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Conspiracy theory # 5674

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September 9, 2007 7:06:03 PM

For the sake of argument, lets say the numbers from IBMs Spec2006 PDF are real, and clock for clock Barcelona underperforms Cloverton in Interger by 7%, but inchs by in FP @ 0.6%

Assuming thats true (and of course that AMD is well aware of it) with the release of Barcelona set for tommorrow, there will be no way to hide Barcelonas actual performance anymore. With that in mind, (again, assuming the numbers are accurate) AMD must have considered a negative reaction to Barcelonas performance in the stock market.

*****Conspiracy Theory*****
What if AMD had IBM deliberately leak those scores this weekend? This would get the news to investors during a 48hr-ish period when they could not react and sell off stock. AMD might be hopng that during this period of time investors would have a chance to digest the info, calm down a bit and think things through.....and that this 'cooling period' would prevent the stocks from taking a nose dive tommorrow. Or at least minimize the fall. Again, thats assuming (and thats a BIG assumption) that IBMs Spec2006 numbers are accurate

Does it hold water, or not?

More about : conspiracy theory 5674

September 9, 2007 8:30:33 PM

Hmmm....

Well, I am taking all the "leaked" benchmarks with grains of salt, of course. With only 1 day before the launch, I don't know if leaking a SPEC request is going to do much.

Investors don't really think, more react. I don't think they are studying the SPEC pdf for insider information, imo. They will react on Monday, like the rest of the population, when the launch begins.

Again, you do have a point, but unfortunately, I don't think it holds water.
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a b À AMD
September 9, 2007 8:39:29 PM

Well it's back to the NDA's again really, because where are the investors going to be getting their information from?, if it is the same press that signed the very restrictive NDA's then they will only be getting to read what AMD want them to know. [:mousemonkey:1]
Related resources
September 9, 2007 9:00:09 PM

Yeah,

Its a big stretch, there is no doubt. But if the numbers are acurate (and it is IBM), then surely AMD must now be considering all the hype thats been surrounding Barcelona. Even discounting the fanboy notional hype, there were enough quotes from AMD sub-lackeys, providing ample amunition for the jounalist community to publically lambaste AMD for over inflating estimates (again, assuming IBMs numbers ar correct). If Barcelona really does barely out do Cloveton in FP and falls short in Int, IMO there is going to be a strong public reaction. Of course, I also think there is going to be a strong reaction if Barcelona smokes Cloverton.

I agree that this close to the release, leaking benchmarks (good or bad) isnt going to do much, but then AMD has managed to hold the numbers down so well for so long, why, at the last second, would the numbers leak? And of all the sources possible they could have leaked from, why from IBM, one of AMDs strongest partners, if not the strongest? Thats something that really doesnt add up for me.

Also, if these numbers are accurate, with the departure of Richard and Hegberg, it gives AMD the perfrect scapegoats. 'AMD never officially endorsed any press releases regarding Barcelonas performance. The information was premature and released soley at the discretion of former employees Henri Richard and Rick Hegberg, without authorization from Hector Ruiz or the Board of Directors. As such, AMD can not be held accountable for any inaccuracies contained in the premature releases'


Its a bent theory, I know, but looking at all the pieces on the board, I cant help but wonder.
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a b À AMD
September 9, 2007 9:12:57 PM

turpit said:
Its a bent theory, I know, but looking at all the pieces on the board, I cant help but wonder.

You and me both bud, but having been recently berated for postulating a "what if" scenario I am loathe to make any kind of suggestion as to what might happen over the next few days or weeks. But standing directly under the windows of any of AMD's top brass might not be a good idea. ;) 
September 9, 2007 9:23:09 PM

turpit said:
For the sake of argument, lets say the numbers from IBMs Spec2006 PDF are real, and clock for clock Barcelona underperforms Cloverton in Interger by 7%, but inchs by in FP @ 0.6%


Quite possible.

