AMD growing in China

[BaronMatrix]

Our favorite rag the Inq has a story from chinadaily.com saying that AMD is slowly eating away at Intel's share in the largest market in the world. It is said that they now have 28% of the entire market and more than 50% of retail. If this keeps up Hector will get his 30% by the end of the year.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-09/06/content_6086152.htm

 

[dobby]

well isnt that nice, considdering they used to have a majority toatal mrket share, i could careless. also your mouth is digusting i can see why you would have 1 or 2 pirecings but really.

 

[uk_gangsta]

well isnt that nice, considdering they used to have a majority toatal mrket share, i could careless. also your mouth is digusting i can see why you would have 1 or 2 pirecings but really.

bloody intel fanboy ^^^

 

[Mousemonkey]

bloody intel fanboy ^^^

What gives you that idea, the bad spelling, the attitude or the avatar. :lol:

 

[turpit]

well isnt that nice, considdering they used to have a majority toatal mrket share, i could careless. also your mouth is digusting i can see why you would have 1 or 2 pirecings but really.

Where, precisely are you getting your numbers from?

AMD never had a "majority" of the total market. Ever. At their highest share, in Q406, they held only 25.3% of the total market


@ Baron

Our favorite rag the Inq has a story from chinadaily.com saying that AMD is slowly eating away at Intel's share in the largest market in the world. It is said that they now have 28% of the entire market and more than 50% of retail. If this keeps up Hector will get his 30% by the end of the year.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-09/06/content_6086152.htm

And the rest of the facts, which you didnt bother to mention...If AMD achieves Hectors goal of 30% of the overall market, AMD will go bankrupt. At their current margins, AMD needs to achieve over 50% of the total market to reverse their cash loss.


BTW, are you ever planing on answering the 5 questions, or are you just going to keep blowing them off/applying non-informative responses?

1) Which set of numbers, the second set with the mecury chart, or the third set that came after the cart?
2) Why did you really stop posting? and the answer is not 'because we all make you sick'.
3) What part of the response is 'pissed off'?
4) If we 'all make you sick' then why are you still posting here?
5) What, exactly, is this "joke" to which you refer?

http://www.tomshardware.com/forum/244751-28-attack-logos

 

[Mousemonkey]

turpit I hope you never decide to sink your teeth into my butt , because getting a pitbull to let go would be easier. :lol:

 

[yomamafor1]

@ turpit

....unless AMD can manage to raise their ASP. However, judging from all leaked sources, Barcelona is not going to live up to AMD's claim several months ago. Also, judging from Barcelona's pricing, I wonder what is the margin on the processors.

AMD needs to get some revenue, before they can start pumping out B2 revision.

 

[yomamafor1]

BTW, are you ever planing on answering the 5 questions, or are you just going to keep blowing them off/applying non-informative responses?

1) Which set of numbers, the second set with the mecury chart, or the third set that came after the cart?
2) Why did you really stop posting? and the answer is not 'because we all make you sick'.
3) What part of the response is 'pissed off'?
4) If we 'all make you sick' then why are you still posting here?
5) What, exactly, is this "joke" to which you refer?

http://www.tomshardware.com/forum/244751-28-attack-logos

C'mon, he's BM. You can't expect that from him.

 

[turpit]

@ turpit

....unless AMD can manage to raise their ASP. However, judging from all leaked sources, Barcelona is not going to live up to AMD's claim several months ago. Also, judging from Barcelona's pricing, I wonder what is the margin on the processors.

AMD needs to get some revenue, before they can start pumping out B2 revision.

Precisely!!!

There have been some numbers floating around, and they dont look too promising IRT AMD getting their ASPs up. For the moment, they are just so much more rumour, but if they turn out to be accurate, then things dont look that rosy, and AMD lacks the capacity to produce enough to turn the tide through volume at their current margins. K10 has to perform well enough for them set their own terms on pricing, raising ASPs. So much of AMDs future prospects hinge on this one product that its scary.

 

[piesquared]

There are also rumors floating around that yields are >90%.

