AMD Earnings Announcement Today - after markets close


Predictions?


I predict more loses measured in the hundreds of millions due to:

- Barcelona Delays (they won't really see any revenue for Barcy at all)
- Aggressive pricing
- Failure to beat the 8800 (nVidia has been able to milk their 8800 line for many months now)
- Struggling 65nm process


AMD opened at 14.02 today, we'll have to see what it does tomorrow morning (announcement is after close of market, so price won't adjust until tomorrow morning)

The price already has a huge loss figured into it, so if the loss is greater than expected the price will drop, however, if the loss is less than expected, the price will rise.

I would expect in the range of 350 million loss. They should benefit from the shipping of R600, as well as the global surging demand. We shall see though.

I wouldn't expect Barcelona to contribute much to AMD's financial, as it is still in limited quantities. Hector once said Barcelona won't make a difference until Q108.

I was also thinking somewhere in the (400M) to (300M) range as well. I feel that they really need to cut these loses in 2Q08, or they're in deep. 2Q08 will be there first full quarter of Barcelona available for Desktop and Server.

$300-400M loss.
They should have regain some from paying back the MS loan, but product delays hurt them still.

AMD is looking like its nearing the end as a real competitor. Sad, really, because you know Intel will take a Microsoft type approach to releases and development. Less innovation and higher prices.

Not that AMD won't be around. But when 44nm process chips are in the works from Intel and AMD is struggling with 65nm... it's going to be a rough next few years for AMD.

AMD is in it for the long haul. Given the ATI buy-out and looking at the AMD roadmap, I wouldn't expect AMD to be pulling any kind of real profit until 2H08 or 1H09. It's good and bad that they can't meet the channel demand for Barcelona. According to recent reports, AMD has gained back some market share in last few quarters, we'll find out if that equates to actual dollars.

I agree with TC's notion that the loss won't be as bad as expected.

I'm kind of curious how much cash on hand they have left. That's what I'm more interested in. It's slightly confusing to sort through their junk bond announcements and how much they're losing. I guess I'll just wait for the balance sheet.

Amd is in big trouble:

HD2900XT, great stats and value but the heat issues are insane. Poor challenge to the Nvidia 8800 series.

Still won't have 65mm processors until late 08 or early 09, intels out shortly.

Enough said.

TC

They are clever over at AMD, they slow down to survive. All their financial moves are to bread-and-butter-it-if-need-be.

Just the 5Bn in investments that they repay in a few years is collecting them alot of interest for the time being.

They are looking at the Laptop space, where there is alot of growth.

I predict they break even, or show a VERY small profit.

These guys really know how to tighten their belts, so we'll see. They focus on the foundation first, with the purchase of ATI. With chipsets, graphics, native Quads, they play smart, and they don't like to operate with debts, and when they do, they only focus to get rid of debt. A very sage operating practice, that companies don't generally adhere to anymore.

If Phenom is competitive, and you can all use your overbuilt Opteron HSFs and buy chips without fans and heatsinks, I am sure most people who are AMD users now will build their next system with AMD again. I don't even feel like screwing around with Intel pushpins or anything, give me the lever anyday. I don't even have to remove my MB when upgrading processors and I love it, takes 5 mins.

I feel that's VERY optimistic, but no sense in arguing over it, we'll just wait a few hours and find out!

I would even dare to call numbers better than (300M) optimistic.

I could see (350M) to (250M) for 1Q08.

Perhaps (250M) to (100M) for 2Q08.

I agree with others, break even at the very best will be in 2H08.

Will AMD annouce K10 volume shipped to date?

I think they've sold more HD2000 graphics cards than the performance numbers merit. The 2400s and 2600s are actually more attractive to the entrance segment, as they don't have an external power connector, requiring nothing more than an X1050 does of your system, and that's still a 300 series gpu.

So, people who've bought long before aren't so intimidated that they buy a new system built around a more powerful (but more demanding) nVidia solution.

I know that if I bought my mother a graphics card, it would be an ATI. My friend who games at 800x600 I even recommended an HD2400 to, as it can perform fine at that level, and offers more features than the competitors.

But my point is that you don't have to have the best product to be profitable. You just have to have a good product that people know the name of. There's a reason the Gamecube, the Wii, and the XBox 360 have ATI labels somewhere (be it on their retail box or whatever).

True. However, we're basing our unprofitability estimate off of the last three quarters for AMD, all of which has losses of about half a billion (yes, billion with a b) dollars.

Only losing 350 million would actually be a very good improvement and a step in the right direction.

Intel's superior product is hurting AMD due to price/performance pricing that both companies are engaging in.

AMD's top of the line desktop processor sells in the $200 range, when their previous top of the line products sold for well over $1000. That's hurting them hard.

I'll take a guess of about a $340 million dollar loss for the third quarter.

Similar reasons as previously stated. Barcy isn't performing well, nor is widely circulated, leading to poor sales. Phenom/Agena/Kuma is late and may be delayed even further. The HD 2900 XT is not as good as first expected, despite better drivers. No upgraded card in sight; talked about, lots of rumors, but not in sight. And no one inside the company has bought any stock since James Fleck bought 25,000 shares on 11/29/06, thus showing a lack of confidence within the company itself.

Picture the AMD execs out on a street corner with tin cups calling out "A dime, a dime, anybody got a dime?"