Two facts:
Those IBM numbers are real.
You dont "accidentally" leak explosive info like that on the eve on your biggest product launch in 4 years.
That PDF hasnt been pulled despite thousands (tens of thousands) of downloads by now.

I would say you theory has more than 50% chance of being correct.
September 9, 2007 9:53:57 PM

Wombat2 said:
Quite possible.

Two facts:
Those IBM numbers are real.
You dont "accidentally" leak explosive info like that on the eve on your biggest product launch in 4 years.
That PDF hasnt been pulled despite thousands (tens of thousands) of downloads by now.

I would say you theory has more than 50% chance of being correct.


Agree with Wombat...at least 50% chance. Also, agree 100% that having Henri and others gone give AMD the perfect scapegoat. There's just too many coincidental pieces of the puzzle floating around that all point to horrors come tomorrow's launch.
September 9, 2007 10:07:41 PM

Ahhhh, one can feel the tension in the air as those closer to the rare air of cutting technological understanding press thier noses to the glass in hopes of some glimpse of truth and factual information. It is moments such as these that those who walk closest to the enevitable, yet not quite fated result, taste life to it's fullest. The consumer?....he merely partakes of what is left over.
September 9, 2007 11:04:41 PM

I like to root for the underdog (e.g. why I recently opted specifically for an AMD laptop), but AMD will certainly deserve to be in hot water if the performance estimates indeed turn out grossly inflated.
September 9, 2007 11:09:09 PM

Best conspiracy ever!

LOL

I'm not even going to bother to try to think things through anymore. I just will wait until the Barcelona actually launches (that will happen after the paper launch is over) and see some benchies that aren't leaked but are REAL.
September 9, 2007 11:40:33 PM

That's a very good conspiracy theory. I think that you might be on to something with this. Why WOULD IBM leak numbers like this? If I were AMD and I realized what was going on, maybe I'd talk to one of my stong business partners and set up a deal like this so that people wouldn't think that it was planned. Companies don't play clean, especially AMD this year. I'm not saying Intel is clean, but AMD has been pretty downright dirty this year.

As for whether this holds water or not I don't know. If you think about what could happen if it was 'leaked' and what could happen if there was a huge disappointment come tomorrow, I think I'd opt to try the leaked. What more can you lose? They really can't lose much more having the numbers be leaked. Will they be able to avoid the investor frenzy come tomorrow morning? I don't think so. The leak might(and they're probably hoping for it) help their stocks not drop alot more, but it certainly can't make things much worse.

The only way I can see that this conspiracy would be debunked is if AMD slams down on IBM hardcore. I don't think AMD would do that if they wanted to because they are vulnerable right now as it is. No need to pour salt on the wounds AMD is bleeding from.
September 9, 2007 11:40:35 PM

TechnologyCoordinator said:
Best conspiracy ever!

LOL

I'm not even going to bother to try to think things through anymore. I just will wait until the Barcelona actually launches (that will happen after the paper launch is over) and see some benchies that aren't leaked but are REAL.


Yeah, I think I'm at that point now too...just plain worn out. :wahoo: 
September 10, 2007 12:36:54 AM

I can't believe how well the benchmarks were kept secret. Launches tomorrow and nobody saw a leaked benchmark of a launch chip yet. Amazing. I agree, this must be to keep the chip from tanking the stock or something. If it was positive news, they would have "leaked" benchmarks and their stock would have grown. Lets see how their stock performs over the next week...
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September 10, 2007 12:50:18 AM

I don't know...it's weird...I did a search on IBM's site to find the document linked in the other thread and there was no x3455 server benchmarks newer than April 10, 2007. I could not find the results at the SPEC cpu2006 website either.

It seems a little funny that the only way to get the IBM benchmark results is by using the link in the other thread.

Someone please go directly to IBM's or SPECcpu's site and see if they can search and find the same benchmark document that is linked in the other thread. I be curious to know what you find and how you searched or what links you followed to find the barcelona benchmarks results.