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

Turpit, your so full of it. I remember when AMD only had 10%, they did just fine. They are completely happy being number 2 and they arent going anywhere no matter what the share is. Besides by next year they will be in at least 6 new market that they arent in now including cel phones. They are gaining shares in other markets than cpu's and graphics.
They will be gaining cpu and graphics shares in all countries soon because Intel has already been implicated by seval courts for monopolizing the market by paying OEM"S and system vendors to NOT sell AMD products so they can gain shares. Now that they arent doing this anymore, AMD will gain shares in countries like asia. Not only that they are very likely those courts are going to order Intel to pay AMD gobs of cash.

Listen here Bytch (sorry, had to say it), you need to see past your fanboy bias.

AMD, with it's increased market share is loosing half a freaking billion dollars a quarter. Also, even if Intel is found guilty (and in several cases they should be) it will be a while before AMD sees a dime. Senior shares anyone? Not a good sign.

 

[ryanthesav]

geeeese are we still talking about this

 

[yomamafor1]

There are also rumors floating around that yields are >90%.

Although I doubt it, given the complexity of Barcelona's architecture, and AMD's imperfect 65nm process, it would be really nice to hear if they have actually good yield on Barcelona.

However, even if they have good yield, if they can't increase their margin, they're still going to be posting losses.

 

[yomamafor1]

Now Im a fanboy, fanboy? And Im a fanboy of what? You know what system Im running right?
And for you information, Intel has been found guilty by more than one court in more than one country. Where have you been?

Having an Intel system won't vindicate you, mind you.

TC is not arguing for Intel's innocence, but rather, he points out that it will take years for AMD to collect the money, if Intel has been ruled against.

At the rate they're losing money, they be out of business by next year.

DELETED.

 

[hypercube]

When 6000+ 's price lower to 1495 rmb,memory chinese include me bought it,and now its 1380 only,6400+ is 1560

 

[piesquared]

Although I doubt it, given the complexity of Barcelona's architecture, and AMD's imperfect 65nm process, it would be really nice to hear if they have actually good yield on Barcelona.

However, even if they have good yield, if they can't increase their margin, they're still going to be posting losses.

You haven't seen AMD's 65nm process on any other silicon than K8. Also, higher yields = higher margins no matter how you look at it.

 

[yomamafor1]

DELETED
Right now my brain is telling DELETED if you think AMD will be outta business by next year. LOL.
Thats the funniest DELETED Ive heard from a noob in a long time.
I was selling AMD cpu's back in 1994 and we sold 1 to every 10 Intel cpu's. AMD was content with being number 2 then and they are content with being number 2 now. The only difference is now they are selling 3-4 AMD cpu's to every Intel cpu. DELETED.

Selling more AMD CPU doesn't mean they'll make more money, especially when they're selling them at razor thin margin. As I said before, ASP means a lot more than unit of sell.

If you look at their financial statement, their revenue goes up, but profit goes down. What does that say to you?

And FYI, AMD might be content with being No.2 before, but not with Hector at the helm. For years now he tried to poise AMD as No.1, hence all the "40% performance gain", "capture 30% of market" talk.

How can a fanboy like you not know this?

 

[yomamafor1]

Who's talking about how long it will take to collect?? FAct is Intel cheats, they play dirty, and they will pay. Period.

When? After AMD goes belly up?

 

[Scotteq]

\popcorn

 

[yomamafor1]

You haven't seen AMD's 65nm process on any other silicon than K8.

True, but from IBM and AMD's published paper on their process, it would need a major change in their process to improve their yield. So far, I haven't seen any huge improvement in their process.

Another clue from AMD is their 3.0Ghz Barcelona. We'll put the validity of such processor aside, assuming it existed. If AMD can churn out 3~5 Barcelona clocked at 3.0Ghz, how come they didn't update their roadmap to reflect this major improvement? It can possibly be that they tweaked the process to produce the highest bin, but at extremely low yield rate.

This is just one scenario, and I'm open to all suggestion.

