AMD, Black Knight or White Knight, time is short

[dragonsprayer]

After reading THG's excellent article "Analysis: AMD's technology opiate" can not help but being a little depressed - even as the hard core IFB you all know me to be! Wow not only is ATI a mess but AMD maybe sinking from a non-reversible debt hole. That is bad news for hard core intel fans.

Back in feb-mar of this year when amd stock was heading to below 13, I was sure it was the bottom and stock would go up -a lucky guess no doubt? I posted that bottom was here and now was time to buy Well, I am recanting now after reading the THG assessment of AMD's state. I am not a stock analyst nor do have a licence to do so - this is not advice to buy stock - consult an expert. This is just advice to consult your expert if you own AMD, some puts might be prudent.

Well, i must now reverse that call and the stock is highly likely to sink below 10. This could be the the point a black or white knight we be looking for a quick profit or cheap technology. We all be a lost without AMD if its blended into Sammy or big blue. The Koreans would love to add AMD to the "triad"

There are 3 things along with AMD's presentation with week, that could result in AMD as gone. First Intel stock price fell below the 23.60 level this was a key break out - intel may retest the lows - this means amd will follow. Second, sub prime mess is now a prime mess as those folks who speculated on real estate with their homes have to pay the piper. You know these folks trading up houses, living big just a year ago or so. Capital is drying up, this means the white knight will be less likely to save the helpless amd damsel.

I will state I am planning on buying Intel stock at these prices if they stay below $23.60, its going to $32 once again - then up and up! I really liked AMD stock too untill I read the results of this weeks presentation.

Ok, everyone buy an amd processor this week even if you just put it on the shelf.

PS: I got my Hellgate London invite today! Anyone who new me "HolyWarrior" on USeast DX2-HCL, GoGo!

 

[dragonsprayer]

7/30/07 if anyone cares! intel traded up 55cents and closed above 23.60 this is really good for amd and amd shares were next to unchanged.

as long as intel stays above this level amd has a chance!

 

[bydesign]

7/30/07 if anyone cares! intel traded up 55cents and closed above 23.60 this is really good for amd and amd shares were next to unchanged.

as long as intel stays above this level amd has a chance!

I'm not really sure what you're on about but neither is a very good investment in the big scheme of things. If you think they are you would greatly benefit from a good financial advisor.

 

[weskurtz81]

Um, what are you talking about man? AMD stock has found a trading range that it likes. It will take quite a bit to get it back below $10 again. I am not saying it won't happen, but why, if you are into stocks, would you profit take and get out of a stock when it is going down, and buy back into it when it's going up? Intel normally goes up for a few days, then sideways and down for a few days, why not sell when it isn't making you money and increase the money in the trading account? There is just as much money to be made trading AMD stock as well, no point in buying either of them as a long term investment, it is not a sound idea since the tech industry is very volatile. You will often end up losing the little profit you made by sitting on either of the stocks over a longer term then selling and taking profit.

 

[paladin13]

Its quite obvious though that due to AMD price cuts and performance per watt and per $, AMD remains steady as far as concerning sales. Ofcourse income is much smaller an this is a problem. AMD chose to drop and sell rather that stay expensive and sell CPU's only to fanboys.

On the other hand there's something that hasn't been mentioned. If AMD improves further ATI drivers and produces new GFX cards, then sales from ATI will also assist!

Everyone talks about debts from ATI but ATI can help if sales go up!

Finally as far as concerning the IBM-Samsung scenario, I really hope we dont reach this level. It would be a disaster. A potential buyer that has not been mentioned is... Intel!

Can you imagine the 3dfx - nvidia scenario happening again?

Intel CAN buy AMD and they will consider doing it! The reason is simple! Kill AMD and have a monopoly! Samsung or IBM (to be honest I would prefer Samsung as a company...they have superior products) can boost the company but Intel does not like that because of the competition.

Buying AMD is Intel's greatest monopoly chance.

So I think we all need to help AMD out of this (shouldn't have bought a Core 2 and a 7900GT 8 months ago...)

 

[dragonsprayer]

Well i got a 92 on the series 7 and i have an material engineer degree from a big 10 school - you combine you get stock predictions on Intel - for a hobby. I was a financial planner for 1 month at American Express - I left since anyone can do that and most of them had no idea what they were doing that was before the crash in 2000 needless to say many people lost alot money and they changed their name to americprise.