Does Wombat work for IBM or does he have the ability to link to a document that isn't available on the public site?
September 10, 2007 2:04:23 AM

What is a bit more disturbing about this "leaked" conspiracy pdf is the availability date. Planned availability for November 16th?

And it's for the 1.9GHz system, not the 2GHz. When will the 2GHz be available then?

@chunkymonster - scores won't be in SPEC orgs database, only because I believe they are scores that are being submitted on the 10th (probably). I went through the ftp.software.ibm link, and there is a lot more than just SPEC benchmarks there. There are 5 pdf files for the x3455 setup, one dated 8/15/2006, with a planned release date of 29th Sept. 2006. Unless someone set this up as an elaborate hoax, it looks pretty legit.

x3455 8/15/2006 PDF
September 10, 2007 3:07:36 AM

Who knows.Only AMD now,the world tomorrow.
September 10, 2007 3:50:21 AM

chunky,

google "IBM FTP" and you will see where they should be. So far though I have not been able to locate them either. See if you can find them in there.
September 10, 2007 3:51:44 AM

NMDante said:
What is a bit more disturbing about this "leaked" conspiracy pdf is the availability date. Planned availability for November 16th?

And it's for the 1.9GHz system, not the 2GHz. When will the 2GHz be available then?

@chunkymonster - scores won't be in SPEC orgs database, only because I believe they are scores that are being submitted on the 10th (probably). I went through the ftp.software.ibm link, and there is a lot more than just SPEC benchmarks there. There are 5 pdf files for the x3455 setup, one dated 8/15/2006, with a planned release date of 29th Sept. 2006. Unless someone set this up as an elaborate hoax, it looks pretty legit.

x3455 8/15/2006 PDF


@Dante

Well, if there are numerous scores for multiple processors with a spread spectrum of release dates, perhaps an over eager employee was just trying to get their ducks in a row for the remainder of the years Spec result releases. Which would make a whole lot more sence than my theory. Not as much fun as my theory, but seems more probable. I know I like to front load paper work as much as possible and have it ready to go at a moments notice.

@Wombat, Bixplus & Cyberjock..

I just keep coming around to how could AMD have kept everything hush hush for so long, with all those NDA's, only for IBM to drop the ball and let info leak...at the last second. And it is IBM we're talking about here....not 'Billy Joe Bobs House-O-puting and bait shop'. If anyone out there knows the importance of keeping industrial secrets, its IBM. And Henri jumping ship just before the launch? All his rhetoric and hot air over the past year, and he bails on the 'eve of his 'triumph' '? Something is up, good or bad, something has to be up....just too many coincidences.

I agree with Cyberjock on a reaction from AMD, then again, the release is tommorrow....a convienient coincidense. AMD could easily say something like:
'well, no point in getting upset over spilled milk, it was only 2 days, and that over a weekend, so no harm was done'
which would seem a perfectly plausible response, easily covering any possible scheming

There is also another possibility.....one that keeps with the fanboys thoery that AMD has been hiding numbers to keep Intel off balance. Perhaps AMD had IBM deliberately allow access to those numbers to keep everyone off balance until the last possible second, and come tommorrow it will turn out that Barcelona really is a C2D killer. Hey....it is possible...not likely, but possible.
September 10, 2007 3:53:47 AM

I am not finding the Sept based benchmarks in there. I am not saying they don't exist, just that I cannot locate them there.
September 10, 2007 4:08:40 AM

turpit said:
There is also another possibility.....one that keeps with the fanboys thoery that AMD has been hiding numbers to keep Intel off balance. Perhaps AMD had IBM deliberately allow access to those numbers to keep everyone off balance until the last possible second, and come tommorrow it will turn out that Barcelona really is a C2D killer. Hey....it is possible...not likely, but possible.