Also, higher yields = higher margins no matter how you look at it.

Also true. However, if AMD continued to push them into value segment, chances are that they're not going to make a lot from it. But it beats having a lower yield, and push them into value segment.

 

[TechnologyCoordinator]

Bytch, you're not listening, err... reading. I told you that I think Intel is guilty is several cases. However, what's the first thing you do when you lose a case? You start the appeal process.

My point, it will probably be a while before AMD sees a dime. In the meantime, AMD is bleeding, and bleeding hard. Barcelona gives hope to AMD, but we don't know whether it will be AMD's savior because they don't want anyone benching it and throw NDA's all over the place.

It will still be until probably sometime in 1H/1Q of next year that we see Barcy on the desktop. Scary stuff when you're losing .5 Billion a quarter and had your credit go to poop.

 

[yomamafor1]

Bytch, you're not listening, err... reading. I told you that I think Intel is guilty is several cases. However, what's the first thing you do when you lose a case? You start the appeal process.

My point, it will probably be a while before AMD sees a dime. In the meantime, AMD is bleeding, and bleeding hard. Barcelona gives hope to AMD, but we don't know whether it will be AMD's savior because they don't want anyone benching it and throw NDA's all over the place.

It will still be until probably sometime in 1H/1Q of next year that we see Barcy on the desktop. Scary stuff when you're losing .5 Billion a quarter and had your credit go to poop.

Analysts had already downgraded AMD's senior note rating to CCC+... which is well below invest-able.

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2007-04/artikel-8121942.asp

Fitch has downgraded the 7.75% senior notes due 2014 to 'CCC+/RR6' from 'BB-/RR2', due to potential loss of security and lower recovery prospects, as the indenture and collateral trust agreement permit AMD to remove the collateral securing this tranche of debt.

And it has only been only one year since Conroe's debut...

 

[Mousemonkey]

Another clue from AMD is their 3.0Ghz Barcelona. We'll put the validity of such processor aside, assuming it existed.

But we've seen pictures and slide shows.

 

[pausert20]

Bytch, you're not listening, err... reading. I told you that I think Intel is guilty is several cases. However, what's the first thing you do when you lose a case? You start the appeal process.

My point, it will probably be a while before AMD sees a dime. In the meantime, AMD is bleeding, and bleeding hard. Barcelona gives hope to AMD, but we don't know whether it will be AMD's savior because they don't want anyone benching it and throw NDA's all over the place.

It will still be until probably sometime in 1H/1Q of next year that we see Barcy on the desktop. Scary stuff when you're losing .5 Billion a quarter and had your credit go to poop.

Has everyone forgotten how much larger the die size of the Barcelona is? At the 65nm design rule it is said to be 283mm^2. So for their dual core version it should be about ~141mm^2 now compare that with the 45nm Wolfdale of ~107mm^2 or Intel's Quad Core Yorkfield of ~214mm^2.

Who can produce more per wafer Intel or AMD at their production design rules? Also, don't forget how Intel uses 2 of the 107mm^2 processor cores to make their Quad core.

I will state this... If AMD try's to compete against Intel 45nm Quad cores they will quickly be at capacity at their Fab 36 and still keep falling behind Intel.

They can only do 2 things to try to stay competitive. Limit production of their Barcelona Quad core and produce mostly dual cores. And they have to get almost 100% yield from every wafer that goes through the Fab.

The other is to move to 45nm process technology because if they don't just from a manufacturing standpoint they will not be able to supply the necessary volume of parts to stay in business against Intel.

And don't get me started on Intel's new Silverthorne processor. They are supposed to get 2500 die per wafer for a max theoretical 100% yield. I see these going into ultra mobile devices including laptops. AMD has nothing to compete against these at all.

 

[yomamafor1]

Im laughing so hard listening to ignorance of computer nerds that think they know corporate finance. Please.......AMD walked all over Intel for 3 years straight and now they have had a bad year everyone says there done. LOL. You guys are gonna look so stupid when you see your soo wrong.

Like-wise, sir, like-wise...