If you look at a long term chart of amd you see it was on a long slide never stable - you see it bottom this spring and has retested those lows. you can draw line from the peak to 10 from around mid 2005 - the $10 point is reached in 3-4 months from now.

as long as intel stays at these levels it will go higher - their profits will go up will the new wave of buying and lower productions costs - the cuts and spin offs will pay off too.

again - why? why not!

no amd and we be paying a $1000 for cpu's not $296 like the q6600 i just order or $209 for the e6750 from zip zoomer

 

[weskurtz81]

I still would not use either of these two companies as a long term investment. If the future AMD tech is powerful enough to take market share back from Intel, then, your Intel predictions will be wrong. Sure, Intel might go up for a short period and then fall back to what you bought in for. But, why waste your time trying to invest long term in either of these two companies? Swing trade them, it's fairly easy. As far as AMD stock never stabilizing, it did stabilize above $12.60. It bounced off of 12.60 and started a new trading range between $13 and a little over $16. You could use the argument that it hasn't been trading at this range long enough to call it stable, but, I disagree. It isn't as easy as drawing a line to predict the future. Sure, you can make assumptions, but, you need way more than one indicator to make a sound decision regarding stock trading. Just because AMD has been trading in this range, only means that this is what the stock is currently worth. For AMD stock to tank more, it will require more bad news from AMD. If Barcelona and the derivatives work out well, the stock will rebound, if not it will fall even more. But, that call can not be made today, by anyone.

 

[MU_Engineer]

First thing: investing in single stocks are *ridiculous* if you are an individual investor. Leave that to people who do it for a living and buy a much broader investment like a mutual fund or bond funds and such. Making a lot of money in the stock market is all about time. The market as a whole has historically gone up seven percent a year. Sure, getting a much more sure 5% to 9% from a fund every year isn't as exciting as doubling your money betting on a stock, but you'll be far, far more likely not to lose it all. It's nice and all to speculate and bet on stock performance, but you can still play the game without actually putting real money into the stock.

Secondly, past performance does not guarantee future returns. There are trends and some end up being more right than others, but they generally defy even the smartest and most astute of financial statisticians (trust me, I know some of these guys.) They defy prediction because markets do not behave rationally- people sometimes buy and sell on emotion. Panicking and selling is one big example of that.

Third, almost all of the CPUs we're talking about here make barely a drop in the bucket of sales for either company. Most CPUs sold today in the U.S. are laptop processors anyway, with the budget to midrange units selling the most units and dollars by far. AMD competes very well in this market and has something over 2 in every 5 low-to-midrange notebooks powered by their chips. The low-to-midrange rule applies even with desktops. Quad-core CPUs are quite a bit away from being a mainstream part and thus more or less irrelevant. The only segment with decent revenues that does heavily use quads are servers. The same is true for graphics- most units are IGP and don't even have a GPU. AMD's Radeon x1250 is plenty competitive with Intel's GMA X3100 and NVIDIA's GeForce 6100/6150 and 7050. The discrete GPUs that do ship are usually lower-end units like GF 7300s and 8500s, or Radeon x1300s and HD 2400s rather than GF 8800 and Radeon 2900 parts. Again, AMD/ATi is competitive and sells quite a few units.

Fourth, Intel would *never* be allowed by the FTC to purchase AMD and have >95% of the CPU market and 99% of the x86 CPU market. Their only competitor is VIA since Transmeta went to be a patent-holder-only company. Intel knows this and would never buy AMD because even if they could, they'd be split up by the DOJ a la AT&T in 1984. AMD may very well be bought, but it's certainly not going to be Intel doing it. My guess would be somebody like IBM or Samsung or perhaps a private-equity firm. I'd hope it would be Samsung as they're private but not interested in a "pump and dump" scheme that guts a company in a few years for great short-term payoffs. That's what a lot of private equity firms do and why Motorola is fighting off Carl Icahn with a stick.

Fifth, AMD is not debuting 3.0 GHz 10h Phenom X4s any time soon. The expected launch speed of the Barcelona server chips is 2.00 GHz and will work on up to 2.5 GHz by Q4. The Phenom X4s should clock similarly to the Barcelonas as they are the same die and silicon, so 2.5 GHz or so, not 3.0 GHz. That 3.0 GHz part was certainly overclocked and might have even been a dual-core 10h rather than the quad- I didn't see and didn't remember hearing anywhere exactly what it was other than a 3.00 GHz 10h. Even if it was a 10h quad at 3.00 GHz, AMD isn't releasing 10h quads at 3.00 GHz. I am sure they have a good reason (yields, heat production) because a 2.00 GHz 10h quad isn't supposed to beat Intel's fastest and I'm sure as shooting that AMD would love to do that if they could as it would let them set prices and not Intel. I am sure that there will be 3.00 GHz Phenom X4s out there, but not any time soon. AMD tweaks their processes enough to milk ever more clock speed out of existing chips- 90 nm went from the 2.4 GHz X2 4800+ being the top chip to the 3.0 GHz X2 6000+ and there is a 3.2 GHz X2 6400+ supposed to debut as well, also on 90 nm. They'll get the chip to that speed, just expect it a year from the X4 release.