With some of the stuff I've been reading over the last few days, including the blowup with the journalist who walked out of an AMD show and tell because of too restrictive a NDA to sign, I doubt that this possibility is correct. I wouldn't trust AMD to tell the truth concerning Barcelona, but I would think the numbers out of IBM are true ones. The only way I see that this would look good for AMD is if someone at IBM published numbers of an early version of Barcelona and the reason the article got pulled is because someone over at IBM realized the mistake and killed it before too many people figured out their mistake.

Yeah, we will probably be finding out a lot in the next few days, so now we can can sit in our paranoia and wonder if we are being too pesimistic or not. And can anyone really answer the questions about Area 51 in southern Nevada? At least Barcelona will be known this week, one way or the other, unless AMD delays it yet again.
September 10, 2007 4:16:07 AM

sailer,

if the article was pulled we should not be able to link to it still. I can go back to the other thread and still pull it up.
ftp://ftp.software.ibm.com/eserver/benchmarks/news/news...

As far as the NDA, the article said they never signed it. The only one they signed was for the confidential information from the factory tour.

I am sorry I cannot comment on what is or isn't known as Area 51.
September 10, 2007 4:35:40 AM

Perhaps I misunderstood something while I was reading, and I know I was distracted by a telephone call during that time so its possible, but from what I got, the article was posted, but then chunky, weskurtz and others weren't able to pull them up. Your link did work for me, so that link exists. Another thing that seemed odd to me was that the link that NMDante posted was from 2006, not 2007, so that's a full year off base. It makes me wonder if someone out there is hacking things and trying to fool people around the world, including us. Last of the suspicious things I see, the link you posted is for Sept 10, 2007. At least where I live, its still Sept 9 and will be for a few hours. Its only Sept 10 on the other side of the international date line, and then by only a few hours. So the article may be true from IBM, but it could also be a hoax or something. Don't know about that. Still in the next few days there should be plenty of information coming out about Barcelona and we won't have to speculate on it.

As for Area 51, that's on an Air Force base and has been subject to conspiracy theorists for decades as to what is there. Some claim there are spaceships, aliens, and other such stuff hidden away there. Others believe its nothing but a base where secret aircraft projects are researched. I made reference to it in jest, nothing more.
September 10, 2007 4:49:03 AM

sailer said:
And can anyone really answer the questions about Area 51 in southern Nevada?



There is no such thing as area 51....

There is no such thing as area 51....

There is no such thing as area 51....
September 10, 2007 4:57:55 AM

I know, I was trying to make a play off that but apparently it was a little dry. As far as the date is concerned, IBM could date it Sept. 10 because they have locations around the globe.

Now, you speak of us not being able to pull it up. I can use the supplied link, but when I go to the place it should be stored I am not able to find anything close to it. I find a ton of other benchmarks but I cannot find this one. Also, the benchmark I find for the X3455 is this one.
ftp://ftp.software.ibm.com/eserver/benchmarks/news/news...

Just go here and check it out.

http://www-03.ibm.com/servers/eserver/xseries/benchmark...
September 10, 2007 5:13:05 AM

Ok, now I understand your Area 51 reference. Guess I'm used to a fair number of people from other countries on the forums and I just thought maybe you really didn't know what it was.

Yeah, with the two additional links you provided, it looks like there are differing days as to the posting of the X3455 benchmark. That's what's got me wondering if someone took an earlier benchmark and then changed the date on it to Sept 10, 2007, rather than the April 10, 2007 date also given. If the true date is April 10, 2007, then the Barcelona from that time would be an engineering sample which could well be slower than the retail version which is supposed to be coming out now. Again, I don't know what's real and what isn't. I realize that IBM has locations around the globe, but since they are headquartered in the USA, I assumed that they would use the headquarters to base their announcements. Then again, I could very well be wrong. Assumptions have a way of being wrong from time to time.
September 10, 2007 5:45:32 AM

Ok, to be honest, this looks better than what I was beginning to expect. With some more time and develpement, Barcelona/Phenom may be very good for AMD. At least I can now put some hope up, instead of just empty dreams. The next few days should provide some good reading. Getting late here, so will be heading to bed now.
September 10, 2007 5:49:42 AM

sailer said:
Ok, to be honest, this looks better than what I was beginning to expect. With some more time and develpement, Barcelona/Phenom may be very good for AMD. At least I can now put some hope up, instead of just empty dreams. The next few days should provide some good reading. Getting late here, so will be heading to bed now.



