm Core 2s; the entire Core line is 65nm.
Sorry I made a mistake and put 90nm where it should be 65nm. That would be a jump from 90nm to 45nm.
July 4, 2007 3:11:45 PM

What will happen?
Look at AMD, they cant seem to get their old new process working.

In short: You just cant release the CPU.
July 4, 2007 3:32:57 PM

Quote:

Yep... they are damn good cards. Your point? :) 


Hardly. We've seen seen the 2600XT lag behind the X1650 XT and 7600 GT in some benchmarks. That's real lackluster performance.

Quote:

Nah it doesnt, they are alrite for their price. Can match GTX sometimes and othertimes come on par with the GTS. Not bad.


Not when Anti-Aliasing is enabled. Who buys a high end card not to use Anti-Aliasing and Anisotropic Filtering?





My main qualm is that Ati did not raise the bar at all this time around. They did not force Nvidia to react by cutting prices or introducing faster parts. Instead Nvidia gets away with pricing the 8800 Ultra at a crazy $829! I certainly hope Ati gets into gear and releases faster parts that are more competitive ASAP.
!