Blu-rays HD-Format Victory Could Be Short. Download HD movies? uhh lol

Well, people are already encoding movies at HD-DVD resolution at a fraction of the file size.......  

Lol, that's the same as DIVX vs DVD. We are talking quality difference here.   You don't buy a HD television for reduced quality. You would be wanting the best instead.

Well, nowadays you'll see Blu-ray roms emerge that cost you around 100 euro's.
The LCD's are also becomming more payable these days.
Prices are dropping and people will be starting to buy the medium not only for media purposes but also as a great backup medium. One disc (rewritable or not) costs you little money for what you get in return.

I've read that the download speeds from 100mbit and above all depend on the distance you live from the nearby station. This speed account could even end up to half (or worse) of the speed you've actually accounted. It's one great example of the bandwidth problems we are allready facing today.
Would be nice to see this being solved but that's far away from happening as the cables have their limits.
If everyone jumps on this 100mbit (and over) train the bandwidth on The Internet will decrease dramaticly and we'll all be suffering low download speeds. By that time downloading a great quality HD movie of over 20 GB will be a problem.

It's not so much about downloading the movie as it is about a video on demand service (VOD).

AT&T's U-Verse service and Comcast's cable are both on the verge of making this a reality. While Blue-Ray movies are known for their quality, they are MPEG-2 encoded, and therefore use ~20GB or so of space on the disc at data rates up to 20 Mbps.

But with MPEG-4 encoding, you can reduce the average data rate to 8 Mbps or so with no discernible loss in quality, provided that good encoders are used. This data rate is within the real bandwidths that are becoming available to the consumer (not the advertised bandwidths).

I currently have AT&T's U-Verse service, which is an IPTV-based service. The main gateway box in my house (the residential gateway, or RG) connects with a local fiber node that serves the neighborhood (the VDSL residential access device, or VRAD). The connection between the two is over ordinary phone lines, the sync rate is 25 Mbps. Of that 25 Mbps, 0.5 Mbps is reserved for voice over IP (VOIP) to run your phones, 14.5 Mbps runs all television services (IPTV), and 10 Mbps is reserved for your Internet access. You connect all your set-top boxes (STBs) via Cat5 network cable to the RG (coax using HPNA can also be used).

AT&T is already offering several video on demand movies that are available directly through the STBs - just order via your remote. Some of the VOD movies are free.

The AT&T network that delivers this content is a private, fiber-based network - the movies and TV services do not come over the Internet. This enables AT&T to carefully control the bandwidth and the QOS on their network, enabling higher utilization without bottlenecks.

Since I can begin watching a VOD movie immediately, there is no download wait. The movie just streams from the headend, and as long as the movie data rate is within the IPTV allocated bandwidth there is no need to "download" the movie.

The point here is that if AT&T builds a huge library of HD VOD movies (there are few right now, but they're adding to it), then I have no need whatsoever for a Blue-Ray player. The player and the movie rental store just became buttons on the remote.

The adoption of such technology by the consumer is going to heavily depend on the pricing model. I'm not sure the consumer is going to stand for having to pay a viewing fee every time a movie is viewed. It flies in the face of the previous models, where you can play a movie you "own" as much as you want. Consumers might pay for new releases (like current PPV offerings), but for older movies, the viewings should essentially be free with the subscription to the overall service, or possibly be ad-supported with a product ad or new release preview at the beginning of the film.

This kind of VOD technology has the power to bury all disc-based services - including physical disc sales (like Blue-Ray) as well as disc rentals (like Netflix). Both AT&T and Comcast are absolutely dumping truckloads full of money into this technology, and they're completely betting the farm on it. I would not at all be surprised if Blue-Ray doesn't eventually fizzle out due to low demand.

What about lossless audio? theres more to a blu-ray than just the video.

I agree it's a very nice development but what I'd rather like to hear from you is your vision on the bandwidth matter.
We both agree you'll need a fast Internet account being able to stream HD quality, right? Well, this is where the whole problem lies. The idea is good but if you know how many people are watching movies it will be more a question wether it will be possible.
Unless you think the IT specialists are wrong with predicting this problem offcourse.

Well, think again. If everybody is going to enjoy new fast Internet accounts we WILL have a problem. I'll post you a link now from one of the founders of The Internet.

http://blog.wired.com/monkeybites/2007/09/vint-cert-on-...

So what movie takes up 20GB? ha maybe encoded in MPEG2...

The problem with all of your assumptions is that you assume the internet will not change. Ever heard the expression "If you build it, they will come"? well in this case... as with all business's... if there is demand, they will supply it. Of course ISPs will be kicking and screaming... but thats the beauty of free market. Demand, and competition WILL bring major changes to the internet.

And as for bluray... I certainly hope that it dies out. Its one of the worst mediums that has ever been released.

All my assumptions?  
You hope Blu-ray will die as soon as possible? I'm sure in proud America it will (poor HD DVD   ). But not in Europe and the rest of the world. They can even use Blu-ray as if they were using their DVD's as backup medium as prices will drop in the near future. We've seen it happen with DVD and we will see it happen again.
Sure there comes a time (Neil Young sang about it) when they will solve this bandwidth problem.
The same counts for cancer and some other awefull diseases.
Still, the problem usually won't go away that quickly as you are presuming.
You think it's like they just rip open all the streets in every city world wide to lay down some new vibre cables that can handle the bandwidth stress when this time comes?
Please, don't make me laugh. Allthough it's healthy.  

If flash media continues to drop it will be more affordable and overall better than blu-ray for storage and backup concerns, also cost per gigabyte in hdd's is getting so low that it makes more since to get a home server and keep all your movies backed up on that.