Sixth, we'd not be paying $1000 for CPUs for very long if there wasn't AMD. The market does not work like that. IBM, Freescale, Sun, or anybody else would see a great opportunity to waltz in and offer to sell a CPU that performs as well of better for much less cash than Intel wants. It wouldn't be x86 or x86_64, but even the pain of emulating a boatload of legacy x86 Windoze apps would be forgotten when a computer costs $800 less per unit than going with an Intel CPU. Intel would counter by selling CPUs that are just good enough and priced just low enough to make the migration cost of x86 -> other arch high enough that most folks would stay on x86. Sure, you'd pay more for CPUs, but it wouldn't be 3-5 times as much as you pay now. And remember what's actually keeping people on x86- third-party proprietary Windows applications. Microsoft has made Windows for anything from the DEC Alpha to the Itanium, so they can release on whatever arch they want, Office included. It's just getting some application that you or a business uses migrated to the new arch that's a real pain in the butt. If the push is strong enough, a move off x86 will happen and Intel will go down the tubes. Intel isn't overly stupid, so they'll use the Windows app lockin as an asset and not abuse it too much.

 

[weskurtz81]

And, there you have it.....

 

[dragonsprayer]

intel holds at 23.62 yesterday, as predicted

today intel bounces back to over 24 as predicted

amd continues to fall as predicted but is supported by intel holding 23.62 key break out point, amd is going to 10, where the cash will dry up and they forced to sell part or all

best case is they sell part to a sammy or biggie blue
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jim cramer says - own 4-5 groups

that means for anyone below 50 80% money in aggresive invenstments like stocks

no more then 20% in anyone sector

my advice: is buy intel and sell amd at 1:2 ratio - buy intel stock 100 shares sell amd stocks 200 shares ...... again, i am not a stock broker, i am licenced to give advice - this is a cpu forum and i am just telling you what i think!

 

[Gh0stDrag0n]

Looks like dragonsprayer wants the price of AMD to drop so he can buy before Barcelona and Phenom are launched.

 

[dragonsprayer]

lol

i am really looking forward to barcie - i think its going to rock after amd gets the bios and bugs out.

i just hope it overclocks

on the extreme side with c2d's running 4ghz and 6850 hitting 3.8ghz -with out any issues. the new doped gates will allow huge increases in clock speed - combine with intel's leading in shrinking dies - amd has its work cut out for them

 

[weskurtz81]

Are you kidding me man? You never made a prediction, you said IF, you didn't say the were going to make certain moves. Regardless, INTC is still in a downward trend until it closes above $25.26 or another peak that it creates below that one. Sure it came up from $23.68, but, it still has a long way to go to prove it's going to the $30 level. It wouldn't be able to do that right now because the stock isn't worth it at even a dollar more than what it's trading at. Intel's P/E ratio is already at 25, so, in reality the stock is on the edge of being worth more than it should be. Oh, and Jim Cramer is a clown man. Some advice he gives can be ok, but, he uses his influence on the markets all the time, because people listen to him and do what he says like robots. Don't always take what he says at face value.

 

[dragonsprayer]

lol

wow a down trend - np- you need to go back further then 2 weeks, try 6 months or longer draw a line of 18 or so - i am guessing since i don't study charts

all in fun!

 

[weskurtz81]

dragonsprayer, the entire market is one a down trend right now, it is going to correct/retrace in the the couple weeks. It has already started, and somewhere around the middle of the month we could see another big sell off. Something caused Intel to gap down a week or two ago(I don't care to look at the chart right now), the stock lost a couple of points. So, sure in the long term, the stock was working it's way up, but, now it started moving down. So, short term yes, it started a downtrend, luckily for Intel it hasn't crossed the 200dma, but it did just go below the 20 and the 50. To assume Intel is on an uptrend until the market proves it to you will lose you money. It has to be a short term trend before it becomes a long term trend.