Dunno, a 15% improvement over K8 puts Barcelona 3% behind C2D, and 8~13% behind Penryn (if those benchmarks are to be trusted) It doesnt look great unless AMD really undersells the Clovertons, and that wont help their margins....
September 10, 2007 7:59:26 AM



Conspiracy theory # 5675

Is it me or is Tom's Hardware removing more and more threads with each hour? I throw shortcuts on my desktop and try to come back the next day and the thread is gone. I search for text, notta. I look at my list of posts, there's nothing there. What is the deal with SO many threads being canned lately? As of right now the top link doesn't work anymore. Is this a typo or an attempt for TH to try to cover something up? I'm getting more and more skeptical of TH with the number of threads I'm finding that just 'disappear'. This place shouldn't have to be modded. Of particular interest to me was a thread about where some people went. People mentioned a few names, and others replied that they went 'elsewhere', but wouldn't list that special place(for some reason). I asked why would TH care if someone says they went to 'www.loonycomputers.com' or not, and now the thread is GONE! Someone needs to stop and figure out what is going on and TH needs to step up to the plate and explain why they delete threads when there's 30+ posts in them.

They deleted an article at the end of last year about DVD consoles versus DVD decoding via NVidia and ATI. There was alot of complaints that the article wasn't completely thorough. I agreed that it wasn't thorough, but it was good for showing a few friends about the in's and out's of DVD players. Suddenly, the article is gone. Nowhere to be found. The article in the forum of people saying it sucked.. gone too! This kind of thing makes me feel like we are actually part of a communist forum and awaiting our masters to tell us what to do next.

I tried searching around for a 'guide' as to what should and shouldn't be discussed on TH forums. I really couldn't find anything. There's obvious things that shouldn't be discussed. But WHY delete threads that have lots of comments-both good and bad? I am wondering if TH is trying to cover up something because I think this is the 4th thread today alone that has suddenly gone poof.
September 10, 2007 8:26:24 AM

cyberjock said:
Conspiracy theory # 5675

Is it me or is Tom's Hardware removing more and more threads with each hour? I throw shortcuts on my desktop and try to come back the next day and the thread is gone. I search for text, notta. I look at my list of posts, there's nothing there. What is the deal with SO many threads being canned lately? As of right now the top link doesn't work anymore. Is this a typo or an attempt for TH to try to cover something up? I'm getting more and more skeptical of TH with the number of threads I'm finding that just 'disappear'. This place shouldn't have to be modded. Of particular interest to me was a thread about where some people went. People mentioned a few names, and others replied that they went 'elsewhere', but wouldn't list that special place(for some reason). I asked why would TH care if someone says they went to 'www.loonycomputers.com' or not, and now the thread is GONE! Someone needs to stop and figure out what is going on and TH needs to step up to the plate and explain why they delete threads when there's 30+ posts in them.

They deleted an article at the end of last year about DVD consoles versus DVD decoding via NVidia and ATI. There was alot of complaints that the article wasn't completely thorough. I agreed that it wasn't thorough, but it was good for showing a few friends about the in's and out's of DVD players. Suddenly, the article is gone. Nowhere to be found. The article in the forum of people saying it sucked.. gone too! This kind of thing makes me feel like we are actually part of a communist forum and awaiting our masters to tell us what to do next.

I tried searching around for a 'guide' as to what should and shouldn't be discussed on TH forums. I really couldn't find anything. There's obvious things that shouldn't be discussed. But WHY delete threads that have lots of comments-both good and bad? I am wondering if TH is trying to cover up something because I think this is the 4th thread today alone that has suddenly gone poof.



Well, the first one you linked to, I merged with Bixplus's as they were the same. The second one (Bixplus's) is still there.

Your're prolly seeing merges...if there are 2 threads concerning the identical topic i.e. Anand's Barcelona benchmarks, I will merge them. The posts in the threads dont go away, they just go into one thread, titled after the first thread posted.
On other stuff, if there is any hint of anything illegal, like cracking, hacking, copyright violation (ripping VOBs) keygens, those threads will get locked or deleted. But for the most part, its frowned upon to delete threads. Finally, if a thread turns into a nothing but a series of personal attacks, then it may get deleted. Depends on who sees it.

Posts are another story. I will normally just edit, but if a post is really bad, nothing but paragraphs of "you're a mutherf**** moron" etc, I'll just delete it.

And then there's finally the move. If someone posts a cpu thread in the graphics section, or a video card post in this section, we may or may not move it to the appropriate section. Depends on how off topic it is and how motivated we are.


As to what you can post....Toms is usually pretty liberal.....you can post pretty much anything, god knows there are enough sections nowadays. Just post it in the right section, dont dupe a pre-existing-current thread, and dont swear. Also no pimping or advertising.


There have been a lot of people complaining about deterioration of the forum, so Ive been trying to keep it clean but let the debates rage ( as long as they dont turn to name calling or "your mutha" stuff) without geting overly heavy handed
September 10, 2007 4:19:48 PM

Thanks for the info Turpit. I'm glad to know how TH is supposed to be run. There should be something on the forum telling us what to expect. The reasons posts get locked or deleted makes sense to me, but the merging and moving is something I didn't think about. I know for most of the threads I was referring to I could not find my post at all, so I'm not sure what exactly happened. I can't imagine my posts being any of those that would get locked, edited, or deleted.

-Cyberjock
September 10, 2007 5:10:44 PM

turpit said:
Dunno, a 15% improvement over K8 puts Barcelona 3% behind C2D, and 8~13% behind Penryn (if those benchmarks are to be trusted) It doesnt look great unless AMD really undersells the Clovertons, and that wont help their margins....


Perhaps I should have put more emphasis on the "hope" part. It was getting to be a very long day and I was tired. At least Barcelona is an improvement over K8. I hope that a new chipset/motherboard will help the Barcy/Phenom chips. If price can be held at a competitve level, then AMD has a hope of being able to sell a few of these things. And if AMD can get the clock speeds up, perhaps even as fast as 3 ghz, then we can see some real performance improvements. That leaves me also wondering about overclocking possibilites, which remain unanswered at the moment.

Ok, lots of hopes and speculations. At worst, for people devoted to AMD, they can know that K10 does really outperform K8. At best, with new chipsets, faster speeds through factory or overclocking, it may challenge C2D and Penryn. Can't answer that yet. Now we just sit back and wait for more, better reviews and find out if this is for real or just a paper launch.
September 10, 2007 5:26:15 PM

K10 is roughly equal to Conroe. AMD will improve K10 performance over the coming months so they might be able to close the gap to Penryn.
September 10, 2007 5:41:25 PM

Well, if people will believe in the whole 9/11 conspiracy thing I suppose AMD could try to pull a stunt like this.
September 10, 2007 6:37:29 PM

rodney_ws said:
Well, if people will believe in the whole 9/11 conspiracy thing I suppose AMD could try to pull a stunt like this.



Yeah,

There are a million possibilites, and this one is stretching it. But, with all the stunts AMD pulled this year, anything is possible. This falls into the catagory of cant be proved, but cant be disproved either. I wouldnt believe it even remotely possible except for the stunts, and even so, I think its still pretty remote.
September 16, 2007 9:46:22 AM

Proof...is like beauty, seen only by the eyes of the beholder.

Some wish to believe a certain way for it fills agenda, while others tend to be more objective. Of the two, objectivety would seem better.
!