 

[dragonsprayer]

well, i can say, if you had followed what i wrote yesterday

bought 100 shares of intel and sold 200 shares of amd you would have 82 profit today

amd gain -55 cents x 2 - short = $110. intel loss -28cents = long -$28 loss, net = $92 profit in one day!

enough said?

intel is in a head and shoulders top - the formation is vailid over the exact time frame as it has formed meaning its very likely from "technical trading" its at a top

fundmentally intel kicks azz - bottom line is after any new drops, or sell offs you should buy??????

again all in fun

another lucky guess yesterday?

amd is now at new lows not seen since 2002 - it is not in stable trading range as was printed above by another person

another lucky guess?

 

[weskurtz81]

I agree more with this post. With the exception of AMD, it might fall more, but it has not yet established a new low. Once it breaks the $12.71 close on 4/4/2007 and the $12.60 low on the following day, then I will agree with you about AMD. The fundies of Intel are pretty good though, and I would like to see it fall a few points before I buy into it. I wouldn't call them lucky guesses, but, I to can look at stochastics and RSI CCI and all the others to tell you which way the stock is likely to go. I don't think AMD will go below $10 unless the market tanks, and if/when the market tanks, it is possible. We shall see.

 

[dragonsprayer]

sell netflix and buy block buster 1:4 ratio

 

[weskurtz81]

yeah, I can agree with that. BBI is a buy over NFLX. As for AMD, today it broke through the low, so, you seem to be on track. It might get back below the sub $10 level, but i am not as certain of it as you are. We will have to wait and see what it closes at though. Whatcha think about the market in general? I have a good friend in the mortgage biz, and he says we have yet to get to the bottom of the sub prime problem. He speculates that some time in the next 15-30 days that we will get some very bad news on the sub prime problem coming out, and it will spread much further. He says it is much worse than is being let on. Another friend of mine says to watch for major turn in the market on the 15th of August. He expects it to run up to the 15th, and then on or about the 15th, we should expect a good time to short..... thoughts?

 

[BaronMatrix]

Well, according to Mercury Research AMD got back almost all of the share they lost in Q1.

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2164282,00.asp

 

[pug_s]

Fortunately, Intel's weakness is the terrible integrated graphics chips area and thus doesn't have a firm hold of the low end area. Amd's got very good integrated graphics from Nvidia's 70xx and AMD 690G whereas Intel 3100g is terrible in 3d games. AMD also got a good foothold on the media pc space where AMD has a cheap pc with an HDMI interface. However, Intel has increased hiring on its graphics division and hopfully fight off AMD in the low end. Let's see what Intel can do from their end.

Most agree that AMD's current problem is their debt. They spent billions of dollars on building and upgrading their existing fabs. They should either sell off their fabs and outsource the production of processors and chipsets to Charter or tsmc. Another possibility is to be taken over by a big company like Samsung or IBM who has alot of cash and manufacturering facilities ready.

Hopefully, in a few years, we will see the fruits of labor as a result of the AMD/ATI merger such as chipsets and processors for the UMPC, pda's, game consoles, media pc's, cell phones, etc...

 

[YO_KID37]

AMD K10 Poem.

Three CPUs for the 7/11 under the sky,
Seven for the CPU Engineers in their halls of stone(CPU Fab),
Nine for Mortal Men doomed to die(For Breaking NDA),
One for the Dark Lord(Dr. Héctor Ruiz) on his dark throne
In the Land of America where the Shadows lie.
One CPU to rule them all, One CPU to find them,
One CPU to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
In the Land of America where the (Barcelonas) lie

Have Faith,

Release could be @

11:10am , 09/08/07

Or

12:11:10 , 09/08/07

Either way it should be this month. (Rock or Paper)

 

[YO_KID37]

Well how ever I think Release is on 10/08/07
K10 - K8 - K7Pattern ?

 

[dragonsprayer]

AMD continues to slide - not good - the intel buy amd short gave up another $30 bucks today - lucky guess

wow did this thread deteriate by my own hands.

ok back to biz ----

just got my G0 q6600 still no barcie (AMD READ THIS: YOU SHOULD HAVE MADE A FAKE QUAD CORE LIKE INTEL WHILE U MADE YOUR "REAL QUAD CORE") - i was in not rush - this is not good for amd! i be firing it up tonight in various mobos - asus p5k delux, 650i and 680i

 

[weskurtz81]

AMD did slide, but, she finished the day on a positive note. She did break down to a new low, but, I think people saw that as a good time to buy, and they pushed it back up to only .08 below open. I think tomorrow you will see AMD stock turning green again.